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Armando S

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Armando S last won the day on October 11 2019

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About Armando S

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    Springfield, NJ

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  1. Allow me to give you guys an upstream observation from yours truly. Check out this H7 LLJ (~70 knots) ramming poleward (speed convergence), juxtaposed (not coincidentally) with the low-level Fgen circulation. It's thumping here currently (mixing in with sleet and ZR, but been back and forth), and this is all happening in the RER of a ~160kt jet streak, so the Udiv is definitely robust! Not to mention, the PWAT's currently are >1-2 sigma relative to CFSR climo (79-09), where >2sigma in terms of PWAT's is found off the FL coast. This storm has a tremendous amount of theta-E (e.
  2. @NJwxguy78 Working on some rough ideas lol. Can't believe the threat for a week away, and this one has strong support.
  3. Ridiculous. The duration is absolutely astonishing. Event for the ages. 18z NAM 3k has this progged going into tomorrow afternoon.
  4. It isn't a bonafide snowstorm until we get the selfie from Tony. We're now official. NESIS high-end classification without a doubt.
  5. Last 6 hours of 850mb LLJ. Absolutely profound evolution aimed right at the NYC metro and surrounding areas. Don’t forget, the 700mb trough hasn’t even formed off NJ coast yet; therefore, the main quasi-stationary band and CCB have yet to even enter the scene. Unbelievable.
  6. @brooklynwx99 yeah, just noticed and tried to look into it. Check out axes of dilatation (i.e. stretching/deforming the air ambient parcels) paralleling the coast (if you compare with mixing mixing ratios, it makes complete sense as it parallels it); surface frontogenesis right off the NJ coast, and this isn't even the primary in full "control". Crazy!
  7. Indeed @NJwxguy78, just wait until we see the transfer complete, and the main area of circulation manifests with a coastal front establishing offshore. Just had to see and compare current mesoanalysis with CAM guidance, and RGEM leads the way, followed by 20z RAP, then 18z NAM. I can't wait to see once h7 trough shifts offshore, where that low-leveling deformation zone pivots (looking right over NNJ/SENY/NYC metro), then becoming eventually lateral-translating bands pushing N/NW as the cyclone further develops, and H5 closes off. Already hints of CSI banding. This storm is no joke.
  8. @Dsnowx53 cosign! One class (wx forecasting 2), my professor had us derive the snow ratios with supplied skew-t’s of different synoptic events, and come up realistic total snow accumulations with background info such as the QPF. Such a great way to learn!
  9. This image (misanalysis) speaks 1000 words: robust max seen traversing S. IL, strong NVA (strong confluent zone seen currently across SE Quebec into the upper portions of the NE), and notice the "ribbon" upstream of the main sort. max, already seeing the interaction with the polar jet. The heights in front (diffluence is remarkable downstream) are clear as day. This'll be a high-end, ranked NESIS storm. I mean, Chicago and NYC to see >6"+ already speaks volumes. I'm not crying, you're crying that I'm here in MS and you're all going to see snow... lots and lots of snow.
  10. From just observing from the "shadows", and keeping tabs on the event (classic meltdowns, fun PBP's, and other bgd discourse I read that was great with fun commentary), the complete waveguide (as i've been watching everything from pac to the conus) has shifted generally more meridional. It's like taking a figurative long rope, creating a wave with it as one would simply initially swing it vertically, creating that wave-motion; but you take the entire person and the rope, and tilt it equatorward (i.e. person is standing on a tall platform and then doing it - you get a stronger meridional compon
  11. Well, 3rd time is the charm, am I right? The synoptic evolution preceding this, and during, renders a very impact and high-potential situation here with an anticyclonic wavebreak over S. Quebec, polar max digging into base of Pac s/w, longwave trough, and just enough of a shortened wavelength ridge out west to get a strong surface cyclone to manifest. Somewhere east of Apps are going to get hit hard, but this just has that “look”; the ingredients are literally there. Haven’t seen an evolution with hemispheric support in a minute.
  12. Hey all, Found some time to briefly analyze & monitor the window of opportunity next week for the M.A./NE. So, essentially, It appears we're seeing a bit of convergence towards the ECM/UK/GEPS "camp", where the GEFS (d(prog)/d(t) last 14 runs), shows that convergence towards an inflection point ~ Sunday AM; this inflection point is the position, tilt, and location of the TPV lobe/ULL in Saskatachwan/Alberta, CA. I quickly annotated both 12z EPS and OP juxtaposed, to show what i'm referring to. Notice the tilt and location; this allows just enough downstream heights to "perk", w
  13. Take two. Another under WWA until 10am central. It’s a wintry mix given temp. distribution in the vertical up to the lower levels, but this is ridiculous here lol. I mean, who would’ve thought. Lol
  14. Good morning all from Starkville, MS! Yep, Mississippi that is, where i’m at currently finishing up my degree, and already my semester begins today, although classes have already been cancelled! Crazy, right!
  15. Woke up to pancake-sized aggregates coming down moderately. Won’t be long until sleet will be mixing in as the rain/snow line via CC is quickly approaching. Gorgeous out there!
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