Analog96

1993 and 1991 are the closest Enso matches.

Because they have a light glaze of ice in the forecast. A trace of ice is criteria for a wwa.

Checking one's own forecasts is important in becoming a better forecaster. You can discover biases, uncover if you're forecasting well or not, and make yourself better at what you do.

TT doesn't show very much anyway. They don't show precipitation and they only jump 24 hours at a time.

You should be able to share anything that's free. TT doesn't show very much of the ECMWF anyway and only has 24 hour timesteps.

Yeah, too bad the US government and NCEP can't tell ECMWF basically that if they want GFS data they can go screw themselves unless they want to pay an incredible fee for it. I think I am going to be making Excel spreadsheets, starting on March 1, doing my verifications vs. models. I want to wait until the 1st so I can do it monthly.

A little bit of both. Obviously, I'd only be able to do elements such as temperature, precipitation type and amount, but I'd like to ultimately do some comparisons with models vs my own forecast numbers and compare them side by side. Since I don't pay for any model products, I'd also not be able to use any ECMWF temperature products. It would be more GFS/NAM short term and GFS longer term.

That evolution actually makes more sense.

Good, quicker is what we need.

In my younger days, I drove out there in one day several times.

One of these days, I am going to start doing some personal verification model statistics for different models in my area. I can't do upper levels, obviously, but I don't live up there ha ha

You may have a point. I just wish they would look at something other than just hemispheric 500 MB verification charts. Those charts can be misleading, because for one, they only look at one level, and for another thing, they examine the entire hemisphere. So a model could be doing great in Russia and not so great here and achieve pretty good scores.

NWS plans to make it the only GFS in 5 weeks. However, they added the caveat "Provided that test simulations go well"

So the GFS is still showing something March 2-4. Verbatim the coastal develops too late and we get snow showers/squalls from a NORLUN, followed by near record cold temperatures. But the signal is still there.

Look at that high coming down...