rb924119 - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content

rb924119

Meteorologist
  • Content Count

    790
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

rb924119 last won the day on June 18 2018

rb924119 had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

2,189 Excellent

1 Follower

About rb924119

  • Rank
    Star Member

Personal Information

  • Location
    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. (GULP). Lol that’s close to a flow reversal there, no, at least at 10hPa?
  2. I noticed this back in October but didn’t want to say anything, as it had not been established/observed yet. However, this is a key point to keep in mind as we progress toward/into Meteorological Winter......these quasi-permanent patterns that constantly ebb and flow throughout the hemisphere via stochastic events. It may just so happen, as @Analog96 mentioned last week, that we might actually be witnessing one of those hemispheric quasi-permanent regime changes taking place. With outlooks like @Isotherm‘s and others (haven’t caught up on them yet, but word travels fast when people of your caliber speak ), though, I remain cautiously optimistic that is the case.
  3. Playing with fire here obviously, but as hypothesized yesterday to draw up your storm threat That 50/50 low would certainly help the cause lol
  4. The very end of the 12z GEFS is very interesting as, and piggybacks with @earthlight‘s tweet: Some ridging begins to rebuild back into the EPO/WPO domains as the Atlantic ridging continues to retrograde in concert with a (progged) equatorward strengthening of the Aleutian low. In theory, this should also allow a PNA spike within a few days via typical Rossby wave amplification, and would therefore also support the thinking of a winter storm threat during the first week of December........with truly Arctic air seemingly available. Only one run of an ensemble, but a very promising one nonetheless. I also note our anchor feature, 70/70 ridge still shows up as well, though with admittedly weaker support than our first round progged through the next ten days was at a similar lead.
  5. In case you all were wondering, crow doesn’t taste too good. That’s 0-1 on the year.......yeesh I’m rusty
  6. I just can’t see it man. Honestly, I can’t. But, I’ll give it until tomorrow night’s 00z before folding. If nothing else, chalk it up to a learning experience haha Yeah, but when it jumps the surface feature 150 miles north after steadily ticking south since yesterday, that’s a pretty big pie in the face lol
  7. NAM looking more amped through 36. Ughh. Might have to fold my hand soon if this keeps up lol
  8. I actually DO remember this one!! My parents and I were supposed to go to Edison for Thanksgiving at my great aunt’s but we didn’t because we had 11” of snow in the dooryard that we had to dig out from haha
  9. Welcome aboard!! Some components are similar, though if I recall correctly, the overall evolution is a bit different. However, your point is still valid, and with the amount of cold available, I personally am still tending to bank on this given my earlier analysis. Seeing as though that is several days old at this point, though, next chance I get I will re-evaluate haha
  10. STRONGLY agree with you here. This whole cutting presentation has bothered me from the getgo. Synoptically, in my opinion, it doesn’t fit, and on a more meso-scale level, it’s very hard to drive a weak system up the spine of the Appalachians, especially as far north as northern New England. With uniform southwesterly flow through the lower levels, this should work to “jump” the system to the east of the mountains long before it gets that far north, probably over Virginia, but possibly even northern North Carolina. This is because with a poorly defined circulation and pressure only marginally lower than that of its surroundings, it will tend to drift via the isallobaric flow amid the broader-scale ascent induced synoptically instead of maintaining its circulation and trajectory. Without any cold damming, this would be in the lee of the mountains as you would achieve a small, yet non-insignificant degree of compressional warming/pressure falls, relative to the system itself and to the ambient environment upstream.
  11. I see what you did there what’s interesting to me is that there has been a clear eastward shift in the GFS Ensembles over the last several cycles, as well as the GEM suite, and even the SREFs, which somehow are the furthest EAST. Not sure if it’s a legitimate red flag by them and they are leading the way, or they’re just wrong. Time will tell, but right now appears the former rather than the latter.
  12. Yup, I was only judging by the tidbits 850 temp map lol that’s what happens when you try extrapolating with incomplete data aha
  13. Something about how the models are presenting the evolution of this system is just rubbing me the wrong way......it just doesn’t look right to me. And no, it’s not wishful thinking that’s tainting my opinion lol
×
×
  • Create New...