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LowerHudsWXGeek

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  1. Might be in a warm pattern but here in the northeast we will be getting a few fronts to bring us back to avg for a brief time. We get Tuesday - Wednesday again on Friday and than perhaps some back-door front action around the following Monday. Here is GFS for Tuesday - Wednesday and Friday and the following Monday mornings.
  2. Im not sure exactly how accurate these maps are but Northern places are a bit ahead comparing to last year
  3. Temperatures dont effect leave change time by to much, it can only wiggle 2 weeks at most. high humidity and a lack of cool nights is what makes leave change later. Most of the change has to do with day length. We had a nice first half of September and it doesnt look like this warm pattern will result in to much humidity. So I think we will be late but it cant really get later than last year. Last year NYC hit peak a little after November 5th which is about 1 week late and we had a few nights 20F above avg.
  4. I usually think that looking at any operational model run beyond 240 hours is almost useless, Always changes a lot per run. Ensemble are good at long range but just to get a general idea of what might happen. Here you have a very old GFS run for next Tuesday. just jumps back and forth per run at that range. There is not much of a reason to bother with operational models at that range. i'd be surprised if an operational model showed consistency at that range.
  5. Keep in mind the EPS is a mean of a bunch of members so of course it tends to be more steady. Also keep in mind EPS took a long time till it finally noticed a cool-down this week and only just now started showing a cool-down next week.
  6. Pattern ahead does look very warm but watch out for some possible back-door front action again for NE. Would be nice if we can once again escape the warmth a bit.
  7. GEFS won the round 1 this week as Euro and EPS refused to believe for a while that we will have a nice cool-down this week. This time all have a nice front Euro and EPS much weaker with it with a quick rebound while GEFS is saying a somewhat of a repeat of this week.
  8. NYC from September 1 through the 15th has ended exactly at avg: 0.0 NYC had 8 days of Below avg temperature and 7 days above avg so far. The highest temp anomaly is +8.7F and the coldest temp anomaly is -8.9F so far. Hottest temperature is 88F and the coldest 56F through the 15th.
  9. The Northeast is getting lucky with this warm pattern. Another nice cool-down coming Tuesday - Wednesday.
  10. 88F high for me 75F now with a dew point of 72F, ugh. Please to not let this happen again.
  11. Back door front for the win next week! I hope this does work out. if it does some brief cooler weather but the biggest effect of it will be is to keep dew points low for mid next week,
  12. I got about avg last year. and yes most if fell outside of the heard of winter (November 15 and March 1-6 was most of my snow) but also keep in mind that nearly all snow came with a mix in our area thus making the snow cover more ice than snow. My first snow with no mixing at all was in March!
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