Jump to content

rb924119

Meteorologist
  • Content Count

    1,246
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

rb924119 last won the day on February 15

rb924119 had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

3,288 Excellent

1 Follower

About rb924119

  • Rank
    Superstar Member

Personal Information

  • Location
    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. At face value, this would lead me to believe that my more recent ideas have merit........but I know better than to take the CFS at face value at several months lead without looking more closely at other information aha This actually looks VERY suppressed to me with regard to latitudinal displacement. If you were to get waves along that trajectory, I wouldn’t expect much activity until they get to within a few days of the Gulf/US mainland. Lack of Coriolis and tremendous interference from extremely dry northeastern South American downsloped air entrainment would largely inhibit any significant development prior to that window (unless the system(s) is/are very small). In my opinion, for an active wave season, and especially for higher threats to the East Coast, you’d want to see those anomalies closer to (or over) the Cape Verdes. This is just me looking at face value and giving my .02-worth, of course, so keep that in mind haha
  2. I postulated last week with a couple coworkers that I wonder if we don’t quiet down substantially during the second-half, and climatological peak, of the season. We seem to be experiencing periods of ~3-5 months of alternating large-scale forcing in the equatorial Pacific since last year (largely enhancing particular phases of the MJO, 8-3/4-7 in alternate fashion), and this period of more favorable alignment began back in the beginning of April, even if we only recently realized the tropical potential. Therefore, if we extrapolated this out, July-August should show a reversal/downward trend in tropical activity, *assuming this observation would hold*. I have not looked seriously into this yet, but it’s an interesting observation/out loud thought, at least to me lol
  3. I’m officially celebrating now, since we have our first TD: During the first week of March, I offered the window from Week 3 of April through mid-May as the most likely for our first threat in a discussion with people at my work, but I’m not sure I ever posted it, or if I did, can’t find it lol anyway, this isn’t a bragging post, just a public verification since I haven’t posted much since the above.
  4. Never fails, man. Every time we have a mild winter the pattern reverts in the spring. That’s why I laugh whenever I hear people cheering on the mild winter, because then they all complain about how miserable the following spring is aha
  5. @PB GFI, I see JB is picking up on this now as well........
  6. @SnowWolf87, long time, no speak (unfortunately) lol not that I trust the model as far as I could throw it, but I was looking at the last couple runs of the GFS Op and saw it trying to pop an early-season trop in the US Gulf/Western Atlantic coastal waters at the end of its runs, and it reminded me of (and perfectly represented) our discussion way back at the beginning of March and the period from Week 3 of April through mid-May. I haven’t looked at anything deeply since then so I’m not sure if the idea still holds any merit, but it at least raised my eyebrow, gave me a reason to post, and gave me a reason to start actively analyzing again haha hope you’re doing well!
  7. It would have been the temps had that precip made it northward. If it makes you feel any better, I never saw any snow. Still raining lmao
  8. LMAO!! Already a bust here in Fishkill; never even saw a flake.
  9. Same rules apply as every other event this Winter: You’re not gonna snow meaningfully on a south wind in a marginal airmass, especially in mid-April lol watch for a late shift north of about another 50 miles. The axis of snow will be very narrow, and likely max out in the 2-5” range across the elevations of central NY State and central New England (centering approximately on the Mass Pike). At least this is my opinion.
  10. Honestly, instrumentation is not something that I have nearly enough experience with to be of any help with on this. I’ve never had an actual weather station, so I would need to really sit down and do some research on how it all works before even attempting to help lol the one thing I will say, though, is that this seems like something that will need to be extremely customized based on your surroundings (tree height, foliage factor, eddy/turbulence prevalence, etc., and then any biases that may exist on account of the wind direction) so there may need to be a level of crude approximation no matter what we can find lol
  11. 62 mph reported at Beacon mesonet with reports of a tractor trailer being blown off I-84.
  12. I’ve been getting absolutely rocked here in Fishkill. Massive gusts. I don’t have an anemometer, but I’ve seen a lot of wind in my day, and I can 100% say that the 28-34 kt gusts being reported at KPOU are significantly too low for my local area. Easily 40-50 mph gusts all morning. I’ve already watched two tree go in my apartment complex, but I can confirm one was harmless. Not sure about the other as it fell behind one of the buildings. No car alarms went off, though, so that might have been harmless too. Power has now been flickering for the last 20 minutes. Should be an interesting day aha
  13. We really need to discontinue the GFS. It’s beyond bad.
  14. Why did you tag me, of all people? Aha now that we’re between my personal two seasons of interest (winter, and interestingly, increasingly tropics), I tend to drop off for a bit. And I don’t take part in any other thread besides the weather because I come here to enjoy myself, not get caught up in politics/non-weather related issues
×
×
  • Create New...