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Bring Back 1962-63

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  1. SURFACE (LAND) TEMPERATURES AND ANOMALIES There are a number of sites which provide some current and archived records of surface land temperatures and anomalies but possibly the most comprehensive one is provided by Karsten Haustein on this site: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php This contains a wealth of information with many global and regional records, tables, maps and charts including: Current temperatures and year to date - update daily Forecast temperatures for up to a week ahead Hindcast temperatures for past 7 days, past 30 days and month to date Comparisons with previous model runs Archive temperatures, means and anomalies from 2011 to date Links to other sites and much more (see below) I list some of these below with a few example charts, tables and maps to give you an idea of the extensive data available. Global Temperature Anomalies - Year to Date with 7 Day Forecast trend (updated daily on the site) - March 8th, 2019: Global and Regional Forecast and Hindcast Temperature Anomalies - updated daily: This chart has been snipped and pasted - to use the features please use the main link above Here are several examples from March 8th 2019: Comparion of Previous Model Runs Global and Regional Forecast and Hindcast Temperature Anomalies - updated daily: This chart has been snipped and pasted - to use the features please use the main link above Here are several examples from March 8th 2019: Archive of Global and Regional Monthly Mean Temperatures from January 2011 to Date - updated monthly: This chart has been copied across and all the direct links to each feature should work ok. Archive of monthly means (CFSR-GFS, NCEP reanalysis, GISS temperature): Global Robin. Europe USA48 Arctic Antarc. GFS NCEP GISS GFS NCEP GISS GFS NCEP GISS GFS NCEP GISS GFS NCEP GISS GFS NCEP GISS 2011: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2011: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2011: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2011: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2011: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2011: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2011: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2011: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2011: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2011: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2011: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2011: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2012: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2012: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2012: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2012: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2012: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2012: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2012: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2012: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2012: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2012: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2012: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2012: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2013: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2013: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2013: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2013: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2013: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2013: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2013: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2013: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2013: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2013: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2013: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2013: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2014: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2014: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2014: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2014: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2014: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2014: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2014: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2014: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2014: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2014: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2014: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2014: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2015: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2015: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2015: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2015: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2015: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2015: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2015: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2015: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2015: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2015: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2015: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2015: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2016: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2016: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2016: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2016: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2016: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2016: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2016: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2016: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2016: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2016: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2016: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2016: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2017: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2017: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2017: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2017: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2017: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2017: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2017: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2017: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2017: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2017: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2017: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2017: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2018: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2018: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2018: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2018: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2018: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2018: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2018: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2018: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2018: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2018: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2018: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2018: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) 