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Sroc

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  1. Certainly don't mind having you in my corner.
  2. Like I said to you in the other board I def conceded the idea of under modeled cold air. While I still question the amount of time needed to make a difference, despite my banter I absolutely see it and am more than willing to accept a second underestimation of cold air. That said I still think the NAM is smoking crack.
  3. You mean looked in the NAMs direction and said waachu smokin? Can I have some?
  4. Its the world we live in. Most of "the herd" take memes, Gifs, and twitter statements of 140 characters or less as truth without batting an eye. Its a sad sad thing. But twitter posts like this from JC will get him views and shares and likes since its contradictory to his own prev statements. Then/If the euro weeklies go back to prev ideas he will once again post a dramatic statement about that as well. Again its the world we live in. For better or worse. Sorry banter I know
  5. You shut your mouth when your talking to me Ray. While that sounds great in "theory" do you not agree that in reality IF that precip were to shift to the NW assuming the euro temp profiles including dew points were correct, that the temp profiles would also shift similarly N&W (at least a little) such that Mugsy's current boundary temp of 35*/33* with a wet bulb temp of 34* would likely be higher than your example? If however the precip shield were to shift N&W and the current modeled temp profiles were to verify then I can buy it. BTW whats up @Mugs. I hope you dont mind us talking about your back yard.
  6. @PB GFI Ive know Mugs for awhile now and where he lives he is in the 34-35*/30-33*DP area with very little precip. Again the dynamics of this storm wont generate the cold air. Again my argument is that if you get heavy enough precip into any given area it brings the "too warm" to do anything because under that precip the DP will be too high. The temp can only drop to a point between the two (I know you know that). This system is a cutoff low that comes out of the deep south that heads into an air mass that is tepid at best. There is no connection to any cold air on its way. So again if the upper level vorticity where to position itself further west to bring the precip shield in all it does it brings warm air with it since there is simply no cold air to be had. I know Im using the GFS in this example
  7. While I hear what your saying I dont think it matters. There is an overlap where the dew points are below freezing but the surface is above. In that same area even the 925 are well above freezing. There is no cold air source to the N. The precip shield is just barely into the coastal plain. With those upper 30's and 40's dew point temps and warmer surface temps just off the coast if you shift the LP center closer to get the precip in you also get the warm air surging with it. The source region for this storm originates in the deep south with no connection to the cold air to the north. Again I dont think it will matter with this system.
  8. Only problem with that statement Mugs is this is the 850's. This is a warm storm no matter what. After that though, late Monday into Tuesday the GFS is digging N stream energy and closing off 500mb. Without energy digging south of us and 500 closing off this second event is likely a no go. This is an entirely N stream event and currently the GFS is the only model showing this soln at 500mb. All the other models show this N energy nothing more than a progressive, positively tilted trough that whisks the associated vorticity quickly through the region. Again 500 closing off and passing SOUTH of the region(GFS FV3 closes off but passes north of the area) is key to cfreating enough instability in the atmosphere to matter. Ill get excited if other models jump on this idea. As of the 12z runs CMC, Euro and Ukie arent on board.
  9. Regarding the 9th-11th threat there is still much to sort out. The I-95 is still in play here for "something". Lets look at the differences between 5 key players on the field latest GFS vs Euro Op runs. Both images are valid for 12z Dec 9th: Lets start by looking at each individual piece on the field beginning with 1. Notice GFS is further east with it when compared with Euro. This is important detail #1). Jumping to number 4 notice the GFS is further S relative to Euro. This is Important detail #2. Reason being is notice the confluence I have outlined on both models. On the Euro With number 1 further west and number 4 further N there is room for interactions with 2 to raise heights before our main energy(1) reaches the coast. This is critically important in determining how far N the main surface low can track. Also take note that there are still differences with strength and position of pieces 3 and 5 as well between the two models. These differences likely influence the timing, strength, and positions of 1, 2, and 4. As you can plainly see these images are only a mere 108 hrs out(4.5days). Very subtle timing differences on the euro and the entire I-95 cooridor through RI to Red Sox Suck is in play for something. GFS has had more run to run volitility to these 5 key pieces of energy than the euro plus this is the euro's wheel house if you will. Even the euro has work to do and this still might not work out, but to reiterate there is still much to sort out before we can write anything off. WE TRACK!!
  10. Just today for the first time have I seen what even resembles a trend towards consistency for the 5th threat. The term consensus shouldn't even be thought about let alone used in an actual sentence at this time to describe what models are doing with this threat. IMHO all discussion about Op runs for the 9th threat should be in banter because its useless at this lead time to even attempt to form a definitive conclusion with each successive model run. This threat still needs 24hrs of runs to occur, then look/compare all runs within a given model, then compare to other trusted models, then a discussion. Regarding the first threat all that can be said is that the model trend among the two major models, GFS and Euro Op, as well as the red headed step child the CMC went towards a soln invloving all the vorticity throughout the broad based mean trough to remain strung out; with no mechanism in the Atlantic to allow consolidation nor a mechanism along the WC and N Pac to allow consolidation. There is zero raising of heights anywhere along the coast. Without some sort of digging on the back side or slowing of the energy on the front side the mean flow W to E is too unabated and the energy escapes harmlessly. Is it a lock...nope. Again today for the first time in the Hx of the Op runs and discussion of this time frame and threat has there been a hint of a trend towards some common ground between the Euro/GFS Ops regarding only one piece to the puzzle. All we really have for the first threat was prev a wide open window of possibilities. No for the first time there is a hint of the window closing but by no means is it closed or close to closed.
  11. Thus far that seems to be the trend since at least about early to mid Oct. Will it hold true again Im not sure. What i have seen thus far is that when the MJO enters the colder phases this fall it tends to align with many of the other cold favored climate factors for the eastern third of the CONUS that have been ouitlined beautifully in other threads; hence the cold that has been predicted in the LR has ended up as advertised or better. On the other hand, as was seen with this last go round of the MJO in 2-5 the intensity and duration of the warm up depicted in the LR projections has ended up "blunted" if you will. The result of which is likely due to the resistance in the atmosphere by the other more favorable drivers to the "warm phases" of the MJO.
  12. @PB GFI Keep in mind the GEFS have done a much better job at being "more correct" with regards to the LR MJO forecast. As you can see starkly diff than that of the current Euro. While we may ned up with a run through the warmer 2-3 phases it may be blunted drastically relative to what we see in those temp composites and what the hr 360 EPS currently depicts.
  13. Sroc

