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rb924119

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rb924119 last won the day on June 18

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About rb924119

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    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

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  1. rb924119

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Don't be surprised to hear of some wet snowflake reports this weekend in the interior higher terrain. I think this weak disturbance will have enough, though marginal, cold air to produce some of the illusive white crystals
  2. rb924119

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    The following is a quote of myself from prior to Michael's landfall, then followed by some further thoughts as to why I was completely out of phase with reality, for those of you interested: "You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following: If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other." Thinking back more on this, and about why I might have been looking at this the wrong way, it struck me: This system was DIFFERENT from other systems this season, and from other systems where I have used this similar thought process. Obviously each system is different, but there were a few this season where I distinctly remember successfully using this parameter as a metric to gauge if a system would strengthen or not as it approached the U.S. mainland, or wherever else their destinations were (some were just out in the open water). Anyway, these previous systems were all headed directly into broad regions of anomalously high pressure, thereby experiencing enhanced lower-level convergence. HOWEVER, their forward speeds remained relatively unchanged as they progressed. Michael, though; was different. Even though Michael was headed into a region with significantly lower than normal pressure anomalies across the eastern CONUS, its forward speed was steadily but rapidly INCREASING as it drew nearer to the U.S. Because of this, I hypothesize that this helped to overcome the impact that I originally expected **with regard to the role of lower-level pressure anomalies interfering with the lower-level convergence around the storm's circulation**, as the increasing forward speed helped to negate the lack of lower-level convergence/divergence caused by the system coming through the Central Plains. Now, the other environmental conditions could have simply overwhelmed the surface, but I suspect not entirely, as again, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect their environment needs to be. However, this will be an interesting thought to test on future systems to see if it might have merit. Anyway, a little post-storm reflection never hurts.
  3. rb924119

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Yeah, unfortunately my earlier hypothesis regarding the alteration of the environmental low-level pressure anomalies working to destructively interfere with the strengthening process appears off course, and this storm is gonna barrel in at maximum intensity. I hope these people are ok in the end. While it’s a great meteorological phenomenon to observe and learning experience for me, it’s a worst nightmare for everybody in its path. Personal gains aside, I was really hoping the idea of decreasing in intensity would have merit.
  4. rb924119

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following: If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.
  5. rb924119

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Many thanks for your kind remarks, @mbaer1970!! I try to aid in furthering meaningful discussion when I can, and agree that this is a great forum!
  6. rb924119

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    I can see how this system tracks further northwest than currently progged by some guidance (EURO/NAM/etc.) taking it southeast of the Delmarva. With a rapidly developing tropical cyclone so close by to an already amplified eastern U.S. ridge, anomalously warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, and general Northern Hemispheric synoptic pattern that supports a strong eastern U.S. ridge bolstered by the MJO Phase 1, this should allow the remnant circulation of Michael to trend further northwestward in future model runs in my opinion, such that it passes either over or very nearby our region in the end. The role of the cyclone should be further aid in enhancing the eastern ridge via its intense diabatic outflow and feedback effects positively interacting with the other factors outlined above. Just my two cents lol
  7. rb924119