2019: JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN 2019: FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB 2019: MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR 2019: APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR 2019: MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY MAY 2019: JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN JUN 2019: JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL 2019: AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG AUG 2019: SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP SEP 2019: OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT 2019: NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV NOV 2019: DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Loop (all Global) Loop (all Robin.) Loop (all Europe) Loop (all USA48) Loop (all Arctic) Loop (all Antarc.) Here are several examples from particular dates: Much more to follow in due course. I may split some of this topic into several sub categories.
  2. EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) Current and archived ENSO and related data appears on a number of sites. NOAA, in particular, have a vast amount of archived material. Here's the link to their main page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Their weekly ENSO reports are listed here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf These are updated every Monday and contain a forecast summary. There are current and recent past charts on ENSO region sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sub surface conditions, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, US temperature and precipitation anomalies over 30 and 90 days and forecasts and much more. Here are a few examples from the March 4th, 2019 report (with additional link and further information included): Nino Region SSTs: Sub Surface Temperature Anomalies: The NOAA archives have records of sub surface temperatures with the monthly average anomalies from January 1979 to date in tabular format. Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Equtorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C) YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 1979 1 .56 .49 .39 1979 2 .83 .85 .97 1979 3 .38 .36 .31 1979 4 .01 -.09 -.21 1979 5 .17 .12 .06 1979 6 .24 .25 .35 1979 7 .14 .09 .19 1979 8 .34 .34 .49 1979 9 .71 .79 .91 1979 10 .63 .65 .63 1979 11 .66 .81 1.06 1979 12 .77 .90 .92 1980 1 .58 .80 .83 1980 2 .48 .56 .62 1980 3 .46 .50 .50 1980 4 .51 .64 .82 1980 5 .63 .80 1.14 1980 6 .75 .95 1.17 1980 7 .21 .22 .27 1980 8 .14 .07 .04 1980 9 .05 -.11 -.26 1980 10 .18 .05 .02 1980 11 .41 .37 .35 1980 12 .46 .46 .61 1981 1 .33 .26 .36 1981 2 .26 .21 .30 1981 3 .64 .73 1.02 1981 4 .53 .63 .77 1981 5 .23 .26 .24 1981 6 -.11 -.19 -.22 1981 7 -.38 -.51 -.66 1981 8 -.29 -.50 -.59 1981 9 .18 .05 .14 1981 10 .26 .20 .25 1981 11 .09 -.02 .02 1981 12 .10 -.10 -.22 1982 1 .33 .22 .21 1982 2 .59 .53 .56 1982 3 .74 .78 .92 1982 4 .69 .79 .93 1982 5 .72 .90 .96 1982 6 .76 .89 1.01 1982 7 .79 .95 1.11 1982 8 1.04 1.28 1.61 1982 9 1.15 1.53 1.86 1982 10 1.33 1.83 2.07 1982 11 1.20 1.74 1.92 1982 12 .80 1.26 1.45 1983 1 -.10 .15 .05 1983 2 -.66 -.56 -.81 1983 3 -.94 -.83 -.95 1983 4 -.12 .15 .23 1983 5 -.36 -.12 -.32 1983 6 -.79 -.69 -1.12 1983 7 -1.07 -1.06 -1.51 1983 8 -1.23 -1.29 -1.66 1983 9 -1.54 -1.73 -2.15 1983 10 -1.63 -1.83 -2.25 1983 11 -1.36 -1.54 -1.81 1983 12 -.96 -1.13 -1.36 1984 1 -.70 -.86 -.87 1984 2 -.61 -.82 -.90 1984 3 -.48 -.71 -.92 1984 4 -.42 -.63 -.77 1984 5 -.63 -.90 -1.11 1984 6 -.63 -.90 -1.15 1984 7 -.16 -.24 -.25 1984 8 -.12 -.21 -.22 1984 9 -.19 -.29 -.37 1984 10 -.56 -.75 -.93 1984 11 -.37 -.50 -.63 1984 12 -.21 -.31 -.35 1985 1 .02 -.09 -.16 1985 2 -.23 -.31 -.34 1985 3 -.34 -.50 -.65 1985 4 -.06 -.19 -.24 1985 5 .19 .07 .09 1985 6 .15 .03 -.02 1985 7 .06 -.03 -.08 1985 8 .18 .12 .24 1985 9 .07 -.07 -.20 1985 10 -.05 -.16 -.26 1985 11 .11 .05 .11 1985 12 .24 .16 .27 1986 1 .25 .19 .21 1986 2 .45 .42 .41 1986 3 .37 .34 .46 1986 4 .14 .01 -.02 1986 5 .42 .35 .31 1986 6 .53 .61 .80 1986 7 .44 .49 .45 1986 8 .30 .38 .50 1986 9 .45 .56 .65 1986 10 .60 .81 .95 1986 11 .38 .53 .52 1986 12 .59 .77 .97 1987 1 .54 .93 1.22 1987 2 .15 .37 .17 1987 3 .18 .49 .60 1987 4 .00 .26 .31 1987 5 .13 .42 .58 1987 6 -.09 .17 .37 1987 7 -.42 -.25 -.10 1987 8 -.28 -.05 .20 1987 9 -.47 -.29 -.25 1987 10 -.43 -.23 -.17 1987 11 -.51 -.40 -.37 1987 12 -.52 -.54 -.67 1988 1 -.47 -.46 -.45 1988 2 -.77 -.86 -.88 1988 3 -.94 -1.10 -1.31 1988 4 -1.10 -1.43 -1.76 1988 5 -1.00 -1.29 -1.55 1988 6 -.80 -1.08 -1.22 1988 7 -.52 -.73 -.87 1988 8 -.40 -.61 -.72 1988 9 -.59 -.88 -1.07 1988 10 -1.05 -1.52 -2.01 1988 11 -.99 -1.51 -2.04 1988 12 -.80 -1.31 -1.65 1989 1 -.34 -.72 -.89 1989 2 .17 -.12 -.11 1989 3 .52 .34 .42 1989 4 .55 .45 .50 1989 5 .62 .58 .61 1989 6 .70 .70 .87 1989 7 .63 .65 .78 1989 8 .37 .29 .35 1989 9 .36 .24 .26 1989 10 .11 -.06 -.02 1989 11 .04 -.12 -.22 1989 12 .46 .48 .64 1990 1 .63 .68 .78 1990 2 .86 .98 1.08 1990 3 .68 .88 1.14 1990 4 .37 .56 .65 1990 5 .10 .05 .05 1990 6 -.05 -.20 -.30 1990 7 .22 .16 .27 1990 8 .38 .37 .46 1990 9 .27 .32 .25 1990 10 .35 .40 .50 1990 11 .34 .28 .38 1990 12 .51 .61 .88 1991 1 .51 .64 .92 1991 2 .29 .35 .29 1991 3 .20 .24 .18 1991 4 .36 .47 .80 1991 5 .58 .71 .76 1991 6 .51 .68 .77 1991 7 .53 .64 .73 1991 8 .35 .43 .49 1991 9 .38 .54 .60 1991 10 .77 1.07 1.41 1991 11 .76 1.04 1.22 1991 12 .85 1.23 1.71 1992 1 .83 1.27 1.57 1992 2 .94 1.54 1.98 1992 3 .25 .70 .83 1992 4 -.19 .19 .38 1992 5 -.69 -.40 -.32 1992 6 -1.04 -.83 -.78 1992 7 -.89 -.72 -.73 1992 8 -.78 -.66 -.73 1992 9 -.68 -.54 -.56 1992 10 -.56 -.52 -.50 1992 11 -.42 -.35 -.27 1992 12 -.24 -.05 .19 1993 1 -.18 .07 .27 1993 2 -.05 .17 .28 1993 3 .08 .38 .56 1993 4 .23 .61 .81 1993 5 .00 .32 .42 1993 6 -.47 -.31 -.29 1993 7 -.66 -.50 -.40 1993 8 -.58 -.47 -.38 1993 9 -.29 -.12 .12 1993 10 -.23 -.07 .10 1993 11 -.24 -.15 .02 1993 12 -.36 -.36 -.33 1994 1 -.53 -.57 -.62 1994 2 -.53 -.64 -.60 1994 3 -.45 -.58 -.40 1994 4 -.22 -.35 -.14 1994 5 .04 .00 .16 1994 6 .04 .05 .14 1994 7 .03 .00 .02 1994 8 .28 .40 .67 1994 9 .31 .46 .70 1994 10 .50 .76 1.12 1994 11 .67 .91 1.16 1994 12 .39 .63 .80 1995 1 .09 .36 .51 1995 2 -.17 .04 .13 1995 3 -.47 -.47 -.44 1995 4 -.52 -.56 -.60 1995 5 -.46 -.50 -.44 1995 6 -.27 -.28 -.14 1995 7 -.23 -.34 -.44 1995 8 -.40 -.62 -.84 1995 9 -.53 -.85 -1.20 1995 10 -.46 -.77 -1.03 1995 11 -.44 -.74 -.86 1995 12 -.31 -.63 -.84 1996 1 .04 -.16 -.29 1996 2 .13 -.02 -.12 1996 3 .21 .09 .05 1996 4 .17 -.03 .01 1996 5 .12 -.07 -.16 1996 6 .14 .08 .17 1996 7 .00 -.15 -.18 1996 8 .04 -.18 -.35 1996 9 -.02 -.26 -.46 1996 10 -.07 -.24 -.30 1996 11 -.10 -.37 -.47 1996 12 .08 -.17 -.30 