    The Arctic Thread

    @Bring Back 1962-63 I appreciate the response for sure. Like you time is a precious commodity in my life these days. As a self proclaimed, above average weather enthusiast, I pursue advanced knowledge in all areas of the weather, from predicting potential winter storm or tropical entities in my neck of the woods, to a deeper understanding of the much bigger picture that governs the climate as a whole on this insignificant little spec of dust we call earth in what little spare time I have. I too am owner operator of a small business as well as father of two very active kiddos and husband to wonderful woman all of which takes up the majority of my daily life. Like you I enjoy the pursuit of the true understanding to the main drivers behind the current state of the climate in terms of both a short term time series and more long term time series, but in an objective unbiased fashion. Unfort climate discussions are mired in BS and the avg every day person typically and blindly takes their stance based on either their specific political affiliation and/or based on which side of the debate has the loudest and most force feeding of an idea until you accept it and eat it readily type approach. Like medicine understanding the weather and climate can fall into 3 basic categories: a) the things we understand and claim to know as facts b)The things we almost fully understand, and c) the things we are still are yet to understand fully. And also like medicine as we continue the pursuit of the things we almost fully understand and the things we are yet understand, we realize the things we thought we knew for sure were in fact wrong and fall back into the category of we think we understand or are yet to understand. The "butterfly effect", if you will, or the understanding of the interactions between depths of the oceans, atmosphere, cosmos, and now humans is what really intrigues me. There is a ton of crossover in the general way of thinking and approach to the subject from my professional life and career and my deep passion and hobby that is weather and climate. Medicine and physiology is very similar in that what happens in one area can have both direct and indirect or major or minor effects on other areas. A dysfunction of the endocrine system, for example, can not only directly affect other areas of the endocrine system, but also indirectly have either positive or negative effects(depending on ones perspective) on other aspects of the body simply stated. The analogy I use in an attempt to get a laymen to understand the challenges in medicine is to describe it like an intricate dance. Lets use the endocrine system as our example once again. Take a single hormone in the body and the bodies ability to regulate its levels and pretend its a couple on a dance floor doing a waltz. If the couple does not move in perfect harmony with one another then there is the potential for them to step on each others feet and stumble around the dance floor instead of a smooth coordinated dance. Now lets throw all the other hormones the body produces on the same dance floor. Not only do we have to coordinate the movements of a given individual couple; now the challenge is to coordinate the smooth rhythm and timing of many couples on the same dance floor. If one couple begins to stumble we now run the risk of that couple bumping into another couple, who might bump into another couple, and so on. Now if we are looking at the dance floor from an objective vantage point what we see are multiple dance partners stumbling around a dance floor. The questions asked are where did it start? Did more than one couple stumble at the same time on separate sides of the floor or did one couple start a chain reaction? Where do we begin to fix it. Which couple(s) do we get back on track first that will maximize our chances to get everyone back in sync again? IMHO this basic analogy can apply to weather. When looking at the complex interplay and both direct and indirect effects between Oceans, atmosphere, sun, human emissions, and the cosmos like is being done on this forum, its easy to see just how ridiculous it is to think that us silly little humans have it all figured out. Anyway My apologies for the tangent as this in no way applies to the past, present or future state of the arctic. Here is where I finally real it back into the topic at hand... I am a mere weather enthusiast, so some of the technical data regarding the Beaufort Gyre project specifically goes beyond my scope of understanding. That said I will do my best to contribute when or where I can. I just love getting the wheels of my mind turning thinking about all of it. Thanks again for a brilliant set of minds on this site.
  14. Sroc

