Analog96

Be careful with maps like that. It's January. Normal in those areas is cold. Above normal can still be cold enough to snow.

Just from a standpoint of what's been the most accurate recently, if I had to pick from the nam vs everything else, i'd take the everything else and the points to win.

i agree, and if it works out that way, where we get a 3 day warm up and a rain storm on the 25th and it's back to snow and cold and a snowstorm at the end of the month, and February is good, we'll be fine. I just can't believe how many winter's over posts you have to sort through because a few days get warmer.

Fwiw the lr gefs looked a lot better in the or than the op gfs from 6z or 00z.

This is what i have been saying. A south wind where I live, while not good, is better than se, and is blowing off cold land. Se would be a killer, as that would be a pure ocean breeze.

So did i, but it was more like a mix of everything. Could be the nam being the nam. We'll see. @NJwxguy78 I like a line from bastardi: enjoy the weather, its the only weather you have!

This, if it's boring, wait a day!

Yeah, I think you're going to need elevation to pull of six inches. There's just not enough QPF.

It was only the one post I made. I just think it was fair that I got a chance to do that. I'm not going to go on about it.

It was most of the forum, and it was also a pretty easy forecast. I didn't even see many challenges making this one. I really didn't understand it at all.

Gusted to 49 MPH yesterday, and 42 MPH overnight. Reached 20 degrees this morning. Gusted to 42 MPH overnight. Lost power for a few minutes overnight. Thank God it didn't stay off or I wouldn't have heat.

Here's something to ponder... when have MJO forecasts ever been lock step in agreement? It seems there's always one or two that don't agree.

This science/hobby can be maddening.

I don't buy that scenario 100% yet either. It's still 9 days out. The current GFS track is well east of where it was 6 hours ago. Here's what I recommend. Don't look at this again until like Sunday 12Zish. Let's see how the pattern shuffles between now and then. GFS also has a nice Miller B at the end of the run (I know the end of the run).And overall, the pattern looks fine. I don't see any sustained warm ups showing up or anything like that. It's very possible that the pattern we're going into is not the "perfect textbook winter pattern". But it's not a bad pattern, or a warm and dry pattern by any means. And honestly, I really don't get how/why anyone can be complaining after what we just came out of the last 3-4 weeks.

Of course. That could be a very plausible explanation. If an operational model handles the mjo wrong, its end result will be wrong.