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The Weatherhog

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About The Weatherhog

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    Exton, Pa

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  1. I agree. I think this period hits. There should be plenty of cold air around days 10-15 with a southern jet that is ready to rock. I’m very optimistic about this period.
  2. That has the look of an active southern jet with our flow coming out of the arctic as you stated. Split flow pattern coming up? Geps showing that potential.
  3. Yes this period has me very excited right now. Should have some strong cold highs thanks to the ridging in Alaska and northwest Canada. BIG potential here imo.
  4. These filtered vp maps suggest the eps may be too fast with the sustained cold look. That’s a week 2 phase 6 look if right. The gefs holding off on the sustained look for a few more days does makes sense.
  5. One of my favorites as well. Had many lightning strikes and 3”+ hour rates for several hours in the middle of the night. Finished with 18” in Chester county pa. I don’t remember much wind with the storm. I do remember those phenomenal satellite images that storm gave us though.
  6. Pretty good thermal gradient out at day 10 on the eps with the boundary underneath us. Could get something going along that.
  7. Strong -epo pushing into ao region on the end of the geps run.
  8. Yup, could be worse. We might be tracking some threats while we torch.
  9. Certainly looks like the long range nam wants to develop a frontogenetic band.
  10. December’s qbo value came in at 1.66. 2004 is a close match and not far off the pace of 2002.
  11. As we progress through the first couple weeks of January the gefs is showing a lot of brutally cold air not far away. If and when this pattern turns it will not take long for the cold to work into the mid Atlantic and northeast. If we do flip it could be quick and it could be dramatic.
  12. You’ve got a bit of a surface ridge extension there but it’s too far north and weak to really have any impact.
  13. Interesting indeed. I mentioned here yesterday how I thought the look at 500mb was way better than what the surface depiction has been.
  14. I always look at 500mb first. I keep expecting to see something more at the surface in the Mid Atlantic. Typically not a bad look.
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