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adamfitz1969

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About adamfitz1969

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    Tarrytown, NY

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  1. adamfitz1969

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Thats the furthest North i have seen it. Can it make a jump north just 100 miles more is the question.
  2. adamfitz1969

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    I'd like to know why Mt Holly thinks this is an I-95 storm while dismissing completely what the models are telling.
  3. adamfitz1969

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Something tells me that tonights models will be just like last night, showing solid improvements heading for the Northern stream and a weaker confluence.
  4. adamfitz1969

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    122 people be waiting for the next model like...
  5. adamfitz1969

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    What are you basing this statement on.
  6. adamfitz1969

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    You want the storm to look off track in the early model runs as opposed to being on target, and as the date comes closer you will see the models correct themselves and lead to a far more favorable solution. Isn't this usually the case with I-95 storms?
  7. I believe its due to the importance of the lead wave which makes the second wave produce the fruit which we all wish to enjoy. Let's salivate together, while we wait.
  8. i will be up for the next 30 minutes.....
  9. Im not even a layman when it comes to meteorology (Im a 9/11 researcher) and i find some of you rather fascinatingly brilliant in your studies and explanations regarding current weather and forecasting future events. Regarding winter weather, from my experience of being on here a year exactly, what i usually read from the comments are subtle hints of disappointment when a "future forecast" doesn't pan out as once hoped for. Now i know my opinions here will be treated with kid gloves but i think i can add an explanation most could find agreement with (i hope). What you don;t want, when it comes to forecasting a winter weather event, are the models to come to an absolute agreement right away. Correct me if im wrong now but from my own definitions from reading your comments what you want are patterns to show a "favorable" scenario which can produce said winter event. Because usually if models show an agreement for a winter storm in the LR (say 150 hours out or longer) by the time it reaches close to the time period of 36-24 hours those models which showed such an "inviting" favorable event for a snow storm has now changed either "moderately" or "completely" to a wide right miss or a mixture of rain/sleet. I believe what you wish to see, are long range forecast models to simply show how a pattern sets up, with varying degrees of disagreement until the "zero hours", and in turn can have a favorable scenario which can produce the desired outcome for a winter weather event. Or am i quite wrong deciphering this completely.
  10. adamfitz1969

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    26 degrees here in Tarrytown. Snow is still coming down very hard. Traffic is at a standstill in some sports since 430pm. Remarkable.
  11. adamfitz1969

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    Unlike any other form of weather, it is winter snows which bring out the joyous inner child in all of us. This winter, it will make us "children" longer than previous years.
  12. adamfitz1969

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    Guests waiting for the next maps like....
  13. adamfitz1969

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    I will take it, im just above the Enhanced line.
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