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 1997 2 .84 .85 1.00 1997 3 1.09 1.26 1.17 1997 4 1.49 1.87 2.17 1997 5 1.38 1.82 2.01 1997 6 1.55 2.01 2.25 1997 7 1.34 1.77 1.83 1997 8 1.07 1.50 1.79 1997 9 1.25 1.85 2.38 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00 1998 2 -.66 -.35 -.38 1998 3 -.76 -.51 -.61 1998 4 -1.08 -.91 -1.06 1998 5 -1.43 -1.42 -1.75 1998 6 -1.68 -1.79 -2.16 1998 7 -1.74 -1.94 -2.29 1998 8 -1.68 -1.97 -2.46 1998 9 -1.44 -1.76 -2.15 1998 10 -1.55 -1.95 -2.35 1998 11 -1.53 -1.96 -2.33 1998 12 -1.34 -1.71 -2.18 1999 1 -1.16 -1.52 -1.80 1999 2 -.93 -1.36 -1.61 1999 3 -.54 -.86 -.99 1999 4 -.42 -.75 -.91 1999 5 -.29 -.59 -.81 1999 6 -.15 -.40 -.52 1999 7 -.31 -.51 -.64 1999 8 -.56 -.87 -1.21 1999 9 -.52 -.92 -1.27 1999 10 -.50 -.88 -1.07 1999 11 -.72 -1.18 -1.48 1999 12 -.77 -1.23 -1.55 2000 1 -.50 -.96 -1.28 2000 2 -.26 -.69 -.91 2000 3 -.04 -.41 -.64 2000 4 .22 -.08 -.31 2000 5 .34 .04 -.18 2000 6 .34 .15 .08 2000 7 .25 .09 .03 2000 8 .14 .04 .00 2000 9 .08 .00 -.12 2000 10 -.11 -.30 -.37 2000 11 -.30 -.54 -.67 2000 12 -.36 -.72 -.96 2001 1 -.07 -.44 -.56 2001 2 -.04 -.41 -.63 2001 3 .22 -.03 -.29 2001 4 .42 .29 .26 2001 5 .27 .13 .11 2001 6 .33 .29 .46 2001 7 .43 .51 .61 2001 8 .09 .10 .12 2001 9 .22 .24 .35 2001 10 .17 .18 .28 2001 11 .18 .18 .22 2001 12 .22 .23 .17 2002 1 .49 .64 .95 2002 2 .51 .64 .78 2002 3 .45 .60 .55 2002 4 .23 .29 .32 2002 5 .10 .03 .07 2002 6 .43 .42 .67 2002 7 .53 .58 .73 2002 8 .70 .81 1.05 2002 9 .93 1.14 1.41 2002 10 1.04 1.40 1.72 2002 11 .78 1.23 1.58 2002 12 .26 .63 .74 2003 1 -.10 .13 .27 2003 2 -.34 -.27 -.11 2003 3 -.29 -.24 -.06 2003 4 -.44 -.51 -.49 2003 5 -.60 -.77 -.85 2003 6 .08 .03 .13 2003 7 .45 .44 .53 2003 8 .24 .20 .03 2003 9 .28 .16 .10 2003 10 .42 .33 .34 2003 11 .52 .53 .54 2003 12 .30 .25 .17 2004 1 .26 .18 .05 2004 2 .20 .16 .19 2004 3 .01 -.05 -.10 2004 4 .20 .19 .21 2004 5 .17 .16 .30 2004 6 .22 .14 .04 2004 7 .53 .62 .83 2004 8 .56 .61 .78 2004 9 .62 .70 .87 2004 10 .54 .56 .61 2004 11 .53 .58 .78 2004 12 .59 .64 .79 2005 1 .40 .42 .52 2005 2 .29 .42 .59 2005 3 .49 .72 1.27 2005 4 .24 .36 .49 2005 5 .06 .01 .00 2005 6 .10 .04 .11 2005 7 .01 -.08 -.20 2005 8 -.05 -.17 -.42 2005 9 -.02 -.16 -.33 2005 10 .01 -.11 -.14 2005 11 -.21 -.44 -.57 2005 12 -.28 -.57 -.74 2006 1 -.28 -.67 -.97 2006 2 -.19 -.56 -.92 2006 3 .09 -.22 -.29 2006 4 .46 .25 .42 2006 5 .64 .49 .54 2006 6 .76 .71 .76 2006 7 .69 .74 .73 2006 8 .80 .91 1.05 2006 9 .85 1.01 1.13 2006 10 .65 .77 .80 2006 11 .74 1.00 1.35 2006 12 .51 .68 .86 2007 1 -.18 -.20 -.46 2007 2 -.48 -.58 -.77 2007 3 -.47 -.62 -.72 2007 4 -.29 -.51 -.59 2007 5 -.23 -.49 -.58 2007 6 -.04 -.22 -.18 2007 7 -.10 -.32 -.48 2007 8 -.16 -.42 -.68 2007 9 -.35 -.69 -1.03 2007 10 -.52 -.87 -1.19 2007 11 -.54 -.97 -1.19 2007 12 -.49 -.87 -1.08 2008 1 -.50 -1.05 -1.50 2008 2 -.30 -.82 -1.20 2008 3 .21 -.26 -.45 2008 4 .48 .09 .02 2008 5 .60 .33 .17 2008 6 .65 .56 .38 2008 7 .50 .47 .42 2008 8 .17 .03 -.15 2008 9 -.12 -.40 -.69 2008 10 -.11 -.34 -.48 2008 11 -.37 -.65 -.77 2008 12 -.65 -1.08 -1.44 2009 1 -.32 -.77 -1.08 2009 2 .00 -.37 -.50 2009 3 .24 .00 .08 2009 4 .59 .52 .65 2009 5 .79 .77 .87 2009 6 1.01 1.07 1.13 2009 7 .93 1.04 1.05 2009 8 .72 .79 .79 2009 9 .64 .72 .76 2009 10 .70 .86 1.04 2009 11 1.00 1.31 1.75 2009 12 .96 1.28 1.36 2010 1 .66 .94 1.14 2010 2 .60 .93 1.24 2010 3 .41 .65 .97 2010 4 -.06 -.01 -.06 2010 5 -.66 -.83 -1.00 2010 6 -.83 -1.12 -1.34 2010 7 -.80 -1.14 -1.36 2010 8 -.88 -1.33 -1.74 2010 9 -.92 -1.45 -1.93 2010 10 -.89 -1.47 -1.92 2010 11 -.76 -1.31 -1.64 2010 12 -.67 -1.24 -1.56 2011 1 -.35 -.92 -1.27 2011 2 .30 -.11 -.22 2011 3 .72 .50 .50 2011 4 .89 .72 .58 2011 5 .74 .64 .47 2011 6 .52 .46 .39 2011 7 .25 .20 .06 2011 8 -.07 -.22 -.54 2011 9 -.37 -.64 -1.01 2011 10 -.51 -.87 -1.26 2011 11 -.36 -.71 -.92 2011 12 -.40 -.81 -1.07 2012 1 -.28 -.79 -1.17 2012 2 .16 -.26 -.46 2012 3 .40 .06 .00 2012 4 .67 .51 .27 2012 5 .67 .58 .47 2012 6 .71 .66 .56 2012 7 .73 .76 .82 2012 8 .69 .74 .83 2012 9 .40 .44 .36 2012 10 .31 .38 .40 2012 11 .15 .22 .34 2012 12 -.11 -.17 -.27 2013 1 -.24 -.47 -.59 2013 2 -.05 -.23 -.17 2013 3 .13 -.04 .06 2013 4 0.18 -0.02 -0.06 2013 5 0.15 -0.09 -0.14 2013 6 0.31 0.16 0.26 2013 7 0.34 0.28 0.41 2013 8 0.30 0.25 0.32 2013 9 0.40 0.29 0.38 2013 10 0.37 0.26 0.15 2013 11 0.45 0.48 0.62 2013 12 0.33 0.26 0.26 2014 1 0.18 0.00 -0.33 2014 2 0.43 0.42 0.39 2014 3 0.93 1.21 1.60 2014 4 1.00 1.27 1.41 2014 5 0.74 1.00 0.95 2014 6 0.31 0.39 0.27 2014 7 0.05 0.02 -0.18 2014 8 0.36 0.37 0.39 2014 9 0.55 0.58 0.64 2014 10 0.51 0.51 0.53 2014 11 0.62 0.68 0.90 2014 12 0.50 0.48 0.54 2015 1 0.28 0.22 0.15 2015 2 0.54 0.65 0.83 2015 3 0.85 1.17 1.52 2015 4 1.05 1.42 1.74 2015 5 1.03 1.42 1.53 2015 6 0.87 1.27 1.51 2015 7 0.92 1.36 1.69 2015 8 0.99 1.43 1.97 2015 9 1.04 1.48 1.80 2015 10 1.04 1.51 1.91 2015 11 0.92 1.41 1.78 2015 12 0.58 1.04 1.20 2016 1 0.44 0.88 1.25 2016 2 -0.04 0.31 0.56 2016 3 -0.52 -0.33 -0.31 2016 4 -0.92 -0.85 -0.88 2016 5 -1.03 -1.08 -1.15 2016 6 -0.86 -0.97 -1.05 2016 7 -0.63 -0.68 -0.76 2016 8 -0.50 -0.56 -0.71 2016 9 -0.48 -0.55 -0.71 2016 10 -0.59 -0.75 -0.92 2016 11 -0.35 -0.53 -0.62 2016 12 -0.06 -0.18 -0.24 2017 1 0.18 0.07 0.01 2017 2 0.36 0.30 0.15 2017 3 0.43 0.38 0.22 2017 4 0.34 0.28 0.06 2017 5 0.37 0.36 0.30 2017 6 0.21 0.22 0.22 2017 7 0.13 0.15 0.16 2017 8 -0.19 -0.21 -0.40 2017 9 -0.45 -0.57 -0.79 2017 10 -0.54 -0.77 -0.97 2017 11 -0.41 -0.65 -0.84 2017 12 -0.31 -0.54 -0.75 2018 1 0.01 -0.17 -0.16 2018 2 0.29 0.09 -0.11 2018 3 0.46 0.44 0.51 2018 4 0.58 0.62 0.80 2018 5 0.72 0.75 0.88 2018 6 0.77 0.80 0.86 2018 7 0.74 0.73 0.81 2018 8 0.75 0.73 0.81 2018 9 1.03 1.06 1.12 2018 10 1.22 1.39 1.58 2018 11 1.12 1.31 1.35 2018 12 0.88 1.02 1.06 2019 1 0.69 0.77 0.76 2019 2 0.77 0.92 1.10 ENSO Phases - El Nino, La Nina and neutral episodes: The weekly reports also contain more historic data and this table is updated each month: Archived records on ENSO phases go back to 1950 and the full table is available on this link: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Here is the full table: Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1950 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1951 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1952 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1953 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1957 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1958 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1959 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1960 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 1962 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1963 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1964 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 1965 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1966 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1967 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 1968 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1969 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1970 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 1972 