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uncle w

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  1. I remember the last week of school and the first days of summer vacation being hot in the 1960's...After a cool June max of 89 in 1960 the next nine years had some of the hottest temperatures of the year...the average June max for the 1960's was 95.5...highest for any June decade...94.2 in the 1950's was second... 1961 had a 96 degree day on 6/13 and 93 on 6/30... 1962 had a four day heat wave from the 16th-19th...max of 93... 1963 had a five day heat wave from the 25th-29th...max of 96...98 on 7/1...hottest of the year... 1964 had a max of 94 on 6/27...99 on 6/30 and 7/1...hottest of the year... 1965 had its hottest temp of the year on 6/28...95 degrees... 1966 saw 94 degrees on 6/23...101 on 6/27...94 on 6/30... 1967 saw the hottest temp of the year when it hit 96 on 6/16...90 on 6/25... 1968 had a 94 degree day on 6/30...97 on 7/1... 1969 had a 96 degree day on 6/28...
  2. the nao is in a positive cycle that has gone on for years especially in January...since 1950 there have been 43 positive nao January's compared to 27 negative ones...the last decade to average negative was the 1970's... January ave nao since 1950... decade....ave nao…# neg...pos.......high...low... 1950's...….+0.021.....4...….6.....+1.05...-1.84 1960's...…..-0.679.....7...….3.....+0.61...-2.12 1970's...…..-0.241.....5...….5.....+1.34...-1.50 1980's...….+0.252.....4...….6.....+1.66...-1.61 1990's...….+0.589.....3...….7.....+1.60...-0.49 2000's...….+0.505.....2...….8.....+1.52...-0.29 2010's...….+0.424.....2...….8.....+1.79...-1.11
  3. there were 10 straight 90 degrees or higher days from 7/7-16/1993...three straight 100 degree days were in that period...it also has the hottest week in NYC weather history... Hottest seven day period... high low mean max .. 98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993 98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977 98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953 95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896 95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011 94.6 79.0 86.8 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013 95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988 96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944 96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955 95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001 94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980 97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991 95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973 94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981 94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010 95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955
  4. there were four double el nino years the second years were 1958, 1977, 1987, 2015...if this el nino we are in continues 2019 will become the fifth time an el nino lasted two years...this is how the temperatures looked for those summers...
  5. June's longest heat waves...most total 90 degree days...NYC... 6/24-28/1880... max...min... 93......66 94......77 91......77 92......73 94......76 ………………... 6/26-30/1901 91......72 91......74 93......75 95......76 95......60 ………………………. 6/3-7/1925 94......68 99......76 99......78 98......77 96......63 ……………………. 6/14-18/1945 92......68 93......76 93......71 93......74 92......71 ………………. 6/15-19/1957 93......69 95......76 96......77 93......76 92......73 ………………….. 6/24-28/1963 90......65 95......68 96......69 95......72 94......73 ………………….. 6/7-11/1984 92......72 94......77 96......77 95......79 94......78 …………………. 6/12-16/1988 90......61 93......69 96......71 96......74 92......69 ……………….. most 90 degree ays... 11 in 1943 10 in 1966 09 in 1925 09 in 1991 08 in 1923 08 in 1945 08 in 1953 08 in 1988 07 in 1899 07 in 1941 07 in 1945 07 in 1964 07 in 1994
  6. 20 neg nao Junes since 1988...8 neg nao Feb... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  7. since 1988 there have been seven negative nao Januarys...19 nao Mays...
  8. I was looking at analogs that were a second el nino year...1958, 1977, 1987, 2015...July was the hottest month while June and August were closer to average...many hot summers started the last week in June...
