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amugs

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amugs last won the day on May 23 2018

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  1. As we have all heard so far about low solar that is another good trend, but after last winter where we also had low solar I am taking that with a grain of salt for now. Mike, true and that was the beginning of the Grand Solar Minimum which will be the lowest in 200 yrs according our freinds at NASA, NOAA and other astrophysics scientist etc. We were still at the end of cycle 24 coming off a tremendous el nino and a solar max. All these helped play a role overall. As the Minimum starts to kick in well see more a Meridional Jet structure as history has proven time and time again. Skepticism of course. eing big follower of solar and its climatological, geomagnetic events and its affects on our planet, as well as celestial happenings that affect us, as well as cycles of these makes me wonder and felld good about where we are heading staryongbyjis years and subsequent years.
  2. We won't know these affects for a few days. Two friends in Montana said crops are done their as they are in the Dakotas.
  3. Observation: major crop losses of wheat, corn, soybeans, grains from the major flooding and tremendously wet spring to the hard freeze and major snowstorms that just hit the upper plains into Canada this making this years harvest a very compressed time frame and harvest that is about 1/2 (from US Agricultural) reports. Translation: food prices to rise and possible shortages as we move through winter. Also, if farmers don'tvget some financial relief, they will have to leave the farm. Spoke to freinds in Ill, Minn, Mont, Idiana, Ohio and Colo, all said farms are hurting badly in these regions.
  4. For a Grand Solar Minimum it is not, Alaska and BC usually are anamolously warm. BUT for times not in one (which we are at the beginning stages of) it is extraordinary.
  5. It will as Alaska and Arctic Region will be above in this Grand Solar Minimum as past episodes have shown. A normal and nothing out of the ordinary for this but for normal weather year abnormal. Hagabis kick starts the down stream affects late Oct and should really kick things in by early midish Nov if reading things correctly.
  6. It was Joe D in a paper , pdf online. Also talk about the affects on NAO in near term, months after low solar periods. Interesting.I can only get chapter 10 for some reason. More digging to be able to post a link.
  7. My sincere question is what quantitative analytical information is imputed to ascertain the NAO forecast with these models? If some important pieces of information in this Grand Solar Min and even SST in this region as we are seeing a nice warm pool collect (map below) are not inputted then you get a totally skewed result IMO. I take these with grans of salt and wait for TS (Isotherm) and others (like you, Hibbo, Armando, JH, Dougie Snow, etc) to give us the GWO, AAM, QBO, IO, etc which will help lend us an idea to where this may go. Modoki here Spotless Days Current Stretch: 8 days2019 total: 207 days (73%)2018 total: 221 days (61%) Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.37x1010 W Cold Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957) Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009 Cosmic rays = cloud nucleation - very very new analysis Oulu Neutron Counts Percentages of the Space Age average: today: +9.9% High 30-day change: +0.1% Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009) Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991
  8. Interesting concept here brought up. There is a lag with everything if you think about it in the weather world but there are direct immediate affects from low solar and max solar as well on storms. Is NAO influence lagged, from research yes, have to look up if it was Joe D or someone else on this.
  9. @samsara2 gotbthat right. Partly due to Typhoon Hagibab or whatever its name is. The Meridional jet structure is at play here. Trough looks to be in the Rockies and UMW region. Fun times ahead. Historic fall at play bigly
  10. It is a Grand Solar Minimum which even NASA and NOAA said will rival the Dalton minimum of 200 years ago. Along with great seismic volcanic activity of several VEI 3/4 eruptions (Shiveluch, Popo, Sabancaya, Angung, ) and a 5 (Ulwan) will have affects. Enso.looks to be Modoki set up with the warmest waters being in the 4 region and the depth at 55 m as AM.pointed out in a tweet. SSW event still taking place in the SH has a role as well, Joe D wrote about this. Plus QBO info,maps, charts from snow hibbo show we are heading in the right direction there. Solar irridation, cosmic ray influx, tremendously low solar all have affects on our weather. We dont give it enough weight sometimes. My 02c.
  11. 52* and raining still Up to .43" of wetness The affects from the re curving typhoon are a few fold - one near term trough over the EC and possible Coastal etc. Drop in cold air or dislodges cold air from the cold source region Two long term pop the PNA and drop the NAO and AO and EPO regions (allowing heights to rise) Time will tell so we shall see
  12. You seem to be.versed on this and this is what I read from 3 different sites, JB, Ventrice and Perpective Weather. Thanks for pointing this out, always learning. BUT when Sandy did hit the perigee of the moon, earth and Saturn where almost perfectly aligned, again from pros that I read excerpts from.
  13. King Tide in Full Effect - last time this aligned in almost perfect perigee but yuo had Saturn align as well....................SANDY!!! Celestial affects on our planet. King Tide
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