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Feb

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  1. Not much we can do about. Just hope things change sometime in January like the experts tell us they will.
  2. Loved the entire post but the very first sentence had me . Keep up the great work! You are one of my favorites
  3. Love you Anthony but you seem to have forgotten your first post I quoted of yours. Need to stop swinging with models. They are swinging for a reason themselves.
  4. I doubt you will. Everything going just as the great minds on here have said it would
  5. They caved big time Tom. I wasn’t trying to stir anything up yesterday. I have followed your work for years and you are truly one of the best. You put everything you got into your work. So glad to see the modeling coming around to your thinking. Meteorology, not modelogy.
  6. The last minute north trend was good for Richmond, not so much for those who were riding the snow/ sleet / rain line down in NC
  7. Your thoughts are the eps have dumped cold in the west before and the MJO on December 20th show warmth in the east. Read his thoughts and you will see why it isn’t as cut and dry as you seem to make it
  8. I happen to agree with Isotherm. Just today he made another terrific post about what is to come. He has laid out paragraph after paragraph. Post after post for weeks. Sorry if someone comes along and says the eps say this and the MJO says this and I disagree with them. Why not mention the GEFS or the GEPS, which don’t support the eps? An open discussion breaks both ways
  9. All I have done is challenged his thoughts. I happen to think he will be wrong
  10. And if you would read Isotherm’s thoughts you will see why the MJO forcing will not be the big factor as we pass the 18th or so. If long range forecasting was as simple as looking at MJO plots or the eps we all could do it.
  11. All the ensembles latched onto the mild period. Why so much praise for the eps is beyond me. Remember the warm November they kept showing? How did that work out??
  12. Nobody is calling for sustained cold in the east before Christmas. Everyone knows a milder regime is coming. The disagreement is about how long the mild air is around and when it changes back to a colder pattern. I have seen some saying not until January. Others the last week of December. Some around Christmas. Some the 20th on. But no one that I know has called for sustained cold before Christmas.
  13. I believe Isotherm and others have put forth a very good case on why the eps will be wrong. Too many mets and others hug the eps and in doing so close their eyes to other things taking place.
  14. Well said Tom. Very frustrating reading others just humping the eps, without questioning their output. Just rip and read.
  15. It doesn’t look good down your way. The 18z Nam bumped a bit north but still nothing in DC. Going to have to hope for a January 2000 Hail Mary at this point.
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