NSFW Weather Guy

WOW...... Euro..... that's all

With this injected northern stream shortwave, will come your cold air, early injection will tilt the trough neutral over Ohio valley Longitude, and develop secondary coastal low, and with it, comes your cold... rain to start, over to snow is def a possibility with this system... when the trough turns is all we're watching for

nearly 6" of just pure sleet around my area on the NAM lol... that'll be some ping fest

considering the depth of the warm tongue and marginal Surface temps for some of the areas being discussed with modeled heavier freezing rain, id expect the NWS is anticipating the totals to be overdone... remember, similar to snow... .10" liquid isn't always giving you 1" of snow... yet models calculate as such... .10" of freezing rain, isn't necessarily giving .10" ice accretion, "ice ratios" simply put are a factor here... personally, i'm taking half to 1/4 off the modeled totals in my forecasts for this storm... it's not a warm tongue and 23 and the surface

imagine thinking a quarter inch of pure freezing rain is a nuisance event lmao.... Ill also add that guy was only partially correct on assuming an ice warning is only .50" criteria... however it's .50" encompassing 50% of the warning area... so half inch lollies of freezing rain are possible but would not warrant an ice storm warning, the ice storm warnings are usually reserved for "wide spread" events, not 25 mile strip of heavy icing

Nams finally catching the lead vort interaction a few days ago, healthy front end this run for those interior areas

mean snowfall from top 15 Analogs

not too common when the EPS mean is snowier than the OP

yea too bad the best dynamics for it are like 300 miles offshore lol

i don't think anything has much dryslotting anymore... euros easily the driest model north of NYC

i'd like to see it pop a 999 NAM with a euro temp profile

full state

cut me right off why don't u

only thing i'm not of a fan of is how dry it appears, i haven't looked at Precip but, it was done in like 6 hours it seemed