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 1973 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 1974 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 1975 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1977 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1978 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 1979 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1980 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1981 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 1982 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 1983 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 1984 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 1985 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 1986 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1987 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.8 1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 Oceanic Nino Index - ONI: NOAA Monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions: The monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are produced on the 2nd Thursday of each month on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Here's an example with page 1 (of 5, including charts) from February 19th, 2019: Earlier "Monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions" are available from January 2001 on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/ENSO_DD_archive.shtml El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion Archive Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 X X 2018 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2017 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2016 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2015 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2014 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2013 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2012 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2011 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2010 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2009 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2008 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2007 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2006 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2005 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2004 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2003 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2002 X X X X X X X X X X X X 2001 X X X X X X X X X X X X NOAA/ National Weather Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Page last modified: November 12, 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Model Predictions for ENSO: The weekly reports show the last (monthly) IRI/CPC Model Predictions of ENSO. These charts can be directly located on this link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/ This site contains a lot of current and archived data with monthly summaries from March 20th, 2002. I show the first one below: These summaries have steadily evolved - here's one from January 2013: NOAA Monthly Climate Diagnostic Bulletins: The NOAA contain their monthly climate diagnostic bulletins from February 1999 to date for the tropics and extra tropics on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/CDB_archive.shtml These contain a vast amount of atmospheric and ocean data with sub links to charts and table. As an example, here's the February 1999 bulletin: February 1999 TROPICS Highlights Table of Atmospheric Indices Table 1 Table of SST Indices Table2 Time Series Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Tahiti and Darwin SLP Anomalies OLR Anomalies T1 Equatorial SOI T2 200-mb Zonal Wind Anomalies 500-mb Temperature Anomalies 30-mb Zonal Wind Anomalies T3 850-mb Zonal Wind Anomalies T4 Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies T5 Time-Longitude Sections Mean and Anomalous Sea Level Pressure T6 Mean and Anomalous 850-mb Zonal Wind T7 Mean and Anomalous OLR T8 Mean and Anomalous SST T9 Pentad SLP Anomalies T10 Pentad OLR Anomalies T11 Pentad 250-mb Velocity Potential Anomalies T12 Pentad 850-mb Zonal Wind Anomalies T13 Anomalous and Mean Depth of the 20C Isotherm T14 Anomalous and Total Oceanic Heat Storage T15 Mean & Anomaly Fields Depth of the 20C Isotherm T16 Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Temperatures T17 Tropical Strip SST T18 SLP T19 850-mb Vector Wind T20 200-mb Vector Wind T21 200-mb Streamfunction T22 200-mb Divergence T23 OLR T25 SSM/I Satellite Tropical Precipitation Estimates T26 Cloud Liquid Water T27 Vertically Integrated Water Vapor T28 Mean and Anomalous RH and Divergent Circ (Pac sector) T29 Mean and Anomalous RH and Divergent Circ (Atl sector) T 30 Mean and Anomalous Zonal Wind and Divergent Circ (W Pac sector) T31 Mean and Anomalous Zonal Wind and Divergent Circ (E Pac sector) T32 FORECAST FORUM Discussion Canonical Correlation Analysis Forecasts F1 - F2 Canonical Correlation Analysis SST anomaly prediction F1 Canonical Correlation ENSO Forecast F2 NCEP Coupled Model Forecasts F3 - F4 Forecast SST ANOMALY F3 Forecast SST NINO 3 and NINO 4 F4 Cane and Zebiak Model Forecasts Forecasts of NINO 3 Anomalies F5 Predicted SST Anomalies F6 LDEO3 Model Forecasts Forecasts of NINO 3 Anomalies F5 Predicted SST Anomalies F6 Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts Predicted SST Anomalies F9 Forecasts of NINO 3 Anomalies F10 Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model (HMC-3) Forecast F11 EXTRATROPICS Highlights Table of Teleconnection Indices-Part I Table E1 Table of Teleconnection Indices-Part II Table E2 Surface Temperature - Anomalies and Percentiles E1 Monthly Temperature Time Series E2 Surface Precipitation (CAMSOPI)- Anomaly and Percentiles E3 Time Series of U. S. Precipitation Estimates (CAMSOPI) E5 THESE TWO MAPS ARE NOT IN THE BULLETIN United States Surface Temperature - Anomalies and Percentiles United States Surface Precipitation - Total and Percentiles Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Maps Standardized Monthly Amplitudes of Selected Teleconnection Indices E6a Standardized Daily Amplitudes of Selected Teleconnection Indices E6b Mean and Anomalous SLP E7 Mean and Anomalous 500-mb heights E8 Mean and Anomalous 300-mb Wind Vectors E9 500-mb Persistence E10 Time -Longitude Sections of 500-mb Height Anomalies E11 700-mb Storm Track E12 Southern Hemisphere Mean and Anomalous SLP E13 Mean and Anomalous 500-mb heights E14 Mean and Anomalous 300-mb Wind Vectors E15 500-mb Persistence E16 Time -Longitude Sections of 500-mb Height Anomalies E17 NOAA/ National Weather Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Page last modified: August 24, 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ These bulletins have steadily evolved and the January 2019 bulletin looks like this: Disclaimer Information Quality Credits Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities To read the full bulletin - here's the link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/ Much more on ENSO to follow.
