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BOWL300

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  1. FV3-GFS, GEFS, EPS AND ECMWF starts the Atlantic improvements around the 21st and PAC improvements shortly thereafter. Once again hitting home the improvements in the AO/NAO domains as we head to the 20/21th and beyond. the FV3-GFS i am naturally being very cautious, BUT seeing the EPS, ECWMF AND GEFS see these improvements in this time frame and forward is a great sign. its continuing the theme that around the 20th and forward their is some legitimate signs things look to be improving in areas thar have been largely hostile since Beginning of December. MJO STILL headed in the right direction. We are in P8 going to P1-2 and likely P3 by mid march. Like i have posted ad nauseam the past two weeks, we are in the phases that PROMOTE a better Atlantic and Pacific pattern. Think the globals are ingesting that into their forecasts here finally. WE are headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION HERE FOLKS.
  2. More amplitude. It will have a more drastic effect on the pattern faster and with less "lag" from previous phases.
  3. @earthlight i agree with your assessment whole HEARTEDLY. Overall, this winter has not gone to plan at all. It has been a season of destructive interference. We have made our home in the ridge phases of the MJO of P4-5-6 and then COD. Only thing that saved us from torching the entire month of January in P4-5-6 was the PV split and the cold that was able to penetrate the CONUS. Forward, using VP 200 you can see the MAJOR MJO propagation through P8-1-2 should continue to amplify further and the RMM plots would not be an accurate tool to depict this. The EPO ridge will become a fairly high determinant factor for the 12th storm and i can only see it becoming more and more poleward and EAST BASED. the MJO signal would back this up. Furthermore, i saw the polar blocking you brought up @ 12z yesterday on the GFS. That should improve as well as Atlantic high latitude blocking next week. OP models in particular struggle when a large scale pattern shift is in the works. The MJO wil definitely caused increased model volatility. I am confident the EPS/ECMWF will have the right idea here
  4. This definitely is NOT a layup storm. This is "WORKABLE" though. I put up a post this morning. Read it. Its atleast my interpretation of what we would like to see to have this storm work out for all of us
  5. I do agree. I know both @33andrain and @NJwxguy78 from another forum they were part of. They have a great forum here. Some new people i have not seen but still some top notch stuff here.
  6. I call it the "page indicator". Every weather forum i have been a part of, the amount of pages from overnight discussions shows if models went right OR wrong way. Its a sure fire method before even looking at models lol
  7. Definitely. I am keeping an eye on the 12th storm next week before going any further. Bar none, best chance we have had since December 5th. EPO, Atlantic help and some polar blocking will go a long way. Want to see a poleward east based -EPO, some 50/50 help and higher heights around the polar regions before i really get excited brother.
  8. Regarding the 12th storm; You can see how the EPO ridge has a better Orientation from 12z than 00z ECMWF. You can FURTHER see the reflection on the EC because of it. While the WC of the US has some wave interference at 12z it would atleast be sufficient even with the interference to help with a more effective secondary transfer. The Orientation of the 00z ECMWF EPO is further west, allows for earlier primary amplification and hurts the transfer and unequivocally the HP Orientation as well.  On the flip side on the EPS, the EPO ridge itself looks more stable and has a better reflection on the EC but once again needs to be further EAST for more impactful effectiveness to promote a quicker transfer off the east coast. The GFS 00Z AND 06Z EPO depiction and especially with 00z better blocking over the polar regions helped a better transfer and better solution with a quicker transfer. Having a further WEST EPO RIDGE and less blocking in the polar regions hurt us at 06z. Those two regions aligned more properly would help this system substantially. Forget any PAC help, you are not getting it. This will boil down to a poleward EAST BASED -EPO and blocking around the Polar regions
  9. What screwed December 5th from a lay up KU was an unfortunate piece of confluence in SE CANADA
  10. We do have some SE ridge help nearby. Its not like we have a massive west based-NAO either to squash the flow. This can easily come up the coast. This may also be the GFS Progressive bias at work here. A few hundred mile shift in the 250MB right jet exit over NE and all would be happy
  11. I really do not see suppression being an issue here. A 1040 hp in that location is not suppressive especially in that location verbatim
  12. 2016 was SAVED by an upper scale NESIS 4 storm. Outside of that it would have been on par with 2001-02, 2011-12. This winter, or what ever is left needs at least one good storm or stretch of 2+ weeks of moderate snowstorms to erase what COULD be clunker. A weak El Nino winter is supposed to he anything BUT what he have experienced. Yes, notoriously they are backloaded but due to poor tropical forcing, constructive interference anyway it could happen and other mitigating factors it has put us in a position to really be in a poor winter overall.
  13. 100% agree here. I have seen some awful tweets this winter overall. Even from Professionals i thought were better than that.
  14. I really liked the new VP 200 MJO today. I am also intrigued by seeing the ECWMF AND EPS enthusiastic about the 13/14th time frame. Too far out to determine exact outcome but its the best look we have had this season as far as a widespread snow chance. Beyond that when the models collectively see the P8-1-2 propagation we will see further improvements in the PAC, especially the constant troughs hitting the WC. Height rises should take place also in Greenland eventually as well. Dont throw in the towel on winter yet folks
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