    The Arctic Thread

    First off @Midllands Ice Age (UK) and @Bring Back 1962-63 Thank you for such a brilliant objective presentation on the subject. I will cont to look forward to the updates as they become available. Somewhere above one of you two briefly mentioned the direction from which the more fragmented ice is moving; however, one thing I did not see specifically mentioned throughout the 3 pages of incredible information is the "Beaufort Gyre". I have recently been reading about this and that there appears to be a delay in the periodic large scale reversal of the gyre on the order of several years. I've been following along with the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project headed by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution which concluded in Sept.(http://www.whoi.edu/website/beaufortgyre/home) Im wondering what role the Beaufort Gyre's current state and potential large scale reversal has on the big picture. Also on a separate topic, but not sure where to post it, Its been claimed that approx. 80% of the worlds volcanoes are located deep beneath the surface of the world oceans; many if not most of which are, simply stated, unexplored and poorly researched. I'm wondering if there is somewhere within 33&rains threads, and/or somewhere else, links to information/research into the roles(if any) of total magma output/volcanic activity occurring beneath the oceans surface and how or if they perhaps contribute to the overall large scale ocean currents (deep sea or surface) and perhaps consequently the SSTA patterns over time? ie: oscillations such as the AMO on the Atlantic side; PDO and perhaps even some influences on overall ENSO cycle frequencies and/or intensities in the Pac, and perhaps the IO dipole SSTA configurations to name a few? It appears that at least from some of my research into the topic, that the sun and sun spot cycles etc may play an important role on earthquake activity, and consequently changes in the movement of the earths liquid core. Perhaps in a similar fashion to how the jet stream patterns at various levels of the atmosphere are driven by temp gradients horizontally between the northern latitudes and southern latitudes as well as vertically between the depths of the troposphere and stratosphere, the oceanic currents are driven in a not that dissimilar fashion in both a horizontal and vertical fashion with fluctuations in deep sea volcanic activity on the order or months, years, decades, and perhaps longer influenced by solar cycles and other more cosmic effects are a much more important drive in Oceanic SSTA effects than we currently know? I feel like there is a huge void in the research into the potential fluctuations in underwater volcanic activity combined with the more mundane but constant deep mid Atlantic ridge magma activity the role of which may get overlooked (combined with many other important atmospheric driving factors of course) in the big picture in driving ocean currents and perhaps larger time scale SSTA configurations/fluctuations. Again any links to information or just general discussion about the subject is greatly appreciated. Keep up the phenomenal work.
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