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NSFW Weather Guy

Senior Wx Expert
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NSFW Weather Guy last won the day on November 9 2019

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About NSFW Weather Guy

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    Nov 15/16 - 12.2”
  • Birthday 11/07/1987

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    Wallkill NY

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  1. With this injected northern stream shortwave, will come your cold air, early injection will tilt the trough neutral over Ohio valley Longitude, and develop secondary coastal low, and with it, comes your cold... rain to start, over to snow is def a possibility with this system... when the trough turns is all we're watching for
  2. nearly 6" of just pure sleet around my area on the NAM lol... that'll be some ping fest
  3. considering the depth of the warm tongue and marginal Surface temps for some of the areas being discussed with modeled heavier freezing rain, id expect the NWS is anticipating the totals to be overdone... remember, similar to snow... .10" liquid isn't always giving you 1" of snow... yet models calculate as such... .10" of freezing rain, isn't necessarily giving .10" ice accretion, "ice ratios" simply put are a factor here... personally, i'm taking half to 1/4 off the modeled totals in my forecasts for this storm... it's not a warm tongue and 23 and the surface
  4. imagine thinking a quarter inch of pure freezing rain is a nuisance event lmao.... Ill also add that guy was only partially correct on assuming an ice warning is only .50" criteria... however it's .50" encompassing 50% of the warning area... so half inch lollies of freezing rain are possible but would not warrant an ice storm warning, the ice storm warnings are usually reserved for "wide spread" events, not 25 mile strip of heavy icing
  5. Nams finally catching the lead vort interaction a few days ago, healthy front end this run for those interior areas
  6. yea too bad the best dynamics for it are like 300 miles offshore lol
  7. i don't think anything has much dryslotting anymore... euros easily the driest model north of NYC
  8. only thing i'm not of a fan of is how dry it appears, i haven't looked at Precip but, it was done in like 6 hours it seemed
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