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uncle w

Master Wx Expert
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uncle w last won the day on June 12

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About uncle w

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    Statistics Sage
  • Birthday 03/28/1949

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    staten Island

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  1. 2002 and 2009 had a negative QBO heading into the winter...it looks like 2018 will be heading into winter with a positive QBO...I like the sound of 2002 and 2009 but will the QBO derail or enhance this winter...
  2. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    as of now I'm on board for a good December...after that if the pattern holds the end of January or February could have a major snowstorm...
  3. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    today's AO/NAO forecast is for both to go negative...the nao has been positive since March I believe...if they both go very negative it means a fast start to winter as long as it keeps repeating...
  4. uncle w

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    I hope this pattern has staying power until at least the end of December...or at least comes back in December...
  5. latest MEI number was +0.506...big rise from lasts months value... using the MEI scale there were five years when the MEI peaked in the Dec/Jan period...All very good mid Atlantic and or north east winters...most models have the el nino peak during the winter and having the MEI peak in the Dec/Jan period has been good in the past...1978-79 and 1993-94 were not el nino years but weak positive mei years peaking in DEC/JAN... season..........D/J mei.....DJF oni 1957-58......+1.474.......+1.8 2002-03......+1.180.......+1.1 1963-64......+0.856.......+1.1 1978-79......+0.598........-0.1 1993-94......+0.334.......+0.1
  6. last year the QBO was similar to 1963...by January 64 it was a plus 3.94...the last QBO number was -9.91...up from -20.41...the following table are plus QBO winters that followed a minus QBO winter...reds are el nino years...looking at this chart a weak positive QBO would be very good...1957-58, 1963-64 and 1977-78 were all great winters... 1957-58....+5.25 1963-64....+3.94 1966-67....+11.03 1971-72....+8.20 1975-76....+9.22 1977-78....+3.21 1980-81....+8.51 1982-83....+10.85 1987-88....+7.81 1992-93....+9.63 1994-95....+8.32 2001-02....+4.64 2008-09....+10.71 2010-11....+9.18 2015-16....+9.34
  7. uncle w

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    since 1960 there were 16 cold Octobers...14 warm...the rest in the middle...the cold and warm Octobers had three great winters... warm good.....bad..... 1995-96..........2007-08 2013-14..........1985-86 2014-15..........1975-76 1963-64 2017-18 cold......................... 1966-67..........1972-73 1977-78..........1974-75 2009-10..........1988-89 2002-03.......... 2003-04
  8. uncle w

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    NYC's earliest snowfall...10/15/1876 1876... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1876-10-16/ed-1/seq-1/ later on in January... 1877...snowstorm... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60725875 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1877-01-03/ed-1/seq-6/
  9. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    going into winter I want to see at least one big storm...last year we had two on Staten Island...many winters were duds except for one big storm...2015-16 was the last one like that...2005-06, 1982-83 come to mind also...without a big storm or deep snow cover the winter is a failure...just my opinion...
  10. uncle w

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    if I saw this guy in the street I wouldn't recognize him unless his head was tilted...
  11. uncle w

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    the years that NYC got 30" or more since 1955 had just as many warm/cold/normal Octobers...recently the Octobers were warm or near normal...2009 was cold...
  12. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    thanks...this would have been a miller A...
  13. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    was Juno a storm that came from the Gulf?...I'm thinking more like March 1993 only tracking like Michael...
  14. uncle w

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    there have been some great winters with a cold October...2009, 2002, 1977...
  15. uncle w

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    I know 9-10" storms grow on trees these days but sooner or later the leaves will fall...and so will snow totals...not this year though...our climate has seen many storms like this over the years...at the time with a very positive AO I thought the prediction of 3ft for the city was a joke and not happening...
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