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Sroc

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  1. To piggy back on this comment you can also use this sort of visual chart to follow trends. If all you knew about this chart was the more color you saw lined up top to bottom over a given date, Feb 21st vs Feb 18th in the chart above, then the more individual members are producing snow for that particular location(Bedford Mass) on that particular date, meaning this model thinks there will be snow. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that some of the individual members that do not produce snow on that date aren't correct. Also it doesn't mean that if most models show blue colors (2-6" snow) but yesterday they were showing pink and purple(6-12") that by looking at the a single snap shot or image will tell you very much about where things are headed. You should simply look at this chart and interpret what's going on based on several model cycles rather than any specific details on a chart like this to see what the trend is. Do more and more members start to show the pretty colors? Do the colors amongst the individual members start to match or are there large variations to the colors indicating some members show a foot and others an inch, and others 6 inches? Do the colors begin to get consistent in color and do they line up over the top of one another indicating the model is converging on a specific soln for snow amts and timing?(I modified the the original image above to show how consistent the colors are and how lined up they are for todays date(black line with yellow stars) Blah blah blah. Its these sorts of trends that one might find useful in determining where the final soln might be headed. Of course comparing the trends within the EPS as well as comparing this models trends with other models is useful as well. For instance that graphic was yesterdays 12z. Here is last nights 00z for comparison. The mean for the Feb 18th dropped a little. Overall the mean for the Feb 21st did not do a whole lot one way or the other.
  2. First image is showing where the N energy is as well as the southern energy. As you can see our system is still way out over the Pac Ocean, the energy of which doesn't come ashore for about 36-48hrs or so. Notice where the N energy is located. It still has to journey even further N before rounding the N aspect of the TPV before beginning its journey into central Canada by hr 84 indicated by the yellow x's over the black line. Next Id like to point out that we are still 4 days away and we currently still have changes occurring at H5 from model to model as well as within individual models meaning there is still plenty of time for a trend to cont both favorably as well as unfavorably. Below is simply the diff between 00z Euro and the most recent 12z. I will say three things. First, one run does not make a trend; however, the Ukie, while likely over correcting S&E might be onto something. Second, I do not believe that what I saw at H5 on the 12z Euro matches the surface at all so while we are seeing shifts at H5 you must take the surface with a large grain of salt as they often take time to catch onto the changes aloft. The third point I will make below, so look at the image comparisons Ive illustrated below until you come to my third point. So my third point is that the changes aloft on th Euro are a diff of only 12hrs in the timing/arrival of the N energy. IF we cont to see a mere 12 hr delay in the arrival of the N vort(esp this), and/or weaker S energy, and/or a further S track to the S energy; even the coastal plain COULD be in the game for moderate to significant snowfall, both front end and back end. Again one run does not make a trend, but there is some support from Ukie, and GEFS, there is still 4days from puck drop, and the two key pieces of energy aren't well sampled at the moment. I am not giving up just yet and you shouldn't either. The back end snow possibility for the coastal plain is real. As Rb has mentioned in his brilliant write up there is a very steep temp gradient such that if the wave of LP passes far enough S&E (likely needs to be on or just S of LI somewhere) while the coastal plain may start as snow and change to rain, if the phase is right and the track is right there could be a very quick burst of heavy snowfall on the back end with decent ratios. Could it be a trend weaker with the PNA ridge might actually help us and be what we want?? A weaker ridge slows the speed/decent from N latitudes of the northern vort; therefore, delays the phase. While this analysis could all just be a waste of time and a track into lake Michigan may trend, who knows, but Interesting next 24-36 Id say.
  3. Quickly regarding the MJO into the warm phase discussion: The last time the MJO was in the warm phases the strat was undergoing its changes. We now have the strat changes in place so IMO we will see a diff outcome due to a different sum of all working parts. We did not have the strat effects putting up resistance to the MJO in any way the last time. This time we do. Is this not a consideration at all or are we simply looking at MJO into warm phases forecast, and concluding here we go again; the pattern will collapse?
  4. Like I said to you in the other board I def conceded the idea of under modeled cold air. While I still question the amount of time needed to make a difference, despite my banter I absolutely see it and am more than willing to accept a second underestimation of cold air. That said I still think the NAM is smoking crack.
  5. You mean looked in the NAMs direction and said waachu smokin? Can I have some?
  6. Its the world we live in. Most of "the herd" take memes, Gifs, and twitter statements of 140 characters or less as truth without batting an eye. Its a sad sad thing. But twitter posts like this from JC will get him views and shares and likes since its contradictory to his own prev statements. Then/If the euro weeklies go back to prev ideas he will once again post a dramatic statement about that as well. Again its the world we live in. For better or worse. Sorry banter I know
  7. You shut your mouth when your talking to me Ray. While that sounds great in "theory" do you not agree that in reality IF that precip were to shift to the NW assuming the euro temp profiles including dew points were correct, that the temp profiles would also shift similarly N&W (at least a little) such that Mugsy's current boundary temp of 35*/33* with a wet bulb temp of 34* would likely be higher than your example? If however the precip shield were to shift N&W and the current modeled temp profiles were to verify then I can buy it. BTW whats up @Mugs. I hope you dont mind us talking about your back yard.
