NSFW Weather Guy

Had some ask about the coorelation of the Forecasted EPO and the cold the gif shows the time period between 10 Oct and 23Oct, with selected highlighted frames coorelating to the Euros forecasted EPO guidance

Energy is there on GFS, just too strung out, and progressive. With that said, the GFS solution is a bit misleading IMO...it strikes me as odd to see a fairly robust SLP with this Energy distribution, well north of the Jetstream, as i stated with that NAO drop post, the Systems in this set up should favor the Jetstream, and unless im out to lunch ( which its 1230 so entirely possible) i dont see a running surface low, with no precip likely looking at this 250MB Jet

Euro says GGEM isnt as out to lunch as we would believe

GFS reloads another monster SW in that timefame as well... we all deserve a historic winter...lol

The 23rd-25th timeframe is interesting and bares watching, guidance is suggesting as the NAO is on its decline, it bottoms out around this timeframe, i would not be shocked to see a strom of magnitude in this bottoming we will have the westerly winds weakennig, resulting in finite upper air flow over the North Atlantic pushing all the way to the US East Coast. as our storm would be guided by the upper air, the upper air flow is weakened, in turn the storm would be slowed as well. If the forecasted NAO is correct, the storms need to be self diverted around the block to take its path of resistence. despite seeing this storm develop slightly north in Latitude compared to ideal, it should be slowed in comparison to the GFS for example. If you notice the difference in guidance between the GGEM/Euro for example, the GGEM is advertising an already Neg NAo/Bottomed out timeframe, hence our storm... if you notice however the other guidance, the NAO is "on its way" negative, but our energy outruns our ideal flow

just took a quick peek, only real difference between GGEM/Euro/GFS for this event is the timing the shortwave interjects, GGEm slows everything down, we get a Negative trough, and closed H5, GFS/Euro are progressive by about 12 hours

i dont particularly take the GGEM serious... with anything, however with that said... the time frsme has intrigued me for a couple weeks now... i did a periscope last night, don't sleep on the last couple weeks of October.. all the pieces should be there

Last EPS really hammers home the cold air, a what a duration... -3 to -7 on most days in the 15 day cycle run, that ridge continuesly reloads

#unfiltered... gorgeous

36f... holy shit

Big time temp swing coming Monday-Tuesday...some could see 30 degree swings in 12-14 hours

As good a confirmation from the CFS you will get, to support a central based nino patter, relaxed northern Jet, and enhanced southern stream..l looks like cold nov/dec... normal to slightly AN Jan...then cold feb/March/April..... we gotta good one coming this year

Hells yea

I’m down to 43f