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  1. GEPS for around Christmas. Negatives around the Aleutians with a fairly stout western ridge, dumping the trough in the east.
  2. A bit windy at the coast next weekend. 850 winds: Surface Winds:
  3. These snow showers dropped a quick coating and are heading east:
  4. I could be mistaking an extension for a retraction so please correct me if I'm misinterpreting the model guidance. However, the GEPS shows a similar progression with the PAC jet no longer bombarding the western US after the 18th period. Resulting in a look where the GOAK trough retrogrades west into the Aleutians and the ridge builds west, opening the door for the trough to dump into the east.
  5. Looks like the PAC jet retracts by the 21st on the GEFS. STJ cutting underneath will probably yield an active pattern from the 23rd on into January. Blocking up north and a favorable Pacific could dump the trough in the east, rather than having a Normal/Zonal look.
  6. The contrast between the CMC and the Euro seems small with regard to the western ridge, but makes a huge difference downstream. The Canadian ridge is definitely centered further west: The Euro, however, has the ridge centered rather significantly further east: Shift the Euro ridge further west over Idaho or western Washington and we're in business, at least in that regard. However, I think it may be more dependent on the amplification of the western ridge. What good would the ridge be if it were centered further west BUT less amplified? The northern vorts would not dive down the backside of the downstream trough as sharply, inhibiting any type of explosive phasing. A Montana ridge would work, but only if we amplify it so the northern vorts have no choice to dive down sharp enough to phase into the southern energy.
  7. I figured I'd share this. I made a list when reading Kocin and Uccellini's Northeast Snowstorms book of "Ingredients to get the Big One" and here are some (not all) similarities right now with this storm to other greats: 1. "West Coast ridge and downstream trough increasing in amplitude and decreasing in wavelength". Check. 2. "Vorticity Maxima passing between NC and NJ, heading northeast". Check. 3. "Possible southern and northern stream energy mergers". Check. 4. "High latitude blocking over Greenland trapping a 50/50 low, resulting in confluence over SE Canada". This one is little trickier. It's not like there's a huge NAO but the confluence is there that we need. 5. "Large increase of wind speed in upper-level jets upwind of trough axis and along the downstream ridge crest. Entrance region of upper-level jet streaks in NE US or SE Canada". This is a big player in the overall solution. How strong and how far north can we stretch that 250mb Jet.? 6. "Heaviest snows occur 50-300km north of the 850 hPa path". It's close. We are still at day 9-10. LONG ways to go. Things can and will change, but just wanted to point out that this one has POTENTIAL to be a classic east coast snow storm.
  8. The big upper low that crashes onto the west coast and delivers the storm for 12/8 - 12/10 is literally just exiting the Asian continent. Long long way to go.
  9. Newman

    Blizzard of 2016 Analysis

    This is exactly the type of work that I look forward to when I enter college meteorology classes. I understand the definitions and basics of many of the concepts you discussed such as frontogenesis, WAA, Cloud Formation, PVA, etc., but I want to know more than the basics. I want to get down to the details with the differential calculus equations and apply them to past and current meteorological events. Perhaps I should start learning now. Thanks for sharing Brooklyn.
  10. Lol this is why we don't look at long range OP runs ever, let alone in volatile patterns.
  11. What is the lag time between the MJO and sensible impacts to the United States?
  12. GFS shifted significantly for interior New England for the 27th storm.