earthlight

And he should, because his tweets are irresponsible and offer no value. There’s no forecasting involved in what he does - just armchair commentary and ragging on meteorologists who actually do try to forecast. You want to do that, fine. But don’t spread misinformation about a Category 1 impact when you have no idea what you are talking about. Stuff like that is as bad if not if not worse than the people who hype up storms. Anyway...

As discussed yesterday it was fairly obvious that there was a window for this type of strengthening to occur amid favorable synoptic conditions. Unfortunately it appears that it is happening. A nightmare.

Great work in here gentlemen, @Armando S and @brooklynwx99. In general alignment with much of what has already been discussed, and while attempting to not reveal too much about the winter forecast thus far, I have reached very similar conclusions. The analog set this year is a bit fickle as there is only a small subset of years that fit the general conditions. Going back further to the 36 month time frame, the analog set thins even further - which is somewhat expected, but still, the subset is quite small. Anyway, confidence continues to rise in the overall progression of major hemispheric features. Oddly enough, the biggest uncertainty in my mind currently lies in the front half of the winter, as opposed to the more typical back half. I am still quite unsure as to how December and perhaps even the first half of January will play out. Analogs are split on this general time frame while almost all of them go into an extremely favorable synoptic pattern for cold and snow after mid January. The majority of our weighted analog sets currently match the projected back half of October pattern well - with a GOA low developing and ridging developing into BC and perhaps even a Western USA split flow. As this wave guide adjusts, the potential exists for another SE ridge episode in November. But the overall analog set leads to a very similar theme to what we have seen pictured above. I will include it here with the important note that these analogs, although weighted, are likely to change still as we get closer to the winter forecast release. PS - we weighted these analogs based off a variety of things (QBO, past 12 months of stratospheric evolution, NAO, ENSO transitions over the past 24 months, etc) A couple of things to take away that many others have mentioned above - A highly amplified higher latitude pattern continues to appear in most of the analog subsets - The potential for notable/significant high latitude blocking in Central Canada - A persistent and/or notable Aleutian trough - Insufficient/non-committal NAO suggestions on analogs, at least in the Atlantic domain While we continue to dive deeper into the analog portion of the forecast, my thoughts have not changed much for quite some time. I continue to believe that this winter has the potential to deliver periods of significant snow and cold, but the intensity and breadth of such episodes remains highly uncertain.

Michael has shown many synoptic signs of strengthening over the past 12 hours. There seems to be some signs of rapid intensification hangover, because the community in general is not necessarily as concerned - or does not appear to be as concerned - and my theory is that the lack of explosive/rapid intensification with the storm has something to do with it. Nevertheless, the intensification will occur. Earlier today, Michael displayed continued hot tower development within a ring of convection along its southeast eyewall quadrant. The system itself remains asymmetric as westerly shear in the mid levels of the atmosphere continues to have at least some sort of affect on the storms broader circulation. However, about 2 hours ago, a large majority of the deeper convection and colder cloud tops became slanted upshear towards the northwest side of the storms circulation. This is another sign of gradual intensification. We are seeing the fruits of this now as convection has wrapped around the center of the storm. My suspicion is that the storms intensification will continue to be gradual, but if there is going to be a time when the intensification is most steady, it will be this evening. The latest microwave passes have shown a gradual but continued organization of the storms core, and most near term forecast models suggest that westerly wind shear will weaken a bit as the storm continues to move into a slightly more favorable synoptic environment. My hunch is that this will be a Category 3 by later today and perhaps flirting with a Category 4 not long thereafter.

Carry on...

Hi friends

Good stuff as always, Tom. I tend to have more confidence in this Modoki development when compared to the past few (for a variety of reasons), but you are right to be cautious. Regardless of official Modoki declaration or not, I look forward to chatting with you here this winter. I think we will have a lot to discuss

My favorite city in the country, easily. (Sorry for the four month delayed reply)

As of this morning, Nino 4 now has reached a 30-day anomaly threshold of +0.5 C with a daily peak over +1c. While conditions over the next few weeks will be variable, this is the first in a series of checkpoints needed to declare a Modoki-type El Nino. If these values are maintained over the next 2-3 months, a Modoki El Nino will be officially declared. At this juncture the chances of a Modoki event are increasing steadfast. I do not feel this is similar to the prior opportunity being discussed here, where most of the support for the Modoki type development was on long range model guidance or heresay. We are beginning to see the physical development of it at this juncture. It remains to be seen, however, exactly how it develops and to what degree. As many of you are aware, Modoki El Nino's have a much different effect on global atmospheric circulations than a typical El Nino. Each Modoki El Nino is also different - and the hemispheric pattern that surrounds it also has a large impact on the way it affects us, particularly here in the Lower 48 states. Over the next few weeks, we will begin to get the earliest hints and ideas as to how things will shake down globally. Out of respect, it should be noted that I did go on record (on another weather forum) in 2015 in making the call that the 2018-2019 winter would be a Top-5 or Top-10 snowfall winter for the Northeast states. I will go down with this ship as I did make a gentlemen's bet and I intend to bring it up whether I am correct or not this year. With that being said, I see no reason to adjust that call at this time Enjoy the rest of your summer folks

20 games over .500 ...

Minneapolis on 7/1/2017

You are the Colin of sports forums

Ironically it seems you never say that when it shows a mega hit. Perhaps just coincidence

Storm chasing blog is up with some analog research for the months ahead! https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/04/02/chase-2018-early-analysis-regional-targeting/

I have about 2” of April sun angle accumulation so far