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swamplover56

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  1. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Have a feeling we slowly see that get snowier and snowier as we move along. I think our first real chance is somewhere right around christmasChristmas
  2. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    There’s going to be a monster coastal sometime in January. Fun times ahead
  3. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Do you agree that after give or take Christmas we get into a more favorable period of snow? I have to say I’m very hopeful esp reading hibbo, John, Armando, iso, etc about the strat discussion and I remember the patience it took last year to finally get it in March. It would be pretty amazing to get what happened last March in January of this year
  4. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Well darn that basically punts December. Hopefully as hibbo states above we would be absolutely rocking for the four weeks from christmas til third week of January. Guess the waiting continues.
  5. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    I think the lead time has really messed with our heads on this one as most of us have now been tracking this for well over a week and there is still 5 plus days. We have seen models in the last 5 years be off by 100 miles the day of. Remember January of 15 the Manitoba mauler? Remember January of 16? Heck last January and the early March storm both had sizeable shifts within two days. While I don’t think a big snow storm is in the cards for the metro it’s certainly in the envelope of possible scenarios
  6. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Look at the height rises out ahead in the coast
  7. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Night and day at 500 pretty crazy the euro doesn’t usually make such a drastic jump in one run
  8. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Tantalizingly close
  9. swamplover56

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    I’m thinking about stepping away from the models for a few days as this Sunday storm is on life support and I think at this point we are just trying to put makeup on a pig. Happy for the Virginia folks though
  10. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Just illustrates how we still have such a large lead time 0z Monday is still 6 days away
  11. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Not very much confluence looks pretty good
  12. swamplover56

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    150 plus people on tracking a southern slider shows how geographically diverse the 33@rain community is
  13. swamplover56

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    15 was brutal I remember the 0z the night before the storm the nam went bonkers with 30” plus for nyc, then the gfs, which was steadfast at east and a general whiff held serve. We had been waiting for days for the gfs to cave and it just wasn’t budging. I don’t think there have ever been as many people up for the euro run that night. And again the euro held serve with the ridiculous 30” plus numbers for the metro. We all know how it turned out but actually prob overperformed with the overrunning getting around 6” during the day. By 10 pm we all saw what was going to happen. I’ll never forget tracking that one.
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