PB GFI

For some reason I thought he was 50 miles NW based on his post ( move that 50 miles ) . The context of dicey on the Euro meant move that precip 50 miles W and it get slippery back there. It`s light precip with low level cold air, it`s hard to scour even though the mid levels are torched.

I believe Mugs is about 50 miles NW of NYC. 30/27 there , he may have speaking in terms of snow, but I am speaking to slippery going. It's a matter of deepening and dynamics for his sake The GFS and UKIE mid levels are colder and because it digs that vort underneath. I posted away that I like this for SNE , but that said the Euro looks nothing like it did 3 days ago , so I agree you would like to see it 1st as the EPS hints at it.

Brother , take a look at the Euro B/L and DP`s , it gets dicey underneath at 114.

And heading back by the 22/23 , which is right on schedule.

Looks like a HV / SNE event to me.

Man , temps crash

Helluva warm up huh , well anyway I really like this from the H/V into SNE

Michael Clark ‏ @Met_mdclark 51m51 minutes ago More If we simply take the week 2 CPC analogs and roll them into Jan we certainly get a very interesting look esp with blocking in the higher latitudes. There is a lot of support a step down process to extreme cold starts ~23rd DEC & beyond. Esp. into mid Jan. #natgas #energy

Amazing Doug. I agree in the longer range , I think the trough axis will lean through the lakes by d15

The individual days from the 23rd onward are pretty sweet in terms of cold. The 5 day mean should give you an idea of how fast the pattern reverses itself and where it's going through Christmas.

Again, the GEFS keeps winning It placed the trough through the lakes which is where it should be with a ridge through AK.

Sigh!

Like what`s coming around the backside too.