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PB GFI last won the day on January 25

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  1. I have highlighted 4 areas in the Pacific which early on I find encouraging early on. In area 1 you will find a slight Modoki signature . With the warmer anomalies near the D/L it should be the focus of increased convention there. I also like seeing where the warmer anomalies are showing up in areas 2 and 3. One is focused near the Aleutians and one OFF the coast of California. That's crucial IMO, because area 4 is cool and the greatest heat content is out near 140 still east of Hawaii and in a perfect spot. I like when I see negatives pulled that far back off the west coast ( that warm patch tells me theres a pretty good chance it could set up there ) because it allows for ridges to build through the Rockies and puts the trough axis in a pretty good spot along the east coast.
  2. Read previous post. My only point that I made 2 weeks ago is that I thought a very benign month long period was on it's way after the Hurricane miss in the SE. So I stand by that the next few weeks are uneventful.
  3. Yes for Mariners out over the Flemish cap.
  4. Which really doesn`t mean much, lol. Hopefully Tom will be in soon to overrule this.
  5. My thoughts are that Pacific is really AN and I mean most of it. Circled here in RED. I would love to focus on the area shaded in Gray ( 1.2 ) I am not sure if I can rely on UM near the dateline because I think even if that happens LP will seek out that warmer water off the WC which would kick the ridge up here. LP is going to want to find it's way out over those WPAC waters and the trough would want to spill out over and west of the Rockies early on IMO.
  6. I know it's September, but I do expect that look to remain intact as we get into December. That's just looks too fast for me early on and would in the end kick the ridge up in the east.
  7. This is a percent of average, first flake to last. For example, in Atlantic City the average is about 15 inches of snow per year, so the forecast for 125% of that would be a bit over 18 inches. There is an area of 150% from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Pittsburgh's average of 40 inches, so it says they should get about 60. You can see a large area of above normal, and it's tricky because if this works out to its full potential, there could be more over the East Coast. Also, the southern Rockies is a place where more may have to be forecasted, but for now I am relying on a drier idea to win out there. The Verdict The conditions in the oceans around the U.S. are ripe for major arctic outbreaks, but the early season, as has been the habit of late, is likely to start warm in the East. The worst-case scenario is a brutally cold old-fashioned winter. Precipitation should be plentiful again in the East given, the natural fight between the cold air to the west and the warm oceans to the east. The West looks warm, though the Euro would argue that the Pioneer is onto something, sticking more cold into the southern Rockies. Buckle up, there is going to be plenty of cold around with January-March being colder against the normals in the East than December-February. If you start late with the winter, you are liable to end late.
  8. 910 and 202 It's a 30 to 50 mile wife EF 4
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