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rb924119 last won the day on February 15

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About rb924119

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    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

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  1. There is a reason why very few of us have been commenting on this event. The pattern simply does not support snow for the Mid-Atlantic. @donsutherland1’s post about the likely correction of the EURO suite, as well as the other models showing similar outcomes, is coming to pass. Meteorology over modelology.
  2. Honestly, I find it very hard to believe that it’s gonna snow in a marginal airmass in late March with a high escaping southeast of Newfoundland and a ripping south-southeasterly low-level flow. Then again, I haven’t looked too deeply at this, so what do I know? Lmao
  3. Precisely why I have the opinion that using those line/bar charts to assess indices is useless. It's all about the actual physical structure and evolution within the context of the entire hemispheric picture. Nice explanation @fireguy286!
  4. Keep in mind that this time of year return flow warmth is usually under-modeled by several degrees due to the rapidly increasing sun angle combined with the lack of foliage/transpiration (enhancing low-level moisture flux and albedo). This allows the surface to warm much more efficiently as the ground is able to readily absorb ever increasing amounts of insolation and then more efficiently warm the air immediately above thanks to the "lack" of low-level moisture/albedo. Further considering the fact that we are seeing notably drier than an average Spring season so far to date, this only adds to the likelihood that any warmth we see modeled (even up to the short term) will verify several degrees warmer. Additionally, reflecting back on our hypothetical conversation from a couple weeks ago, @SnowWolf87, I'm becoming more worried that we may be seeing the start of a hot/dry routine taking hold rather than a hot/warm/wet routine. If we don't start seeing more precipitation soon, that feedback will be harder and harder to break as we head deeper into the warm season. The only "good" that I see coming from that, is due to the lack of precipitation, it may help to retard early-season growth a bit and allow it to occur closer to average, which would help mitigate the impacts of a late-season freeze/frost, which I would be willing to bet money that we see at least one of this year (every Spring that I can remember following a non-winter featured at least one late-season hard freeze/frost that cost the local fruits/berries/nuts dearly). Maybe @donsutherland1 and/or @uncle w might have some stats on this? Either way, this also ties into why I think we see heightened early-season tropical activity close to the States as we head toward April/May.
  5. Based on some quick analysis, I wouldn't be getting my hopes up to see much (if any) snow from this "potential threat". From I've looked at, I think the southern stream system ends up taking a track further north/west as a result of a bolstered western Atlantic ridge, which would allow too much warm air to be drawn ahead of it, and then will phase too late for us reap the benefits of the fresh injection of cold air (as would be typical for a Miller-B). That will likely be reserved for central and northern New England.
  6. You literally just yesterday cancelled your StormVista account and decreed that Winter was over lmao you’re too funny, but I respect the dedication haha
  7. Don’t get excited; it’s simply a change in timing, not overall evolution.
  8. I agree with you on the expected failure of the BECFs to make headway further south, especially given the pre-conditioning of a lack of ambient cold air to date coming into the warm season. I was simply posing questions.....I love intellectual/hypothetical discussions, and given the status of things and the general relevance to the thread, didn’t see the harm haha And, for the record, I’m not a big thunderstorm guy. I understand them, but I’ll be honest and say that I don’t really forecast for them or really enjoy it, so my skill is pretty minimal. Again, was mainly posing further questions for our hypothetical discussion with a little opinion thrown in lol so there’s a good chance you’re on the right track, as I assume you’ve been much more observant than I have of loading patterns and their eventual effects.
  9. I gotta go with Bertha ahaha wasn’t there a hurricane Fay(e) that was bad? And I almost thought Wilfred too, but I was definitely thinking of Wilma lmao Hell hath no fury......y’all know the rest of it
