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Armando S

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  1. Using the 6z GFS just to illustrate my thoughts (and in alignment with the other pros and experts), this right here depicts an unstable troposhere with a high wavenumber pattern of rossby waves. With torques propelling positive after ~ mid-month, westerly momentum being deposited in the sub-tropics, and a propensity for the higher latitudes to display high latitude blocking, we’re bound to see a “reset” to the Northern Hemispheric pattern. This resembles somewhat of what had occured back in November given the evolution, but more importantly now add in adjusting seasonal wavelengths and we’re looking at one solid winter pattern for the CONUS heading towards Christmas/New year. Also, lets not forget the deal with the stratosphere and its implications for an unstable atmosphere (meaning a great probability of displaced cross polar flow/arctic air) towards the mid-latitudes) augmenting an already anomalous mid level pattern heading into Jan. Buckle up!
  2. Hey everyone, Just wanted to stop by and do a quick scan of an observation of something i've begun to notice on ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) and to add; those weeklies have merit. Look at this below; Does this look familiar in anyway pertaining to that anomalous High east of Greenland and centered over and near Scandinavia? That configuration was seen very recently.... I do ask to ignore the z500mb depiction across Alaska/Western Canada for now for the point i'm making. What you see in the composite led to over a 1 S.D. from normal (right below) in the negative territory. Below are the GEFS and the last 13 runs (could only fit an animated gif of one ensemble suite, but basically GEPS is almost a near carbon copy). EPS? Right below... (just couldn't add the gif either). What is the point? After carefully observing the z500mb rossby wave synoptic pattern while taking into consideration "smoothing" subjectivity from ensembles, it stands to reason that we're looking at a clear shift towards yet another potential retrogression/incipient positive geo. heights backing into the NAO domain. BUT, it's manifesting yet again near and within the vicinity of Scandinavia! Just look at the signal magnify with decreasing lead time! Did we not just experience this? (EPS...) But wait, now lets go back to the top and my mentioning of disregarding the ridging seen across AL/W.Canada. Below, just the top row is what you need to concern yourselves with (fig. a and b), as this study (published from Judah C. and partner - Justin Jones) essentially shows what the SLP depiction looks like BEFORE a PV displacement and then AFTER. Hmm, that looks awfully familiar! So, not only are we getting yet ANOTHER incipient signal from the Scandinavia region and its correlation to a retrogression/-NAO, but the type of pattern being displayed in the medium term yields distress of upwelling momentum (via W1, but increased support for a W2) towards the stratosphere. All of this while a "brief moderation" to the cold discharges, thus, if we add all of this together in conjunction with westerly momentum in the tropics about to deposit into extra-tropics/mid-latitudes, the period after ~12/18th-ish.... I say game on! (Sorry to take away from the upcoming storm and the great analyzations going on!)
  3. After finding some time to dive into NWP in general and taking note of some notable alterations to the waveguide, something stood out to me that essentially augments support for a bonafide "window" that we're all discussing. Check this out; Look initially across the North Pacific. A "P2" anticyclonic wave break manifests via a monstrous "Okhotsk" trough (sound familiar from last winter? *cough cough* Anthony M.) along with the *initial* jet extension (left exit), but is soon to be retracting. You'll see how we see a robust wave break not only into Alaska/Bering Sea, but also into the Pacific side of the Arctic circle. This is even reinforced throughout the loop! Also, right at the beginning of this loop, look at the low PVU (indicated by the blues/purples) initially across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and shoots up into New Found-land/Labrador... This, in conjunction with the Pacific ACWB, almost works in tandem and has kind of a harmonious and asymmetrical connection as the EPO domain is filled with positive heights while an incipient Greenland ridge forms. But wait, there is more to this going back to my first statement.... Also, you can see here using @burgwx's FINE maps(!), a clear shift towards a 1. stronger Alaskan/EPO ridge and 2. The tilt of the ridge, meaning anticyclogenesis is bolstered, which argues for a stronger push of Arctic thermal high pressure. This further puts emphasis that the period closer to the 9th is legit. Now, here is what I really wanted to get across. According to Magnusdottir and Strong's published paper, the Atlantic tends to have *anticyclonic* wave breaking events relative to climatology. As you can clearly see below, we're about to undergo yet a sequence of CWB across the Atlantic.... we just literally had this occur where we had a retrogression from Scandinavia, but wasn't exploited entirely given the state of the Pacific. However, we're going to see not only just CWB, but it'll be reinforced (first event happens around the 3rd-4th) especially towards the end of this loop Just taking z500mb anomaly to better show for illustration purposes... We see an initial incipient ridge emanate across Southern Greenland, but is then augmented and reinforced PRIOR to the period of the 9th/10th, thus supporting for something I think has some big potential. The 5th-6th has a shot to don't get me wrong as synoptically, there is support although i do kind of want to see a bit more wave spacing between the incoming polar vort and the departing trough that allocates towards the 50/50 region ( a bit messy also pertaining to strung out vorticity). Reason I do see a much better shot at the subsequent period is because of what has been stated, but also because we allow the synoptic evolution to "settle" in a bit and allow for a "boom". Carry on (truly LOVE the tenacious contributions and commenting on here, this page is addicting lol)
  4. Armando S

