NSFW Weather Guy

easily 12-16

euro snows till 1 pm for most....wow

models arent giving the CAD enough credit....and it shows

6z euro drops the cold again

the worsts case i see for city folks, is as the best lift dynamics moves north over the hudson valley, a period of lighter rates, will usher in some mix or dry slot, but will be quickly over washed as the 700mb low begins its pivot east, and the better dynamic back flow back into the area from the swinging ULL

posted last night but it was about 2am... the initial warm air advection as the ULL presses into the Arctic High will produce Adiabatic cooling to counter the warm surge, during the period of max lift intense adiabatic cooling will change any borderline mix to snow... i am not expecting to see much sleet in the areas advertised as such... CAD is notoriously under-modeled even for currents OBS standards... and the CAD will aid the column during the intense period of best lift/mid level dynamics... anyone within and north of the FGEN banding max will change to snow imo

eps jumped south, and much more amplified

adiabatic cooling at its finest

i woulda assumed if there was the raw ptype totals woulda picked up on that... i'll grab a sounding

this is the closest you get to any mix/ rain/ hail/ pigs/ whatever.... lol.... column is cold straight down to South central jersey

where

nyc is 12-18... always has been... enjoy it

it's a tip of the hat to this arctic High, a 700mb low track like this should pour rain for anyone south of I84

surface begins warming too far up... essentially... 37 and snow won't work, however... heavy rates will collapse the column 100%... it's why i'm not buying the changeover in NYC when meso guidance is