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Newman

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Newman last won the day on August 11

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  1. The look at the end of the run sure looks nice. East based blocking and a very nice PNA ridge. The trough in the east would verbatim be too zonal and flat for any explosive cyclogenesis/noreasters, but the lakes would get some early LES with the NW flow. The look will change, but right now the GFS wants a cooler pattern through Friday. Then a ridge builds in for Saturday through mid-week next week. Then a switch to troughing in the east.
  2. September data for the QBO and AMO are in as some have noted: - QBO dropped from 9.97 to 8.25 - AMO dropped from .335 to .242 SEP SST: Of note: - North Pacific is blazing warm - Warmth around Greenland and North Atlantic - Cooling in eastern ENSO regions is a bit more pronounced - Warmth around the dateline/Modoki region is more pronounced - Warm-cold-warm tripole in Atlantic is gone - Cool waters around Australia My SST analogs from August/September are still holding steady. No changes needed IMO: You get this look in winter:
  3. August AMO data came in. Still fairly warm: 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335 August QBO data. Did not drop too much from July: 2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 3.36 8.05 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 I had posted this somewhere else 3 weeks ago. My current view still stands: The core of the cold this winter will be centered around the Great Lakes. I like the SST look with 2003-04. The west based Modoki look is something we could see this winter. Throw in 2013-14 for a warm north Pacific and you get this: I also like the Atlantic look, with a warm-cold-warm tri-pole. Obviously the east based cooling of the ENSO regions matches closely to this year so far as well. With the warm waters around Hawaii and south of Alaska, you'd pump heights into the British Columbia region. The 500mb look with just those 2 years is this: However, lets throw in some more years that I've already discussed before: 1995-96 for the QBO, 2009-2010 for low solar, and 2004-05 for a warm AMO: Now going back to last winter, let's not forget that the upper Midwest was rather cold. To say the "raging PAC jet" cutoff all cold from the US is wrong. You had this SST and 500mb look: Clearly the problem was the orientation of the ridge stretching into and around Alaska. With it being SW to NE oriented, you dumped the cold into the west (which created all of those cut-off lows during the winter), and as a result kicked up the SE Ridge. Now, I'll admit that an overall warm Pacific for this coming winter could be troublesome. At this point in time, the warmer waters are a bit shifted east from last year (plenty of changes WILL occur heading into fall). So in a general sense, you'd kick the ridge - trough - ridge orientation a bit east. The western ridge could stretch into the British Columbia and NW US regions, the trough would dump into the Central states and Great Lakes area, and the SE ridge would likely be suppressed a bit further off shore and to the SE, aided by the cooler east ENSO regions. That would shift the storm track further east and off the coast, contrary to last year where the storms wanted to track along the gradient inland. Now, theoretically low-solar winters typically help with high latitude blocking and you throw in more easterly wind stress and perhaps a weak stratospheric vortex from the QBO and maybe we get some blocking? If that happens, the cold around the lakes would spill a bit east. Overall, we have to watch how the Pacific SST's behave over the next couple months. This is what I see as of right now for this winter (in a general sense):
  4. Comparing GEFS spaghetti plots, clear shift west: 12z 18z
  5. Busy with college. Luckily I'm home for labor day weekend to track this monster:
  6. More than half of the 18z GEFS members at least skim the florida coast with a landfall:
  7. ONI values are close and the progression into winter looks like what we could see this winter as well. Slightly warmer this year probably. However, I don't like how it came off a cold Neutral regime. Basically, this is what we have going into this winter (as of right now): 1. Warm neutral ENSO regime. 2. Regions 1+2 will be fairly cold, region 3 will be cooler, region 4 will be rather warm, and region 3.4 will be likely flushed neutral. 3. QBO will likely transition westerly to easterly entering winter (see 1995-96 as a very similar year). 4. Coming off a weak Nino winter/spring/early Summer. 5. Low solar activity. Is usually tied with positive influences with regards to high lat blocking. 6. Warm PDO/Pacific likely. Will the warm pool south of Alaska maintain and not migrate? We'll see. 7. Warm AMO/Atlantic likely. The July AMO value of 0.350 was the most positive value since Dec 2017. *All of this is preliminary thinking of course. But if I was forced to make a forecast RIGHT NOW, my initial thinking would an overall positive outlook for east coast snow weenies. LONG way to go though.*
  8. Not to sidetrack this thread but... The Pacific was much cooler in July 1993 compared to July 2019. However, the PDO was positive and the warmer ENSO waters were focused further west with cooling in the east regions. In those regards, there is similarities. But the majority of the PAC is warm compared to 1993. An another note, the AMO/Atlantic was very negative/cool in July 1993. This year is the complete opposite. Looking at Tuesday, the NAM is impressive with the severe parameters for much of the area. Just for kicks, here is NYC Tuesday at 21z:
  9. Does anyone know of a website/dataset that displays West Pacific ACE values by year? I can find Atlantic and East Pacific but have been unable to find West Pacific.
  10. Mount Holly: The same threats as mentioned in previous forecast packages still look to apply. First strong-severe winds will be possible particularly if the convective mode becomes linear or organized multicell, which certainly seems a possibility with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE,30 kts of 0-3km shear (for balancing cold pools), and organized forcing near the cold front. Secondly heavy rain and flooding will also be possible due to the elevated PWATS, dewpoints, warm cloud layers, and dynamic forcing. Finally, there is a small but not completely negligible threat of isolated tornadoes given the impressive low-lvl instability, LCLs generally under 1000m (outside of Delmarva which may mix more efficiently) and some locally enhanced low-lvl helicity either near the front or outflow boundaries.
  11. I'm at 92/78/108 in Fleetwood. And looking at 1pm obs across the Mount Holly area, Reading has the hottest heat index right now.
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