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Not sure if I should put this here or in another thread, so please feel free to move this if it belongs elsewhere Hi Everybody!! Please visit the link below to view my latest video outlook, where I discuss how I think the pattern is going to evolve over the next several weeks and why, and when/if I foresee any potential pattern change. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1p61HLCDQxPTBYx1KfK_Xe-Eg8wThwLeo Please note that in the last slide, the middle graphic is a graphic of EURO Op 200 hPa velocity potential and divergent wind. While it was only a graphic at Day 10, I put it up there because I wanted to use it to explain a key concept of my Niño 1.2 prediction of why we will be seeing a resurgence of those positive anomalies again before we see them decline. As the MJO pulse continues to propagate through Phase 1 and into Phase 2, we will start to see a reversal of the lower-level pressure field and associated winds from easterly (which has led to the current decline in the SST anomalies) to westerly after about Days 4-6 and through Days 13-15. This will allow those waters to begin warming again as downwelling begins to occur. However, once the MJO enters the Null Phase and then begins to re-emerge into Phases 7-8 as I expect during Weeks 3 and 4, this will allow the pressure perturbations governed by the new MJO pulse and resultant vertical circulations to reverse the pressure patters again in this region, therefore resuming an anomalous easterly component to the wind in and around Niño region 1.2 such that it's lagged effect to help induce troughing into the Eastern CONUS during my target period will constructively interfere with the other factors outlined. I apologize for not really covering this in the video, but hopefully this made sense. If there are any questions, comments, concerns **about the thoughts outlined in my video**, please feel free to leave them here! Thank you!!
  8. Agree, definitely appears to be moving due north during the recent imagery.
  9. If the storm takes this track, it just does not make physical sense to me that the pressure would rise this little. The core circulation would HAVE to be disrupted. Idk. Maybe I'm looking at everything the wrong way.
  10. Based on the hemispheric setup and propensity of troughs lose steam over the anomalously warm western and central Atlantic, the GFS/EURO may be overdoing its southward extent. Edit: discussing the west-central ATLANTIC trough
  11. Difference between the NAM and GFS/EURO is how the west-central trough interplay is handled. GFS/EURO try to partially interact the trough with Florence and give it "the boot" just enough to impart a N-S steering component, whereas the NAM does not.
  12. Probably going to catch hell for this, but I'm sick and don't care lol The 18z NAM's current depiction makes the most sense to me given how things have evolved, along with parts of my initial ideas. If I was to make a forecast, I would keep my same landfall spot as I provided what will be a week ago tomorrow, but adjust the second "leg" basis the following: Even if there is no initial landfall, I believe that Florence would drift into the coast, ride it northward for a (relatively) short distance, then drift inland (with erratic, but generally westward and then northwestward motion). The reason for this is dynamical. Yes, I understand that the ridging is strong and the storm cannot simply cut through it. While the strength of the ridge was not something that I ever personally felt that I underestimated given all of the sources of latent heat energy available to feed back, I (apparently) underestimated its impact along its southern periphery, which is why I initially thought that it would reach the Delmarva before it had its northward progression halted. Why? Because the body of the anomaly is centered so far north and west compared to climatology, I assumed with a storm that has a fair forward speed would be able to penetrate a little more deeply before losing momentum. As of now, that appears to have been an incorrect assumption. However, my thinking for the above correction is not based on that, but on the dynamics of the wind field of the storm itself. With a storm/winds this powerful, even IF the eye does not make a technical landfall during the initial northwestward progression, as long as it's sufficiently close to the coast such that the stronger wind velocities within the CDO/eye wall can begin interacting with the coastline, this will begin to create mesoscale pressure imbalances between the north and south sides of the storm. Think about it - in the northeastern and northwestern quadrants the wind will be forced to begin converging due to the natural effects of friction. However, on the south side, the air will actually begin to diverge as the wind can again accelerate over the open water as it comes from the southwestern through the southeastern quadrant. Where the air is converging at the surface, it will induce a local trough of lower pressure and be forced to rise, whereas the diverging air to the south will induce locally higher pressure as air sinks to replace it. Now, again, this will likely occur (in my opinion, of course), even if the eye is still offshore, and will not persist indefinitely as the storm spins down. Secondarily, this will also begin working to help elongate the central circulation and disrupt its uniform nature. Once this process begins, it will quickly work to begin disrupting the central circulation, as storms of this magnitude can only attain such strength because the conditions are perfect and allow it to. Once those conditions are altered, the storm has only one way to go, down in intensity. Now, please do not misunderstand me here. I am not saying it will go from 60-0 immediately. All I am saying is that I do not foresee the storm MAINTAINING its initial intensity, or taking as long to spin down like some of the models show. As the system begins to decay from the inside, the wind imbalances will then start acting to try to draw the system away from land (think of vectors!), but due to the anomalous ridging out ahead of it and weakness in the ridging to its west, and is then why I think it gets "bullied" inland and decays in North Carolina. Similarly, this also why I do not agree with the sudden depictions of the storm traversing further south with a (secondary?) landfall in South Carolina. I could be totally off on this, but hopefully it's some food for thought, and if nothing else, I hope you enjoyed the read lol
  13. Its basically identical to 12z, though. So nothing more than model noise at this point, in my opinion.
  14. Im not saying to take it verbatim. All I'm saying is that in the last few years it has performed just as well, if not better than any other model within its temporal range, and I think it is helpful to at least just look at its progression and see what, if any, differences, exist between it and other guidance. And as I said before, just because other "experts" don't use it, doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't. I have had the same forecast track of Florence out for almost a week now, so obviously I didn't use it (yet). But that also doesn't mean that I just completely don't pay attention to it once it starts coming into range. Whether or not others use it doesn't matter to me because I'm not them. I don't know what their forecast procedures or methodologies are, nor do I know their reasons for them. If they want to completely disregard something then that's on them, but I'd rather keep an open mind, figure out where a model can/can't be useful, and apply bias corrections accordingly. Remember, these are models; tools to help us get a final product. Just because you have a Phillips head screw doesn't mean you can't use a flat-head screw driver to get the job done. So to answer your a question, yes, I will absolutely look at the NAM as it continues to come into better range and factor it in with my previous ideas, current guidance, and newly formed ideas, to make any adjustments necessary to my initial forecast track. Lastly, I don't appreciate being frowned upon because I do something differently. I may disagree with your sentiments about the NAM, but I certainly don't think they make you any less of a forecaster, as you insinuated about me above. I try to add value and insight, and provide open, unbiased, and complete analysis of what I think and why, and if you don't agree with how I do things then I can take my contributions elsewhere.
  15. Off-hour runs are something I never give much weight to, but on the 00z/12z runs I disagree. You can still use it to diagnose surrounding patterns/pick out differences.
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