rb924119 - 33andrain Jump to content


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rb924119 last won the day on June 18

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About rb924119

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    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

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  1. Congratulations!!! What a time to get it, just in time for the holiday season and to get an early jump on tournament soon-to-be expanded winter forecast skills and knowledge
  2. Fair enough, as I will wait for that data ad well before really pulling the trigger on a full write-up. But the feature you mention is only one piece out of a much larger system (hint, hint)
  3. Taking this run verbatim (yes, this is understandably a dangerous game), the correction required for this to work (which you correctly stated) would inherently occur as the lead time continues to decrease. My question to you (“you” being a relative term; anybody can offer opinion here, just fostering discussion) is: WHY do I say that (keeping my personal bias from statements made over the last several days regarding this period out of this)?
  4. Check our the differences in H5 evolution between yesterday’s 12z and then last night’s 00z Op runs, and then put that into the context of both my earlier statement and the other guidance. I don’t care what the surface looks like, verbatim the solutions are a little too far east, but the general premise is being shown to at least be a potential evolution.
  5. 00z Euro Op has come in with a relatively similar evolution......gonna be an interesting week again lol
  6. I see what you’re saying, but I thinks it’s just ultimately going to come down to wavespacing. So long as there’s sufficient spacing, the boundary will actually end up not being drawn too far northward due to the higher pressures becoming established across Canada and the cold press becoming more prominent. If the waves are too close, though, we will likely end up with strung out energy and milder temps with no real system to speak of. Either way, I’m trusting the process right now. Especially when tonight’s 00z runs (granted, longer range operational runs) have shown the ideas presented at least have merit........for now
  7. I do not have time to elaborate now, but the period from December 16th/17th through the 19th/20th is starting to really acquire my attention for our next possible wintry threat, and I am expecting that we may start to see more wintry runs in coming days. The crux of my argument presented last evening remains, and is present on all ensemble guidance; however, when we account for the stochastic reaction of the atmospheric streamflow in accordance with @Isotherm‘s progged evolution, we should see wavelengths shorten such that it results in a mean maintenance and then proliferation of western NAMER ridging at a key time. I will go into detail in coming days, provided my thinking remains unchanged, and nobody elaborates before I can get back to it haha
  8. Did you see what was attempted behind it? It’s close lol
  9. Check it through the end of the run, though I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised......
  10. I know it’s been stated before, but it truly is remarkable how these same regions have been targeted for several days (five or take a few wobbles). Meanwhile, we can’t seem to ever not live life on the edge and at the verge of nervous breakdowns when it’s our turn ahaha although where would the fun and excitement be if it was ever easy, right? Besides, we’re all here to become better forecasters anyway, even if the stress of each storm causes us to not reach the average life expectancy AhahAha
  11. Thanks! Yeah! I realized after I got off that I was a moron for not carrying it over lol I’ll move it there in a little while.
  12. Just for fun, and no, I swear I didn't look at this beforehand......check the progression of the Euro Control at H5: Then we start setting up for the next one lol