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Everything posted by ThunderSnow4

  1. Thanksgiving timeframe looks massively different of the GEFS at 18z. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/0f46119b-0585-4b18-b158-a796ca01c203
  2. Can you post the euro run for that timeframe? Can only see TT and it looks close
  3. Think there is any merit to a bump NW at the last minute? HRDPS showed some signs of that. I am doubting it though. We have been progressive all season. I don’t see any reason to believe this shifts N and W as we move forward.
  4. As in they are farther west? Or just decrease in total QPF?
  5. But it seems you’re also drawing conclusions that certain models will not be right and that this will shift SE.
  6. Signal on the 10th-12th is persistent. Maybe a big pattern changing system?
  7. Was a simple observation of my untrained eye. But welcome to 33! A great first post by you!
  8. Current radar seems further north than most modeling at this CURRENT hour. Can anyone confirm or care to comment further?
  9. Am I missing something? HRDPS was basically insane and no one posted it?
  10. Awesome analysis so far on here today! Sheesh the FV3 appears to me a big hit! Wasn’t it supposed to overtake the GFS a while ago? If not can someone fill me in on when that take over will commence? It has performed very poorly in our neck of the woods.
  11. I don’t believe the 12z OP euro snowfall output was posted.
  12. 4.3” in a valley location (738’) just south of Scranton, PA!
  13. Wow FV3! This is a big test for it. If the 18z gfs showed what the FV3 showed this forum would be going nuts.
  14. Look at the run to run shifts people! Hell the GFS doesn’t even have a storm!
  15. I’m sorry, desperation? I live north of Scranton so im not to desperate for this storm. It was just a simple observation.
  16. HRRR at 18z was considerably colder than other modeling. I know it’s “long Range” for the HRRR but it’ll be interesting to see how HRRR handles this moving forward..
  17. NAM seems weaker for sure so far. Not sure where this leads downstream but this could be a sign of more advanced sampling as 18z gfs hinted at a slightly weaker vort.
  18. Can you post a new link? This one seems to not be working
  19. Euro ensemble mean stayed the course from 12z, it might have even ticked southeast a tad. This is also displayed via the mean snowfall output.
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