rb924119 - 33andrain Jump to content


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rb924119 last won the day on June 18 2018

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About rb924119

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    Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

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  1. Could we be seeing a secondary circulation manifesting in response to the deeper convection offshore, as discussed above? Not entirely sure, but the below radar image might be trying to hint at that (annotation in red), and this seemingly matches recent satellite imagery.....time will tell. In general, though, I just find the evolution of this system very odd lol
  2. Hahaha “Open my eyes, and I shall see”.....thanks for the assist! Lmao
  3. Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):
  4. Yeah, but even with trops, I’m surprised that they would just release it that soon after the “corrections” without running it for a sufficient time in parallel with the base model to see if any known biases were actually changed and/or if any new ones emerged, and to see if accuracy was actually improved. You can’t just tweak something and assume those changes will be isolated. You know what I’m saying?
  5. To add to this, anybody else find it curious that they are releasing it as operational now that it’s summer, when a not insignificant portion of its problems were highlighted with its snowfall prediction? I’m really nervous about this model.
  6. Also, using the GFS at shorter ranges is risky enough, let alone in the extended aha
  7. I wouldn’t exactly call last summer “dry” for the CONUS; looks more like a push to me: Definitely was warm though aha
  8. Im in it right now in Pike County, Pa and the bark is worse than the bite. Been a steady light snow here all afternoon and evening.
  9. Unfortunately, time did not allow for me to go into further detail, and now the event is over, so the analysis would appear to be hindsight (even though i would still provide the same assessment) and no longer holds any forecasting value. So I want to apologize for not giving you (all) a deeper discussion. However, I also want to sincerely thank you for your compliment - it honestly made my night. I truly appreciate that and must admit that you made me feel pretty darn good I just wish I could post more and give more details behind my thought processes, but my life just isn’t really allowing it right now, so my posting (and forecast accuracy/verification) are suffering noteably as a result. It upsets me for multiple reasons, but there isn’t much I can do except post when I can. Hopefully I can add some further value to the discussion in the not so distant future, though!!
  10. Watch the evolution across PA through the last several runs, and you’ll see the max continuing to shift northeastward. About four runs ago, it had a 5” max near Harrisburg, but they have yet to see a flake and the precip shield is already on its way out. That’s all I’m saying.
  11. First off, I didn’t realize you meant only for NYC. However, in the images below you can see that only Allentown is reporting light snow (which just started) while the HRRR indicates that it should be snowing all across SE PA. It’s been raining there for a couple hours already.
  12. Respectfully disagree. I can’t find any observations denoting snowfall where it should be snowing basis modeling. And given the distribution of observations in relation to the system, there is an indication of a definite warm nose somewhere near the upper limit of turn Boundary Layer. Something to also notice is how the HRRR is not only consistently slowly reducing totals over the last few cycles, but also shifting them further northeastward as it realizes that it’s not snowing where it says it should be early in the runs.
  13. As a follow up, I also think it will be a narrow band of snowfall accumulations within the 1-3/2-4 range, as the aforementioned overlaps between components will be minimal. Again, only my opinion; Mother Nature holds all the cards haha
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