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Armando S

Met Student
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  1. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Actually, after seeing the record breaking August value of 2.40 (using CPC's dataset going back to 1948), its September value still was high coming in at the 1.78 and the streak hit record territory given the stretch its been + since post SSWE this past winter/spring. I decided to take the 7 highest +NAO readings in Oct and then rolled them over towards subsequent DJF. Coincidentally, 6 out of the 7 years were +ENSO (didn't even know until I cross checked), and as you can see, the dipole had seen a complete flip. So, I suppose a Oct +NAO reading may have some type of statistical + correlation with the upcoming winter period, but of course there are other types of catalyst influences at play each year. Still, found it to be interesting nonetheless!
  2. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Excellent work and research @brooklynwx99! I find this rather remarkable that some of my analogs I've plugged in solely using QBO progression is congruous with your composite. For instance, my composite has six analogs that resemble closest in the CPC's dataset dating back to 1948. Of the six, four were El nino years, one was more neutral (modoki-esque like). and one was more of a weak -ENSO. Again, this is assuming the gradual and steady transition of a eQBO towards wQBO from 30mb down to 45-50mb by Feb. Intriguing to say the least, with a high wavenumber rossby wave configuration, and key HLB ridges (notice the ridge over Europe, south of Scandanvia.. typically has implications for catalyzing upwelling momentum towards the stratosphere). Still a good amount to unravel given ENSO and other hemisphere forcing, but you can't not like where we're heading going forward.
  3. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    This winter just got crazier...
  4. Ceases to amaze me how NWP can predict the synoptic pattern well in advance and how many forecasters, enthusiasts, and meteorologists alike were able to heed the warnings early on. We’re now seeing a complete quescent h5 flow dominate the country with a stuck TS florence underneath the highest heights. The rainfall totals and indunation will unfortunately continue as a result of course. Amazing to see this depiction.
  5. If you look closely right away - East of lets say Cape Canaveral, FL, you'll notice a little dry filament directly underneath, with a cyclonic rotation to the west of Florida. That is the TUTT that one could argue has been underestimated and responsible for imparting dry air/shear mitigating intensification. Then, when you look towards the very last few frames, you'll notice high level cirrus/outflow from Florence protrude southwestward "bullying" that TUTT's eastern periphery (maybe even helping to aid in Florence's most recent attempt at re-intensifying and restructuring its eye). The fact we've seen Florence slow down pretty significantly implies uneasiness.
  6. One thing that is a major concern and appears to exacerbate the flooding and monstrous rainfall potential, is the fact that a shift towards expansive heights across the Mississippi river valley/Midwest. NHC tagged that area across the NW Caribbean (invest 95L), and gives it a 60% chance of development into a tropical depression by potentially Friday. Via 200-300mb irrotational/diabatic outflow, its deposition of latent heat may contribute to the expansive heights, thus causing for further support for stalling and meandering. Then there is that shortwave - noted by Anthony M and discussed by the NHC, that sustains its position and renders substantial rainfall (Harvey-esque). A true disaster in the making. To make matters worse, we still may not know what is to come of it by early next week. Get us out of Hurricane season already!
  7. What is pretty scary is the fact that the stall and loop idea is very real. Just taking a look at H5 (QG diagnostic), we see that a ridge dominates the eastern 2/3rds of the country with a trough all the way back allocated towards the West. Then just taking a look at the 6z GFS for example, you can kind of see a bit of a retrogression of the western trough and basically cuts off from mean flow. Not a good look whatsoever, and harvey type event (terms of rainfall) is certainly on the table. Need Florence to be slingshotted fast enough and I try to convey that in the most conservative way possible to actually avoid that, but you still sacrifice a direct hit however. Again, it's flooding that is proven to be a number one killer in natural disasters. It's just very bad timing here given synoptic pattern and the situation we're in, geez.
  8. It's interesting as this morning, I was just plugging in the data to get a sense of how anomalous this ridge is. Taking for example, the 6z GFS, we can see that a height reading of ~594-597 decameters (pretty much all NWP shows a strong ridge within that range). Then, I wanted to see what the mean was for this summer taking the basic JJA months, and averaging its height. We see that around 40N, the average has hovered just around 5850m. Then I plugged in for Climo., and I got a similar average for the time period of 1981-2010. Then I wanted to check out some soundings for certain stations and I picked Long Island given its latitude and longitude. We see below that the MAX is 594dm on Sept 13th dating back to 1994 (small sample size unfortunately). The takeaway is that this upcoming ridge's strength exceeds not only Climo. relative to timeframe, but the positioning of where its been all summer and I can without a doubt, speak for everyone that its been rather relentless this summer (just look at the amount of 90's that has manifested across the region) and is a testament to its strength . Thus, chances have decreased dramatically that a recurvature takes place and a precarious situation is set to unfold, unless a dramatic shift occurs (looking unlikely, esp given current OBS of a track W/SW of due north and no clear evidence of LAT gain). Again, we obviously don't have the track set in stone as alterations are likely to occur, but an abnormal synoptic height field will yield an abnormal situation.
  9. Armando S

