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PB GFI

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PB GFI last won the day on January 25

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About PB GFI

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  1. lol , god for bid man. Thunder and it poured, great for the lawn.
  2. Live CAMS and on June 3rd. They are hanging tough.... Killington Alta, Kirkwood,
  3. SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase early this afternoon, with strong to damaging winds likely the main risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...A small perturbation embedded within fast mid-level westerly flow will likely act to initiate convection across the higher terrain of western PA/MD and eastern WV in the next hour or two. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increased vertical development in the cumulus field across this region. Diurnal heating downstream of this initial development is well underway for much of the Mid Atlantic to the south of a front draped generally east-west across PA. Even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg will likely develop by early afternoon as temperatures continue to warm into and through the 80s in conjunction with a moist low-level airmass. Westerly winds will quickly strengthen with height through mid levels, with 40-50 kt likely around 700 mb per RAP forecast soundings and from upstream VWPs (KPBZ/KRLX). Related 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear will act to organize thunderstorms, and there is increasing concern that convection will grow upscale into a QLCS along/near the I-95 corridor in northern VA, MD, and eastern PA. Damaging winds would be the main threat if this mainly linear mode develops, although isolated large hail may occur with more discrete initial development. The potential for a tornado or two may also exist, mainly across eastern PA into NJ where low-level flow will be slightly more backed to southerly/southeasterly in the vicinity of a marine front.
  4. The lead cells are going to the push the boundary. The ones behind should maintain their severity and make it all the way through.
  5. Still though, how much we can destabilize along the western edge of the marine layer will be critical. Additionally, deep-layer shear may be able to overturn some of the marine air.
  6. I need to see one 3 foot Blizzard and one Tor ( No Damage ) and I will be satisfied.
  7. Yeh , should have said down in the Philly area. RAP values down that way later on are 3500 to 4000
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