earthlight

The only real synoptic problem here is the southward-moving disturbance over new england that cuts off the pva and results in further suppression. This run was otherwise perfect and closely resembled some classic snowstorms of the past. That being said, forget the details. The signal is strong and the hemispheric synoptic support is fantastic. It will change 9000 times but these are the overall signals we look for at this range.

These next two months are going to be great fun

I’d argue a poorly timed PV lobe over New England was the only thing stopping this run from showing a MECS+. Don’t need a phase with that setup

Don’t say it, @Chris L. Don’t you dare.

Gorgeous setup. Great signal. Sleep well.

NAO ridging at work

Another look at the composite comparison with the EPS

Yeah a few years back I created a whole slew of these but unfortunately I lost the composites on my computer. I can probably recreate them when I get home later.

Which lag is this? I remember creating a ton of them but each had a different lag. Is this the date of the storm or x days before?

Buckle up kids.

just an opinion

Don’t agree, there’s a 2 sigma ridge over greenland. What’s needed here is better timing and less southwesterly flow initially. The blocking is one of the pieces that forces this to redevelop in the first place. We could also shed that central canada tpv elongation.

It only slides off the coast because of this specific evolution aloft, which has changed since last night. The surface high is also a product of what’s going on aloft

I have a hard time seeing New England escaping this synoptic setup without some winter weather. This is solid across the hemisphere with the one exception being the Central Canada TPV.