earthlight

The FV3 is basically the EPS Control, so we've got that going for us

Off Chris Ray. Might have been 40 F that day

Excellent post - continue to think 1-3” is the correct call for NYC and the lower end of that may end up being more correct. Central NJ a different story

Big time signal on the EPS

I’ll start a gofundme for you and your associated potential medical bills. godspeed

True, last time I went out and tried forcefully shoving a tape measure into ice it wasn’t a successful endeavor

Last week I risked my god damned life and went out into the battle zone. Freezing rain was falling, the trees were literally screaming in pain from ice accretion. As I sifted through the dead bodies scattered on the ground, I watched someone else trying to measure the freezing rain. He slipped, fell down, broke his entire neck off and was never heard of again. Through it all, I was able to find a lone tree in my suburban neighborhood. As the ice began to accumulate on my face, my vision became blurry. I wasn’t thinking straight. I was able to crack off a branch and measure about 0.003” of ice accretion. I stumbled back inside, nearly losing a finger, and notified the NWS of my report. It was a harrowing experience, but I look forward to continue to serve the spotting community.

700hPa fgen should quickly become diffuse as it moves north of the Mason Dixon line, separating and arcing to the east once it reaches Central PA. Northwesterly flow aloft should help guide it eastward but it will weaken and very quickly become unimpressive. Dendritic growth will slow and dry air will work in quickly. I'll take the under on this one.

Can you perhaps elaborate a bit on exactly how snow water equivalent in North america as a whole impacts our winter weather potential over the next week?

These are my favorite storms, because the anecdotal weenie comments are gone, people are done trolling and @ 'ing me on twitter, and we can enjoy tracking a storm.

Great surface high pressure positioning on the GFS. The northwest confluent flow helps us ahead of the systems arrival as well. Plenty of warm air advection-drive precipitation, but it does hit a breaking point where the fgen will die off in Southern New England as the northwest flow aloft works in. This is a very convoluted setup, but the potential is there for snow area-wide.

Just be glad you weren't tracking snow in the 80's.

Yeah, I think so too. It's unfortunate that it shook down this way, this Winter will largely be seen as a failure because of the major potential. I think from a birds eye view, the forecast panned out reasonably close to expectations. Our forecast had a dead ratters December and a change in late Jan with a colder/active Feb. The first half was fine but the chips fell slightly differently than expected in late Jan and Feb. The recurring thought I keep having in my head regarding our winter forecast is that we almost had it perfect from October. Almost.

Sorry dude. I'm as bummed out as everyone else. It's hard to maintain that perspective after KU's year after year. But the pattern coming up is very good for light and moderate events, which we have been painfully lacking this season.

And it has been a long time coming, I can think of 10 storms in the past 5 years that gave us 6"+ in a pattern we had no business getting snow in.