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antmasiello_HM

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antmasiello_HM last won the day on December 20 2019

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About antmasiello_HM

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    Anthony Masiello [HM]
  • Birthday 05/14/1985

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  1. IOW, there were not many warmer spectrum ENSO Decembers that did what 2019 did and had the evolution of late Dec/early Jan like we're expecting this year. For example, 2014 by this point was flipping the EPO script (NAO was not of course). 1986-87 is of course not mentioned to be a total winter analog as much as one of comparable evolution. Notice in the loop that the TPV does back up to Alaska for a while before resuming a more typical position. 1982-83, while looking similar for the whole month of December's composite, didn't actually do this kind of thing either at the end of Dec.
  2. On the topic of the "hype" about 1986-87, which was clearly directed at me (lolz), here's what I have to say about that. So, the idea of the month being run a certain way (Okhotsk-->Chuchki system interrupting the stronger vortex state from coupling and hostile spatial AAM profile) and suddenly looking like the early '90s by the end is actually kind of rare. Most of the "bad" years were running this way the entire time/late autumn. So while looking over the data, some years like 1982 and 1986 came up with a comparable evolution. There is really no year quite like 2019 where the TPV and a west NAO block advect each other towards Alaska (haha), but 1986 got mentioned. I mentioned the Chuchki High return and the tendency to develop a *typical* high altitude warming mid-winter (classic Niño), which is like 1986-87. Calling this hype is bullpoop. Here's a loop of the end of Dec, start of Jan in 1986-87 to see how the hostile TPV interacted with the Chuchki feature and subpolar highs. It led to a decent Scand response at the end of the loop/thereafter that brought a big period of snow/cold to the UK. Something like this is not expected in the next 10 days of course, but we have to watch mid-month for the potential of the ridge to be amplified here.
  3. This feature is the amplification of the stationary wave. The background state has given it some power, esp. with the periods of West Pac forcing. It prevents long duration +AO/WPO/EPO regimes. All sensible weather aside, you see the difference in the analogs over the pole between the big vortex years and years with the Chuchki. It's not necessarily the biggest influence on temperatures here unless combined with other factors. With a less hostile Pacific, you can pull off a 1958 or 1960 like response:
  4. Well, for starters, the time of year matters for the wave train response and what is statistically likely over the US. Being solely in a phase says nothing about the inertial state or changing state since the wave itself, its interaction with other forces, and its influence around the globe all can alter from event to event. Background states affect the way the MJO affects the wave trains and their influence on our weather.
  5. I'm not a fan of calling phases warm or cold. I'm also not a fan of isolating a region and treating as if it's the only region, like we've seen in some recent posts this evening. After all, the MJO explains like 25% of the variance. But anyway, the warm pool gets excited during the second week on those charts.
  6. This signal has been on the last few runs and fits with the classic tropospheric precursor pattern. It also fits with a classic Niño progression for a mid winter disturbance. The entire evolution with the TPV and this reminds me of 1987.
  7. The RMMs are reacting to higher frequency waves and multiple areas of forcing. This is why they sort of cut through the middle and eventually emerge into W. Pacific. The lower frequency signal will reach the central tropical pacific in the second week of Jan probably. I agree with Eric on that. Use Roundy's statistical guidance for a visual: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/ and more specifically:
  8. You've got a few things happening that are signals and not just model noise: 1. Retrogression through early Jan before momentum is added from an East Asian +MT then. 2. Coherent transient wave train across the North Pacific begins in a week which will amplify things then and beyond then. 3. Split flow with retrograding RW across the North Atlantic Early Jan is a time when the RW reaches our longitude with potentially enough beforehand to bring the baroclinic zone to the coast. So while we're coming out of a milder period, the right timing could work with this. Climo would favor interior vs coastal plain, however, with a retreating TPV and lack of big cold shot. I'm hoping for another lucky trace just after xmas, haha. The Northeast will not "torch," in this pattern but the variability will continue of course.
  9. Actually, I said it was almost time, not that it was time. It was the same day I said this:
  10. My expectations were for a low confidence 1-3" storm total here. So far, maybe a cool-surface coating this morning and nothing since. If I can pull off an inch, I'll take it and run.
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