PB GFI
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Foliage alert.
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I don`t want Siberian snow cover I want Canadian snow cover.
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WHY DO I LOVE FEB SO MUCH ? I like a blend of 02/03 09/10 14/15 WSI
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Ventrice
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This is clear and horrible confirmation bias. So no darts please , I am just bored.
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I like where the greatest U/M wants to center itself. You have to like the look of that ridging center in B/C but even more so just the W of Hudson Bay.
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education Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion
PB GFI replied to Snowy Hibbo's topic in Weather Spotlight
I think you are leaning one indicator here for a 5 month lead. -
education Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion
PB GFI replied to Snowy Hibbo's topic in Weather Spotlight
This is WAR. -
Cant wait until I am posting these maps 5 days out in Jan
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I didnt take it that way Hibb. I really do enjoy the many ways different ways forecasters come up with their predictions. Its what makes this board great. It's an expansive tool box for all of us that want to learn and or forecast.
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I have always weighed the Pacific heavily in my forecasting. I frequently look to the WPO / EPO and ultimately to the AO as a predictor of temperature anomalies. My approach is that the Pacific is a dominant force and my forecasting reflects that. My belief is find the best upward motion and you will find your 500 pattern. A cool / dry I/O grabs my attention because IMO if that signal remains strong the sinking air there will promote upward motion to its east. I believe it's near the D/L. So when I look at the warming between 150 and 180 I take a stand as to where the best upward motion should occur. I like the similarities in the fall of 02 and 14 here and I look to FEB as our best month. Those 500 maps are what I think could happen but are in no way the foundation of my forecast, rather just an ally.
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When I take a stance I naturally look for data that agrees with me. In my case, I look for agreement to the work and ideas. When the season ends I will go back examine if / what errors occurred but once a forecast is written in here I guess it's only natural to look for allies at 500.
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I like the cool water off Australia, the warming between 150 and 180 and the warm pool In the EPAC. Looks similar ( never exact ) at this range. I am looking for the best UM out near the DL
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