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Isotherm

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Isotherm last won the day on June 9

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  1. Tuesday/Wednesday will be mid-upper 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast, and Thurs-Saturday has a shot at the first heat wave for much of NJ [inland]. The pattern overall should be warmer than normal prospectively.
  2. 83/55 split here today. Doesn't get much better than that at this time of year, w/ dews in the 50s.
  3. The much discussed Newfoundland/New England cold pool has warmed dramatically over the past 2 weeks -- now much less anomalous. Will be interesting to monitor to see if this will aid in the feedback of a gradually warming temperature regime in the Northeast.
  4. Even given all of this troughiness and precipitation, June will likely finish normal or slightly above normal temperature wise in NYC; this is w/ a pattern of strong Greenland blocking. I've already expressed my thoughts re: prospectively, and I think some of the calls for a non-summer are premature.
  5. Has little relevance in terms of the winter. We've had 15 -NAO Junes since 2000. We are trending toward a negative NAO cycle, for other reasons, but that doesn't necessarily mean next winter will be -NAO.
  6. @MattHugo -- You have some salient points in your post there, and I don't necessarily disagree, for the most part. However, I'd just caution on attempting to draw a total 1:1 relationship b/t the GWO/AAM and the resultant z500 structure, as sometimes there are inconsistencies. For example, 2006, which as I've noted many times, has been one of my primary analogs for the summer, due in part to the +QBO, weak-Nino, SSTA profile, etc. 2006 summer was a warm one for both E CONUS and UK. In terms of the particulars, June 2006 actually featured a fairly robust Nina-esque atmospheric regime, with GWO orbiting octants 1-2-3 -- that is, much more Nina-esque than this month. Yet, June 2006 featured a mid-level ridge over UK. This was likely due largely to a robust +NAO, which we don't have this June. See GWO phases here for June 2006 - GWO phase is the second column from the right. We were Nina-esque until the end of the month. 2006 6 1 -0.23 0.01 3 0.23 2006 6 2 -0.29 -0.95 1 0.99 2006 6 3 -0.54 -1.61 1 1.7 2006 6 4 -0.82 -1.7 1 1.89 2006 6 5 -1.07 -1.17 1 1.58 2006 6 6 -1.14 -0.66 2 1.32 2006 6 7 -1.21 -1.07 2 1.61 2006 6 8 -1.41 -1.31 2 1.93 2006 6 9 -1.56 -0.59 2 1.67 2006 6 10 -1.53 -0.2 2 1.54 2006 6 11 -1.57 -0.07 2 1.57 2006 6 12 -1.52 0.91 3 1.77 2006 6 13 -1.29 1.08 3 1.69 2006 6 14 -1.19 0.22 3 1.21 2006 6 15 -1.21 0.06 3 1.21 2006 6 16 -1.16 0.49 3 1.26 2006 6 17 -1.06 0.61 3 1.22 2006 6 18 -0.99 1.07 4 1.46 2006 6 19 -0.76 1.82 4 1.98 2006 6 20 -0.48 1.78 4 1.84 2006 6 21 -0.27 1.49 4 1.51 2006 6 22 -0.07 1.82 4 1.83 2006 6 23 0.24 1.71 5 1.72 2006 6 24 0.42 1.16 5 1.23 2006 6 25 0.59 1.51 5 1.62 2006 6 26 0.89 1.96 5 2.15 2006 6 27 1.21 1.28 5 1.76 2006 6 28 1.34 0.71 6 1.52 2006 6 29 1.52 1.24 6 1.96 2006 6 30 1.85 1.94 5 2.68 Here was June 2006's z500: And finally, here was the AAM equator-pole profile for 2006. June 2006 featured a modestly negative AAM [as evidenced by the above GWO]; July 2006 featured a positive AAM spike with Nino-esque GWO, and then August 2006 was very close to neutral AAM wise. So overall, summer 2006 was not an extraordinarily positive AAM summer, w/ the weak nino backdrop, yet still featured fairly warm conditions in the means for E US and UK. Thus, I think we're going to see a warming trend on both continents as the NAO neutralizes in early July, regardless of the tropical convection. Nonetheless, my confidence is certainly higher for the E CONUS being warmer than normal this summer compared to UK, though I still think the latter likely will be. Maybe we'll see a more significant AAM transport deeper in the summer, but typically in these +QBO/weak nino summers, one sees the more Nina-esque propensities in the first half [ala summer 2006]. And as delineated above, June 2006 had a more Nina-esque momentum profile than the instant year. For E CONUS interests, I think we're headed toward a warmer than normal July. Next week looks fairly warm as well in these parts.
  7. Another cool morning by mid June standards. 50F here. Normal is about 60 or low 60s.
  8. 51F low this morning; not bad for mid June. Top 10 weekend and beautiful airmass in place.
  9. @dmillz25, Central Park is difficult to prognosticate but I think the non-vegetative contaminated stations such as the airports surrounding will likely reach the upper 90s and probably 100F this summer.
  10. Yes, I agree, @uncle w -- the pattern in June is not necessarily redolent of the prospective regime in July/August; as you noted, numerous examples from the analogs. I expect this summer will operate somewhat similarly.
  11. Thank you very much for those kind comments, @Armando S!
  12. The June blocking was largely anticipated from my standpoint; due in part to the vestiges of the prior downwell and the semi-persistence negative angular momentum deposits in the high latitudes. However, I would concur with your thoughts above, @MattHugo and, Tams, @Tamara James @Singularity, and I have discussed / concurred that we anticipate a gradual alteration in a few weeks +/- a week or so toward a potentially less blocky high latitude / more zonal mid-latitude structure. The currently superseding Nina-propensities w/ enhanced ELY z850 winds should reverse in about 10 days with a not insignificant MJO mediated downwell. But we shall see. Momentum should respond later this month with eventual resumption of Nino-esque proclivities to the atmospheric backdrop. In other words, I still think everyone here in the NE US should enjoy the cool weather for June for now.
  13. Extracted from my summer outlook; just as an FYI for anyone who thinks the present pattern is antithetical to some forecasters' expectations: The coolest of the three meteorological summer months relative to normal should be June...Residual high latitude blocking may persist for much of June, permitting more frequent trough amplification events in the northern tier of the United States." So, the overall hot summer idea is not in jeopardy with the present pattern. The spasmodic cool-shots in June were expected from my standpoint.
  14. 43 here; pretty impressive for early June. Probably the coldest night until the end of August or September.
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