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Archerdude44

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About Archerdude44

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    Vernon, NJ (Sussex County)

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  1. Archerdude44

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    Just to add my two cents: the upcoming 5 day mild period is only natural. With such a severe arctic outbreak ongoing now, the atmosphere needs to relax. This, our pacific jet takes control of the flow while the HL blocking “reloads”. Not even close to a winter cancel, it’s actually a good thing. The atmosphere is always seeking a balance, and it’s only natural that we see a pacific dominated flow and airmass come in after a couple of severe arctic intrusions. It’s brief though, as the SSW has basically ensured that HL blocking will continue to develop and increase in intensity. But we need to let the atmosphere “rest”. Reload, then fire!
  2. Archerdude44

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    Oh boy, I think it’s happening.
  3. Same. Pretty typical that we are holding onto snow for longer than thought originally. Always happens up here with CAD situations. Think we still have a good 3 hours.
  4. Winds starting to pick up too. Blowing snow.
  5. Confirming once again. We should do quite well when it’s said and done.
  6. Confirming. Ripping snow, temp has dropped significantly since the afternoon. Mix line still has a ways to go to get through here.
  7. Seems like we got a good several hours of heavy snow to go.
  8. Seems like cold air does want to hold a good fight up here.
  9. Snowing pretty good by mountain creek in Vernon, NJ.
  10. That’s actually a substantial shift at this range. Sampling?
  11. Fits observations. We are in a pretty zonal flow right now and today’s snow is likely going to be further south than modeled. Remember, this wave sets up the weekend. The south push with the light snow tonight may help push that arctic boundary further south, helping to shift the mix line down a good amount more than currently modeled.
  12. Can anyone give me a general idea for extreme NW NJ yet? I’ve heard anywhere from 6-12 inches of snow to 5-8 inches of snow to 12+.
  13. Okay, so now I’m even more confused for my area.
  14. “I invoke thy powers, UKIE. Please shed thy grace onto thy ECMWF and show it the way forward!”
  15. Jeez. I stay all snow this run looks like. Zero mixing.
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