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uncle w

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uncle w last won the day on September 17 2019

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About uncle w

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    Statistics Sage
  • Birthday 03/28/1949

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  1. I don't like the way it circles into the COD instead of going into one and two...But I'll take what is shown...
  2. looking at the ao forecast made my head spin...I've seen disparities in members but this is one of the worse I've seen...the nao forecast is more uniform but one member doesn't agree...could that be the right signal?...
  3. it beats 1972-73...NYC has yet to beat that year so far...
  4. todays ao/nao forecast has many members going negative before the month ends...pna is also getting better at the same time...is this the beginning of a more favorable pattern shift or is it a temporary window of opportunity?...
  5. gets better in February otherwise another indices added to the cluster...todays ao/nao forecast isn't great...better than yesterday but that's not saying much...
  6. the ao/nao forecast was back to reality with a positive forecast going forward...we will continue with no blocking to speak of going into February...using a football analogy its very hard to score a touchdown without blocking up front...It can be done but not very often...A touchdown in weather would be a major snowstorm...without a negative ao and nao it could happen but not to often...Feb 1993 had no blocking until the second week off and on...the second half of the month saw some sustained blocking...
  7. 1993 keeps showing up and we can only hope this winter has a second half as good as 1993 had...
  8. the mjo is spending more time in warm phases than cold ones...I'd like to see it really deep into phases 7-8-1...these near circle cold phases don't faze me...
  9. what,,,Feb 78 wasn't available?...the snow maps look great but they are right as many times as a stopped clock...
  10. todays ao/nao forecasts are encouraging...the ao is near record positive levels now and the nao is quite positive too...both are forecast to drop to near neutral and some members go negative which hasn't been seen in the forecast for a while...right now are getting an indices cluster muck...it has to get better eventually...
  11. if the system comes faster than expected snow totals will be higher than if it slows down...that could mean hardly any snow at all for us...February 1993 had a few systems like this if my memory is correct...it starts as snow but ends as rain eventually...
  12. meh...I'm not excited yet...I guess a little snow to rain is better than 70 degrees and sunny...or is it?...
  13. todays ao is over plus 4sd and might drop to near neutral around the 20th...same for the nao...that could be a window how ever small for a snowstorm...I thought 1936-37 was a good analog for last year but it might turn out better for this year...January 1936 was a torch...February less of a torch...March was cold..snowfall was light...1936 had a 6" snowfall between warmth on January 20th...
  14. 1975, 1983, 2017 and 2018 had snowstorms 8" or more in February or March...1975 had 10.6" from the 5th to 13th...1983 had 21.5" from the 5th to the 12th...2017 had 9.4" on 2/9...2018 had 11.6" in March and more in April...
  15. here I sit in the hearth of winter and I have more interest in building an n gauge train set for my grand kids and me the oldest kid than tracking fantasy cold and snow...If we get cold and snowy it won't be because of the nao or ao until at least the end of this month...
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