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Isotherm

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Isotherm last won the day on February 14

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  1. The divergence b/t the ECMWF and GFS is once again a function of disparities in MJO handling. The GFS rapidly weakens the wave over the coming days toward the COD, which significantly militates against the development of a proper PNA spike; whereas, the ECMWF has a coherent propagation through phase 1, and the phase 1 response in a solid PNA. That window of PNA amplitude, if it occurs, will be the opportunity for a higher-end threat. As the MJO propagates into phases 2 and 3, the colder than normal air will remain, but the PNA diminution should ensue. However, some EPO ridging likely persists into mid month which will keep the pattern sufficiently cold. The latest relative AAM plots indicate increasing momentum in the sub-tropics, although not positive/above normal yet, should be adequate to force an ephemeral weak -NAO near the end of Feb/beginning of March. So, the extirpation of the PNA on the GFS essentially squashes any large storm threat if it's correct. This winter should have driven home the point regarding the critical importance of the PNA domain insofar as snow threats from SNE southward. It's possible we end up with little to nothing for the remainder of the winter. It's also possible we don't. Certainly, objectively speaking, the pattern will be more conducive than it has been virtually all winter. Thus, the dice will be rolled and the probabilities will be higher, though that still doesn't preclude rolling snake eyes. Background signals support a stronger than normal polar jet, so once the MJO/tropical forcing becomes less favorable, it will become warmer than normal. The CFS v2 decelerates in phase 3 through March 20th which would extend the cold period, but a more expeditious progression would yield faster warming.
  2. November 15th was 3.0", so it will be close. This will bring me to around 9" for the season.
  3. PNS indicating 3" in Monmouth County. Radar suggests some blossoming in EPA which should move through CNJ, could be sufficient to tack on an additional 0.5", as mid levels haven't warmed above freezing yet. @PB GFI @RAllen964 ...Monmouth County... Tinton Falls 2.9 in 0220 PM 02/20 Trained Spotter
  4. In PHL/Camden local area right now.
  5. We'll see. I think the low level dry air may put up quite a fight from about TTN northeastward.
  6. Yes. About 10 minutes of virga here in SW NJ. Light snow now.
  7. It seems there has been a significant increase in -FT/easterlies in the sub-tropics of the SHEM that are probably contributing to this. But I agree, it is rather paradoxical/unorthodox and a bit of confounding occurrence yet again.
  8. It was entirely precautionary and completely expected; there was never a genuine risk for 6" of snowfall or greater, which is the requisite amount for WSW from CNJ northward, and 5" for SNJ.
  9. @Snowy Hibbo, the overall calculation is negative as the pole to equator NHEM/SHEM has more negatives, but I think the significance of the positive torque addition in the sub tropical belt recently is probably more important, even though it is a net negative when totaling global contribution. Regardless, the resultant pattern coming will be an interesting test of all this.
  10. There are some similarities to Feb 22 2008. Sfc high was positioned near SE New England as snow overspread the area; thereupon, it translated eastward [as it progged here]. Disclaimer: I'm not saying the results will be similar; each set-up is idiosyncratic; merely an observation.
  11. Isotherm

    Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread

    Mugs - funny, I was going to post that. The one bright side is my snowfall map will probably take less than an hour this year.
  12. Isotherm

    Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread

    Thanks - and agreed. I recall numerous winters in which the pattern was arguably worse, yet we were able to pull off a few moderate, 3-6" type events with well timed surface highs. That hasn't happened; maybe this Wednesday will be our first. The "spray" of storm tracks has been both north and south of the region.
  13. Isotherm

    Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread

    Andrew: what I will comment on is that this has been a highly, highly atypical winter due to the fact that snow totals as low as we've recorded are almost always coupled with very warm/blowtorch scale winters. That has not been the case. December was about +2.5, January, 0 / normal, and February so far is about +1 at my station. It's not a cold winter but I wouldn't really call it a solidly or very warm winter either; it's slightly warmer than normal. The temperatures have been disharmonious with the snowfall. Another highly unusual fact is that the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will finish above normal snowfall for the winter, as will the interior Northeast, but there's been a snow-hole from NJ to Boston. Typically, very low snowfall winters for us extend into the Mid-Atlantic (or if the Mid-Atlantic receives a lot of snow, NNE doesn't receive as much relative to normal). This plays into the argument that I've seen other meteorologists broach as well; namely, that variance and pure statistical luck has not been on our side this winter. We had a few different opportunities to capitalize with a decent event, but didn't materialize. The snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic is more congruous with what one would expect for the temperature departures we've seen this winter, which haven't been that warm. This winter is certainly the epitome of Murphy's law.
  14. The 18z GEFS run is the first time I've seen the GEFS succeed in induction of higher geopotential heights over Greenland. The EPS improved with a -NAO attempt around D10-11, but then faded again toward the end of the run. As we discussed yesterday, and remains true today, zonal wind alterations are still forecasted for late February onward. The distribution will be quite a bit different, with more +U85 anomalies in the sub-tropics of the NHEM after the 25th, and particularly after March 1st, which is when I think we'll have that "chance" of a height rise attempt. Why am I harping on this dilemma? Because in early March, the TPV will naturally retract poleward. The probability of a higher end event decreases substantially if there's no Greenland height rises to force the TPV farther southwest. It's not a necessity, but yes, it is an important piece at that time of year.
  15. @Armando S, same to you - excellent analysis here as well. I concur on all counts. At the very least, we'll have an interesting pattern to track over the coming weeks. Certainly, would be nice to achieve some NATL contribution, but we'll see. BTW - is that a paywalled website that enables you to create those z500 composites? Very cool and useful feature.
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