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Bring Back 1962-63

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Bring Back 1962-63 last won the day on October 18 2019

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About Bring Back 1962-63

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  • Birthday 02/22/1953

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  1. I'm sorry but this is almost wholly wrong! You have misread the chart and your comments are extremely misleading to say the least. The chart shows a typical transient and more mobile flow, with a succession of ridges and troughs in all regions. Let's look at the latest forecasts: Starting with ECM to coincide with their chart that you posted out to T+240 (or Dec 17th). The AO is +ve out to at least Dec 15th. The control run (black) drops to slightly -ve by day 9 but note that most of the ens members remain +ve. The mean briefly goes to neutral around day 10 but rec
  2. Hi BL74, you did not elaborate on your comment but it is important to read these charts accurately and put what they show into context. Reading from top to bottom, we have the activity for the past month down to the forecast line (Dec 6th) and then the forecast for the next 7 days below the line. The warm colours (yellow/red shades) are generally westerly wind anomalies and the cold colours (blues/purple shades) are generally easterly trades. The deep red (pink/white centre) coincided with the peak of the slightly more active phase of the MJO in the 3rd week of Nov and that was centred just
  3. Low solar "can" be associated with colder winters. More often the coldest winters tend to be just after the solar minimum. We are right at the minimum right now. There is usually a run of 3 winters which "can" be influenced and any combo of 0, 1, 2 or all 3 can see colder patterns. The last minimum was in 2009 and there was a triple hit. In the UK (and Western Europe) we had a cold winter in 2008/9, 2009/10 and the coldest Dec since 1890 in 2010/11 (although the 2nd half of that winter was mild). I haven't got time to go into the causes and potential impacts right no
  4. I'm sorry but I'm afraid that your comment is very wide of the mark. We look at all the main teleconnections and it is these that drive the broader patterns and the Pacific is merely a part of it all - have you stopped to think what drives the Pacific? Our references to the NAO were far more to do with responding to so many on here going for a -ve NAO when we stated that it would turn +ve. In any case a -ve NAO, particularly a west based one is very useful for eastern CONUS usually allowing a trough to develop over there, just west of the ridge in the western N Atlantic. You need to look at
  5. GENERAL TELECONNECTIONS UPDATE Hi Tom, an excellent post and one which I wish to elaborate on. I haven't got that much time - so no long explanations of what all the charts are showing (that'll have to wait until next week) just a brief comment below each one. In essence "nothing" has really changed despite the usual variations in the longer term model output which provoked both excitement and disagreements on here, even among some high profile posters. As Tom @Isotherm, Tams @Tamara, several others and myself have been saying, it's the teleconnections (background signals) that dr
  6. WHAT AN EXTRORDINARY AND TIMELY COINCIDENCE Firstly, a Happy Thanksgiving to all of you across "the pond" and a Happy Thursday to everyone else! A brand new paper has just been published (this Monday) and it's open access. It covers exactly what a number of us have been discussing wrt the ENSO base state, the MJO phases and the NAO as well as predicting changes in seasonal wave lengths. Here's a link to the Research Portal entry: ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe Plain Language Summary: The Madden‐Julia
  7. ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe Authors: R. W. Lee, S. J. Woolnough, A. J. Charlton‐Perez and F. Vitart Published online: 25th November 2019 Abstract: The teleconnection from the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides a source of subseasonal variability and predictability to the North Atlantic‐European (NAE) region. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the seasonal mean state, through which the MJO and its teleconnection pattern propagates; however, its impact on this teleconnection to the NAE re
  8. MORE ABOUT THE GSDM, THE GWO, GLAAM AND THE TORQUES AND WHY THEY ARE SO IMPORTANT Some members may be a little puzzled with a number of posts on this thread referring to the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model), the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation), GLAAM (Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum), FT (Frictional Torque) and GLMT (Global Mountain Torque and all the regional torques). In this post I shall explain a little more about these and why they are so important in our understanding of what controls the broader patterns, assess the key teleconnections and how they dominate and intera
  9. Welcome to the "long" post brigade! This is an outstanding post and clearly explained and well laid out. I concur with a very large part of it. Obviously we will need to closely monitor the GWO - not only the current fairly neutral orbit which some of us have been discussing in our posts on here but the orbit later in December which will be hugely important moving into mid Winter. A lot to be resolved during the next 4 weeks. David
  10. That's yet another outstanding post Tams. @sebastiaan1973 Hi Sebastiaan - good to see you being active on this forum - check out the UK and European Discussion thread which I launched about a month ago. I hope that you can make some regular contributions on there. To answer you query that you put to @Tamara - Tams never produces long range forecasts but she does provide a good indication of the likely broader patterns and changes going forward for several weeks ahead based on her excellent knowledge of the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model), the GWO (Global Wind Osc
  11. No time for a full update this week but the 2019 ice extent passed 10 m sq kn early yesterday. I'll show the newer improved Version 3 chart below (JAXA still use Version 2 and I'll explain the difference next time): We had been comparing 2019 to 2012 (the record low ice extent year) but 2012 continued its rapid recovery while 2019 has recently slowed from its record rate of recovery from late Oct to early Nov. 2019 has recently passed 2017, 2006 and 2010 having exceeded 2016 some time ago. So now only the 5th lowest for the date but with renewed very rapid ice growth expected duri
  12. I FEEL THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME MISINTERPRETATION OF THE ENSO BASE STATE WHICH IS SKEWING SOME OF THE EARLY WINTER FORECASTS Quite a few reports on here (most often quoting tweets or other social media sources) showing medium to longer range forecasts have been assuming that the Nino or Nino-like base state will continue throughout winter. In my recent comprehensive ENSO updates on here and on the Teleconnection thread, I have been endeavouring to explain why I feel the reliance on these conditions has been somewhat misplaced. For example, El Nino type analogs have been used to sho
  13. @Tamara @Isotherm Tams and Tom, I fully concur with your posts above. I'm suffering a bit from over posting exhaustion, so I'll be particularly brief. In essence, the thrust of all our recent posts on here or the Teleconnections thread relating to the GWO, GLAAM, the torques, the ENSO state, the MJO, other oscillations, the Stratosphere and on the discussion wrt a minor warming event or the highly unlikely early SSW (+ my additional comments wrt to Arctic sea ice extent and N hem snow cover) have been looking at the current patterns and developments and at the broader scale patterns and gen
  14. One last quick post before I take a break for a day or so (try and keep me away!). Following my long post last night on assessing analog years (which you pinned to the top of the page - for now!), I provided a large number of links to examine the teleconnections to make more accurate and realistic comparisons. I'll just show 2 charts for 1995/96 with brief comments but I would like to see others use these assessment tools too - its both fun and very informative - indeed once you have done it once it gets pretty infectious and it may well catch on! GLAAM rose from neutral into a hig
  15. Just a quick one on the latest ENSO model consensus. The latest IRI/CPC monthly update came out on Tuesday/Wednesday. I show this with the October chart below for a quick comparison. My comments are in between and below. Link to their site: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ We need to remember that the 3 month rolling periods have advanced by one when aligning the two charts. These only relate to the Nino 3.4 region. Following the slight rise from Sept to Oct (the current observation point) we can compare the two OND to NDJ
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