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Armando S

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Armando S last won the day on August 4

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About Armando S

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  1. LOL i can’t believe it’s happening! Thanks geoff for the networking connection as well, much appreciated! My phone is relentless at the moment and yeah, Mike Seidel baby!!!
  2. Confirmed recognition... lol. Insanity! Thanks for the shoutout!
  3. Yep, John and company (nymetro)’s gif and illustration match up nicely to upstream synoptic changes. I put this compilation together actually to better illustrate the reason for a pretty notable negative period of a -EPO (values exceeding -120) . Anticyclonic rossby wave breaking (a “P2” meridional configuration), which create eddy fluxes underneath, which allow PV fractures to cut off from the mean flow (shown via dynamic tropopause height in accordance with color as blue = colder and vice-versa). This initially establishes a rex block. Then it’s all reinforced via diabatic and irrotational outflow processes from west pacific monsoon troughing and soon-to-be typhoons -> “fuel” the jet extending off East Asia, which begins to break.
  4. Would you look at that; the month of August is upon us, the Atlantic MDR and in general are benign for the time-being, aside from invest 96L (becoming disrupted) and a wave pushing off the Africa (~ 25W) and we owe this to hostile background state and unfavorable intraseasonal variability for the time-being, and broad zonal flow/dry pattern for the CONUS. Oh, and would you look at that via CFS monthly showing an "unusual" "friend" beginning to reveal itself .... Hope all and everyone are doing well and enjoying their summer!
  5. Some activity stirring up in the Eastern Pacific after a relatively slow start. Great "in-situ" example of a passing CCKW just ahead of the MJO wave, which enhances cyclogenesis 1-3 days after the initial passage. Attached is a side-by-side comparison of a VP200 hovmoller (filtered) edited by the great Phillipe Pappin (Atmospheric scientist for U.S. Naval research Lab) and to the right is the same exact premise, except unfiltered and shows an actual visualization of the CCKW (blues/purples = areas of convection/upper level divergence). 60% of formation over the next few days into a tropical depression. Conducive ambient conditions for more organization so we'll see where this goes.
  6. Thought I'd share some of the observations and "in-situ" data i've both collected and monitored. The late April into early/mid-May featured a violent, robust, and severe weather outbreak the U.S. hasn't seen in years! The synoptic and larger-scale forcing that had transpired leading up to this aforementioned period, in a way, dictated the inevitable collapse of the pacific jet-stream giving way to a meridional orientation. If we also look at the 90-day averaged OLR anomaly, we can see what has kind of been both the "elicitor" and overall background base state "signal". Poleward of that standing convective "hotspot" (which to add, still think this weak-Nino doesn't erode and give way to Nina so quickly like some are already presuming), we've gotten some anomalous jet extensions poleward of these ridges. In essence, what i'm trying to show from again - my limited knowledge thus far in this area (albeit a significant boost in comprehension and understanding thanks to some of you guys in here!), and as stated - "in-situ" learning via trial and error, of how we could predict the catalyst for breakdown and retrogression of the RWT. I've taken consecutive zonal/integral AAM tendency plots and just annotated on them via a GIF. Basically, what is shown initially is an episode we had back in April/May as spoken above. It's known that these episodes, or periods, happen over ~ 30-50-day time scales, with even specified periods happening potentially between 10-20 days. On that note, what dynamic variations can speed up such episodes? Anyhow, we can see the poleward U-wind accelerations propagating poleward from the tropics into the mid-latitudes over time before not long, -U shows up south of this poleward propagating westerlies, therefore, an expected breakdown and soon-to-be retrogressed process that'll take place over the next week exactly like what had transpired back in May. Notice the jet-extension thus far beginning June 1st. The last image has been annotated from IBM Chief Met. David Gold, which he discussed the overall "framework" of this synoptic forcing event, but going back to my original content - this entire series of tropics-extratropics interaction via utilizing the GSDM, can we possibly only get better at monitoring these real-time components and forecasting at certain lead times, like lets say, over 2 weeks? We can garner clues and deduce some ideas, but what also makes this tough as i've come to learn, just as the experts here already know, there is so much more to this than just oversimplification that i've presented. This base-state has had a role, and if this -VP200 weren't the way it's now; therefore, the sub-seasonal atmospheric variability would be different. This implies different propagating circulations, and reflecting AAM torques likely. Basically, the premise of this post was to, again, share my observations and have it open for fantastic discourse because it's interesting, and rather "mind-blowing", that many forecasters, meteorologists, experts, etc., have come this far in an imperfect science and still have so much to learn. However, if we can just gain an "advantage" little by little, it can only bring us closer to constructing a more "polished" forecast for long range lead-times.
