Analog96

What I mean is if a model shows a storm tracking into Detroit and instead it goes over NYC, or vice versa, it's still a bad miss. It may not have really affected sensible weather in our backyard all that much, but a miss is a miss is a miss.

I take issue when people say "the models have not missed a rainer". Meteorologically, it's a lot easier to "not miss a rainer'. If you drew a box of where a storm center generally has to be to produce snow in our area, it would be relatively small. If you drew a box of where an LP center can be and produce rain in our area, it would be huge. My point is, models can "miss" a storm track of a rainer by 500 miles and it still rains. If it miseed the track of a potential snowstorm by 500 miles, it would either rain or be a sunny day.

Yeah the only way we could get snow out of this southern slider is if it was a day later. When you have no blocking, everything would have to be timed perfectly.

Part of my job is to be accurate. We all screw up from time to time. It is the nature of the business. But screwing up when the data is obvious and tells you otherwise is when it's bad.

LOL I guess someone at Mt Holly is a little frustrated: $$ Synopsis...AO+ Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...AO+ Aviation...MPS/AO+ Marine...MPS/AO+

At least there's a nice high in a good spot. So there's that...

1997 we just missed a big snowstorm. If the 2007 Tax Day storm happened two weeks earlier. it could have been a big one for many.

My seasonal was god awful. I will be the first to admit that. But my monthlies were pretty good. I had 0 to +1 for DEC which was not bad... +5 or higher for Jan, which was great, and then I had 0 to +1 for FEB, which will probably verify too cool, but is not an F. (An F would be if I went like -4 or something and was completely on the wrong side). If I had to guess for Mar right now, I'd have 0 to +2. But I'll wait another 2.5 weeks and do it at the end of the month, which is customary.

Umm for January I gave clients a + 5 to +8 forecast. I have no idea what you are spewing and neither do you. Read more, post less.

As of right now, and it's early, I don't see any huge signals for March one way or the other, but I'd probably lean on the warmer side of normal, just because of how the pattern has progressed.

Yeah I don't really see the connection there, or what Trump has to do with it. DeBlasio sucks as a mayor, but I don't know what Trump has to do with that.

I have always heard Berks County on SPSs and Flood Advisories. It has been nonstop.

But what I am seeing is that the same time the EPO goes positive the PNA goes somewhat positive as well. It's almost like the ridge that's currently near Alaska just shifts south, as the SE Ridge dies off for a while. So we'll see what that means as we head into March and wavelengths change...

But at least he didn't do that and then send us into more unnecessary wars. That would have been even worse.

All Bolton wants to do is blow everyone up all over the world and create regime changes all over the world, where we have no business being.