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NotSparta

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About NotSparta

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  • Birthday 09/18/2001

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    Naples, FL

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  1. Thanks so much! Can't wait to get the actual page up and running, then they'll be shareable
  2. I'm by no means an expert, and I know also that this is very long range, but it seems given 10mb height forecast on the GFS there's going to be a bit of pressure on the SPV w/ a ridge surrounding it, and high U1060 despite relatively high heights for the winds
  3. I noticed a lot of that in 2017-18, whenever it was cold it was also bone dry, and the vast majority of snow outside of Grayson came when the NAO went negative. Again, we shall see there. I believe the later part of the season may be a bit more active as the -QBO descends
  4. I wouldn't be surprised if the IOD were influencing things, given it's now near record highs. It won't directly cause uplift in the Pacific that tends to lead to the more wintry wx, but given that it is obvious the feature is atmospherically coupled (nearly stationary easterly winds), it is probably tipping the scales that way thru the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. The IOD has caused there to be persistent large scale llvl divergence there, which keeps sinking air over that region and staved off any kind of -ENSO by suppressing EWBs, as well as projecting warm water onto the dateline region. Given there is a new downwelling KW, it's likely that ENSO will lean warm this winter, but likely not a full El Niño type setup since it's getting too late for that. As for some of the teleconnections, -EPO seems pretty likely given the very warm water near Alaska will tend to promote ridging up there. NAO is harder to tell, there isn't as much of a blob of warm water near Greenland, and it has been persistently neutral or positive the past 5 winters, so it's kind of up in the air at this point especially given how it's been -ve a lot in 2019. If one occurs, it may be the fly in the ointment for snow given that, at least in my experience, +NAO/-EPO (& +PNA) tends to mean a dry cold. Anyway, those are just some random disorganized thoughts from me, and there's a pretty good chance I'm wrong, haha
  5. Kind of random question - were the winter storm floaters from last winter a good idea? Thinking about doing that again
  6. I know this topic is more for the NE US, but it's currently around 80 in my neck of the woods. Weird to not be getting cold fronts in November
  7. QBO was -ve/neutral then. Not that I agree w/ his statement though
  8. Early March, was there snow near the end of the month last yr?
  9. Just don't look for accumulations, the sun angle will be in September territory soon
  10. Man, I'm so tired of the cold. Luckily I'm headed to Florida, but I hope spring arrives before I get back
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