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antmasiello_HM last won the day on November 22

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About antmasiello_HM

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    Anthony Masiello [HM]
  • Birthday 05/14/1985

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    Burlington, NJ

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  1. My expectations were for a low confidence 1-3" storm total here. So far, maybe a cool-surface coating this morning and nothing since. If I can pull off an inch, I'll take it and run.
  2. Just in case anyone was wondering: it's been mostly rain here in Burlington with this renewed precip. The DGZ took a hit with large subsidence from offshore convection. That should somewhat repair itself in the next couple of hours, but lol at my area...
  3. I'm puzzled why that is but snowstorms in this area do seem to cause a lot of drama and attention.
  4. A note about the forecasting leading up to today: it's okay to believe the NYC area wouldn't receive a snowstorm and tell us why. It's quite another to look for information to back up assertions. Confirmation bias plagues the long range world, particularly with people who feel they have to be consistent with their LR outlook (this isn't a good thing if you need to change it...Bayesian!) down into the MR. Looking for reasons instead of just accepting what's happening is easier said than done.
  5. Isentropic ascent from offshore convection plotted on 300K surface shows moisture adv. into DGZ levels over N/C NJ into this afternoon. And just like that, the radar filled in up there.
  6. Remember that your DGZ is up at 600mb or so and RH/wind at these levels (700-500mb) is of most importance right now if you want to see snow fill back to the west. The 850mb FGEN is a good thing, but it's not precipitating there yet because of what's happening above. Just need more time.
  7. If you are S/W of the pivoting band, you may not be totally out of the game. At some point, when mid level circulations are past your longitude, the flow will turn from westerly to northerly/northeasterly. The precip shield will become increasingly cyclonic and some snow will move back southward...but don't expect big amounts or anything.
  8. Here in northern Burlington County, it has been snowing for over an hour (temp ~ 34°F). It's always a tough spot in these pivoting band situations. Good luck to everyone.
  9. Let me be clear here: the conservation of angular momentum between the Earth and the Atmosphere is well understood. I wanted to see if maybe I was missing some indirect pathway Tamara was trying to make with that comment. And I apologize for not being clear and simply saying, "I do not understand that last sentence." Deceleration of the polar night jet is controlled by upwelling wave activity in the surf zone. These can intensify the meridional circulation and produce effects throughout the globe on the zonal wind. The stratospheric wind will intensify if the T-gradient intensifies and wave activity reduces. Certain states of tropical forcing can certainly bring patterns that amplify the stationary wave flux and/or produce transient resonance. But, as worded by Tamara, as a tidy conservation between the Tropics and the stratosphere, is incorrect.
  10. I have friends on this forum; I have friends on other forums. I have friends who aren't on forums. The easiest way to stay in touch with many of them has been through twitter, despite the efforts of each forum and all the twitter-snark. In addition, for my job, I have to drive/travel a lot and be out in the field. It just became very easy to talk weather this way and with everyone all at once that I enjoy exchanging with. This doesn't mean I do not still read the forums. I have worked in operational forecasting, research/development and consulting. I've had jobs where I had to gather and present research papers/information, and I've had jobs where I had to develop new products. While presently I'm not in employed in the weather field, I was consulting for a time (not currently) and still keep up with things.
  11. Be careful here. This retrograding RW will induce upstream cyclonic wave breaking with time. The ridge between each and above each will change forms frequently, day-to-day, but the process is still a form of -NAO or blocking. The RW will arrive here 12/3-12/6. Each run will change how each low breaks and how each wave interacts with each other. Don't go too crazy here with defining what style the NAO is at a particular time. Just watch the full process and avoid the noise.
  12. The shifted west tropical forcing from traditional Niño, or even Modoki, has created a stronger Subtropical High in western Pacific / Hadley. This has promoted the return of the "Kamchatka Low" which enhances the stationary wave. This creates an environment in the North Pacific of a retracted zero-wind line, frequent RWD and bouts of Alaskan Highs. The low freq state will take jabs here and there, but this "cell," in the western Pacific will have to be contended with regardless. From processes I described on Twitter with the Atlantic RWB behavior, we will have a classic -NAO retrograde sequence with upstream cyclonic wave breaking. The 12/3-12/6 time frame for a winter storm is legit.
  13. Hey Tom. I did not favor a warm Nov or Dec. I thought the effects of the NPO-induced cold would first start out West in December; and when the NAO eventually relaxes for a time, we would get some warmth before the holidays from the SE ridge (I wouldn't call it a "breakdown," as much as a relaxation). But, eventually, that cold would return as well as the -NAO late Dec. I'm finding that timing the processes has been a little tougher than usual this year. Part of the problem is the split flow regime and active wave pool with clear polar to mid lat transports. The +NPO period may flip sooner than I originally thought.
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