    Blizzard of 2016 Analysis

    Yeah, basically what everyone stated, @brooklynwx99 this is an amazing analysis that literally utilizes both "on the field" and classroom knowledge. Considering the storm you chose, It accentuates the curiosity even more in my opinion given the magnitude and impact it had. I'm not sure if you're taking or soon to be, but in synoptic meteorology II, learning about the axes of dilatation and contraction, but more knowing how to discern what is present via isentropes relative to x/y axis. Therefore, contingent upon the intensity of the rotational flows present, it impacts the horizontal temp. gradient and this can indirectly alter frontogenesis as well as deformation having the ability to influence frontogenesis (talk about difficult to try to visualize lol). My point is, when looking back on such overwhelming fronto. circulation during that storm, I wonder how efficient and immense the processes were. Anyway, great stuff!!
  5. Hey everyone, just wanted to share some of my observations going forward for the near to medium term. First and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving and I share the sentiment that others have stated! Real quick in a nutshell: Model volatility is going to be maximized and there are a few reasons for this; 1. High wavenumber synoptic pattern (k = 6). Anything over a wavenumber 4 is considered a pretty highly amplified pattern. What are the implications? Chaos and run to run volatility. I already can see it in this "realm" of weather fanatics we've seen manifested from a crazed "fix" on snow and what it delivers, but the panicking has commenced. (we're all weenies at heart ). 2. This has pretty much been stated ad nauseam by now; the step by step retrogression of anomalous high-latitude blocking deposited via CWB across the Northern Atlantic from Scandinavia ( over ~3 Std. dev's above climo.(!) east of Greenland, *maintaining* its anomalous idiosyncrasy and traversing towards a west based block. Thereafter (labeled for simplicity and to the point), it shifts towards Hudson Bay before easing. Remember, you look basically after the "peak" of the magnitude of the block towards the East Coast for explosive cyclogenesis. Note the date: Early Dec.... give or take ~ 5-7 days for our *best* potential? Just to further illustrate its significance and robustness of this process, check out the initialization of the 200mb U/-U anomalies. We go from seeing prevailing westerlies to full blown halting, weakening of the polar jet, and net result of easterlies. You don't think that by adding an anomalous hemispheric allocation to an ALREADY complex "system" will emanate chaos in NWP? .... yea... pattern recognition > models (we have the evidence via from our great members... you know who you are) But now, lets throw in yet ANOTHER variable into a multi-faceted interconnection occurring over the next 1-2 weeks. We go from jet extension, towards a retraction/slight relaxation, thus altering the pacific waveguide. What do we make of Typhoon Manyi and its irrotational outflow and implications downstream? We see what looks like an anticyclonic wave break in the day ~ 8-11, -EPO manifestation (while the -NAO block eases and doing its "part" of blocking the flow upstream) with reinforced cold from the pacific domain... (we can see positive geo. heights build in the image from ECM labeled "4"). Not to mention, shortwaves "running around". My point? The volatility will be maximized, the "games" have begun with NWP, but the most important thing to do is recognize the evolving pattern as we approach early December. As @earthlight put it; it's not a matter of "if", but "when". Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy your day!
  6. Yeah, the striking similarities and "mirroring" that there is, consistent with the findings from Dr. Mitchell that I've come across (Paper - "NORTHEAST COOL SEASON CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES" ) are ridiculously scary. The composite below is a depiction of explosive cyclogenesis and the preceding z500mb evolution that leads up to coastal development. I highlighted the positive's (darker shadings indicated by a "+") and negative geo. heights (dashed/ "-"). Ridging "bridging" across and over the top with a near perfect Greenland Block retrogression from east of Iceland and traversing west and connecting towards West Canada/BC. Aleutian trough? Check. Even a subtle hint of a negative east of Hawaii, but more of an indication of an augmenting STJ. Throw in our Archambault synoptic regime transition and we got ourselves a "bang" to begin December.
  7. Probably the most meridional output i’ve seen from CPC and their analog packet for z500mb. Note how 2009 appears twice along with 96 within the top of the list... the East Coast definitely is in the crosshairs for something of potent significance within the next ~ 12-25 day period. This has a strong connection to those familiar with Heather Archambault where there needs to be seen a SD of +\-1 of a teleconnection (PNA transition or NAO) within a 7 day timeframe. According to this study, the strongest correlation to positive “cool season precip anomalies” occur when we see a synoptic regime change from + —> - (and +PNA helps in conjunction, which is also being modeled). Huge implications for the end of Nov/early Dec as this Scandi ridge retrogression and significant slow down of the polar westerlies happen beginning later next week.
  8. Armando S

