Im not even a layman when it comes to meteorology (Im a 9/11 researcher) and i find some of you rather fascinatingly brilliant in your studies and explanations regarding current weather and forecasting future events. Regarding winter weather, from my experience of being on here a year exactly, what i usually read from the comments are subtle hints of disappointment when a "future forecast" doesn't pan out as once hoped for. Now i know my opinions here will be treated with kid gloves but i think i can add an explanation most could find agreement with (i hope).
What you don;t want, when it comes to forecasting a winter weather event, are the models to come to an absolute agreement right away. Correct me if im wrong now but from my own definitions from reading your comments what you want are patterns to show a "favorable" scenario which can produce said winter event. Because usually if models show an agreement for a winter storm in the LR (say 150 hours out or longer) by the time it reaches close to the time period of 36-24 hours those models which showed such an "inviting" favorable event for a snow storm has now changed either "moderately" or "completely" to a wide right miss or a mixture of rain/sleet.
I believe what you wish to see, are long range forecast models to simply show how a pattern sets up, with varying degrees of disagreement until the "zero hours", and in turn can have a favorable scenario which can produce the desired outcome for a winter weather event. Or am i quite wrong deciphering this completely.