ThunderSnow4

I’m sorry, desperation? I live north of Scranton so im not to desperate for this storm. It was just a simple observation.

HRRR at 18z was considerably colder than other modeling. I know it’s “long Range” for the HRRR but it’ll be interesting to see how HRRR handles this moving forward..

850mb low is notable south compared to 18z on this run.

NAM seems weaker for sure so far. Not sure where this leads downstream but this could be a sign of more advanced sampling as 18z gfs hinted at a slightly weaker vort.

Can you post a new link? This one seems to not be working

Euro ensemble mean stayed the course from 12z, it might have even ticked southeast a tad. This is also displayed via the mean snowfall output.

Massive signal on the GEFS for the 24th-26th timeframe as well!

I measured a rate of 5.4” per hour in Stella here in NEPA! This upcoming pattern has potential for everyone! Both inland and coastal areas.

Curious.. clearly there is a strong NW lean. But there is no low pressure centers where the lowest pressure is shown on the contours. All centers are positioned to the north and northwest of countered center. So how is it being depicted there in the mean?

Youre from NEPA right? So am I.. but come on man! In this area we all want a March 2017 repeat but every 10 day storm on the GFS is not Stella!

Not really. The control run was pretty bonkers to be honest.

Actually the FV3 has been fairly consistent. Not saying this means it will be right. Just seems to be more consistent than its counterpart which is the current OP GFS.

CFS showed the same thing at its 00z run.

I’m in Scranton PA. 4.5” snow and absolutely puking snow right now. Snow started here around 130.