earthlight

The setup modeled in the Atlantic for that potential system is literally the worst it could possibly be. I couldn’t draw a worse look if you wanted a big phasing bomb

Or anything other than that exact configurarion in the Atlantic

Yeah, i’ll eat crow on suggesting this wouldn’t work out

The precip map is showing you the last 6 hours, while the fgen map is showing you a snapshot of that exact second. That’s why there’s a difference

There’s a very distinct warm layer to start at 850-900hPa. That’s why the kuchera is lower and probably more accurate

One of the models many talents

must be the sea surface temps off the continental shelf at work again

Arguing about snow online: A love story

Yep! A school of fish in the deep waters off Ambrose Light can affect air parcels which will then be lifted into the storm system. We have to monitor this closely

I am so excited to track the SST forecast on the 18z GFS! A few degrees on the gridpoint 4.2 miles east of the continental shelf could make all the difference for NYC’s snow prospects!

Euro at hour 69 (nice) looks less amped than it’s 6z run to me

As a brief counterpoint, I will make this argument as well: While I don't favor this synoptic setup for notable snow in the I-95 corridor, areas 25-50 miles inland could be served well by dynamics. There is plenty of support for mid and low level fgen and the upper level jet orientation suggests there will be plenty of room for this to develop.

This speaks to another point I was discussing above regarding the synoptics - the low pressure system in Eastern Canada completely screws up the boundary layer and low level flow. So even if you get a track to the south, you run the risk of rain. Walking a razor thin line and hoping that timing works out. This is not a synoptically favorable setup.

Sure. Here's one of the biggest issues with this setup as a whole - notice how this large and circular PV lobe passes through Central Canada on Saturday, as energy is getting ready to eject eastward into the middle of the country. This is a very poor position, orientation and alignment to have. I have no idea what you mean by "warm air advection would not matter as much" since it is literally what is driving precipitation on every model. After this time, the GFS suggests that this piece will slide eastward into Southeastern Canada, acting to keep the frontal zone associated with our potential storm system slightly further south. With very little help from the NAO or the Atlantic as a whole, I have a hard time believing that this idea is correct. Even if it is marginally correct, the boundary layer is completely affected by the low pressure that develops to the north - and the mid levels are driven by the warm air advection process occurring as the shortwave moves toward our area from the Southeast. The European is even less favorable, with the entire TPV lobe centered in Central Canada and heights allowed to open up on the East Coast as a result. Without any Atlantic blocking, this is the solution that makes the most sense to me. Does that mean it's guaranteed? No. But my opinion is that we will simply be lucky (and I will be wrong) if this storm system happens to slide eastward and southward far enough for us to get snow. This is not a good synoptic setup by any stretch of the imagination, and furthermore I am not using or cherry-picking model solutions to prove my point. My opinion is based on the larger scale synoptic pattern evolution at hand throughout the hemisphere, and that's why I am comfortable siding with the warmer ECMWF idea and the likelihood that this system will not bring notable snowfall to the I-95 corridor.