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About Archerdude44

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    Vernon, NJ (Sussex County)

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  1. Expecting the first frost tonight in NW NJ (near Mountain Creek in Vernon Twp). Wouldn’t be surprised if I break the 32 mark with radiational cooling honestly. Frost advisory in effect. Already down to 47 degrees.
  2. Are you thinking more slightly above normal for September rather than a torch? I’m fine with warmer days if the nights start dropping. August doesn’t seem like it will be nearly as warm as July thankfully.
  3. Which is why this will end up occurring lol.
  4. Usually when ensembles show more hits than misses at this range, you should question OP runs. But the theme of this winter has been a fast flow and disjointed energy and then cutters. Though I do think this one has a better shot than anything we’ve seen so far. Definitely encouraging to have the ensembles mostly on our side.
  5. Looks like cold air is present too. Where is the source for that airmass? It would be cold enough right?
  6. I would say we got one shot and make it count but despite everyone calling for an early spring I’m always wary of the end of February and half of March. Hope we can get this one though.
  7. Okay, only meant to show the model itself. Apologies, won’t happen again.
  8. That’s Friday night though. Close enough to see how it’ll pan out. That was more than a bit more amped.
  9. I’m just going off what I heard. Not sure about thermal profiles but I assume if it’s as awesome as those guys were saying then it’d be cold enough.
  10. Few hours faster they would’ve phased and we could’ve had that euro solution from a couple days ago.
  11. As others have stated, I think those recon flights will really help with tomorrow night’s runs. If the NWS is sending out flights to collect data, they’re interested.
  12. Typical at this range. Models confused on how to handle all this energy at once. I have a gut feeling as we move closer it all gets consolidated. That big euro run from a couple days ago could be a legit possible solution.
  13. I feel like this is an absolute perfect spot to be in at range. Sorta reminds me of past major east coast snowstorms at the same range. I feel good about this one.
  14. I’m assuming if we can piece this together properly, it would have a very high ceiling?
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