NSFW Weather Guy

my bad my shit was froze it's the 18z i posted lol

Most of the guidance ive seen trys to induce stream interaction around hr54 (first pic) at that moment the eastward momentum of the northern stream would be slowed while the southern branch wave amplifies, allowing it to move ahead of the trough. A trail vort from the partial interaction would likely aid in tilting the trough to a favorable neutral or even Neg... imo, models are showing a stream break too fast.. the momentum from that partial interaction would be explosive to amplify our wave, but i've noticed guidance at hour 60 (pic 2)detaches our waves as if the interaction never occurred..

im on board

i talked a lot about this in my periscope last night... people are sleeping on the energy profile as H5 intensifies, we've been so caught up on the mid level evolution, we could be talking a secondary low development as tomrorow evening comes, throwing intense snowfall back toward the area, keep an eye

as hard as this is to believe, i think a lot of the guidance is under doing surface depiction and intensity, after this mid level vort pushes north it drags the CCB along with it, another area should develop off the 700mb ridge line and end where the trough line extends... the 700mb moisture fetch and easterly flow feeding this is astonishing, all the while our SLP is slowly slipping east... models are correct on the axis of heavier snow, where i disagree is the pivot point... LLJ supports a pivot axis about 30-50 miles south of where its currently modeled, holding dry air at bay, and continui

good chart showing a "modified" Miller B, similar to 96 set up... analogs coincide this setup

24 hours of straight blizzard qualification anyone?

easily 12-16

euro snows till 1 pm for most....wow

models arent giving the CAD enough credit....and it shows

6z euro drops the cold again

the worsts case i see for city folks, is as the best lift dynamics moves north over the hudson valley, a period of lighter rates, will usher in some mix or dry slot, but will be quickly over washed as the 700mb low begins its pivot east, and the better dynamic back flow back into the area from the swinging ULL

posted last night but it was about 2am... the initial warm air advection as the ULL presses into the Arctic High will produce Adiabatic cooling to counter the warm surge, during the period of max lift intense adiabatic cooling will change any borderline mix to snow... i am not expecting to see much sleet in the areas advertised as such... CAD is notoriously under-modeled even for currents OBS standards... and the CAD will aid the column during the intense period of best lift/mid level dynamics... anyone within and north of the FGEN banding max will change to snow imo

eps jumped south, and much more amplified