  3. ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION (AAO) Current daily forecast charts are available on the NOAA website. The previous 3 months are also shown on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml Mar 1st 2019 Monthly mean values from 1979 to date appear here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/month_aao_index.shtml AAO index 3 month running mean from Jan 1979 to Jan 2019
  4. PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) Current daily forecast charts are available on the NOAA website. The previous 3 months are also shown on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml Mar 1st 2019 Monthly mean values from 1950 to date appear here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_pna_index.shtml PNA index 3 month running mean from 1950 to 2018
  5. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) Current daily forecast charts are available on the NOAA website. The previous 3 months are also shown on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Mar 1st 2019 Monthly mean values from 1950 to date appear here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_nao_index.shtml NAO index 3 month running mean from Jan 1950 to Jan 2019
  6. EARTH GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM (GLAAM) ANOMALIES Earth GLAAM Anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual Earth GLAAM Anomalies from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Some earlier charts will be added in due course but please also refer to the other AAM and GLAAM sub-categories which are shown in the index under the GLAAM heading. Earlier charts will be added in due course.
  7. EARTH GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM (GLAAM) TENDENCY Earth GLAAM Tendency from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual Earth GLAAM Tendency from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Some earlier charts will be added in due course but please also refer to the other AAM and GLAAM sub-categories which are shown in the index under the GLAAM heading. Earlier charts will be added in due course.
  8. TOTAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM (GLAAM) Total GLAAM Anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Total GLAAM Anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual GLAAM Anomalies from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Some earlier charts will be added in due course but please also refer to the other AAM and GLAAM sub-categories which are shown in the index under the GLAAM heading.
  9. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM (AAM) TENDENCY AAM - Average Monthly Values from January 1958 to January 2019 Link to Date Text File: http://gsdmsolutions.com/~gsdm/clim/data/correlation/glaam.monthly.data Values in tabular format: 1958 0.18430E+26 0.74027E+25 0.29589E+25 -0.17875E+25 0.29607E+25 -0.71778E+25 -0.57559E+25 -0.14170E+26 -0.14651E+26 -0.11966E+26 -0.99770E+25 0.94274E+25 1959 0.54086E+25 -0.57656E+25 -0.12529E+26 -0.22566E+26 -0.60655E+25 -0.21511E+25 0.72099E+25 -0.78283E+25 -0.65784E+24 0.31729E+25 0.27208E+25 0.91798E+25 1960 0.72916E+23 -0.57800E+25 0.15363E+25 -0.64271E+25 -0.52101E+25 -0.16584E+26 -0.15812E+26 -0.14913E+26 -0.19512E+26 -0.61057E+25 -0.96827E+24 0.51870E+25 1961 -0.49969E+25 -0.11715E+26 -0.57512E+24 -0.19852E+26 -0.33537E+25 -0.11355E+25 0.44570E+25 0.71665E+25 -0.14112E+26 -0.12136E+26 -0.92024E+25 -0.38784E+24 1962 -0.65646E+25 -0.92663E+25 -0.69572E+25 -0.80674E+25 0.10041E+25 -0.12544E+26 -0.48838E+25 -0.11570E+26 -0.15797E+26 -0.11552E+26 -0.57839E+25 -0.47075E+25 1963 -0.23034E+26 -0.27099E+26 -0.18694E+26 -0.12462E+26 -0.51170E+25 -0.37934E+25 -0.62234E+25 0.59276E+25 0.51847E+24 -0.66120E+24 -0.82326E+24 0.69395E+24 1964 0.85674E+25 0.20948E+24 -0.58476E+25 -0.18432E+26 -0.61324E+25 -0.75782E+25 -0.14212E+26 -0.18991E+26 -0.22651E+26 -0.18308E+26 -0.98833E+25 -0.17564E+26 1965 -0.15571E+26 -0.16398E+26 -0.12124E+26 -0.18419E+26 -0.13379E+26 -0.99075E+25 -0.12831E+26 -0.86736E+25 -0.94748E+25 -0.95731E+25 -0.65053E+25 -0.12916E+26 1966 -0.33829E+25 -0.10508E+26 -0.13456E+26 -0.37923E+25 0.15131E+25 -0.86789E+25 -0.59279E+25 0.40438E+25 0.23492E+24 0.43318E+25 -0.31658E+25 -0.94946E+25 1967 -0.14177E+26 -0.10264E+26 -0.70499E+25 -0.99839E+25 -0.75196E+25 -0.14396E+26 -0.81070E+25 -0.91751E+25 -0.18237E+26 -0.17032E+26 -0.98955E+25 -0.17311E+25 1968 -0.16728E+26 0.11657E+25 -0.20175E+26 -0.30769E+25 -0.79195E+25 -0.77852E+25 -0.37604E+25 0.10452E+26 -0.19289E+25 -0.97640E+25 0.28124E+25 0.87038E+24 1969 0.21785E+25 0.11267E+26 0.15287E+26 0.77325E+25 0.51471E+25 0.66281E+25 0.45095E+25 -0.27373E+25 0.11904E+26 0.28795E+25 -0.17798E+25 -0.16382E+25 1970 0.13941E+26 0.10463E+26 0.51462E+25 -0.55421E+25 -0.12322E+26 -0.12912E+26 -0.14375E+26 -0.21458E+26 -0.22612E+26 -0.12636E+26 -0.28381E+25 -0.10061E+26 1971 -0.96431E+25 -0.23744E+26 -0.15466E+26 -0.13926E+26 -0.19211E+25 -0.64187E+25 -0.12614E+25 -0.28273E+25 -0.78674E+25 -0.32703E+25 0.34285E+25 -0.11061E+26 1972 -0.29073E+25 0.16291E+25 -0.14521E+25 -0.25705E+25 0.24333E+25 0.30181E+25 0.48507E+25 -0.42118E+25 -0.43640E+25 -0.13216E+26 -0.99500E+25 0.36881E+24 1973 -0.41667E+25 0.37329E+25 -0.45200E+25 -0.11546E+26 -0.70420E+25 -0.38382E+24 0.30494E+25 -0.29508E+24 -0.11707E+25 -0.80848E+25 0.50360E+24 -0.15740E+26 1974 -0.25758E+26 -0.24637E+26 -0.17638E+26 -0.14055E+26 -0.68433E+25 -0.75768E+25 -0.86251E+25 0.42622E+25 -0.15861E+26 -0.14277E+26 -0.42143E+25 -0.14167E+26 1975 -0.13871E+26 -0.61484E+25 -0.13532E+26 -0.16964E+26 -0.11337E+26 -0.99034E+25 -0.10686E+26 -0.63958E+25 -0.16039E+26 -0.49669E+25 -0.41223E+25 -0.12745E+26 1976 -0.12652E+26 -0.12567E+26 -0.25076E+25 -0.30808E+25 0.42924E+25 -0.86100E+25 0.19580E+25 -0.18824E+25 0.10833E+26 0.99297E+25 -0.67907E+25 -0.36487E+25 1977 -0.75712E+25 -0.20669E+26 -0.13948E+26 -0.10740E+26 -0.79202E+25 -0.13132E+26 -0.12380E+26 -0.12312E+26 0.73512E+24 -0.15464E+25 -0.12824E+25 0.12899E+26 1978 0.98550E+25 0.29601E+26 0.13128E+26 0.34753E+25 0.76503E+25 -0.60565E+25 -0.35534E+25 0.15914E+25 -0.57080E+25 -0.25492E+25 0.23268E+25 0.62441E+25 1979 0.19340E+26 0.55159E+25 0.37943E+25 0.83173E+25 0.90027E+25 0.41427E+25 0.72614E+25 0.11878E+26 -0.99250E+24 0.64046E+25 -0.76587E+25 0.10302E+25 1980 0.10629E+26 0.36853E+24 -0.53662E+25 -0.33780E+25 0.18915E+25 0.30161E+25 0.86330E+25 0.61613E+25 0.11316E+26 0.76725E+25 0.45312E+25 0.37654E+25 1981 -0.73601E+23 -0.49624E+25 0.13433E+26 0.88327E+25 0.59055E+25 0.10239E+26 -0.10029E+26 -0.27175E+23 -0.66023E+25 -0.31745E+25 -0.75792E+25 -0.25934E+25 1982 -0.66772E+25 -0.32342E+25 -0.69597E+25 0.46256E+25 0.54122E+25 0.16391E+26 0.12526E+26 0.64977E+25 0.16330E+26 0.65284E+25 0.12167E+26 0.20065E+26 1983 0.34911E+26 0.44270E+26 0.35559E+26 0.18672E+26 0.13084E+26 0.21468E+26 0.69496E+25 0.10181E+26 -0.34442E+25 -0.61971E+25 0.60642E+25 -0.53346E+25 1984 -0.22622E+26 -0.29097E+26 -0.17678E+26 -0.18053E+26 -0.16914E+26 -0.19846E+26 -0.19983E+26 -0.41186E+25 -0.46966E+25 -0.58131E+25 -0.86573E+25 -0.13200E+26 1985 -0.60622E+25 -0.14617E+26 0.45339E+25 -0.35602E+25 0.29094E+25 0.91770E+25 -0.46389E+25 -0.20237E+25 0.35679E+24 0.15049E+26 0.10812E+26 0.48013E+25 1986 -0.38690E+25 0.34748E+25 -0.17558E+26 -0.54113E+25 0.96466E+23 -0.84015E+25 0.33331E+25 0.33744E+25 0.19415E+25 0.66995E+25 -0.59095E+25 -0.43480E+25 1987 -0.45175E+25 0.44034E+25 0.11808E+26 -0.82351E+24 -0.27364E+25 0.97695E+25 0.10384E+26 0.12161E+26 0.20937E+26 0.16477E+26 0.14714E+26 0.14678E+26 1988 0.95663E+25 0.19337E+26 0.47315E+25 0.68372E+25 0.61207E+25 -0.48531E+25 -0.13507E+26 -0.13551E+26 -0.18624E+26 -0.73295E+25 -0.20669E+25 -0.17621E+26 1989 -0.16069E+26 -0.18819E+26 -0.16587E+26 -0.15766E+26 -0.75251E+25 -0.41466E+25 -0.21531E+25 0.93584E+24 -0.11630E+26 -0.15317E+25 0.97664E+25 0.43991E+25 1990 -0.47145E+25 0.19733E+26 0.10466E+26 0.83185E+25 0.19910E+25 0.93373E+25 0.62841E+25 0.16311E+26 0.59589E+25 0.68780E+25 0.48473E+25 0.16411E+25 1991 0.60541E+25 0.68699E+25 0.17683E+25 -0.29198E+25 -0.16001E+24 0.76646E+25 -0.22448E+25 -0.45351E+25 0.66888E+25 -0.16089E+26 -0.79715E+24 0.60761E+25 1992 0.13927E+26 0.11220E+26 0.19794E+26 0.14558E+26 0.34877E+25 0.23531E+25 -0.40356E+25 0.12976E+26 -0.74470E+24 0.80331E+24 0.78834E+24 0.10262E+26 1993 0.16797E+26 0.15900E+26 0.70247E+25 0.14600E+26 0.13526E+26 0.12166E+26 0.50108E+25 0.94429E+25 0.10898E+25 0.41671E+25 -0.10233E+25 -0.36107E+25 1994 -0.51841E+25 -0.45800E+25 -0.56239E+25 -0.93158E+25 -0.46102E+25 -0.13691E+26 -0.96494E+25 -0.10866E+26 0.50353E+25 -0.51179E+25 -0.60260E+25 0.10554E+26 1995 0.15043E+26 0.10686E+26 0.17077E+26 0.94637E+25 0.92502E+25 0.12662E+26 0.26801E+24 -0.19640E+25 0.52854E+25 -0.19999E+25 