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Great insight @brooklynwx99! To futher add, we’re seeing a current weak SPV, easterlies persisting around 50mb and downwelling with westerlies evident around 10mb, but offers interesting support going forward for a continued Weak/avg and susceptible PV going forward for now. Looking forward to the discussions and tracking!
  10. Hello everyone! Just adding my "2cents" to the discussion from observations as of late. Typically, we tend to look upstream for winter in regards to tracking, so why not apply that methodology here.... The 18z GFS pretty much represents the consensus of NWP (have checked CMC, GEFS, EPS). Two main areas I've been watching; 1. British Canada and 2. Midwest (Gorden remnants/ S/W troff). Notice initially right at the beginning of the loop how the trough off BC begins closer to the 150W meridian, and towards the latter end of the loop ends up towards 120W. Also take note of the orientation of the trough axis, and how it goes from a meridional look to one that is more positively tilted yielding a semi-zonal flow . This has a downstream effect because whereas runs dating back to Sept 1st or so, we saw a more retrograded type look of the ridge further back west where you have a weak steering flow, and thanks to the Coriolis effect, Florence can find that weakness pocket. However, because of this noticeable trend (?), we're seeing a "push" of everything eastward, including diabetic processes from the remnants of Gordon embedded within a shortwave trough, that influences that anomalous ridge over the NW Atlantic. In turn, we thus see rather strong ageostrophic confluence (highlighted in yellow) on the backside of the long wave trough and it reflects an impressive ~1030-1034mb surface high that can ultimately traverse quickly enough to mitigate that weakness area and critical inflection point. What I suppose I'm trying to convey is that via synoptic pattern wise, the trends aren't good meaning this threat has "legs". P.S. - Looking forward to tracking this upcoming winter, great discourse, and more learning!
  11. Armando S

    April 15-16 Soaker/Interior Ice

    This is certainly one of the most impressive systems to impact such a large stretch of population and landmass that I can remember. The synoptic setup that had manifested came together perfectly! Currently an ideally depicted negatively tilted mid level trough with strong ageostrophic divergence downstream! Check out that diffluent flow. Great way to observe different entities within the meteorological world! That LLJ also is screaming in from the south so we’ll see some intense gusts mix down.
  12. Armando S

    March 20-22 Winter Storm Threat Part I

    Going to have some very robust ageostrophic divergence occurring given the QG forcing that'll manifest... tightening theta-e gradient, net positive differential thermal/vorticity advection orientation, low level jet (12z NAM below) nose bulging into region enhancing low level ascent, and lets not forget a 1030mb high "feeding" into the northeast/mid-atlantic (predicated by those darker shadings which represent very low RH %'s for this time of year). 1st image is DP's (left) and 925mb wind (right).. shows the vertical structure and imposition of that low level cold (T-bone!). 2nd image is the NAM's 925mb LLJ (check out that nose). Going to be quite the low level frontogenetical banding setting up. However, those not underneath this will experience adiabatic warming, subsidence, and well white rain as we should all know by now.
  13. Armando S

    Winter 2017-2018 -- The Encore

    It’d appear we’re seeing a shift somewhat towards a weaker lead max, and more concentration of vorticity on the backside of the longwave trough. The 18z gfs has clearly shifted towards a more meridional look at h5 regarding the ridge, as the retraction manifests throughout the Northern hemisphere (specifically the pacific). The idea would be to allow the trailing energy to consolidate in conjunction with a building poleward ridge so realistically we’d want the 2nd half of this stretch to become the focus. Excellent confluence being modeled amongst NWP by the way.
  14. Armando S

    Winter 2017-2018 -- The Encore

    Seek and thou shall find... ( ). It depends on how fast that ULL that is currently swinging and interacting with the what was the southern max, can allocate towards the 50/50 domain come early next week. The northern atlantic is congested so it’ll take some time. See how the GFS, EURO, and CMC (12z) valid next week show this, however it’s in the wave spacing that differences arise. Also, upstream plays a role, timing of the ejection of the s/w( how fast can heights push poleward over the western edge of the Plains), and that upper level trough just off Cali. Thankfully, we know the shortening wavelengths of March can compensate.
  15. Armando S

    Winter 2017-2018 -- The Encore

    #drippingpaint #wintercancellol