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About antmasiello_HM

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    Anthony Masiello [HM]
  • Birthday 05/14/1985

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    Mount Laurel, NJ

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  1. I'm a fan of Westerly QBO La Niñas, actually, and this year could have been one. But, the system is just too Niño. The Walker Cell remains weak; the IOD is symptomatic of this continuing regime enhanced by the warm season +QBO. But, the modoki background state and easterly shear phase of QBO could produce quick winter onset. The Plains collectively says, "duuuuh."
  2. Let it snow. How are the La Niña forecasts looking?
  3. Nice. Do you agree that the spread increased a bit?
  4. There's definitely a reduction in QPF from the previous runs; but, you have to watch total QPF comparisons that include previous events (e.g. today's front and Friday).
  5. Thanks. The timeline here is far from ideal for this area. Even if somehow the CCB / nor'easter ends up a little more strung out (rounds of rounds of convection in the base of this trough could still do that, although it's not favored right now), it seems like this area is going to take a nasty impact regardless.
  6. The soundings on both the NAM and GFS down here are become rather alarming. Not only are they bringing this period between 00z-12z 3/21, but this is when enough of a low-level wind picks up to carry away the latent heat from ZR. The entire sub -8°C layer not saturated with low-level lift and small >0°C layer is a nasty look.
  7. My hunch is this FGEN band tomorrow clears the entire I-95 corridor with a burst of +SN/IP to NYC. The soundings down my way get icy just as the sun is setting. Looks like ideal ZR soundings throughout the night. Ugh.
  8. As long as the 50-50 moat, as I've been calling it, holds firm, the first wave must dampen as it encounters the confluence (to what degree is still uncertain). It is deeply rooted in high theta-e and the STJ but will succumb to increasing hostility from upstream/downstream waves. Pretty unique way to extend a time a coastal storm hangs out.
  9. I don't mean to interrupt the fantastic teleconnection discussion; but, the N Pac situation to me is classic constructive interference. This in turn adjusts the wave guide to tilt more to the right, slowing the flow over the CONUS / enhancing transient western ridge. The decreasing background u-wind over the CONUS will favor cyclonic wave breaking and wave interaction. A possible trend towards a 1984 scenario cannot be discounted yet in a background state like this. And by that I mean that an extension of the 50-50 low/low anomaly moat over E Canada could get involved. The situation since the first -NAO tank and destruction of the night jet has been equatorward wave propagation and split flow. Believe it or not, the Atlantic is actually influencing the wave pool over N. Amer/Pac more than you would think. This is a classic feedback.
  10. A quick follow-up: the COD analysis per the obs seems way off, but the NAM may be too deep. Here's Victor's analysis. See, Twitter is not so bad. I like his analysis here:
  11. I'm not sure what's wrong and if it matters. So please take it with a grain.
  12. To be honest, I don't remember the modeling behavior of either. But was it a situation where you had no idea this pattern/situation could produce and suddenly it did within a couple days? Or, was it a situation that you were monitoring and eventually the wave trended favorably for snow?
  13. And really, our models are doing a good job. At no point, did it ever become unanimous for a seaward track or a pattern that 100% supports that solution. Yes, for a while, it was the GFS with the westward solutions. But the point is that as a forecaster, your rhetoric was influenced by knowing the potential each run (the varied solutions keep you grounded when communicating). Are there really 100% surprises anymore where a storm comes out of nowhere on solutions? Yes, we've seen the last-minute trends that bring storms and all those types of situations; but, have we truly had a case where a storm suddenly appeared within a couple days? I'm sure I'm forgetting something, but it's not a common occurrence. It used to be more common.
  14. What didn't make sense to me was the rationale by some. This idea that a model "bails" or "caves" is really bad science. It can mess with your brain and make you throw in the towel at times when you shouldn't. Solutions really are brand new each run and the human makes sense out of them.
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