Isotherm - 33andrain Jump to content

Isotherm

Supreme Wx Expert
  • Content Count

    1,483
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    42

Isotherm last won the day on March 12

Isotherm had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

9,725 Excellent

About Isotherm

  • Rank
    Veritas Vos Liberabit

Personal Information

  • Location
    Colts Neck, NJ

Recent Profile Visitors

2,406 profile views
  1. -4.2 for March thus far at my station; a very chilly month. Spring is the most vapid/boring season of the year from my standpoint; strong back-doors are usually the most interesting weather phenomenon, as it's too early for T-storms given my propinquity to the cold Atlantic. I'd personally welcome any noteworthy event, nor'easter, whether that's rain or snow. The Euro operational appears to be a cold outlier at this point, among the EPS members and other guidance. The interior Northeast could see another snow event though, 27th-28th.
  2. @Ocean Storm, right, as we have discussed before, NAO is an exciting index to prognosticate as it's quite a bit more multifactorial than other indices. Finding the correct balance of weighing one factor over another is important, as the % of NAO variance explainable via one hemispheric/global phenomenon is lower than that of other teleconnection indices, which means more needs to be taken into account. It's not as easy as weak nino --> neg NAO or solar min --> neg NAO. For me personally, this is only the first minor set-back since I began seriously forecasting the NAO modality (I don't purport to have this all figured out but I'm excited to continue experimenting prospectively winter-to-winter). Speaking of next winter, I wouldn't even attempt to wager a guess until mid autumn re the NAO, and it's certainly possible we're positive again; each year is idiosyncratic and the occurrent conditions need to be examined at that point.
  3. With respect to the NAO discourse, I thought that this would be a transitional year, with a weakly negative NAO. The weakly positive NAO finish occurred due to an override and interference on a couple of fronts (which I believe I've rectified for the NAO formula going forward). That said, although the technical calculation of the NAO finished slightly positive for DJF [+0.50], the geopotential height structure over Greenland was actually much improved compared to the previous several winters, with positive GH anomalies over Greenland (an action center near S Greenland). Of course, the reason for the slightly positive NAO value is the contamination via high heights over the Azores region, since the NAO calculation involves the differential in those two regions. One needs to see the lower heights undercut, which is why Europe cold never responded. The real, major fail this winter was over the PNA domain: precisely opposite of what was forecasted by everyone. The heights elsewhere in the NHEM region weren't terribly unpropitious, and as @Allsnow alluded to, the frequent amplification of troughs into the West extirpated our winter in the local region. Certainly, a positive PNA over that domain space likely would have yielded a very snowy winter here, in light of the other teleconnections being in a state which was not very unfavorable. With respect to the present pattern, something of note is that it's been several months since our last enormous positive temperature departure month -- a striking aberration from the past several years. Typically, we've seen a major positive temp departure month in the period Nov-March over the last several years. In fact, going forward, it appears to me there's chance that we actually experience a fairly, "seasons in seasons," near average temperature progression heading into April, which would be a welcome change. Typically, the patterns have been binary -- either very cold or 80F degree temperatures in early April. The current LR guidance would suggest numerous days in the 55-65 degree range toward the end of March and heading into April.
  4. Fairly substantial bust in forecast high temperatures today; a classic spring scenario of warm-fronts getting stuck around 40N. The forecast high was 55F for here, my actual high was 44F, and already now declining, back to 43F with fog/mist. Tomorrow looks much warmer in the mid 50s, and again quite warm Thurs-Fri (though Fri with rain).
  5. You're missing out. Not to make you jealous, but it's 43F and raining here right now. I know -- it isn't right to brag, but this type of weather should be cherished since we rarely get to experience it here.
  6. It is abnormal if March doesn't feature at least one interlude to near 70 degrees. Interludes into the 60s become quite common once into the middle of March. I still have some lingering vestiges of "snow" in the coldest north facing areas, from the 2" of snow/sleet followed by rain last weekend. Underscores the magnitude of the cold over the past week. For those who actually had a snowstorm last weekend, this must have been a nice, wintry feeling week. There appears to be a high prevalence of strong surface highs exiting the SE Canadian coast recently; this is a type of regime which tends to militate against protracted warm spells for the Northeast. We'll have to see if this regime persists in coming weeks, as it could potentially augur a more active back-door front season this spring. It's still too early to ascertain that, however. I concur that later next week will feature a warm pulse, although a bit, "dirty" (not atypical for the time of year). Thursday may be the nicest/sunniest day of the stretch.
