rb924119 - 33andrain Jump to content


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rb924119 last won the day on June 18 2018

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About rb924119

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    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

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  1. Also, using the GFS at shorter ranges is risky enough, let alone in the extended aha
  2. I wouldn’t exactly call last summer “dry” for the CONUS; looks more like a push to me: Definitely was warm though aha
  3. Im in it right now in Pike County, Pa and the bark is worse than the bite. Been a steady light snow here all afternoon and evening.
  4. Unfortunately, time did not allow for me to go into further detail, and now the event is over, so the analysis would appear to be hindsight (even though i would still provide the same assessment) and no longer holds any forecasting value. So I want to apologize for not giving you (all) a deeper discussion. However, I also want to sincerely thank you for your compliment - it honestly made my night. I truly appreciate that and must admit that you made me feel pretty darn good I just wish I could post more and give more details behind my thought processes, but my life just isn’t really allowing it right now, so my posting (and forecast accuracy/verification) are suffering noteably as a result. It upsets me for multiple reasons, but there isn’t much I can do except post when I can. Hopefully I can add some further value to the discussion in the not so distant future, though!!
  5. Watch the evolution across PA through the last several runs, and you’ll see the max continuing to shift northeastward. About four runs ago, it had a 5” max near Harrisburg, but they have yet to see a flake and the precip shield is already on its way out. That’s all I’m saying.
  6. First off, I didn’t realize you meant only for NYC. However, in the images below you can see that only Allentown is reporting light snow (which just started) while the HRRR indicates that it should be snowing all across SE PA. It’s been raining there for a couple hours already.
  7. Respectfully disagree. I can’t find any observations denoting snowfall where it should be snowing basis modeling. And given the distribution of observations in relation to the system, there is an indication of a definite warm nose somewhere near the upper limit of turn Boundary Layer. Something to also notice is how the HRRR is not only consistently slowly reducing totals over the last few cycles, but also shifting them further northeastward as it realizes that it’s not snowing where it says it should be early in the runs.
  8. As a follow up, I also think it will be a narrow band of snowfall accumulations within the 1-3/2-4 range, as the aforementioned overlaps between components will be minimal. Again, only my opinion; Mother Nature holds all the cards haha
  9. I’m honestly not impressed at all by the forcing mechanisms in play for our region, and generally think they get their acts together too late for us to really capitalize on. Secondly, there will be a warm surge with this that won’t have much resistance thanks to the staleness of the airmass and no real other support to help involve sufficiently cold air. So, where you get the heavier precip, it’s likely to turn to slop/rain, and where you’re cold enough, you won’t have nearly as much precip to work with. Third, overall system progression is very rapid, and will be in and out in roughly 4-6 hours. This is HIGHLY abbreviated, but I’m at work lol if I get time, I may try to elaborate further if you wish.
  10. I don’t contest this, as I consider 1-3/2-4 ranges essentially equivalent. My reason for specifying the former versus the latter is simply due to how i think the general distribution will work out. I feel 1-2/3” amounts will be common, but 4” would be highly localized/isolated (more the anomaly than the rule, so to speak) outside of southeastern New England.
  11. I think the NWS is much too high outside of southereastern New England. But that’s just me lol Scott’s (sroc’s) map is much more reasonable, and even 4” I think will be largely unattainable. Personally my max would be a narrow strip of 1-3” just north of the City on a SW-NE axis.
  12. Dude lol I agreed with you, but the stipulation is that the snow cover needs to be deeper in order to be able to have the effect because of the increased radiation absorption this time of year being able to melt more snow. Two inches of snow in March does not last long, even if it’s cloudy, with temps near freezing because there is still a net increase in insolation absorption by the surface. If the snowpack is sufficiently deep so as to mitigate this, then yes, absolutely your point is valid.
  13. That would not be enough to matter this time of year, especially in the urban corridor. That will easily disappear by day’s end with temps near freezing give increasing insolation. January/December? Sure, there would be some impact. You need deeper snowcover in the urban areas to really influence that.
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