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Isotherm last won the day on August 3

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About Isotherm

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    Veritas Vos Liberabit

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    Colts Neck, NJ

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  1. For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year.
  2. Ended up with 2.65" here for the event. Impressive. Now at about 19" of precipitation for summer (JJA) 2019 thus far.
  3. Well over 2 inches and getting crushed. One of the best summers I can recall T-storm wise. That incoming cell is potent.
  4. Getting crushed here today. 1 inch of rain already. Training cells directed over my area.
  5. Yes, I agree, @JM. I responded to someone on another board a couple months back re a comment to the effect that "it's impossible to forecast the long range, or the NAO long-lead, with any reliability." That type of commentary is a pet peeve of mine, as it's a bit of an affront to those who have made some favorable inroads in the long range field. Regarding this summer, I like where we are presently; and it's good to see both of our forecasts verifying thus far. We'll see where we stand at the end of August at final verification, but so far, the near normal June, and the very hot July have verified. August is running slightly warmer than normal MTD; we will have about 5 day +/- 1 period of cooler temperatures, but then, thereafter, August 16th-30th should be warmer than normal [potentially another significant heat wave in that late August period].
  6. Latest ECMWF weeklies remain very warm for the next 30 and 46 day means. For the upcoming 30, the bulk of the warmer departures will occur in the short term (< 7 days) and the 15-30 day period [August 15-30th]. There will be a cool period August 7th-15th, but we should resume our regularly scheduled programming of above normal for the second half of the month.
  7. 3.30" of rainfall total for yesterday! Very impressive, and one of the highest < 6 hour totals I have ever witnessed. Up to 9.28" of rain for July; 7.0" June; continuing the very wet summer. Yesterday also managed 89.5F before the storms, so up to 11 90F days here.
  8. Automated cannot keep up in this event. Eyeballing manual gauge, likely well over 2". Will check in a bit.
  9. Yes - very, very impressive. Numerous CTG strikes overhead.
  10. Happened to be around home today for this one. Easily one of the best T-storms here in years! Constant vicious lightning/thunder and blinding rain for protracted period.
  11. For our area specifically [I-95 corridor], the ECMWF ensemble mean verbatim indicates normal or above normal 850mb temperatures through August 9th with transitioning August 10th. Until the -NAO block fully retrogrades, and the EPO block develops, I think the pattern will remain on the warmer than normal side for the coastal Northeast in early August. The potential cool-down period, to me, will probably be centered around August 10th-15th, before gradual warming again thereafter.
  12. @Oliviajames3. Yes, I do concur with @donsutherland1 that negative NAO often correlates with higher geopotential heights in the NE/E US in the mid-later part of summer, in particular due to wavelengths. However, it's not always so linear, and a negative NAO can be associated with troughing in the NE US if other hemispheric variables are auspicious for such an outcome. Specifically, my observations have tended to indicate that the EPO domain is more influential in the mid-late summer. Note that the progged EPO diminution in the medium range more closely parallels the temperature decline (i.e., the correlation coefficient in a linear regression would probably quite high for the direction of those two variables over the coming weeks). The putative cool-down will more likely be a cooperative/adjunctive effort b/t the EPO and NAO blocks in the medium range, but without the EPO block, the cool-down would be much less impactful. With that said, this cool-down does not appear anomalous or protracted at this time, and in fact, the first week of August will be quite warm (and has been warming on the data).
  13. First week of August continues to warm on the Ecmwf, as wavelengths at this time of year support a connection of geopotential heights Greenland-NE US. 00z euro has multiple days of 90 or greater through the 7th. 
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