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ghoneym

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About ghoneym

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  • Birthday 04/12/1981

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    Leven, UK

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  1. ghoneym

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    2 years with very late final Stratosphere vortex warmings. Don't get me wrong this years stratosphere vortex looks pretty much finished, however the troposphere vortex still has a hand to play. The colder anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere looks to continue on through the start of spring? Charts available at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ Or just type in on the search engine of your choice....Stratosphere - troposphere monitoring
  2. ghoneym

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    A less well know teleconnection - the SD or Seychelles dome. An ocean based teleconnection that influences the initiation process of the MJO in the Western Indian ocean. Sometimes we need to look backwards before we move forwards.....
  3. ghoneym

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    I think this is a great question and something everyone with a passion for our global climate would benefit from. The base state at any given time has so many variables attached to it that a single flow chart would be extremely difficult to achieve imo. Maybe if it was broken down into multiple (probably hundreds) of individual flow charts for varying base states of global conditions / variable inputs, that spewed out a composite at the end of each flow chart this would be the holy grail. The UK metoffice carried out some research on behalf of Lloyds group relating to teleconections that may be of benefit to some regarding some of the teleconnection links. 1781G Lloyds Met Report 2016 LINKS.pdf
  4. ghoneym

    Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion

    Hi everyone looking forward to being part of this globally influenced chat. I am very much a novice on the subject of teleconnections but hopefully I can chip in with some constructive input and / or questions for you folks to help with. I will jump straight in and start with "forcing" effects on the NAO & Sudden Stratospheric Warming impacts on these forces.. From the charts below taken from "A Modelling study of Teleconnections and their Tropical Sources" by Iris Manola. The forcing applied from the middle Pacific is the best suited forcing pattern for Negative NAO and a subsequent colder patter across the states and Europe, as we have been subjected to this winter. The forcing, mainly via the extra tropics in the form of break away waves from the main tropical Kelvin waves are best seen via the MJO later phases and at high amplitude. The figures in the charts are based on a 10-60 day period of climate modelling. My question would be - these figures do not take into consideration in the modelling any Stratosphere downwelling to the troposphere from the Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Would these tropical and extra tropical influences be dampened significantly during such events? Or would the downwelling "excite" the already existing patterns?
  5. ghoneym

    ghoneym

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