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About griteater

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  1. ^ Ha that CFS MJO would likely make things interesting
  2. ^ I added a few more things in that thread (MJO in Feb 2006 and Mar 2001....and trends on recent GEFS Ext runs for Feb 14-21)
  3. A possible path for Feb-Mar in the thread here: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1353031525944733703
  4. Yeah maybe we can at least see some weakening in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent convection in time
  5. Just trying to be a contributor and not a distraction . Calm the Pac jet down a bit and we can all have some fun...UK too
  6. It's really nice to see after years and years of searching. My thought here is that the pattern would favor the mid-Atlantic and north in early-mid Jan, and all along the east coast in mid-late Jan as tropical convection moves east off Indonesia and we see an improving Western North America pattern...time will tell.
  7. Hello @donsutherland1, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on the stat where you indicated that "9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO" The QBO is utilized in various ways with respect to seasonal forecasting, but IMO, it's best use with winter forecasting is not so much with the AO/NAO, but rather, with the configuration of the North Pacific High/Ridge that is common during La Nina winters. A North Pacific ridge is almost certain to be present in the mean pattern during Cool ENSO / La Nina winters when the Jul-Oct ave
  8. ^ Thanks all for the feedback...appreciate it
  9. I posted my forecast thoughts on the upcoming winter here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1785-griteaters-winter-outlook-19-20/
  10. Griteater’s Winter Outlook (19-20) Report Card – Last Winter’s Outlook No way to hide it, my outlook from a year ago was not good. After last year’s debacle, I told myself I wasn’t going to do an outlook this year, but alas, here I am. I can’t help it. My best call from last year’s outlook was my NAO prediction where my forecast maps indicated a +NAO in Dec, a –NAO in Jan, a neutral NAO in Feb, and a +NAO in Mar. The NAO numbers last winter were: Dec (+0.09) / Jan (-0.42), Feb (+0.35), Mar (+2.35) – from Dr. James Hurrell’s PC-Based NAO calculation.
  11. I'm still spooked from last year when the SSW didn't downwell and February acted like La Nina instead of El Nino...I'm trying to recover before the 10 count
  12. Right or wrong, I've come to prefer viewing the MJO solely via the VP structure/movement. Here is the VP phase space diagram to go along with the week 1-2 maps you posted (it's a lot cleaner than the typical MJO RMM phase space diagrams) - all from MVentrice: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
  13. Iso - the November Global AAM Anomaly is actually the 2nd highest since 1958, and the Oct-Nov is 4th highest, placing it among the super ninos and other select years. - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1067482391407673351
  14. Matt - take a look at this one - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0209.1 "Overall, an easterly QBO wind anomaly in the lower stratosphere leads to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex, in agreement with previous studies, although not because of changes in the subtropical critical line." "downward propagation of the QBO in the equatorial stratosphere, upper stratospheric equatorial zonal wind, and changes in the tropospheric circulation appear to be less important than lower stratospheric easterlies for the polar stratospheric response."
  15. Enjoyed the write-up Iso. You continue to push the science forward, kudos. Love the NAO predictor. I spent more time in this arena with my outlook this year as well, looking for more clues. If we do in fact see a 10mb SPV that is stronger than normal along with a solid -NAO, that would be quite the call. Good luck and thanks for taking the time to post it.
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