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uncle w

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uncle w last won the day on June 12 2018

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About uncle w

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  • Birthday 03/28/1949

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  1. March 6th has 15 storms 2" or more in NYC since 1869 and more over 1"... March 22nd is the last date for multiple 5" snowstorms... best March ten day periods for NYC...1960 was the best of the lot...1956 was second and 1967 third...1993 and 1958 round out my top five... March 1956...1958...1960...1967...1978...1984...1992...1993...1996...2005...2015...2017...2018 1956.............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6" 17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3" 18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7" 19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13" 20.........38...23......0........0...13" 21.........48...28......0........0.....8" 22.........50...31......0........0.....6" 23.........48...36......0........0.....1" 24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1" 25.........34...18......0........0.....1" 1958............................................... 13.........46...34......T........T.....0 14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4" 15.........41...35......T........T.....2" 16.........43...35......0........0.....1" 17.........45...34......0........0.....T 18.........42...35......T........T......0 19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0 20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5" 21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11" 22.........45...34......T........T...10" 1960.................................................. 01.........32...21......0........0.....0 02.........36...19......0........0.....0 03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12" 04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15" 05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14" 06.........36...20......0........0....12" 07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8" 08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5" 09.........34...17......0........0.....3" 10.........30...17......0........0.....2" 1967........................................................... 15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2" 16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2" 17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3" 18.........20...10......0........0.....3" 19.........28.....8......0........0.....2" 20.........40...23......0........0.....1" 21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1" 22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9" 23.........35...28......T........T.....6" 24.........44...30......0........0.....3" 1978.......................................................................... 01.........32...25......0........0.....3" 02.........32...19......0........0.....3" 03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8" 04.........30...19......0........0.....6" 05.........28...14......0........0.....4" 06.........33...18......0........0.....3" 07.........37...20......0........0.....3" 08.........30...22......T........T.....3" 09.........43...29......T........T.....3" 10.........43...36......0........0.....2" 1984............................................................................. 04.........40...24......0........0.....0 05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0 06.........44...37......0........0.....0 07.........40...24......0........0.....0 08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2" 09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7" 10.........30...13......0........0.....5" 11.........40...19......T........T.....3" 12.........30...16......0........0.....1" 13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1" 1992......................................................................... 14.........40...24......0........0.....0 15.........35...22......0........0.....0 16.........37...17......0........0.....0 17.........50...29......T........T.....0 18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0 19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3" 20.........45...30......0........0.....6" 21.........39...28......0........0.....T 22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T 23.........38...29......T........T.....3" 1993............................................................................... 10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0 11.........41...30......0........0.....0 12.........42...29......0........0.....0 13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2" 14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8" 15.........33...14......0........0.....7" 16.........45...26......0........0.....4" 17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2" 18.........29...13......T........T.....2" 19.........33...16......0........0.....2" 1996........................................................................... 01.........34...22......0........0.....0 02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4" 03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2" 04.........35...19......0........0.....1" 05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0 06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0 07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0 08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4" 09.........24...11......0........0.....3" 10.........33...16......0........0.....2" 2005................................................... 01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9" 02.........39...28......T........T.....6" 03.........33...23......0........0.....5" 04.........36...23......0........0.....4" 05.........42...27......0........0.....4" 06.........48...31......0........0.....3" 07.........63...43......0........0.....2" 08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1" 09.........31...16......0........0.....1" 10.........34...21......0........0.....T .......................................................................... 2015.............................................. 01.........31...24...0.52"...4.8"...15" 02.........39...27......0........0......14" 03.........37...22...0.67"...1.8"...13" 04.........45...35...0.25".....0.....13" 05.........40...19...0.76"...7.5"...19" 06.........27...12......0........0.....19" 07.........38...18......0........0.....18" 08.........49...37......0........0.....16" 09.........54...40...0.01".....0.....13" 10.........53...39...0.46".....0.....11" ................................................................... 2017 10.........47...23...0.31"...2.1".....2" 11.........29...17......0........0........1" 12.........29...19......0........0........T 13.........36...20......T........T........T 14.........32...21...1.97"...7.6".....7" 15.........26...20......0........0........6" 16.........39...24......0........0........5" 17.........47...29......0........0........4" 18.........39...34...0.08".....T........3" 19.........47...34......0........0........3" ……………………………………………. 2018 13...…..40...33...0.28".....T...….0 14...…..41...31...0.01".....T...….0 15...…..48...32.....0...…...0...….0 16...…..40...30.....0...…...0...….0 17...…..48...27.....0...…...0...….0 18...…..43...28.....0...…...0...….0 19...…..47...33.....0...…...0...….0 20...…..39...30.....T...…...0...….0 21...…..39...31...0.99"...8.2"......8" 22...…..50...32...0.06"...0.2"......1"
  2. closing in on 2" imby...light misty snow now...
  3. Feb. 1993 had a storm similar to todays but it over achieved when the change over came later than expected...
  4. uncle w