  9. monthly 90 degrees days...... Season.....Apr May June.July.Aug Sept Oct..total 1869.........0.......0......0......1......2......0......0........3 1870.........0.......0......4......7......2......0......0......13 1871.........0.......1......2......1......0......0......0........4 1872.........0.......0......5......8......7......1......0......21 1873.........0.......0......3......6......1......0......0......10 1874.........0.......1......4......3......2......1......0......11 1875.........0.......0......4......0......0......0......0........4 1876.........0.......0......4....11......3......0......0......18 1877.........0.......0......0......1......1......0......0........2 1878.........0.......0......0......9......1......1......0......11 1879.........0.......0......3......5......2......0......0......10 1880.........0.......3......5......2......0......0......0......10 1881.........0.......2......0......1......5......3......0......11 1882.........0.......0......1......6......1......0......0........8 1883.........0.......0......2......5......0......0......0........7 1884.........0.......0......2......1......1......3......0........7 1885.........0.......0......1....10......1......0......0......12 1886.........0.......0......0......6......1......0......0........7 1887.........0.......0......1....10......0......0......0......11 1888.........0.......0......4......0......2......0......0........6 1889.........0.......1......1......0......0......0......0........3 1890.........0.......0......1......6......2......0......0........9 1891.........0.......0......5......1......4......1......0......11 1892.........0.......0......4......8......1......0......0......13 1893.........0.......0......4......4......4......0......0......12 1894.........0.......0......3......7......0......1......0......11 1895.........0.......3......3......4......6......7......0......23 1896.........1.......3......2......8....10......0......0......24 1897.........0.......0......0......5......0......3......0........8 1898.........0.......0......2......9......4......6......0......21 1899.........0.......0......7......5......4......0......0......16 1900.........0.......1......2......8......9......1......0......21 1901.........0.......0......5....10......1......0......0......16 1902.........0.......0......0......1......0......0......0........1 1903.........0.......0......0......6......0......0......0........6 1904.........0.......0......3......5......0......0......0........8 1905.........0.......0......1......7......3......0......0......11 1906.........0.......1......4......2......2......1......0......10 1907.........0.......0......2......3......2......0......0........7 1908.........0.......0......1......7......4......0......0......23 1909..........0.......0......4......2......4......0......0......10 1910..........0.......0......2......4......0......1......0........7 1911..........0.......0......0....10......5......0......0......15 1912..........0.......0......2......5......3......1......0......11 1913..........0.......0......2......6......4......0......0......12 1914...…...0...….2......2......4......3......5......0......16 1915...…...2...….0......1......4......0......5......0......12 1916...…...0...….0......0......5......6......1......0......12 1917...…...0...….0......0......4......2......0......0...…..6 1918...…...0...….2......2......5......8......0......0......15 1919...…...0...….1......3......7......1......2......0......14 1920...…...0...….0......2......4......2......0......0...…..8 1921...…...0...….0......4......8......1......2......0......15 1922...…...0...….0......3......3......3......1......0......10 1923...…...0...….0......8......3......3......0......0......14 1924...…...0...….0......1......3......7......2......0......13 1925...…...0...….0......9......4......3......0......0......16 1926...…...0...….0......0......5......5......0......0......10 1927...…...1...….0......0......6......0......1......1...…..9 1928...…...0...….0......0......5......8......0......0......13 1929...…...0...….1......5......9......2......4......0......21 1930...…...0...….3......5......5......4......0......0......18 1931...…...0...….3......4......5......5......5......0......22 1932...…...0...….1......3......7......3......1......0......15 1933...…...0...….1......5....10......4......1......0......21 1934...…...0...….1......3....11......0......0......0......15 1935...…...0...….0......0......6......4......0......0......10 1936...…...0...….4......1....10....10......1......0......26 1937...…...0...….1......2......8......7......4......0......22 1938...…...0...….0......2......3......9......0......1......15 1939...…...0...….4......3......4....11......0......1......23 1940...…...0...….0...…3....12......1......1......0......17 1941...…...0...….3...…7......6......6......5......2......29 1942..........1.......1.......0......3......3......4......0......12 1943..........0.......0.....11......8......7......2......0......28 1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3...…0......37....................... 1945..........0.......0.......8......2......6......2...…0.....18 1946..........0.......0.......4......4......0......1...…0.......9 1947..........0.......0.......1......1......7......0...…0.......9 1948..........0.......0.......2......6......5......0...…0.....13 1949..........0.......2.......7....13......7......0...…0.....29 1950..........0.......0.......4......2......0......0.......0......6.......... 1951..........0.......1.......0......5......1......0.......0......7......... 1952..........0.......0.......6....14......1......3.......0.....24........ 1953..........0.......1.......8....11......8......4.......0.....32........ 1954..........0.......0.......3....12......2......0.......0.....17........ 1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.......0.....25........ 1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.......0.....11........ 1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.......0.....21........ 1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0.......0.......6......... 1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.......0.....27........ 