  8. @PB GFI Ive know Mugs for awhile now and where he lives he is in the 34-35*/30-33*DP area with very little precip. Again the dynamics of this storm wont generate the cold air. Again my argument is that if you get heavy enough precip into any given area it brings the "too warm" to do anything because under that precip the DP will be too high. The temp can only drop to a point between the two (I know you know that). This system is a cutoff low that comes out of the deep south that heads into an air mass that is tepid at best. There is no connection to any cold air on its way. So again if the upper level vorticity where to position itself further west to bring the precip shield in all it does it brings warm air with it since there is simply no cold air to be had. I know Im using the GFS in this example
  9. While I hear what your saying I dont think it matters. There is an overlap where the dew points are below freezing but the surface is above. In that same area even the 925 are well above freezing. There is no cold air source to the N. The precip shield is just barely into the coastal plain. With those upper 30's and 40's dew point temps and warmer surface temps just off the coast if you shift the LP center closer to get the precip in you also get the warm air surging with it. The source region for this storm originates in the deep south with no connection to the cold air to the north. Again I dont think it will matter with this system.
  10. Only problem with that statement Mugs is this is the 850's. This is a warm storm no matter what. After that though, late Monday into Tuesday the GFS is digging N stream energy and closing off 500mb. Without energy digging south of us and 500 closing off this second event is likely a no go. This is an entirely N stream event and currently the GFS is the only model showing this soln at 500mb. All the other models show this N energy nothing more than a progressive, positively tilted trough that whisks the associated vorticity quickly through the region. Again 500 closing off and passing SOUTH of the region(GFS FV3 closes off but passes north of the area) is key to cfreating enough instability in the atmosphere to matter. Ill get excited if other models jump on this idea. As of the 12z runs CMC, Euro and Ukie arent on board.
  11. Regarding the 9th-11th threat there is still much to sort out. The I-95 is still in play here for "something". Lets look at the differences between 5 key players on the field latest GFS vs Euro Op runs. Both images are valid for 12z Dec 9th: Lets start by looking at each individual piece on the field beginning with 1. Notice GFS is further east with it when compared with Euro. This is important detail #1). Jumping to number 4 notice the GFS is further S relative to Euro. This is Important detail #2. Reason being is notice the confluence I have outlined on both models. On the Euro With number 1 further west and number 4 further N there is room for interactions with 2 to raise heights before our main energy(1) reaches the coast. This is critically important in determining how far N the main surface low can track. Also take note that there are still differences with strength and position of pieces 3 and 5 as well between the two models. These differences likely influence the timing, strength, and positions of 1, 2, and 4. As you can plainly see these images are only a mere 108 hrs out(4.5days). Very subtle timing differences on the euro and the entire I-95 cooridor through RI to Red Sox Suck is in play for something. GFS has had more run to run volitility to these 5 key pieces of energy than the euro plus this is the euro's wheel house if you will. Even the euro has work to do and this still might not work out, but to reiterate there is still much to sort out before we can write anything off. WE TRACK!!
  12. Just today for the first time have I seen what even resembles a trend towards consistency for the 5th threat. The term consensus shouldn't even be thought about let alone used in an actual sentence at this time to describe what models are doing with this threat. IMHO all discussion about Op runs for the 9th threat should be in banter because its useless at this lead time to even attempt to form a definitive conclusion with each successive model run. This threat still needs 24hrs of runs to occur, then look/compare all runs within a given model, then compare to other trusted models, then a discussion. Regarding the first threat all that can be said is that the model trend among the two major models, GFS and Euro Op, as well as the red headed step child the CMC went towards a soln invloving all the vorticity throughout the broad based mean trough to remain strung out; with no mechanism in the Atlantic to allow consolidation nor a mechanism along the WC and N Pac to allow consolidation. There is zero raising of heights anywhere along the coast. Without some sort of digging on the back side or slowing of the energy on the front side the mean flow W to E is too unabated and the energy escapes harmlessly. Is it a lock...nope. Again today for the first time in the Hx of the Op runs and discussion of this time frame and threat has there been a hint of a trend towards some common ground between the Euro/GFS Ops regarding only one piece to the puzzle. All we really have for the first threat was prev a wide open window of possibilities. No for the first time there is a hint of the window closing but by no means is it closed or close to closed.
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