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Armando S

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Armando S last won the day on October 11

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  1. It’s a topic still relatively “young”, but i’ll allow you and others interpret it plus, it’s also a relatively small sample size with a non-trivial correlation. @Analog96, yes 77-78.
  2. I’m surprised no one has posted Sam Lilo’s MQI phase (QBO averaged within the strat). Not only 95-96, but 78 and 02 as well heading into its Easterly phase and downwelling. However, regarding last year’s QBO structure heading into December; the premise behind why the SPV was weakening drastically and rendered unstable was because below ~45mb, easterlies were present. Above, the westerly +U was present and emerging while downwelling, therefore, the SPV became highly susceptible to wave activity flux and perturbations. So it was that transition that allowed a feedback to manifest, where we saw the stratosphere warm robustly -> Troposphere lapse rates increased/ambient environment cooled -> tropical forcing sustained in the “Nina” phases keeping the MJO and convection active with persistent net -AAM torques. This time around we have the actual opposite QBO structure and from an objective standpoint; it predisposes a more favorable “receptive” troposphere from analogs and research in conjunction with an interesting solar min aggregate study from Dr. Crawford coined “black sheep theory”. It pertains to the NAO and the influence solar min. years has, but more so the lag component. This winter, as some have mentioned has conflicting signals, should still turn out interesting given all that I’m seeing.
  3. Nicely done! If you know your r-value, do you mind sharing what it was (i.e. how strongly positive was it?). Just to add, the PMM along a normal distribution curve falls in the upper quartile (Q3 = >75%) translating to ~ >2 standard deviations above the mean in not only just for all SEPT. values, but also all monthly values dating back to 1950. That is a robust stat.
  4. The discussion regarding the IOD and the low frequency waves with constructive/destructive interference were fantastic and that got me doing some research. I wanted to see what the -VP in the upper height field this year from Jul1st to Oct 1st from last year, and this year (comes up short of Oct given the lag delay of data being added to NCEP reanalysis). I compared the SST's as well. What continues to stick out to me is the concentration and spatial orientation of the warm anomaly's; both surface and 150m depth, averaged 4-month progression (underneath). Notice that stripe of +SST's east of Asia, but longitudinally there is a smoothed anomaly, compared to that of this year with more of a "blob" depiction and confined. The striking aspect really, is the -VP field; there is a wavenumber 2 pattern evident with a max west of the dateline as well from last year. This persisted into the ensuing winter, a -AAM base-state followed, and a downwelling +QBO/transitioning phase situation manifested. This all led to an early SSWE in December, and that all rendered a feedback loop where the troposphere-stratospheric pathways resulted in an unfavorable synoptic-scale rossby wave train with a tenacious Nina tropical forcing paradigm from Dec into Feb. This year? Vastly different. Not only do we see more concentration of warmer Eq. SST's (thermocline as well via subsurface) towards the C.Pac, but that -VP field resembles more of a +ENSO/modoki-esque structure. As formidable the rising max is, note the sinking branch across the MC this year. Simply put, despite the -AAM/Nina GWO structure currently with sub-tropical ridges across the Mid-latitudes (remember we had this last year, but later in autumn and continued), the ocean's spatial pattern IMO at this stage, is propitious to establish a more favorable coupling. The other reason is the +IOD. (Note the differences in the subsurface between this and last year. More off-equator warmth and especially towards the W.Pac compared to this year - right). These are all the +IOD years since 1960 when reliable records began.To the left is the Pac. basin and to the right is a view of what the -VP was across the Asian continent and IO. Notice the similarities from this composite of years, to this year since July (which makes sense given what a typical +IOD VP field would look like) and also to add, we've hit now the 3rd strongest IOD event since 1981. Here is the difference, again to last year of the IO to support my statements. Why do I keep bringing up last year? It's because the disconnect of GSDM proxies seem similar, but different spatial circumstances regarding anomalies. Maintaining this +IOD and the SSTA composite across the Pacific right now - relative to last year is hard to not like in the very least. All the above implies keeping the tropical signal in the “favorable” phases, or actively consistent bearing any drastic change. If you throw in the QBO state and its negative downwelling combined with a very low solar MIN year (even lower than last year), preliminary speaking (also mere speculation from this point), I'll admit I like where we stand to setup the next several months.
  5. Concur and nicely/simply summed up. I’ll look at the SOI index just to“cross-check” with other data (SOI tends to have a “tunnel vision” perspective and can miss out on the “bigger picture”), but this is a pretty formidable consistent negative stretch via MJO/WWB. This also supports a jet extension, therefore, we should see an amplification to the mid-level pattern and some of NWP are showing just that towards the end of the month.
  6. Hey All! Believe it or not, I'm currently ~10 miles south of St. Augustine and yes, it's crazy here lol. Had "sailor's" skies last night and early this morning and it was gorgeous! Anyway, leaving today, wish I could track, but have to get back home bearing no cancellations! 15 run *48-hr linear height trend* from the GFS. We can see the significant height alteration in the circled areas as shown: MCS and S/W trough already imposing its influence on the western periphery of the atlantic ridge and will continue to erode and lessen that gradient (added H7-H4 DCVA next to 500mb chart to show). ATCF track shift via naval lab from VA. Great way to show the trend!
  7. LOL i can’t believe it’s happening! Thanks geoff for the networking connection as well, much appreciated! My phone is relentless at the moment and yeah, Mike Seidel baby!!!