1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1.......0.......5.......... 1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.......0.....29........ 1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.......0.....18........ 1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.......0.....16........ 1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.......0.....23........ 1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.......0.....15....... 1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.......0.....35........ 1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0.......0.......9......... 1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.......0.....17....... 1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.......0.....16......... 1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.......0.....22........ 1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.......0.....18........ 1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.......0.....15......... 1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.......0.....18........ 1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.......0.....17........ 1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0.......0.......8......... 1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.......0.....15........ 1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.......0.....23........ 1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.......0.....11........ 1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.......0.....18........ 1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.......0.....32........ 1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.......0.....16........ 1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.......0.....11........ 1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.......0.....36....... 1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.......0.....10....... 1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3.......0......9........ 1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.......0.....11....... 1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.......0.....22....... 1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.......0.....32....... 1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.......0.....16....... 1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.......0.....12....... 1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.......0.....39....... 1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0.......0......9........ 1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.......0.....39....... 1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.......0.....19....... 1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.......0.....29....... 1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0.......0......3........ 1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.......0.....12....... 1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1.......0......8........ 1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.......0.....27....... 2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0.......0......7........ 2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.......0.....15....... 2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.......0.....32....... 2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0.......0......8........ 2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0.......0......2........ 2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.......0.....23....... 2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0.......0......8........ 2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.......0.....10....... 2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.......0.....12....... 2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0.......0.......7........ 2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.......0.....37........ 2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.......0.....20........ 2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.......0.....19........ 2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.......0.....17........ 2014..........0.......0.......0......3......3......2.......0......8........ 2015..........0.......0.......1......5......8......6.......0.....20........ 2016..........0.......2.......0....10......7......3.......0.....22...... 2017..........0.......3.......3......5......1......1.......0.....13.. 2018..........0.......2.......3......6......7......3.......0.....21
  10. the 2010's should end up the warmest Summer decade on record...it needs 25 90 degree days to match the 1940's 202 total...it should end up as the second wettest decade...June could end up with the warmest decade for the 2010's...no 40's in the 2010's decade so far...no decade had less than 49...the 2010's should end up with the warmest July decade...the 2010's have the highest minimum average and close to the highest max average...no 50's for July in this decade...it would be the first without any if 2019 has none... Summer months...June/July/Aug... Three month period from 6/1 - 8/31 decade...ave temp/precip...90+days100+ 1870's.....73.2.....13.75".....101.....0..... 1880's.....72.4.....11.88".......81.....1..... 1890's.....73.3.....11.18".....138.....1..... 1900's.....73.3.....12.87".....101.....2..... 1910's.....72.7.....11.58".....115.....3..... 1920's.....72.6.....12.98".....128.....2..... 1930's.....74.6.....12.40".....189.....8..... 1940's.....74.2.....11.86".....202.....8..... 1950's.....74.4.......9.86".....175...12..... 1960's.....74.2.....10.54".....181.....4..... 1970's.....74.6.....12.61".....183.....3..... 1980's.....75.0.....13.03".....195.....2..... 1990's.....75.0.....11.90".....197.....8..... 2000's.....74.3.....15.66".....123.....1..... 2010's.....75.8.....14.04".....177.....5.....2010-18 1870- 2009 ave 73.8.....12.29".....149.....4..... 