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Sroc

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About Sroc

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  1. I know many might have looked at a snow map for the NAM or ssaw that the 00z and 6z euro cut back on totals, and thought it’s over. But actually think it’s quite the contraryI actually love what the Nam did at 12z today. Reason being is that it popped a stripe of a heavy precip axis just off the coast. If you look at the prev two runs that went away. GfS does the same thing as does rgem and CMC. Good trends imo so far. Let’s see what euro does in a bit.
  2. Combined with quite the temp gradient further enhancing vertical motion. People seem to be forgetting this aspect and is notoriously under modeled. Only 100-150 miles separates the freezing line from 60-70* at the surface.
  3. I was wrong..it apparently is no longer an option which honestly given its overall resolution is probably better anyway that the New England view will suffice.
  4. You are correct sir. Didnt even notice that. Went straight to euro and was like come on rook its right there. I havent looked for the NYC view on the EPS since the new interface and since I read this. Now whos the rook.
  5. The new england view is under US regions. Open up "US cities" and you will find the NYC view.
  6. @Bring Back 1962-63 and @donsutherland1 I really look forward to and enjoy the Arctic updates. So much to learn about What to expect in my back yard by Understanding the big picture. Keep up the phenomenal work.
  7. To piggy back on this comment you can also use this sort of visual chart to follow trends. If all you knew about this chart was the more color you saw lined up top to bottom over a given date, Feb 21st vs Feb 18th in the chart above, then the more individual members are producing snow for that particular location(Bedford Mass) on that particular date, meaning this model thinks there will be snow. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that some of the individual members that do not produce snow on that date aren't correct. Also it doesn't mean that if most models show blue colors (2-6" snow) but yesterday they were showing pink and purple(6-12") that by looking at the a single snap shot or image will tell you very much about where things are headed. You should simply look at this chart and interpret what's going on based on several model cycles rather than any specific details on a chart like this to see what the trend is. Do more and more members start to show the pretty colors? Do the colors amongst the individual members start to match or are there large variations to the colors indicating some members show a foot and others an inch, and others 6 inches? Do the colors begin to get consistent in color and do they line up over the top of one another indicating the model is converging on a specific soln for snow amts and timing?(I modified the the original image above to show how consistent the colors are and how lined up they are for todays date(black line with yellow stars) Blah blah blah. Its these sorts of trends that one might find useful in determining where the final soln might be headed. Of course comparing the trends within the EPS as well as comparing this models trends with other models is useful as well. For instance that graphic was yesterdays 12z. Here is last nights 00z for comparison. The mean for the Feb 18th dropped a little. Overall the mean for the Feb 21st did not do a whole lot one way or the other.
  8. First image is showing where the N energy is as well as the southern energy. As you can see our system is still way out over the Pac Ocean, the energy of which doesn't come ashore for about 36-48hrs or so. Notice where the N energy is located. It still has to journey even further N before rounding the N aspect of the TPV before beginning its journey into central Canada by hr 84 indicated by the yellow x's over the black line. Next Id like to point out that we are still 4 days away and we currently still have changes occurring at H5 from model to model as well as within individual models meaning there is still plenty of time for a trend to cont both favorably as well as unfavorably. Below is simply the diff between 00z Euro and the most recent 12z. I will say three things. First, one run does not make a trend; however, the Ukie, while likely over correcting S&E might be onto something. Second, I do not believe that what I saw at H5 on the 12z Euro matches the surface at all so while we are seeing shifts at H5 you must take the surface with a large grain of salt as they often take time to catch onto the changes aloft. The third point I will make below, so look at the image comparisons Ive illustrated below until you come to my third point. So my third point is that the changes aloft on th Euro are a diff of only 12hrs in the timing/arrival of the N energy. IF we cont to see a mere 12 hr delay in the arrival of the N vort(esp this), and/or weaker S energy, and/or a further S track to the S energy; even the coastal plain COULD be in the game for moderate to significant snowfall, both front end and back end. Again one run does not make a trend, but there is some support from Ukie, and GEFS, there is still 4days from puck drop, and the two key pieces of energy aren't well sampled at the moment. I am not giving up just yet and you shouldn't either. The back end snow possibility for the coastal plain is real. As Rb has mentioned in his brilliant write up there is a very steep temp gradient such that if the wave of LP passes far enough S&E (likely needs to be on or just S of LI somewhere) while the coastal plain may start as snow and change to rain, if the phase is right and the track is right there could be a very quick burst of heavy snowfall on the back end with decent ratios. Could it be a trend weaker with the PNA ridge might actually help us and be what we want?? A weaker ridge slows the speed/decent from N latitudes of the northern vort; therefore, delays the phase. While this analysis could all just be a waste of time and a track into lake Michigan may trend, who knows, but Interesting next 24-36 Id say.
  9. Quickly regarding the MJO into the warm phase discussion: The last time the MJO was in the warm phases the strat was undergoing its changes. We now have the strat changes in place so IMO we will see a diff outcome due to a different sum of all working parts. We did not have the strat effects putting up resistance to the MJO in any way the last time. This time we do. Is this not a consideration at all or are we simply looking at MJO into warm phases forecast, and concluding here we go again; the pattern will collapse?
  10. Like I said to you in the other board I def conceded the idea of under modeled cold air. While I still question the amount of time needed to make a difference, despite my banter I absolutely see it and am more than willing to accept a second underestimation of cold air. That said I still think the NAM is smoking crack.
  11. You mean looked in the NAMs direction and said waachu smokin? Can I have some?
  12. Its the world we live in. Most of "the herd" take memes, Gifs, and twitter statements of 140 characters or less as truth without batting an eye. Its a sad sad thing. But twitter posts like this from JC will get him views and shares and likes since its contradictory to his own prev statements. Then/If the euro weeklies go back to prev ideas he will once again post a dramatic statement about that as well. Again its the world we live in. For better or worse. Sorry banter I know
  13. You shut your mouth when your talking to me Ray. While that sounds great in "theory" do you not agree that in reality IF that precip were to shift to the NW assuming the euro temp profiles including dew points were correct, that the temp profiles would also shift similarly N&W (at least a little) such that Mugsy's current boundary temp of 35*/33* with a wet bulb temp of 34* would likely be higher than your example? If however the precip shield were to shift N&W and the current modeled temp profiles were to verify then I can buy it. BTW whats up @Mugs. I hope you dont mind us talking about your back yard.
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