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The Weatherhog

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About The Weatherhog

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    Exton, Pa

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  1. Some of us were out of town that weekend. The wound has not healed yet.
  2. I’ll take a 13-14 pacific and 95-96 Atlantic this year, thanks.
  3. Last nights geps shows how, with blocking, we can get a decent pattern to set up for us even with the ridge off the west coast. Later in the run the se ridge gets poppin more as we lose the positive anomalies over Greenland. With the qbo seemingly headed for the +5 to -15 range I for one am feeling optimistic at this range that we see more of a -nao than a positive one.
  4. Looking at the difference between the 2 years it’s not like it’s a 3,000 mile difference. So perhaps it would argue that the mean trough would be more towards the middle of the country allowing the southeast ridge to pop at times? We would more than likely need the nao to remain negative in this event. However, strong blocking and a southeast ridge could create an interesting pattern for the mid Atlantic and northeast provided it’s not a raging se ridge. At quick glance it looks like weatherbell might be leaning that way.
  5. Negative anomalies at that latitude are typical of positive pdo’s. It does usually spread more east to give it that classic horseshoe look.
  6. The cooling by the date line isn’t a bad thing. Wouldn’t mind if it pushed a bit farther east actually. I don’t like the warming of the Newfoundland cold pool. Maybe our coastal storm will help to stir up more negative anomalies there?
  7. Gfs indicating the potential for the first LES event next week.
  8. How do you figure? Thought low arctic sea ice correlated with a -ao.
  9. This doesn’t look right to me. 20mm falls as all snow in se pa. Should be closer to 8 if using 10:1.
  10. The h5 setup is just not conducive for a strong coastal. An earlier transfer, ok. You’re a free thinker which is good but a post like this is basically suggesting that you are expecting the look at h5 to completely change in less than 120 hours. So with suggestions like this you need to lay out your case, otherwise, like what was said above, posts like this are not helpful.
  11. Someone correct me if I’m wrong please, but I think it’s ok to share an ecmwf map that’s already been shared. Like if Maue or someone else tweets a 360 eps map or posts it anywhere besides behind a paywall then that pic is fair game.
  12. System 2 looks pretty good on FV3 fwiw. Looks like maybe a 3-5 type thing from sw connecticut down to northwest burbs of Philly.
  13. Haha yea maybe. But going to bed expecting the storm to miss and waking up to blizzard like conditions added some points. So that winter gave a lot of us something we’ll never forget. In that regard it saved the winter.
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