  7. Excellent analysis, discussion, and conversation Isotherm and others (from the teleconnection thread as well - for some reason, I can't comment on there); Tom - excellent summer forecast as there is no such surprise with how superb you are in conveying and output!
  8. Absolutely ripping +SN and as @brooklynwx99 mentioned regarding cooling within the vertical; the rates increasing as a function of that mixing line maximizing ascent and therefore, cooling the column and keeping that line at "bay". We'll see how far north it makes it up, but then again, it also serves to really incite strong lift just poleward. Thank goodness for that Nova Scotia Sea Ice... or else we'd be absolutely screwed!
  9. Developing 850mb frontogenetical circulation and maturing rather quickly. This process via ageostrophic processes will establish your rapid cooling within the vertical column from surface up towards base of DGZ. Check out that robust LLJ gradient yielding speed convergence only helping to magnify this process as we head into this evening. Right on the “nose” of it. We’ll see some immense rates right within that “battle zone” and see sudden flips to snow.
  10. Check out the Nam’s 850/700 vorticity; certainly a shift in the depiction of 850mb vort as it essentially closes off further south thus allowing an advantage for stronger baroclinicity to occur and more dynamical cooling aloft via omega and upper level divergence via upper level jet streak. H7 verbatim has even shifted further south and west with a more cyclonic curvature indication. Insane low level f-gen circulation as well.
  11. Yes, @CCB! basically hit the nail right on the head. You have with what appears, to be a drastic and notable shift in not only thermodynamic structure, but kinematic "playing field". Below is the NAM wet bulb temps with a noticeable cyclonic circulation off the delmarva, and along this thermal boundary (dividing line), you have 1. DPVA and some mid-level deepening aiding in noticeable curvature offshore in a diffluent pattern 2. increasing theta-e gradient 3. ostensible vertical velocity (700mb) between ~ 6z - 9z Friday night/Sat... Going to catch people off-guard most certainly beginning with tomorrow morning's event...
  12. I believe this fully, and am not surprised by this trend if you look at the last several runs of the NAM 3km/12km with respect to the f-gen circulation intensity/magnitude. You can even see the responsive sinking via 700mb T. adv. Really no shortage of CVA either currently occurring in conjunction with robust QG-forcing (moisture/warm advection) streaming from South/Gulf area. So far, i'm liking what i'm seeing for the areas that have been shafted since Nov. I mean, look at this upper level jet with tons of ageostrophic flow and general embodiment of the south. It's this UPJ that will enhance your surface/ageostrophic flow, and looking at real-time obs, it's hard to not like what is unfolding.
  13. @Isotherm Thank you! To answer your question, no - here is the link. Indeed they're very useful! Enjoy http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html
  14. @Isotherm wonderful post as always! Going over just some data today being that guidance, especially 12z in the long range displayed with what'd be verbatim - an actually conducive h5 pattern - atypical of what we've seen thus far for a stretch. I began to check some of the "governing" facets that may or may not make those depictions true. Sure enough, it appears as you've already stated, that across the 30N belt, we're beginning to see a diminished depiction of net easterlies (sub-tropical highs - not what we want for NE cold/snow prospects) in conjunction with net westerlies (added momentum) seen at the 40-55N belt (impedes mid-latitude anticyclones from fully propagating poleward into subpolar/arctic domains, therefore, limiting any amplification and continuing the same theme). With apparent cross-equator rossby wave dispersion and interaction (MJO), favorably placed -VP, OLR, u850/200 current with lagging, it just makes sense to see something like what 12z NWP printed out today, post 25th. Even checking out the SOI index, we can see the net negative values accumulating in intervals and via this graph below shows its significance of a southward drop, relative to the timeframe seen as well (back to mid Jan). For one, i've seen some of the organic methods to a > -20 point drop, and there is some merit for sure, towards positioning the mean trough towards the East with an equator-ward adjusted STJ, therefore and hopefully, imparting net easterlies above 40N. Interestingly enough, if you take an EOF composite here that blends the going forecast (CFS) and real-time obs., of the zonal winds at 850/200mb and outgoing long wave radiation (also seen occurring presently), you get a 500mb composite of this below. I'd say early March offers quite something that we've failed to see come to fruition!
  15. This setup relative to the last two probably has the "best" favorable working kinematics going for it in terms of frozen precipitation (snow) vs. rain. Last 8 runs of the GFS shows a developing and more noticeable confluent flow and even the angular momentum (notice towards latter half of gif you see that kink in the isobars) is decompressing the flow downstream, which helps to keep the flow over Mid-Atlantic from buckling too much via WAA compelling the low levels. Even the ageostrophic component to this (i.e. - 250mb upper level jet) not only shows a pretty favorably placed right rear entrance region, but, note where the right LEFT exit region is superimposed.
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