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AllanWeather NYC

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About AllanWeather NYC

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  • Birthday June 24

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    Brooklyn, NY

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  1. AllanWeather NYC

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Here's my first call. If we've learned something this winter, it's to be safe. I'll adjust up if I need to tomorrow.
  2. Here essentially are my thoughts. Tried to jam-pack the situation as clearly as possible. Either way, heaviest snows likely N&W of I-95 (again). Could be some good front-end snow though, unlike previous times.
  3. AllanWeather NYC

    [Eastern US] 1/29 - 1/30 Snow Event + Squall Line

    Still rain, despite snow returns on radar, in Brooklyn.
  4. AllanWeather NYC

    [Eastern US] 1/29 - 1/30 Snow Event + Squall Line

    Now a moderate rain in Brooklyn...finally precip falling. Wondering if the temps will fall as fast as the precip moved in...
  5. AllanWeather NYC

    [Eastern US] 1/29 - 1/30 Snow Event + Squall Line

    Brooklyn seeing NOTHING...a couple drops about 30min ago, but still dry right now!! And upper 30s to boot...
  6. AllanWeather NYC

    [Eastern US] 1/29 - 1/30 Snow Event + Squall Line

    This actually looks exciting...(tells ya what kind of winter NYC has thus far) Seeing some really juicy CAPE values, and models only intensify the line en-route to NYC/Jersey Shore/Long Island. Will that happen verbatim? I don't know. But a quick C-2" with some blinding snow can't be ruled out!
  7. AllanWeather NYC

    [Eastern US] 1/29 - 1/30 Snow Event + Squall Line

    Here's my second call... https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1089990370153455616 I'm honestly a bit concerned no secondary reinforcement and such cold air will dry up totals, so the max may not be 4-6 (iso 8) but like a 3-5. NYC again may get screwed (i.e. me).
  8. Here's my analysis of my forecasts, and the actual snowfall reports (smoothed NOHRSC data). The shift NW was clear. (P.S. SE Bias?)
  9. Here we go...after over four hours of tweaking...here are my latest thoughts: I honestly could see a widespread sleet-storm...NAM's thermals look a bit better overall. NYC will be SOOO intriguing!
  10. What does the GFS stand for again?! BTW, if looking at the NAM 3km...wet bulb temps remain 32/33 around NYC. 850-tongue not-as-pronounced (about 2-4 C around NYC). Some positive signs mixed in with the negative signs (already discussed before) so far today.
  11. IBM more-or-less same as 18z. Less precip overall, but the same axis and heaviest zone of snow. (Does not include sleet) Remains frozen from Manhattan on N&W.
  12. Those NE outliers are outliers-no-more!
  13. Overall nice shifts in the 0z data thus far...now let's keep it going the same direction! I'll probably tweak these numbers tomorrow...but I like where they are at right now. And as for snowfall, I like this as a first-call. Would move the sleet/frz potential a bit further NE to encompass most of CT, and leave behind only the Lehigh Valley and in-between 287/84. Let's see what happens with the Euro and beyond!
  14. Woof. RPM again remains sleet/ice for 6-8 hours in NYC and along the I-95. About 8-10 hours of snow preceding that yields about 8-10" in NYC in this RPM run. Bare in mind the amplified/cold bias.
  15. Never mind (by Hr 48)
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