NSFW Weather Guy

jan 23rd i believe

not to extrapolate an 84hr NAM, buuuut.... that would likely be north of most other guidance, even FV3

Fv3 is also a good clip faster

2 of my biggest disappointment storms were Jan 15 and Jan 16......

I didn’t see a flake up here, drove 20 min south to the gym...and 6 inches...

Ur mind if I share on twitter with credit to u

I also call BS bringing the SLP right over the ULL.... shoulda been N that run more so than it was

agreed.. Gfs will see this interjected northern vort into the main feature (below) as weak in this range... watch for it to tighten up and amplify as we get closer

just watching this overall progression at 500 and MSLP... it just looks like complete nonsense to me, something’s gotta give in the above explain points.. or this will certainly be a rare event... all that time with the SLP off shore, the trough begins to get the injection of backside energy to favorable influence the tilt.. and it’s just gonna rapidly strengthen, without moving in longitude or latitude for nearly 30 hours... come’ on bro

might have been discussed, if so sorry... but i think ( once again) the euro is very close to what we’re all hopping for, our northern vort drops backside just like we want, issue is the over flow is a bit too progressive relative to the timing of said vort... this is just the piece of energy we would need to change the game... timing of this is key, and seeing models push this back might not necessarily be a bad thing, we lose a bit of sustained cold, but could make up for a more dynamic Neg trough, amplified system, with dynamic cooling as the flow backs from the interjection of the northern piece, turns the trough Neg, and then it’s off to the races

I thought the euro had decent mid and upper level signals last night... the pieces at play are slow to evolve, the progressive nature of the flow yields a late blooming phase, however, if you go back and watch the evolution, not much confluence from what i see, relative to the other guidance.. euro has its own issue, the vorts at play, don’t cooperate, they remain detached and in return we get a flat positive trough till it’s too late... i think your looking at 6-12 hour timing discrepancy on euro, then you’re talking big hit from NYC - Mid atlantic...

technically the GFS is faster.... the 2 pieces you’re r comparing are not the same feature on each model... GGEM, holds the northern vort back, and interjects it to the backside of the trough, allowing for the trough to tilt, and back the flow.. however the GFS is faster with this energy, it comes nearly parallel in longitude as it dives south, arriving simultaneously with our main feature and squashing the system as it acts as a kicker

we’re usually not hoping for a piece of energy that’s not even on guidance however

this ain’t really how models work... sure being the bullseye of an event so far out is not ideal, as guidance usually varies... but saying it’s going to show a favorable solution as we get closer is def not correct the HP is about the last thing i’d be worried about with this set up right now

agreed... ugly stream set up overall.. gotta hope for a hail mary.. the suppression fears as explained the other day, were not in the sense of traditional suppression, the confluence doesn’t look to like it’s that influential honestly... the split flow with no NS injection will be the death of this... we need to start seeing the northern stream wake up, or this is gonna from west to east and gain no latitude