1980- 2009 ave 74.8.....13.53".....172.....4..... ............................................................................... June....ave temp..max..min..ave max/min 1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na 1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.5 1890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.4 1900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.7 1910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.1 1920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.0 1930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.4 1940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.1 1950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.9 1960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.7 1970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.0 1980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.6 1990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.6 2000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.5 2010's.....72.2.......95.....50.....92.0.....52.9...2010-18 1870/1880- 2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.1 1980- 2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6 July........................................................ 1870's.....75.7.......na.....na.....na.....na 1880's.....74.6.......99.....54.....92.6.....59.2 1890's.....74.7.....100.....55.....95.1.....58.1 1900's.....76.1.....100.....56.....94.4.....60.0 1910's.....75.4.....100.....56.....96.1.....59.2 1920's.....74.7.....100.....54.....94.7.....57.5 1930's.....76.7.....106.....54.....97.9.....59.2 1940's.....76.7.....102.....52.....96.0.....58.6 1950's.....77.1.....101.....57.....96.3.....60.5 1960's.....76.0.....103.....54.....96.1.....59.3 1970's.....76.8.....104.....53.....95.0.....58.7 1980's.....77.4.....102.....53.....96.5.....59.2 1990's.....77.5.....102.....57.....97.1.....61.1 2000's.....75.6.......97.....56.....92.6.....60.5 2010's.....78.7.....104.....61.....97.6.....62.6.....2010-18 1870/1880- 2009 ave 76.1.....106.....52.....95.4.....59.3 1980- 2009 ave 76.8.....102.....53.....95.4.....60.3  August.......................................................... 1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na 1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2 1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9 1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1 1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8 1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3 1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5 1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4 1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9 1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2 1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1 1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2 1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4 2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0 2010's.....76.5.......96.....59.....93.1.....61.1...2010-18 1870/1880- 2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.2 1980- 2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9 Hottest................Coolest...........Wettest.............Driest 77.8 in 2010.....69.3 in 1903.....25.23" in 2011.....4.31" in 1966 77.3 in 1966.....69.9 in 1927.....22.75" in 1975.....4.36" in 1894 77.1 in 2005.....70.5 in 1902.....22.36" in 1989.....4.58" in 1929 76.9 in 1993.....70.9 in 1881.....21.39" in 2009.....4.97" in 1999 76.9 in 1983.....71.0 in 1886.....20.79" in 2006.....5.33" in 1965 76.9 in 1949.....71.2 in 1915.....20.64" in 2007.....6.19" in 1957 76.8 in 2016.....71.3 in 1869.....20.50" in 1928.....6.87" in 1882 76.7 in 1999.....71.4 in 1889.....20.43" in 1903.....6.88" in 1912 76.6 in 1980.....71.4 in 1888.....20.01" in 1927.....6.93" in 1970 76.6 in 1988.....71.4 in 1874.....19.88" in 2003.....7.01" in 1923 76.5 in 1944 76.5 in 1955 ..................................................................... JUNE warmest average temperature and year. 76.2 1943 75.4 1966 75.2 1994 74.6 2010 74.5 1984 74.3 1925 74.3 1949 74.3 1957 74.2 1971 74.1 1991 74.1 1899 coolest 64.2 1903 65.2 1881 65.7 1916 66.8 1926 66.8 1902 67.2 1958 67.3 1927 67.4 1928 67.5 2009 67.5 1897  wettest June and year 10.27 2003 10.10 2013 10.06 2009 9.78 1903 9.30 1972 8.79 1989 8.55 2006 7.76 1887 7.58 1975 7.13 1938 7.05 1871 7.04 1928 6.88 1922  driest 0.02 1949 0.59 1999 0.98 1894 1.00 1901 1.14 1880 1.17 1966 1.25 1898 1.26 1906 1.27 1965 1.27 1908  warmest max. temperature and year 101 1966 101 1934 100 1952 99 1925 99 1943 99 1956 99 1964 Coolest max. temperature and year 81 1903 84 2009 84 1886 84 1916 85 1985 86 1928 86 1972 coolest min. temperature and year 44 1945...6/1 45 1929...6/3 46 1972...6/11 47 1938...6/1 47 1946...6/3 47 1945...6/6 47 1945...6/5 47 1879...6/7 47 1915...6/3 47 1932...6/8 47 1980...6/9 warmest min. temp. and year. 58 1892 58 1911 58 1952 58 1981 58 1989 ..................................................................................
  11. there have been four years that had consecutive el ninos...1957-58, 1958-59.....1976-77, 1977-78...1986-87, 1987-88....2014-15, 2015-16...the el nino we are in now is forecast to stay the course for now...the four second year el nino summers had a hot July but June and August were close to normal...I think what we have been getting is what we will get this Summer with some nice days between countless rainy days...July should be the hottest month this time...TWT...
  12. on this date in 1963 Mickey Mantle hit a walk off home run that was the hardest ball he ever hit...As a mantle fan I was in my glory...The next day NYC set a record low temperature and the next day also...the 39 degrees on 5/24 is the latest 39 on record...record lows and Mantle home runs were the norm back then...
  13. I was thinking this month for the northward shift...just guessing...I remember this day in 1962 going to baseball practice with the temp 99 degrees...this came after a cold start to the month...
  14. another day another shower...the ring of fire is still near us but if it moves north we will fry...
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