  7. I'm not impressed at this time. Arctic/NATL contribution looks tenuous [the fictitious blocks sporadically appearing on operational runs]. Momentum transport in the NHEM, which ameliorated, is still not particularly conducive for anything more than weak blocking. This appears to be, once again, almost entirely tropical forcing elicited as the convective pulse re-circulates expeditiously across the West-Central Pacific. The PNA amplitude will be robust for a transient period, but devoid of assistance from other domains, we would be at the mercy of well-timed surface highs or perfect track/high intensity lows. The pattern would favor the interior Northeast for a significant event, and potentially something minor along the coast. Another issue inherent with the lack of AO-NAO contribution is the TPV will be farther north, and in mid-late March, heights are rapidly rising, so a non-anomalous trough is not going to produce the type of airmass truly optimal for the coast in mid/late March. We'll see if anything alters in the next several days, but it seems to be a nuisance colder than normal pattern with the highest risk of a significant snowfall in interior sections. I agree with Don that minor event(s) are possible.
  8. The cold season November-March in NYC and the Northeast is highly likely to finish colder than normal. Central Park temperature departures November: -3.3 December: +2.6 January: -0.1 February: +0.9 Nov-Feb departure: +.03 [effectively normal] March will be much colder than average after the first week, followed a period of moderate temperatures next week, then subsequently a resumption of below normal for most of the second half of the month. Consequently, Nov-March has a high probability of being colder than average in the Northeast. Unfortunately, the atmospheric pattern was/will be more reflective of an auspicious structure in November and March than experienced in actual meteorological winter, Dec-Jan-Feb.
  9. Thanks, Tim @Allsnow. Right; skew Ts evinced the warm tongue at 750-800mb very strongly up through Monmouth County and about New Brunswick, at the height of the mid level warming around 05-06z. North of New Brunswick, the 800mb temperatures were very close to 0c which was sufficiently cold to snow through, barring some occasionally sleet pellets. Unfortunately for locations immediately south, the 800mb warmth extended farther north than the 850mb warmth by about 20-25 miles, so even the NAM profiles last night off the 00z run were rather deceptive, which showed the 850mb 0c isotherm peak in latitude around northern Ocean County.
  10. No chance of reaching normal here. For the first time, in probably my memory, I think Monmouth County fared the worst on the entire East Coast relative to normal -- quite literally, those south, west, north, east of us have done better. Total is 12.7" here -- a full-blown ratter winter in my eyes. Every event had rain involved. My 30-year running average is 31.6", so that's almost certainly unattainable. That being said, even though this was the worst winter in memory for a variety of reasons (amount of teases, the amount of rain, the fact that the Mid-Atlantic and locations north of us did comparatively well, the fact that I didn't forecast this winter to occur in the manner it did, etc. - just altogether hideous winter), I can't complain too much, as Monmouth has been scoring the win or close to it in many, many seasons. The putative winners became losers this year. Overall, a very memorable winter for me, which I'll remember for a long time. Good news is it offered the opportunity to further hone forecasting methods, as a permutation such as this one would have arisen eventually in the future.
  11. No chance of reaching normal here. For the first time, in probably my memory, I think Monmouth County fared the worst on the entire East Coast relative to normal -- quite literally, those south, west, north, east of us have done better. Total is 12.7" here -- a full-blown ratter winter in my eyes. Every event had rain involved. My 30-year running average is 31.6", so that's almost certainly unattainable. That being said, even though this was the worst winter in memory for a variety of reasons (amount of teases, the amount of rain, the fact that the Mid-Atlantic and locations north of us did comparatively well, the fact that I didn't forecast this winter to occur in the manner it did, etc. - just altogether hideous winter), I can't complain too much, as Monmouth has been scoring the win or close to it in many, many seasons. The putative winners became losers this year. Overall, a very memorable winter for me, which I'll remember for a long time. Good news is it offered the opportunity to further hone forecasting methods, as a permutation such as this one would have arisen eventually in the future.
×
×
  • Create New...