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Everything posted by antmasiello_HM

  1. IOW, there were not many warmer spectrum ENSO Decembers that did what 2019 did and had the evolution of late Dec/early Jan like we're expecting this year. For example, 2014 by this point was flipping the EPO script (NAO was not of course). 1986-87 is of course not mentioned to be a total winter analog as much as one of comparable evolution. Notice in the loop that the TPV does back up to Alaska for a while before resuming a more typical position. 1982-83, while looking similar for the whole month of December's composite, didn't actually do this kind of thing either at the end of Dec.
  2. On the topic of the "hype" about 1986-87, which was clearly directed at me (lolz), here's what I have to say about that. So, the idea of the month being run a certain way (Okhotsk-->Chuchki system interrupting the stronger vortex state from coupling and hostile spatial AAM profile) and suddenly looking like the early '90s by the end is actually kind of rare. Most of the "bad" years were running this way the entire time/late autumn. So while looking over the data, some years like 1982 and 1986 came up with a comparable evolution. There is really no year quite like 2019 where the TPV and a we
  3. This feature is the amplification of the stationary wave. The background state has given it some power, esp. with the periods of West Pac forcing. It prevents long duration +AO/WPO/EPO regimes. All sensible weather aside, you see the difference in the analogs over the pole between the big vortex years and years with the Chuchki. It's not necessarily the biggest influence on temperatures here unless combined with other factors. With a less hostile Pacific, you can pull off a 1958 or 1960 like response:
  4. Well, for starters, the time of year matters for the wave train response and what is statistically likely over the US. Being solely in a phase says nothing about the inertial state or changing state since the wave itself, its interaction with other forces, and its influence around the globe all can alter from event to event. Background states affect the way the MJO affects the wave trains and their influence on our weather.
  5. I'm not a fan of calling phases warm or cold. I'm also not a fan of isolating a region and treating as if it's the only region, like we've seen in some recent posts this evening. After all, the MJO explains like 25% of the variance. But anyway, the warm pool gets excited during the second week on those charts.
  6. This signal has been on the last few runs and fits with the classic tropospheric precursor pattern. It also fits with a classic Niño progression for a mid winter disturbance. The entire evolution with the TPV and this reminds me of 1987.
  7. The RMMs are reacting to higher frequency waves and multiple areas of forcing. This is why they sort of cut through the middle and eventually emerge into W. Pacific. The lower frequency signal will reach the central tropical pacific in the second week of Jan probably. I agree with Eric on that. Use Roundy's statistical guidance for a visual: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/ and more specifically:
  8. You've got a few things happening that are signals and not just model noise: 1. Retrogression through early Jan before momentum is added from an East Asian +MT then. 2. Coherent transient wave train across the North Pacific begins in a week which will amplify things then and beyond then. 3. Split flow with retrograding RW across the North Atlantic Early Jan is a time when the RW reaches our longitude with potentially enough beforehand to bring the baroclinic zone to the coast. So while we're coming out of a milder period, the right timing could work with this.
  9. Actually, I said it was almost time, not that it was time. It was the same day I said this:
  10. My expectations were for a low confidence 1-3" storm total here. So far, maybe a cool-surface coating this morning and nothing since. If I can pull off an inch, I'll take it and run.
  11. Just in case anyone was wondering: it's been mostly rain here in Burlington with this renewed precip. The DGZ took a hit with large subsidence from offshore convection. That should somewhat repair itself in the next couple of hours, but lol at my area...
  12. I'm puzzled why that is but snowstorms in this area do seem to cause a lot of drama and attention.
  13. A note about the forecasting leading up to today: it's okay to believe the NYC area wouldn't receive a snowstorm and tell us why. It's quite another to look for information to back up assertions. Confirmation bias plagues the long range world, particularly with people who feel they have to be consistent with their LR outlook (this isn't a good thing if you need to change it...Bayesian!) down into the MR. Looking for reasons instead of just accepting what's happening is easier said than done.
  14. Isentropic ascent from offshore convection plotted on 300K surface shows moisture adv. into DGZ levels over N/C NJ into this afternoon. And just like that, the radar filled in up there.
  15. Remember that your DGZ is up at 600mb or so and RH/wind at these levels (700-500mb) is of most importance right now if you want to see snow fill back to the west. The 850mb FGEN is a good thing, but it's not precipitating there yet because of what's happening above. Just need more time.
  16. If you are S/W of the pivoting band, you may not be totally out of the game. At some point, when mid level circulations are past your longitude, the flow will turn from westerly to northerly/northeasterly. The precip shield will become increasingly cyclonic and some snow will move back southward...but don't expect big amounts or anything.
  17. Here in northern Burlington County, it has been snowing for over an hour (temp ~ 34°F). It's always a tough spot in these pivoting band situations. Good luck to everyone.
  18. Let me be clear here: the conservation of angular momentum between the Earth and the Atmosphere is well understood. I wanted to see if maybe I was missing some indirect pathway Tamara was trying to make with that comment. And I apologize for not being clear and simply saying, "I do not understand that last sentence." Deceleration of the polar night jet is controlled by upwelling wave activity in the surf zone. These can intensify the meridional circulation and produce effects throughout the globe on the zonal wind. The stratospheric wind will intensify if the T-gradient intensifies and wave ac
  19. I have friends on this forum; I have friends on other forums. I have friends who aren't on forums. The easiest way to stay in touch with many of them has been through twitter, despite the efforts of each forum and all the twitter-snark. In addition, for my job, I have to drive/travel a lot and be out in the field. It just became very easy to talk weather this way and with everyone all at once that I enjoy exchanging with. This doesn't mean I do not still read the forums. I have worked in operational forecasting, research/development and consulting. I've had jobs where I had to gath
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