    Southwest Flow Event Potential 2-17/2-18

    34 and light rain last I checked...
  5. the QBO was plus 9.02 in January...I was hoping for a plus 3-4 like 1964...I'm not sure if it played any role this year bad or good...here are some other years with a similar January QBO or higher...3 of the 4 the el nino winters had a storm 10" or more...two were 18" or more... 2018-19.....9.02 2016-17...14.92 2015-16.....9.34 2013-14...13.13 2010-11.....9.18 2008-09...10.71 1994-95.....8.38 1992-93.....9.63 1990-91.....8.71 1987-88.....7.81 1985-86.....8.74 1982-83...10.85 1980-81.....8.51 1975-76.....9.22 1971-72.....8.20
  6. if I had to pick a winter that is similar to this year it would be 1936-37...A weak el nino year that had a snowstorm in November and separate cold wave...it did have a snowstorm in January that year...this year the snow missed to the south...NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the winter...not the great winter I was expecting...I'm still holding out hope for one or two wet snowstorms before it's over...
  7. we have seen nice looks all winter...KU's become PU's as the event gets closer...
  8. had a period of snow that is now something else again... 30 degrees...
  9. 29 degrees now with about 1/2 inch of snow and sleet...
  10. the way this winter is going I'd put a decimal between the numbers especially up here...nice to look at though...if this were two days away I'd be at the supermarket...
  11. the theme of the winter so far is snow missing to the south and the next storm is inland...I had a bad feeling back in December when the first storm tracked south of the area...I never give up but it's getting late...
  12. the numbers are for the day of the storm...2016 had an ao at -4.8sd a week before and the nao was negative also...the numbers don't tell all the story but it's a place to begin with...
  13. I made this chart ten years ago and added to it...the enso change a bit when they re configured it...1967 was a weak la nina but now it's a neutral negative...2006 is now a weak la nina... snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI.... 12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina 12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino 14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral- 15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral- 15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral- 10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral- 18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral- 13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino 15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina 10" 03/21/1967....2.537...-0.387......1.142.....Weak La Nina 15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino 14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino 18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino 13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+ 10" 04/06/1982....0.172...-0.799.....-0.982.....Neutral- 18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino 10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino 09" 02/08/1994....0.296...-0.454.....-0.483.....Neutral+ 13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+ 11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino 20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina 11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina 12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina 20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino 14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+ 10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+ 14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino 27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral- 11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino 10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino 21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino 20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina 19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina 11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral- 11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral- 10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral- 10" 01/26/2015....1.661....0.311......1.075.....El Nino 27" 01/23/2016...-0.085....1.687......0.082.....El Nino 09" 02/09/2017...-1.769....0.690......1.070.....La Nina 10" 01/04/2018...-1.506....0.872......0.725.....La Nina
  14. late season snowfalls indices... snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI.... 12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina 12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino 15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral- 10" 03/21/1967....2.537...-0.387......1.142.....Weak La Nina 13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+ 10" 04/06/1982....0.172...-0.799.....-0.982.....Neutral- 10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino 21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino
  15. maybe we'll get lucky in March...but for now I'll believe it when I'm shoveling it...
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