0.67730E+25 0.12541E+26 1996 -0.14410E+26 -0.13183E+26 -0.62186E+25 -0.10391E+26 -0.42590E+25 -0.25866E+25 -0.67311E+25 -0.14487E+26 -0.10275E+26 -0.85454E+25 -0.54474E+25 -0.14659E+25 1997 0.29579E+24 -0.10278E+26 0.21771E+26 0.15741E+26 0.16966E+26 0.17410E+26 0.17275E+26 0.24931E+26 0.25818E+26 0.22521E+26 0.19969E+26 0.72532E+25 1998 0.18074E+26 0.29444E+26 0.18992E+26 0.99689E+25 0.16192E+26 -0.94120E+25 -0.16888E+26 -0.14344E+26 -0.12107E+26 -0.48117E+25 0.54845E+25 -0.12108E+26 1999 -0.83032E+25 -0.44067E+25 -0.13832E+26 -0.86616E+25 -0.73859E+25 0.56619E+24 -0.63552E+25 0.11015E+25 -0.10137E+26 -0.59984E+25 0.20603E+25 -0.34977E+25 2000 -0.94765E+25 -0.15118E+26 -0.22675E+26 -0.20190E+26 -0.12000E+26 -0.13909E+26 -0.80165E+25 -0.32761E+25 -0.15126E+26 -0.75874E+25 -0.71123E+25 -0.47985E+25 2001 -0.19838E+26 -0.11556E+26 -0.65602E+25 -0.20407E+26 -0.51820E+25 -0.20078E+26 -0.78262E+25 -0.14342E+24 -0.12176E+26 0.20444E+24 0.13499E+25 0.11638E+26 2002 0.93093E+24 0.11140E+26 0.22686E+25 -0.92462E+25 0.75932E+25 -0.87072E+25 0.69154E+25 -0.63331E+24 -0.46950E+25 -0.29110E+25 -0.42960E+25 0.13589E+26 2003 0.75918E+25 0.26634E+25 0.12655E+25 -0.58479E+25 -0.54369E+25 -0.90932E+25 -0.74924E+25 0.23060E+25 -0.30479E+25 -0.23876E+25 -0.55358E+25 -0.66996E+25 2004 0.14030E+26 0.47426E+25 -0.27852E+24 0.15245E+25 0.31784E+25 -0.21091E+25 -0.39770E+25 0.11222E+26 -0.82935E+25 -0.20448E+25 0.42032E+25 0.47041E+25 2005 0.70837E+25 0.23789E+26 0.80157E+25 -0.45931E+25 -0.38393E+25 -0.99150E+25 -0.17796E+26 -0.95359E+25 -0.13429E+26 -0.18003E+26 -0.91254E+25 -0.11338E+26 2006 -0.13963E+26 0.37809E+25 -0.65608E+25 -0.88702E+25 0.10427E+25 -0.10534E+26 0.79182E+25 0.12346E+24 -0.28416E+25 0.33686E+25 -0.48134E+25 -0.40517E+25 2007 0.72534E+25 -0.22793E+25 -0.16018E+26 -0.76243E+25 -0.66323E+25 -0.12080E+26 -0.13603E+26 -0.30381E+26 -0.20249E+26 -0.24770E+26 -0.12515E+26 -0.14598E+26 2008 -0.54451E+25 -0.98093E+25 -0.20520E+26 -0.14698E+26 -0.41616E+25 -0.81512E+25 -0.34784E+25 -0.40928E+25 -0.17148E+25 -0.66463E+25 0.34751E+25 -0.33734E+25 2009 -0.12771E+26 -0.17521E+26 -0.76368E+25 -0.49999E+25 -0.72632E+24 0.34543E+25 -0.29842E+25 0.25781E+25 -0.35204E+25 -0.52940E+25 -0.44365E+25 0.31651E+25 2010 0.24272E+24 0.21636E+26 -0.16167E+24 0.53312E+25 0.95986E+24 -0.15413E+26 -0.22994E+26 -0.13300E+26 -0.18809E+26 -0.18271E+25 -0.28082E+25 -0.94042E+25 2011 -0.10686E+26 -0.69258E+25 -0.71375E+25 -0.10693E+26 0.26338E+25 -0.49115E+25 -0.98527E+25 -0.81767E+25 -0.31463E+25 -0.45178E+25 -0.32789E+25 -0.11241E+25 2012 0.25310E+25 -0.13259E+26 -0.84515E+25 -0.12457E+26 -0.14848E+26 -0.12047E+26 -0.13338E+26 -0.13500E+26 -0.86558E+25 -0.13817E+26 0.43556E+25 -0.59105E+25 2013 0.80438E+25 -0.21211E+25 0.13586E+26 0.49059E+25 0.23308E+25 -0.69669E+25 -0.75742E+25 -0.12792E+25 -0.13184E+25 -0.51955E+25 -0.30721E+25 0.25363E+25 2014 -0.94830E+24 -0.78930E+24 -0.12561E+25 -0.57587E+25 -0.22402E+25 -0.19838E+25 0.11132E+25 -0.93852E+25 -0.11387E+26 -0.83658E+25 -0.57938E+25 -0.32585E+25 2015 -0.71483E+25 -0.31981E+25 0.10911E+25 -0.10646E+26 0.43140E+24 -0.40460E+25 0.13993E+26 0.17202E+26 0.18875E+26 0.13946E+26 0.84550E+25 0.20278E+26 2016 0.34337E+26 0.14308E+26 0.24381E+26 0.68870E+25 0.12627E+26 -0.80408E+25 -0.88292E+25 -0.62322E+24 -0.73422E+25 0.34373E+25 0.92159E+25 0.12071E+25 2017 -0.24438E+25 0.45812E+24 -0.26939E+25 0.17592E+25 0.35144E+24 -0.65711E+25 -0.58257E+25 -0.13692E+26 -0.16567E+26 -0.12703E+26 -0.42110E+25 -0.21359E+25 2018 -0.19364E+26 0.28890E+25 -0.10377E+26 -0.10336E+26 -0.93265E+25 -0.12027E+26 -0.68509E+25 -0.37172E+25 -0.55783E+25 0.64586E+25 0.17680E+26 0.71056E+25 2019 0.15194E+26 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -0.99990E+02 -99.99 Annual Relative AAM Tendency from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Some earlier charts will be added in due course but please also refer to the other AAM and GLAAM sub-categories which are shown in the index under the GLAAM heading.
  10. CORIOLIS FORCE TORQUE Coriolis Torque anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual Coriolis Torque from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019
  11. GRAVITY WAVE DRAG TORQUE (GWD) GWD anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual GWD from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Earlier charts will be added in due course.
