Tony F

0z HREF 24 hour ensemble mean snowfall, main precip axis looks a lot like the HRRR

Mean winds up being 3" for KNYC

To my eye looks to be around 4” in your area

I'm about 2 miles east of Trenton and its a 50/50 mix of sleet and snow here currently, all frozen precip.

Same here (Hamilton, Mercer County), quite odd, was sleet for the entire morning essentially especially under the heavier echos and now under the lighter echos we are a light fine snow with some sleet mixed in, but probably 80% snow.

The blocking is extremely impressive from D10 on and improves as you go forward which is striking considering it's a smoothed out mean. The mean snowfall from D11-D15, just in that time period is about 4" (per Weathermodels maps) which is also mighty impressive this far out. All very encouraging signs without a doubt.

We are still losing quite a bit of QPF to rain..

Yet the 18z GEFS have a relatively snowy solution with 6”+ means widespread.. I think the message here is that the pattern is chaotic perhaps quite a bit more so then usual right now. It’ll be interesting to see how things evolve over the next week.

FV3 appears to look good (hard to tell on the NCEP site, may be a bit warm). Will be interesting to see what it looks like on Tidbits.

Give this a shot: https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/snow/snowfall.php

Yes, however, weather.us which is the non-pay version of what I posted can be used to give you granular information on NYC: https://weather.us/model-charts/rapid-us/2019012018/f6ee4af0a4998140654f05b0b4b5db00/temperature-f/20190121-1300z.html

Coldest frame I could find on that run:

6z eps shows a ton of spread and to my count about 20% of the members are south.

There definitely is a camp south (whether this represents a second low or overall a more southerly evolution is difficult to ascertain). However as noted, a majority of the members are amped/warm.