  10. Your second comment is a double-edged sword, at least conceptually. I agree with you, but there are some counter-veiling concepts. Assuming the status quo, and that your warm/wet assumption holds, let’s think about this (conceptually): f you’re warm and moist, wouldn’t backdoor fronts have a tendency to overperform? Thermodynamically, density would argue for this, as you’d have anomalously lower pressure versus that behind the front, so you'd have a stronger low-level PGF driving the front. However, I see what you’re getting at also with the relationship aloft (enhanced mid- and upper-level ridging) and agree with your thoughts. Secondly, your warmth/moisture would certainly allow for an enhancement of the instability for surface-based and low-level sourced air parcels relative to average, but by the same token, drawing on similar arguments as in the previous point, you would probably reduce the overall lower-level shear profile (relative to the “average” observed shear during events) as you would have a weakened low-level PGF compared to average (weaker onshore flow thanks to a decreased disparity between the low-level Atlantic airmass and the warmth/moisture surging ahead of any system). Obviously, the more potent the system overall, then you could have a more explosive setup, but that would depend upon its trajectory (can you get a decent EML to advect across the CONUS from the Plains?). Otherwise, I could/would envision many more training events with sub-severe cells/quasi-linear sub-severe squall lines embedded in deep-layer nearly unidirectional flow (south-southwesterly, as the reduced low-level PGF allows those winds to more closely resemble/align with those further aloft). I think, and assuming the status quo in your original thought, this would be a better setup for enhanced severe rainfall events overall, rather than enhanced severe thunderstorm threats. Reason being, this setup would generally be in a (relatively speaking) general convective state, similarly to Florida, where the atmosphere is regularly allowing for widespread convection as there is no real cap (nearly moist adiabatic) rather than allowing instability to really build and then be released explosively in a more sheared environment (unless you get a strong system with a decent EML). Essentially, I can see this being similar to 2018, with nearly daily rainfall but not much severe weather to really speak of (though lightning would probably be awesome again). This isn’t to say that we wouldn’t see any severe storms, but (at face value and with the little bit of thought) I might think we see disproportionately more flood alerts than severe storm alerts. I’m at work, so I’m trying to be concise, but if that didn't explain my ponderances well enough let me know haha I’d also have to sit and look/think further in order to really take a firm stance.......this is all conjecture on my end right now Additionally, does a wet start progress into a cooler mid- and late-season as the soil moisture content retards surface heating and work to transition into a time-mean trough from the bottom up? In this case, I’d argue that it wouldn’t given the discussion heretofore, but this is yet another possible point of contention lol
  11. I wasn’t necessarily speaking about our “local” chances of that, but more within the context of early-season tropical activity near the entire southern, southeastern, and Mid-Atlantic coastlines in general. But yes, especially later in the season and assuming status quo, your comment is very much valid.
  12. Dude, so weird you just posted this lol you’ll understand once you see my post in the other thread aha
  13. @SnowWolf87 is ripping right now lmao pretty sure you’re the one on the roll because your comments are like butter right now This is me just generally thinking out loud, but also positing for the sake of discussion, but, some things are catching my eye for the possibility of some heightened early-season tropical development; namely the state of the western Atlantic anomalies and the long-standing persistence of this progressive pattern. There is and has been a clear propensity for low-level ridging to propagate across the southern Mid-latitudes/northern Sub-tropics, and I could easily see how we get at least one late-season cool shot that penetrates quite far equatorward, and then as that front would slow and decay, the low-level ridging over the top would enhance the low-level convergence and with the anomalously warm SSTs in the region potentially force a system to spin up close to the mainland. I can’t say for certain as I haven’t put much thought into this yet, but it might be worth looking into as we get closer to this season. @donsutherland1, might you have any statistics regarding the historical context of similar mid- to late-winter progressions and early-season tropical activity (say, April 1- June 15, roughly)?
  14. I love listening to/reading JB and have learned a lot from him over the last few years, but I’ve gotta be honest and say that I’m growing pretty frustrated with him over the last several weeks. I feel like he has completely lost sight of the goal of objective analysis and is grasping at any straw he can find to support his forecast/cold and snow bias. He seems to be completely ignoring anything that counters his hopes (which is a lot lol) and it’s really getting annoying. He’s trying to draw comparisons to past patterns and setups that just are not there and then project those comparisons onto the modeling and it’s getting pretty painful to watch, as he seems to be getting drawn into the fool’s hope repeatedly and making the same mistakes over and over. Glad that’s off my chest. Back to silently following aha
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