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Armando S

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Armando S last won the day on October 11 2019

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About Armando S

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    Springfield, NJ

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  1. Hey all, Found some time to briefly analyze & monitor the window of opportunity next week for the M.A./NE. So, essentially, It appears we're seeing a bit of convergence towards the ECM/UK/GEPS "camp", where the GEFS (d(prog)/d(t) last 14 runs), shows that convergence towards an inflection point ~ Sunday AM; this inflection point is the position, tilt, and location of the TPV lobe/ULL in Saskatachwan/Alberta, CA. I quickly annotated both 12z EPS and OP juxtaposed, to show what i'm referring to. Notice the tilt and location; this allows just enough downstream heights to "perk", w
  2. Take two. Another under WWA until 10am central. It’s a wintry mix given temp. distribution in the vertical up to the lower levels, but this is ridiculous here lol. I mean, who would’ve thought. Lol
  3. Good morning all from Starkville, MS! Yep, Mississippi that is, where i’m at currently finishing up my degree, and already my semester begins today, although classes have already been cancelled! Crazy, right!
  4. Woke up to pancake-sized aggregates coming down moderately. Won’t be long until sleet will be mixing in as the rain/snow line via CC is quickly approaching. Gorgeous out there!
  5. As @CCB! alluded to, both the discussion and synoptic, large-scale synoptic evolution that'll unfold in the near-term, is nothing short of exciting. 1. Check out the 0z ECM modeled retrogression and billowing of a near 5 sigma anticyclone into the Baffin Bay (West-based -NAO block). This, we can ironically thank the zonal, extended Pacific jet causing tenacious Atlantic wave breaking (reinforces -NAO) 2. Made this point on twitter, but shown here is the GFS parallel dynamic tropopause theta. You're going to not only soon to see crazy, exciting model runs, but these sho
  6. There is going to be a bona-fide, truly classic -NAO regime that'll manifest over the next 1-2 weeks. This is a signal, and not "noise", given the state of the troposhere-stratosphere, and what is happening in the troposphere itself. Given the ideal "teamwork" between the Pacific and Atlantic Rossby-Wave train via Maritime Continent Low-Frequency forcing ( positive feedback exacerbated via extra-tropics interacting with the sub-tropics), and eventually a "handoff" to the W. Pac -- the continued downstream rossby-wavebreaking will continue to result in these large-scale, Rossby wave-breaks, fac
  7. The key here, for the week after Christmas, is to decipher signal from noise. The one absolute thing that’ll manifest is the “butterfly-effect”; this manifests from midweek’s meridional trough dig and propagation into the Atlantic. We’ll see then, a large anticyclonic wavebreak, exciting a large Atlantic “thumb” ridge, which will push poleward (how far into Greenland , James Bay, or become maybe an omega ridge(?)... TBD), we won’t know until really the lead-time decreases. That “sets the stage”, for what’ll be a highly volatile pattern, one that’ll render interesting scenarios for the Eas
  8. I just can't help the intrigue and excitement when looking at the short-medium range: You have a TPV vortice rotating around Nunavut, CA (oscillating around a generic area across C. Canada), that pinwheels s/w's equatorward. In conjunction, there'll be a rex-block that'll establish next week across the SW region of the CONUS (Bolsters western ridging). Also, the mid-latitude pacific waveguide will facilitate no shortage of energy, as a semi-extended jet swiftly retracts and becomes meridional; this all transpires next week. The exit region of the Pac. jet induces an interesting scenario; where
  9. As DCVA pushes downstream a negatively tilted trough, currently advecting E/NE, we'll see the pivot and precipitation shield fill up back across S/SE PA into NJ, and move NE. We'll see how fast this occurs, and subsequently how fast the CAA occurs, dictating how much more accumulations can be had. Man, Binghamton up to Worcester just absolutely getting crushed. The typical main snow band allocation towards that area in similar tracks/events such as these. Currently SN/IP, but back and forth. Probably would say I'm a solid 7-8" or so, if that. Absolutely had a great time tracking this, learning
  10. Nothing better, pure unceasing elation. Puking +SN. About to rack up the dendrites now!
  11. Oh boy, just wait until we see this H7 f-gen band begin to push north as it strengthens (along with general low-mid level fgen circulation). NYC metro is going to be rocked! +SN also i'm reporting (NE NJ - Springfield). Check out that beautiful pressure gradient as isobars tighten and our surface low continues to trek N, before kicking E/NE. Monitoring the h7/h85 lows. Certainly seeing an encouraging sign regarding 850mb circulation slightly S/SE of what 18z NAM had valid 23z
  12. @forkyforklol, nope not me. I always wondered who it has been now that you mentioned it!
  13. Just about -SN here in Springfield, NJ. We're beginning to see the 1000-700mb f-gen circulation evolve and strengthen. Check out the ridiculous low-level speed max we're going to see this evening via 700mb LLJ. The amount of low-level convergence and subsequent ascent (into the DGZ) is going to absolutely "puke" with this heavy meso. band (which'll likely become the main pivoting band once deformation stretching/shearing occurs). We're going to see crazy omega with this, and with some elevated CAPE and superfluous omega/VV, we'll have lightning and thunder later on tonight (charged particles v
  14. Some analysis this morning reveals a few interesting sights: mid-level trough axis is already in the process of de-amplifying denoted by the jet streak downstream the trough axis, beginning to lift up and out. In a way, it's a sight we want to see, so that the ultimate track of the mid-level low can stay as far south and mitigate height rises off the SE coast (12-hr H5 height change reveals height falling over deep south) with a slightly positively tilted --> neutral trough axis. Check out both the 300mb ageostrophic ULJ, as a dual-jet structure is forming. Also, two moisture s
  15. I’d say that’s a net positive with the NAM (and first up on the 0z suite). Check out the position of the 500mb ULL axis (0z L, 18z R). Slightly more progressive. These little adjustments can certainly have drastic surface changes.
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