ThunderSnow4

Thanksgiving timeframe looks massively different of the GEFS at 18z. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/0f46119b-0585-4b18-b158-a796ca01c203

Can you post the euro run for that timeframe? Can only see TT and it looks close

How about NEPA?

Think there is any merit to a bump NW at the last minute? HRDPS showed some signs of that. I am doubting it though. We have been progressive all season. I don’t see any reason to believe this shifts N and W as we move forward.

As in they are farther west? Or just decrease in total QPF?

But it seems you’re also drawing conclusions that certain models will not be right and that this will shift SE.

Signal on the 10th-12th is persistent. Maybe a big pattern changing system?

Was a simple observation of my untrained eye. But welcome to 33! A great first post by you!

Current radar seems further north than most modeling at this CURRENT hour. Can anyone confirm or care to comment further?

Am I missing something? HRDPS was basically insane and no one posted it?

Awesome analysis so far on here today! Sheesh the FV3 appears to me a big hit! Wasn’t it supposed to overtake the GFS a while ago? If not can someone fill me in on when that take over will commence? It has performed very poorly in our neck of the woods.

I don’t believe the 12z OP euro snowfall output was posted.

Wow FV3! This is a big test for it. If the 18z gfs showed what the FV3 showed this forum would be going nuts.

Look at the run to run shifts people! Hell the GFS doesn’t even have a storm!