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Newman last won the day on August 11

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  1. ONI values are close and the progression into winter looks like what we could see this winter as well. Slightly warmer this year probably. However, I don't like how it came off a cold Neutral regime. Basically, this is what we have going into this winter (as of right now): 1. Warm neutral ENSO regime. 2. Regions 1+2 will be fairly cold, region 3 will be cooler, region 4 will be rather warm, and region 3.4 will be likely flushed neutral. 3. QBO will likely transition westerly to easterly entering winter (see 1995-96 as a very similar year). 4. Coming off a weak Nino winter/spring/early Summer. 5. Low solar activity. Is usually tied with positive influences with regards to high lat blocking. 6. Warm PDO/Pacific likely. Will the warm pool south of Alaska maintain and not migrate? We'll see. 7. Warm AMO/Atlantic likely. The July AMO value of 0.350 was the most positive value since Dec 2017. *All of this is preliminary thinking of course. But if I was forced to make a forecast RIGHT NOW, my initial thinking would an overall positive outlook for east coast snow weenies. LONG way to go though.*
  2. Not to sidetrack this thread but... The Pacific was much cooler in July 1993 compared to July 2019. However, the PDO was positive and the warmer ENSO waters were focused further west with cooling in the east regions. In those regards, there is similarities. But the majority of the PAC is warm compared to 1993. An another note, the AMO/Atlantic was very negative/cool in July 1993. This year is the complete opposite. Looking at Tuesday, the NAM is impressive with the severe parameters for much of the area. Just for kicks, here is NYC Tuesday at 21z:
  3. Does anyone know of a website/dataset that displays West Pacific ACE values by year? I can find Atlantic and East Pacific but have been unable to find West Pacific.
  4. Mount Holly: The same threats as mentioned in previous forecast packages still look to apply. First strong-severe winds will be possible particularly if the convective mode becomes linear or organized multicell, which certainly seems a possibility with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE,30 kts of 0-3km shear (for balancing cold pools), and organized forcing near the cold front. Secondly heavy rain and flooding will also be possible due to the elevated PWATS, dewpoints, warm cloud layers, and dynamic forcing. Finally, there is a small but not completely negligible threat of isolated tornadoes given the impressive low-lvl instability, LCLs generally under 1000m (outside of Delmarva which may mix more efficiently) and some locally enhanced low-lvl helicity either near the front or outflow boundaries.
  5. I'm at 92/78/108 in Fleetwood. And looking at 1pm obs across the Mount Holly area, Reading has the hottest heat index right now.
  6. That line heading toward NJ means business. Lots of lightning and heavy rain. Not much wind where I was.
  7. Until there is more organization and a true LLC, I simply can't take any of these maps seriously that show a rapidly intensifying Major. A hurricane is very plausible in the CAT 1 or maybe 2 range and there will still be devastating impacts from the flooding rains. I hope for the Gulf's sake this doesn't turn into what the UKMET shows:
  8. The HWRF is among the Euro and UKMET with a stronger and further west storm (albeit really ridiculous). 18z Euro has a 976mb storm still offshore at hour 90.
  9. Euro brings that area of interest in the gulf into Texas as a high end Cat 1 with 80-90mph gusts at 984mb.
  10. Areas affected...southeast PA and central and southern New Jersey...southward across northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181623Z - 181800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon, with attendant/increasing risk for locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. WW may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows ongoing airmass destabilization across the Mid Atlantic region, as gradual heating of a moist boundary layer (low 70s dewpoints) through broken cloud cover, has resulted in 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE as of 16Z. Though cumulus remains suppressed south of the Mason/Dixon line at this time, visible imagery shows deepening convection over southeast PA, just upstream of the axis of greatest instability. Area VWPs indicate moderate (35 to 45 kt) mid-level westerly flow, which will likely provide ample shear for organized convection. As such, risk for locally damaging winds should gradually increase this afternoon, along with potential for hail with the strongest cells. Additionally, backed low-level flow is indicated across parts of eastern PA and into NJ north of a northwest-to-southeast surface boundary lying across southeast PA/southern NJ per recent surface analysis. Given this local enhancement to the low-level shear profile, a tornado is also not out of the question with any isolated/rotating storm which may evolve.
  11. Holy crap! Was just flanking/chasing that storm currently in Lehigh County and caught these. I turned around and headed home but should've kept going lol. Looks like a strong tornado signature. Definitely over 2" hail where I was, and the storm appears to be strengthening.
  12. SBCAPE creeping near 4000 here in eastern PA.
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