  8. Confirmed recognition... lol. Insanity! Thanks for the shoutout!
  9. Yep, John and company (nymetro)’s gif and illustration match up nicely to upstream synoptic changes. I put this compilation together actually to better illustrate the reason for a pretty notable negative period of a -EPO (values exceeding -120) . Anticyclonic rossby wave breaking (a “P2” meridional configuration), which create eddy fluxes underneath, which allow PV fractures to cut off from the mean flow (shown via dynamic tropopause height in accordance with color as blue = colder and vice-versa). This initially establishes a rex block. Then it’s all reinforced via diabatic and irrotational outflow processes from west pacific monsoon troughing and soon-to-be typhoons -> “fuel” the jet extending off East Asia, which begins to break.
  10. Would you look at that; the month of August is upon us, the Atlantic MDR and in general are benign for the time-being, aside from invest 96L (becoming disrupted) and a wave pushing off the Africa (~ 25W) and we owe this to hostile background state and unfavorable intraseasonal variability for the time-being, and broad zonal flow/dry pattern for the CONUS. Oh, and would you look at that via CFS monthly showing an "unusual" "friend" beginning to reveal itself .... Hope all and everyone are doing well and enjoying their summer!
  11. Some activity stirring up in the Eastern Pacific after a relatively slow start. Great "in-situ" example of a passing CCKW just ahead of the MJO wave, which enhances cyclogenesis 1-3 days after the initial passage. Attached is a side-by-side comparison of a VP200 hovmoller (filtered) edited by the great Phillipe Pappin (Atmospheric scientist for U.S. Naval research Lab) and to the right is the same exact premise, except unfiltered and shows an actual visualization of the CCKW (blues/purples = areas of convection/upper level divergence). 60% of formation over the next few days into a tropical depression. Conducive ambient conditions for more organization so we'll see where this goes.
  12. Thought I'd share some of the observations and "in-situ" data i've both collected and monitored. The late April into early/mid-May featured a violent, robust, and severe weather outbreak the U.S. hasn't seen in years! The synoptic and larger-scale forcing that had transpired leading up to this aforementioned period, in a way, dictated the inevitable collapse of the pacific jet-stream giving way to a meridional orientation. If we also look at the 90-day averaged OLR anomaly, we can see what has kind of been both the "elicitor" and overall background base state "signal". Poleward of that standing convective "hotspot" (which to add, still think this weak-Nino doesn't erode and give way to Nina so quickly like some are already presuming), we've gotten some anomalous jet extensions poleward of these ridges. In essence, what i'm trying to show from again - my limited knowledge thus far in this area (albeit a significant boost in comprehension and understanding thanks to some of you guys in here!), and as stated - "in-situ" learning via trial and error, of how we could predict the catalyst for breakdown and retrogression of the RWT. I've taken consecutive zonal/integral AAM tendency plots and just annotated on them via a GIF. Basically, what is shown initially is an episode we had back in April/May as spoken above. It's known that these episodes, or periods, happen over ~ 30-50-day time scales, with even specified periods happening potentially between 10-20 days. On that note, what dynamic variations can speed up such episodes? Anyhow, we can see the poleward U-wind accelerations propagating poleward from the tropics into the mid-latitudes over time before not long, -U shows up south of this poleward propagating westerlies, therefore, an expected breakdown and soon-to-be retrogressed process that'll take place over the next week exactly like what had transpired back in May. Notice the jet-extension thus far beginning June 1st. The last image has been annotated from IBM Chief Met. David Gold, which he discussed the overall "framework" of this synoptic forcing event, but going back to my original content - this entire series of tropics-extratropics interaction via utilizing the GSDM, can we possibly only get better at monitoring these real-time components and forecasting at certain lead times, like lets say, over 2 weeks? We can garner clues and deduce some ideas, but what also makes this tough as i've come to learn, just as the experts here already know, there is so much more to this than just oversimplification that i've presented. This base-state has had a role, and if this -VP200 weren't the way it's now; therefore, the sub-seasonal atmospheric variability would be different. This implies different propagating circulations, and reflecting AAM torques likely. Basically, the premise of this post was to, again, share my observations and have it open for fantastic discourse because it's interesting, and rather "mind-blowing", that many forecasters, meteorologists, experts, etc., have come this far in an imperfect science and still have so much to learn. However, if we can just gain an "advantage" little by little, it can only bring us closer to constructing a more "polished" forecast for long range lead-times.
  13. Excellent analysis, discussion, and conversation Isotherm and others (from the teleconnection thread as well - for some reason, I can't comment on there); Tom - excellent summer forecast as there is no such surprise with how superb you are in conveying and output!
  14. Absolutely ripping +SN and as @brooklynwx99 mentioned regarding cooling within the vertical; the rates increasing as a function of that mixing line maximizing ascent and therefore, cooling the column and keeping that line at "bay". We'll see how far north it makes it up, but then again, it also serves to really incite strong lift just poleward. Thank goodness for that Nova Scotia Sea Ice... or else we'd be absolutely screwed!
  15. Developing 850mb frontogenetical circulation and maturing rather quickly. This process via ageostrophic processes will establish your rapid cooling within the vertical column from surface up towards base of DGZ. Check out that robust LLJ gradient yielding speed convergence only helping to magnify this process as we head into this evening. Right on the “nose” of it. We’ll see some immense rates right within that “battle zone” and see sudden flips to snow.
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