earthlight

Wouldn't turn my back on this anytime soon. A long way to go...

@NJwxguy78 Spectacular reimagining - I cant believe it has been a decade since that was written. Some things change, most remain the same

Will have a more detailed update out hopefully by the end of the week!

It’s how you handle the errors that matters. And he did not handle it with grace. Let’s leave it at that.

Even worse was the useless defense of his acts afterward and total firestorm of those who criticized his stuff. Guess it’s easy to grandstand and criticize actual meteorologists when you play both sides of the coin 24/7. Anyway....Merry Christmas guys

I mean you’re looking at a muted ensemble signal at hour 360, im not sure what you mean by a trough “without real structure”. I also don’t think there’s been a tremendous amount of hype here regarding the pattern - more of a discussion of overall favorability. All in all, it’s more about the evolution of the hemispheric waveguide and the changes to the driving forces behind that, which have been discussed for several days now. You could make an argument the ECMWF EPS have a different or less favorable evolution than the GEFS. Otherwise i’m not too sure where you’re going with this post..

January 2020 weighted analog composites (from our winter forecast) December 2019 weighted analog composites

The only real synoptic problem here is the southward-moving disturbance over new england that cuts off the pva and results in further suppression. This run was otherwise perfect and closely resembled some classic snowstorms of the past. That being said, forget the details. The signal is strong and the hemispheric synoptic support is fantastic. It will change 9000 times but these are the overall signals we look for at this range.

These next two months are going to be great fun

I’d argue a poorly timed PV lobe over New England was the only thing stopping this run from showing a MECS+. Don’t need a phase with that setup

Don’t say it, @Chris L. Don’t you dare.

Gorgeous setup. Great signal. Sleep well.

NAO ridging at work

Another look at the composite comparison with the EPS

Yeah a few years back I created a whole slew of these but unfortunately I lost the composites on my computer. I can probably recreate them when I get home later.