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  1. ThunderSnow4

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    I’m in Scranton PA. 4.5” snow and absolutely puking snow right now. Snow started here around 130.
  2. ThunderSnow4

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    22z HRRR out to hour 18 hours is much colder than any other guidance.
  3. ThunderSnow4

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    I have a quick question. I notice a lot of high res models are picking up on a sleet turnover in the valleys first and the mountainous areas later. Wouldn’t this not be the case? Shouldn’t the turnover happen more so I’m unison and in a south to north Fashion? I live in the Scranton area (low elevation) and have noticed on the NAM 3k that the mountains around me are modeled to stay snow longer. Given where the warm nose is it seems to me that I should flip to sleet the same time they would. Am I right?
  4. No it certainly is not. There has only been one NESIS storm in November ever, and it was in 2014.
  5. ThunderSnow4

    Season Total Snowfall Forecast Contest.

    53.4”.. majority comes from 3 major storms.
  6. Had to give cranky the unfollow. He’s now bragging that he was right and all that. I can’t even...
  7. Latest recon pass up to 112knots unflagged at the surface.
  8. Does anyone have the Dvorak scale reading? I’m thinking ~T6.5?
  9. Hot towers are fully wrapped around. Next recon pass should be lower once again.
  10. What the hell is cranky talking about!!! Latest recon done to 951.8, and falling quick. UNFLAGGED surface winds of 106knots! 120 mph! How the hell can you say it’s lost strength today. He has a big following too.
  11. Eye looks like it may be trying to finally pop out last few frames on infrared.
  12. Satellite images haven’t been matching much to the surface winds recently. However satellite image seems to be taking off. Looking better by the minute on satellite if I’m seeing correctly.
  13. To add to what dualjet is mentioning about the 3km NAM, it also had a projected presssure of 956 at 8pm tonight and that’s exactly what recon pinned it at. Could just be pure coincidence. However, question is, is NAM doing its usual over deepening or can it actually score the coup and we see an uptick in intensity tomorrow prior to landfall. Thoughts?
  14. Does anyone have today’s euro model rainfall output for remnant rains in PA?
  15. Looks like winds of 115 knots found in NE eyewall via latest recon pass. Category 4 strength.