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About griteater

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    Charlotte, NC

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  1. 40 degrees with no shortage of thunder and lightning, and heavy rain down here in Charlotte, NC, lol. Make it stop
  2. A lot of times with sleet, the above freezing warm layer will be above 850mb
  3. As a follow up, go take a look at the HRRR maps on weathernerds.com. All snow on the ptype images across NYC. I’ve seen that issue before with the Trop Tidbits sounding showing snow, but the ptype map showing sleet
  4. Yeah that’s nowhere near being a sleet sounding. Purple = sleet is off for some reason on that map
  5. Checking in from Charlotte, NC where the best we could do with this storm was 33 and rain Strong rising motion here in the dendrite growth zone at LaGuardia on the GFS and Teterboro on the 3km NAM. Good luck up there. Y'all enjoy
  6. ^ Ha that CFS MJO would likely make things interesting
  7. ^ I added a few more things in that thread (MJO in Feb 2006 and Mar 2001....and trends on recent GEFS Ext runs for Feb 14-21)
  8. A possible path for Feb-Mar in the thread here: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1353031525944733703
  9. Yeah maybe we can at least see some weakening in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent convection in time
  10. Just trying to be a contributor and not a distraction . Calm the Pac jet down a bit and we can all have some fun...UK too
  11. It's really nice to see after years and years of searching. My thought here is that the pattern would favor the mid-Atlantic and north in early-mid Jan, and all along the east coast in mid-late Jan as tropical convection moves east off Indonesia and we see an improving Western North America pattern...time will tell.
  12. Hello @donsutherland1, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on the stat where you indicated that "9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO" The QBO is utilized in various ways with respect to seasonal forecasting, but IMO, it's best use with winter forecasting is not so much with the AO/NAO, but rather, with the configuration of the North Pacific High/Ridge that is common during La Nina winters. A North Pacific ridge is almost certain to be present in the mean pattern during Cool ENSO / La Nina winters when the Jul-Oct ave
  13. ^ Thanks all for the feedback...appreciate it
  14. I posted my forecast thoughts on the upcoming winter here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1785-griteaters-winter-outlook-19-20/
  15. Griteater’s Winter Outlook (19-20) Report Card – Last Winter’s Outlook No way to hide it, my outlook from a year ago was not good. After last year’s debacle, I told myself I wasn’t going to do an outlook this year, but alas, here I am. I can’t help it. My best call from last year’s outlook was my NAO prediction where my forecast maps indicated a +NAO in Dec, a –NAO in Jan, a neutral NAO in Feb, and a +NAO in Mar. The NAO numbers last winter were: Dec (+0.09) / Jan (-0.42), Feb (+0.35), Mar (+2.35) – from Dr. James Hurrell’s PC-Based NAO calculation.
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