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Archerdude44

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About Archerdude44

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    Vernon, NJ (Sussex County)

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  1. Archerdude44

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Just noticed I’ve got a frost advisory here in Sussex County NJ. Likely going down to 34 tonight. Next Thursday looks like a potential hard freeze up here as well.
  2. Archerdude44

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Possibly a threat for me in NW NJ. Though the last time we had a snowstorm in October we got a foot+ in 2011 as we all know the winter was a nightmare for our kind of people lol.
  3. Archerdude44

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Still 48 here, actually sorta cold lol. Finally!
  4. Archerdude44

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Yup I’m at a 45/34 split next Thursday. Got several nights in the 30s next week.
  5. Archerdude44

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Me too! I live in Vernon, NJ in Sussex County (right by Mountain Creek Ski Resort). Can’t wait!
  6. Archerdude44

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    This cold front will finally disperse that stupid Bermuda ridge. True fall is here to stay, at last! And the upcoming winter, oh boy, things have been looking great on both the recent seasonal models and observations!
  7. Archerdude44

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    Just had a thought while eating lunch (lol). In just two short months we may be tracking our first snowstorm threat (from what I’ve seen we typically have our first legit threat to track in the December 1-8 period)
  8. Archerdude44

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    Also, the clash of air masses could help spin up some impressive storm systems this cold season as the southeast retains some warmth and moisture from the summer and the buildup of cold, dry air clears southward as we head into winter. Good recipe to spawn nor’easters. Miller A’s?
  9. Archerdude44

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    In my opinion you don’t want a cold early to mid autumn if you want a cold and snowy winter. You want exactly what we are seeing with transient troughs and ridges swinging through in a zonal pattern while cold continues to build and deepens in the high latitudes. Also, wavelengths are now in the process of lengthening as the seasons shift. A lot of memorable winters were preceded by average to warm falls.
  10. Archerdude44

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    Went down to 48 this morning. Still chilly now at 52, I can see my breath. Second morning in a row in the 40s here in NW NJ. Summer is certainly over no matter how many red anomaly maps are printed out.
  11. Archerdude44

    Mid/Long Range Winter Pattern Discussion

    But not impossible
  12. 9-13 inches with up to 16 inches here in Sussex County, NJ. Can’t wait!
  13. Archerdude44

    March 20-22 Winter Storm Threat Part I

    No I understand. Just look at our first wave though, most models had it several miles further south and observations are not. We will see how that affects the main wave, as they are connected closely.
  14. Archerdude44

    March 20-22 Winter Storm Threat Part I

    Cutoff is far north there. Seems like it’ll setup through the upper Hudson valley and down near Montague and into the Scranton area. But, like I said, it isn’t set in stone. Could end up way further south and cutoff just north of NYC.
  15. Archerdude44

    March 20-22 Winter Storm Threat Part I

    I mean I’m in Vernon, NJ (Sussex County) and I’m not. Huge storm whether or not my backyard gets huge totals. Up here I have a WSW for 11-15 inches of snow but honestly I’m thinking more like 3-6. This will be great for you guys down south though, enjoy!
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