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About gokartmozart

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    wxbell - Joe Bastardi
  • Birthday 07/18/1955

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    Boalsburg Pa

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  1. Its not that it will body and soul move over the pole Its just that the kind of cold that is going on there could show up over the US for a few weeks in the heart of the winter as the blocking gets in place favorable for that to occur here The bathtub slosh idea is something that has been around for a long time in forecasting, Remember the 0 in NYC with no snow on the ground in the super Nino year? well guess what, do not be surprised if that kind of air with more staying power and with a snow cover shows up again this winter The planet is about .2
  2. There are many wonderful sites out there for maps, and I certainly think we are one of them, But competition hones one's skills and so I am trying to make it my mission, along with Joe and Tom to show you things you may not be seeing by just clicking on maps and models. A reason to come to our site that may or may not be on other sites. Here is a neat little tool which we like to use here, ANTI-LOGGING The horrible winters of 2001, and 2011 ( if you are a snow and cold nut) are highlighted here as anti logs that have worked very well so far in October and November, A
  3. You know when you feel a sense of gratitude for people who you know you can't do without and that is you. You are willing to sit and share things with them, And so i do that from time to time, Its Sunday morning, so this is not your standard meteorological musing Right or wrong, I wear my heart on my sleeve and say what I believe. A lot of people loved Muhammed Ali. But being the son of an Italian that grew up on Federal Hill in Providence, , next to hurricanes, Rocky Marciano was probably what I heard about most as a kid, I kind of think my dad wanted one of us to be a
  4. You all know about how I think there is a linkage between tropical activity and the North American winter when there are exceptional events that stand out as possible signaling mechanisms. Last year, taking High Atlantic ACE vs west Pac low ace, we came up with 5 analogs 1933,1950,1995,2005,2010 it gave us a remarkable 5-month forecast! analogs same period 2017-2018 Seriously, you can't make that up Well, this year's tinkering is like this: 5 years are used in the sample The key to the sample is Major Im
  5. I LOVE this 200 mb VV pattern, this is what we were looking for That is an ANTILOG to a warm winter, says we likely will not spend alot for time in the warm phases of the MJO and in fact is opposite Convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is something that should be banned from Winter weather patterns ha ha The response is right in line Dec Jan Feb Winter The JMA has gone to the Pioneer and Euro in the Pacific while maintaining the cold look in the east, From last AUGUST the Pioneer
  6. In August when we put out the winter idea The Pioneer Model which I believe is the most accurate long range 500 mb model out there ( again I have analyzed 2 meter weakness where its too cold in warm winters but deadly when its cold, and I think that is dependent on the overall state of the global temps... where adjustments have to be made when there is overwhelming warmth as in the super nino year and the left year after... that is something Joe may have to adjust) Here is what it had The monster message was cold was coming, The blended analog scheme I have also was co
  7. I will speak on my forecast ideas Positive: The Ace burst for the first 15 days of September was jumped on Aug 23. Saw Gordon a week before, and this coming back from Sept 1/2. Track and landfall first to be displayed Sept 5. Tightening of the eyewall analyzed well coming to the coast You have seen those maps a dozen times, and yesterday glory wont help you today. Negative, Not figuring out the drying, plus distortion aspect of competitive banding away from storm ( actually shows why I want to seed these, anything that disrupts the storm will weaken the wind)The drying aspec
  8. This should ring a Weatherbell since it looks like our forecast, From the JMA with love I have no problem with this Hokey Smokey This looks Like a Modoki Mail out the warnings
  9. This is excerpted from a Weatherbell.com Post with examples of something for my Commercial Clients. The Title is from a Talking Heads Song, (Psycho Killer) Which may or may not apply ha ha I made a comment yesterday saying there is not much more I can add on Florence because there isn't I expect our forecast to be right, or close enough that I am not making wild swings, I said last week that I would wait till Wednesday if I was going to make any big changes. I think I have been as extreme as can be from a distance. And so if other forecasts say the same t
  10. This is inspired by some things I am seeing on twitter, Again we have to remember how hurricanes work, The weaker the feature, the less it will weaken because its weak to being with. But a powerful system, a different story, it will weaken rapidly as it moves inland. If this is as strong as I think when it hits and moves inland as far as modeling has, it will weaken 30-50 mb in 24 hours. Why?, Well the reason it got so strong in the first place is because of perfect conditions. What happens when those conditions are cut out from under its feet. Say goodbye There is no reason for it to stay
  11. The winter has been a cold one in South America and this is not in line with winters where el Ninos have followed. This year Augusts are warm This one is not are there any? Well lets look at late starting ones ( ASO or later) ( 1968,1969,1976,1977) slightly similar but 2 of those are quite similar 1969,1976 together From 1982 on, no Augusts in South America was as cold as this one is with an el nino following! There were months as cold, but all post nino years Yet the latest CFSV2 fo
  12. The intersection between meteorology and climate is often because of what I think is a weaponization of the weather to push an agenda unrelated to the problem that is really at hand... the forecast. A classic example is the well-telegraphed heat in the western US, set up beforehand by trusting the MEI analog of 2006 to rule the front part of summer, Right now I am trusting one of my analogs, ( 2006 is one also, but it had been the strongest MEI analog) 2002, to take over for a while, The 60 day cycle trends are coming to an end now, as the pattern driving all this has changed quite a bit
  13. This will be the final share on this matter, but I just want to show one more time the idea behind why the SOI link to a coming nino has been showing up in the winter before Always love challenges, and the challenges to the modoki Idea I have are certainly there across the board. And I guess in revealing all this, there is a risk involved that alot of research gets beaten back if there is not what I think is coming. The euro has the kind of look I envision for the winter in the SST This looks like the blend of the analog years. There is no big powerful en
  14. The Time will come when winter will ask what you were doing all summer-- Henry Clay Well here is what I have been up to Major cold stormy winter in the cards Could simply evolve into it from fall Extreme of coldest air could wind up over much of the US this winter Lets cut right to the point Temperatures Snowfall I could see freak events into S Texas and deep into FLA this year Analog ( for now) I have been alluding to this on posts since Spring, that one heck of a wi
  15. Hello the Massive Mammoth Monmouth Monster of Meteo explained to me that either I post on this site, or I could be sleeping with da fishes in New York Harbor after it freezes over this winter. Anyway our clients and premium members have our winter forecast and I will be posting here before we post it publicly ( most likely late tomorrow night) And the Saturday Summary I do on weatherbell.com will have it on, premium members have seen it, I dont normally go on the blogs, but when you see our winter forecast I think you are going to see some angles you may not have seen before. In addition,
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