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About manny10293

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  • Birthday 10/02/1993

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    Burlington, Vt

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  1. The GEFS is much more progressive through the phases and develops a stronger MJO that leaves that door open to colder phases 8, 1 & 2 for early March. (Although this progression and strength the GEFS is depicting could open the door to the development of an El Nino.) The Euro keeps the MJO much weaker and in warmer phases.
  2. Euro trended back to a milder break after next weeks cold shot. Was confident myself in a fairly significant stretch of cold weather but we may have to live with bouts of cold quickly running through followed by milder breaks between cold shots. I'm still holding onto hope that the models are not modeling the MJO correctly and will catch on soon enough.
  3. From 8 this morning to 40's tomorrow. Gotta love it.
  4. Got a coating of ice on sidewalks. Just enough to make everything glisten but not turn the roads to mayhem.
  5. As someone who loves weather but only studied it for 2 years, their actions honestly are getting out of control and I feel bad for those making big bets based on their forecast. People might as well go to the casino and put it on red.
  6. Bam is going all in on the GEFS and is convinced the EPS is full of it.
  7. Interesting to see the GFS, GEFS and now some early signals on the EPS, starting to show signs of breaking down around the 20th. Looked like this cold pattern might stick around for a while longer but seeing this in the last few runs makes me think the pattern changes around the 20th. Models count be quick to pull the trigger but seems like the stage is set for a pattern change in the next few weeks. Excited to be tracking next weeks storm!
  8. If this disruption were to pan out, I would assume at least the first half of December stays warms but when would the cold air return?
  9. Looks like Friday's storm has truly fizzled out and turned into a whole lot of nothing, even for us in the north country. The trend continues for colder weather to persist and send cold air down our way. Models keep hinting at temperatures moderating around the 20th but I'm convinced this trend of persistent cold will continue until models start breaking down the ridge out west. Maybe last week of November? I don't think we torch in December but will average slightly above normal until mid winter when we begin trending cold again. All this said I'm looking forward to our first blanket of snow Friday!
  10. This cold pattern looks pretty persistent so we should have several opportunities. It's only a matter of time before a system lines up for the coast.
  11. We dodged the worst of the winds but got slammed with rain. Burlington area saw 4-6 inches of rain with much of it falling in a very short period of time. Almost 10% of the state is without power and hundreds of schools closed for the day. Last night was my first shift with Williston Fire and spent most of the night chasing weather related incidents.
  12. GFS is slowly keeping the cold air for the eastern half of the US for longer and longer. Euro has been sticking to it's guns and keeping the colder air locked in Canada with some spilling into the northern third of the lower 48. Does everyone still think we experience an above average second half of November? Just seems as though things are trending colder for this time period.
  13. Very impressive for early November. Question is whether this will become a sustained pattern or will we flip back to above average the second half of the month. Certainly an interesting trend over the last 24 hours.
  14. What's going on with the GFS? Been an impressive swing to much colder temps over the next few weeks within the last 24 hours. This trend has also sustained for three straight runs.
  15. Look like we get some cool shots at the end of the month and possibly extending into the first week of November. The euro is sticking to limiting the extent of these cool shots in November but any insight into people's opinion on whether these cold shots do in fact play out. I'm thinking even if it does play out warmer weather prevails for the following few weeks into November but anyone think these cool shots could be part of a long term pattern of cool weather?
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