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    The ageostrophic components to this system relative to the climotological time period are ineffable. Considering how formidable the CAD wedge is and the integrated water transport, WAA, isentropic lift, and robust low-mid level fgen banding/ circulation along with the MSLP anomaly, one would think this is in the heart of winter. What an event! Also, the coupled dual jet is something right out of a textbook for ET/baroclincity!
  9. Excellent post yet again @brooklynwx99... you've called this back in I believe mid-Oct or so (may have been earlier) and your sentiment regarding that we start off strong. Well, that appears to be much more realistic now, and given that we're bound to see near future wave 1 activity, this only adds further support to your explanation. I'm looking into the WPO domain and would like to see if there is any correlation between the placement and propensity/magnitude of +ve geo. heights in Oct-Nov and the subsequent winter. Reason being? Well, it was brought into my attention the subsurface anomalies and concomitant depth analysis, and it's interesting to note that the configuration of placement between this year's October SSTA (0-100m) and the Oct of 2015 (big analog year for many outlets) are evidently different in terms of the warmest concentration. Given the propensity of a strong Aleutian low, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out and how these anomalies may shift eastward and alter, but my point lies within the WPO domain. That configuration supports a -WPO anyhow, so i'd like to see -WPO years but in the fall and its correlation to its z500mb for DJF. Nonetheless, check out this +NPMM! Another point is, and @NotSparta hinted at it, is that it's very interesting to see the "seesaw" balance between both the NAO and NPO domain. One seems to "take over" in terms of sensible impact within the troposphere, and you'll notice in that Gif that the heights decrease in magnitude over AL/Bering Sea as the Scandinavian ridge manifests and blossoms... so it's like if not one comes to fruition, then the other we look too (hence, the data presented and support for favorable influence from the Pacific domain). Also, @PB GFI, you've been hinting at this for a while implying a short lived moderation period (I believe haha)... great stuff guys!
  10. Armando S

    Isotherm’s Winter Outlook 2018-19

    @Isotherm, this was likely one of the best, if not THE best, winter forecast I've read. The deliberate deliverance of multifaceted variables of the tropospheric "structure" was phenomenal. I'll likely be reading it more then once because I'm able to harbor knowledge that you conveyed, so thank you. I really do love this page and the technical information that is shared.
  11. Congratulations! Love hearing people who are deciding to chase after that degree in this field. As many of us (wx hobbyists, experts, pros, etc) understand by now, this field is very diverse, exciting, thrilling, etc., but is a tough one; not only in forecasting the captivating elements and phenomenon of our wonderful atmosphere, but the curriculum is challenging. Stick to it, find ways to manage, and you’ll be just fine! Don’t hesitate to DM me also, as i’m currently finishing my B.S in Meteorology and am contemplating going to graduate’s school. Best of luck!
  12. Great deliberate post @brooklynwx99 (as always). To "piggy back" on your analysis, there is some "steam" that is beginning to manifest given the overall, Northern Hemispheric tendencies as we approach December. For instance, taking WAFz (credit: AER), we're beginning to see the troposhere act on its own, and not necessarily want to "play" (Isotherm's wording) with the stratosphere. When looking at that GIF that @brooklynwx99 provided and his reference to the Scandanavian/Europe ridge, this likely will render a downstream response and its manifestation has connections with this WAFz graph and vertical heat fluxes (albiet it's the GFS, which tends to be a bit "trigger happy", still the h5 forcing fully would support this IF that ends up coming to fruition). Thus, my point is and @33andrain alluded too, there appears to be a building propensity for a more meridional configuration to the polar jet and this may have some solid implications for not only Dec, but for this winter in general. Anything that does moderate towards the latter half of Nov really won't have much staying power, as that's my current thinking and would fall in line with some others (PB GFI and others who i've missed). The SPV may become perturbed yet again and to illustrate what the most recent burst of heat flux has done to the SPV, i'm providing a cross section U-wind displaying connections between the troposhere and stratosphere. This basically shows that there was indeed a response from the troposhere's manifestation -> stratosphere -> troposhere and upcoming forecasted -ve heights for N.A. next week. Do we replicate this come early Dec? We shall see.
  13. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Yes, I concur with this sentiment. Pictured below is a vertical cross-section of U-wind and I'm outlining (square box) with what'll have BIG implications for mid-winter and beyond. That entity is the STJ (sub-tropical jet) - an association with +ENSO and as well all know by now, we're seeing a nice and steady progression towards a "CP" flavored type event. Anyway, my point is however, this STJ will influence the pattern by manifesting a diabatic process where its latent heat technically can usher in +temps and influence downstream +geo. heights. With what appears to be a re-strengthening/re-positioning of the SPV and corresponding -ve PCH's via Judah Cohen, there is all the more reason to believe of a "moderation" period as we finish Nov and open up Dec. Thereafter, it's a bit tricky as there are a few mixed signals, but probably leaning on the side of our first legit(?) wintry potential? We'll see!
  14. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Yep, indeed NotSparta (nice to see you as a member on here!), taken from Judah's Blog his graph depicting WAFz between the troposphere and stratosphere. Below it, we're beginning to see planetary waves trying to impart a wave-1 configuration. What becomes of it is obviously the biggest question, but to see this at the time may be indicative of a preconditioned state where it becomes susceptible for further energy momentum upwelling, coupling, and perturbing as we head into early December.
  15. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Amugs, could you post the link where you got this info from if you don’t mind? Very interesting data!