WxInTheBronx

CovidTracking updates: Total tests: 1,762,050 (+138,000 from yesterday - remember a lot of that 216 yesterday was Cali backlog clearance) Positives: 332,308 Negatives: 1,429,742 Per capita: 1 in 188 State leaders: NY: 302,280 (1 in 65) CA: 116,533 FL: 113,404 WA: 87,918 NJ: 82,166 From World-o-Meters, a count of tests per million people gives us this top 5: NY: 15,408 LA: 12,935 WA: 12,053 MA and VT tied: 10,532

Italy is starting to see their net hospitalizations/ICU turn negative and Lombardy's daily deaths are in a pretty consistent decline. Let this be hopeful for us.

I was never a huge Cuomo fan for a multitude of reasons, but if we apex this week without bursting at the seams, he is more than worthy of praise. He's really been one hell of a leader. City-wise though, I cannot say the same for BdB. He went from an apathetic attitude to one of outright panic without real action.

Yep and Dr. Gottlieb acknowledges that. Cuomo was really hitting on the Javits development in the presser.

Probably the first expert I've seen to predict New York won't go over capacity.

Well damn. I don't like reading much into weekend data and one-day blips, but a major decrease in new NY hospitalizations yesterday.

Here we go antibody test here we go *clap clap* https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/04/cdc-coronavirus-blood-tests-165116

All right, take 2 on the CovidTracking updates: Total tests: 1,623,807 (+216,000{!!} from yesterday) Positive: 305,755 Negative: 1,318,052 Per capita: 1 in 203 State leaders *CORRECTED* NY: 283,621 (1 in ~69 #nice) CA: 113,700 (massive pending backlog appears to be clearing, went from 57K pending to 13K) FL: 102,067 WA: 82,599 NJ: 75,356 Don't expect another 200K tomorrow since there was a pretty big jump with the CA numbers. However, we probably get inside 1 in 200 by the morning update. NY should pass 300K tomorrow (1 in 65) I'd think.

Speculation on Italy from WoM: Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

Hold on, CovidTracking says they have a bug in the numbers.

Speculation on the actual number of cases in the US...this Harvard epidemiologist believes it could be anywhere from 2 - 11 million: (THREAD)

FDA chief says the plasma trials are showing promise. Of course, 45 is still obsessed with HCQ.

I've been trying to find silver linings in this. R0 to 1 is one of them. Hope you're doing okay.

Italy! 4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in ItalyThe target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappearAn estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) [source] [source] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

IMHE hasn't updated since Wednesday. They seem to be re-analyzing things.