PB GFI

@rb924119 you and I PM really often and we`ve spoken about the pattern ad nauseam, I wanted to make sure you did not feel attacked in here. I think we`ve had 20 PM`s during this period and haven`t agreed but have been respectful. If you felt attacked, my apologies.

Where did I attack anyone ?

Posting that we return to N in the 10 - 15 after we just were just BN is not complex. We did not shade warm between the 17th - 22th as the NEG rolled in even with a POS /AAM burst and huge POS over HB , why would shade AN ( when the call is return to N ) a trap. Now we identified 7 days of AN but a few days after the models break that down. Again it`s not about being dug in, the EPS/GEFS/GEM ensembles erase that massive pos around day 10. And if we " shade warmer " is that a bust or trap from " Normal ". It`s an argument that no one else is having but rb.

I am just making sure no one else is reading that we are going into the abyss for 30 days is all.

" It is still Polar Pacific air , but by day 10 the EPS tries to get us back to a winter like regime after the next 7 AN days. " The EPS 2m are N in the 10 - 15 , don`t think I posted past that period. So in early Feb, Normal 2m`s are winter like right ? Yes Does " Pacific air " denote Arctic air ? No Again were is the trap there ? The last 5 days have been BN We corrected to a colder regime until we had an AAM spike blew that up , that gets routed out of Canada after d 10

Thanks Grace, @Webberweather told me to ignore the 8 into 1 idea, he said the CFS was too robust and that the wave would die off. So the very end of the corrections didn`t come to pass, but it`s hard to be perfect all the way through. I see the bust in the partial idea, but I do see some good in there as well. Fireguy didn`t and that`s kool.

Dude I am starting to think there is something wrong with you , what " trap " are you talking about ? The guidance is spitting out pieces of the Vortex out of Alaska that has " Pac air in it ". Where is the trap ?

The EPS ejects pieces of the Vortex into the GL/EC around day 10. It is still Polar Pacific air , but by day 10 the EPS tries to get us back to a winter like regime after the next 7 AN days.

That top correction was right tho no ? So the MJO doesn`t go into 1 like I bought into on the CFS and I don`t think that`s any form of gymnastics when the call of a non rotation in 6 was right , we didn`t go back into 4/5/6 like some thought, the rotation into 7 was right and we may in fact touch p8... , the killing of the SE ridge was right and in the end I was wrong about going into p1. I have no problem with the entire 2 weeks of ideas , we went from 30 days of plus 7 to 6 days of - 4 pretty much right on time ( not a bad turn around ) . All in all, I think it was a decent call and if p1 busted so be it.

Nah, have to disagree here. There were posters away who opined the MJO may get stuck in p6 and be there by end of the month. I argued 7 and 8. Here is what they saw and bit on. My idea was def into p7 and p8. The GFS touches 8 ,but def dies off. But that is a much better forecast than the masses away who thought the MJO would remain in p6 and in fact turn back into p5 because of the 32c water around Australia. Trust me the posts are ther. The CFS was wrong into1 but it def saw 7 and getting into 8 - my call , so it was ok. So that propagation turned more out correct. That forecast was made back on Jan 4th and no one thought the SE ridge would be squashed when I posting the SD maps for the time period of p7.

There are no posts alluding to sustained. That period may allow for another 7 day cold shot , with an active S Jet. This 7 days period had the temps not the storm.

This period was posted on back on Jan 4th, when it was plus 10, so this has been a nice turn around. 17 - 5 18 - 3 19 3 20 -6 21 -5 22 0 Today is slightly AN as are the next 5 days ( the killing of the SE was real ) The MJO going into p7 happened while the models in had it circling in p6. And we are very close to actually going into p8 by Sat before collapsing. The + AAM burst hurts the next 7 days but the cold returns. No one bought this 7 day period back on Jan 4th. ( I didn`t see the next 5 ) but it`s not locking in. I bet no one buys the colder anomalies will show up again in the 10-15

Hard to take anything off the table. Get inside 5 days and then if it`s E of the Miss then yes. Not at day 9

If 174 could bundle , more would come up. It would be a deeper system. We have a lot of time with this. I like seeing that even though not consolidated the models want to take this off the EC

And the Euro still turns the corner with a piece of energy at day 8