  12. MODEL REANALYSIS ARCHIVE CHARTS Daily archive charts since as early as January 1st 1871 have been reconstructed for the northern hemisphere. NCEP Reanalysis for Europe, UK and Northern Hemisphere - UK view/perspective: The NCEP archives include these charts: Geopotential z500 and pressure Temperature and flow 850 hPa Temperature 850 hPa and z1000-500 Jet Stream The Meteoceil (France) website shows the northern hemisphere view from a UK perspective for each of the four categories above and also close up charts of the UK, Europe and the North Atlantic for the same four categories. There is a 15 day view available with scrolling back and forth and daily charts at 0000 and 1200 GMT. There is also a year compare mode available for the entire period. The NCEP archives appear on this site: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep Here are a few examples from January 1st 1871 - the earliest date available: ECMWF Reanalysis for Europe, UK and Northern hemisphere - UK view/perspective: ECMWF have also produced a similar archive from January 1st 1979 to date with northern hemisphere and European views as well as single country views including the UK, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. They included additional data: Geopotential z500 and pressure Temperature and flow 850 hPa Temperature 850 hPa and z1000-500 Jet Stream Stratosphere temperature 10 hPa 2m surface temperatures 2m surface winds Rainfall and snow The ECMWF archives appear on this site (which has a direct cross-link to and from the NCEP site): http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=13&year=1987&map=5&type=era&region=uk You will notice that I set the chart for UK 2m temperatures on Jan 12th/13th 1987 which just happens to be the coldest day of the 20th century in much of southern England! Here it is: I believe that similar archives are available for North America and detail of these with links will be included here shortly. I'm not sure if any southern hemisphere reanalysis is available - I'll investigate. Link(s) to CONUS/N America reanalysis charts to follow soon
  13. MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) Weekly archive charts are available from Jan 9th 2006 to date on the NOAA website contained in their weekly MJO reports on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ARCHIVE/PDF/ These reports contain a lot of other MJO related data too such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies and Zonal Wind anomalies. We will add further MJO data and information here in due course, such as the VP200 archive charts.
  14. ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) Current daily forecast charts are available on the NOAA website. The previous 3 months are also shown on this link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Mar 1st 2019 Monthly mean values from 1950 to date appear here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table AO index 3 month running mean from 1950 to 2018
  15. FRICTIONAL TORQUE (FT) FT anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Annual FT from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Feb 27th 2019 Earlier charts will be added in due course.
  16. MOUNTAIN TORQUE (MT) MT anomalies from January 1958 to January 2019 Nov 17th 2010 Dec 24th 2012 Nov 1st 2013 Dec 22nd 2013 Apr 16th 2014 Dec 18th 2017 Feb 5th 2018 Mar 12th 2018 Apr 26th 2018 Jul 28th 2018 Aug 23rd 2018 Sep 11th 2018 Dec 15th 2018 Feb 27th 2019 Annual MT from Mar 2018 to Feb 2019 Further (future) charts will appear here every 3 months (or less) to provide continuity going forward. We will also try to fill in some more of the gaps in the archive.
  17. ARCHIVED CHARTS LIBRARY Please note that this archived charts library will evolve during the course of this year and we will be adding more topics as well as expanding on many of the existing topics – so please keep checking in. Introduction: Our small team who have been working on the Research Portal have been discussing various ways of expanding what it covers and add even more value to the service. Many of us who write specialist posts often wish to access archived charts to make comparisons with current output and forecasts. Many of these charts are not available in an archived format. Some sites that do have access to some of the old records are no longer updated and may close at any time in the future or have already closed with the data being lost. The purpose of this archived charts library is to provide access to this data. Some of it will simply be through a link to certain sites (such as some of the NOAA ENSO, MJO and Stratosphere records), some will be building up a comprehensive record of archived charts and some will involve both. Some charts (such as those for mountain torque) cover a 3 month period and (where available) 4 charts for each year may suffice. There will be many gaps which we hope to gradually fill in. Some historic information is simply not available. Trawling through past papers, presentations, archived threads and old posts from various forums and discussion groups as well as certain specialist meteorological websites, can often help to locate a few specific charts. Some data is behind a paywall. Sometimes the raw data is available but it would be very costly and time consuming to reproduce it. We are considering some of the options here and discussing this with the "33" forum administrators. If any member has access to particular archived data or access to some individual charts which will help us to fill in the gaps, then please PM any of our portal admin team with the links or the actual charts. Our team is currently (in alphabetical order): @Armando S (Armando), @Blessed Weather (Malcolm), @Bring Back 1962-63 (David) and @Snowy Hibbo (Zac). Each topic will appear on a separate page but as this library evolves, we shall see a good number of topics covered and some will be broken down into sub categories. These may not always be in the right order but there is a full index below. We will always welcome ideas, requests and feedback on our project at any time, particularly in this early development stage. Apart from PMing any of us, you can also use the Interactive Area in the Research Portal - just click on this link: Interactive Area for Members - Feedback and Comments Index to Archived Charts: This index will evolve steadily as we introduce new topics and sub categories. Some similar titles may appear more than once but will link to the same page. Just click on the link to the right of any title below for a direct link to the topic page: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=144643 Arctic Oscillation (AO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139639 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Coming soon Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141847 Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Coming soon Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) - see under Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM) Coriolis Force Torque https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=140598 East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Coming soon El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phases https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=143715 Frictional Torque (FT) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139619 Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM) - we have separated different types of AAM into the following categories: - Relative GLAAM - Annual https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139290 - Total GLAAM Anomalies https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141687 - Earth GLAAM Tendency https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141764 - Earth GLAAM Anomalies https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141771 - Relative AAM Tendency https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141651 Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139291 Gravity Wave Drag Torque (GWD) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=140593 Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=144699 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139661 Model Reanalysis Archive Charts https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139708 Mountain Torque (MT) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=139298 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141792 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=144639 Pacific North American (PNA) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=141841 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Coming soon Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-144630 Surface Temperatures (Land) https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=143797 Stratosphere https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1607-archived-charts-library/?do=findComment&comment=143502 More topics to follow If anyone wishes to discuss anything in this library, please do so in our Research Portal “Interactive Area”. Here’s the link: Interactive Area
  18. Seasonal sea ice forecast skills and predictability of the KMA's GloSea5 Authors: Byoung Woong An, Sang Min Lee, Pil-Hun Chang, KiRyong Kang, and Yoon Jae Kim First Published: 7th December, 2018 Abstract: Ensemble sea ice forecasts of the Arctic Ocean conducted with the Korea Meteorological Administration's coupled global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is verified. To investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the seasonal projection of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, a set of ensemble potential predictability is assessed. It shows significance for all lead months except anomalous around East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea during summer months. However, during the rapidly thawing and freezing season, initial states lose its predictability and increase uncertainties in the prediction. The probability skill metrics show the summer sea ice prediction which strongly depends on the sea ice thickness interacting with the accuracy of the snow depth. We found the forecast skill is determined primarily by the timing of sea ice drift (i.e., Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar drift) and sea ice formation by freshwater flux in the East Siberian Sea. Therefore, capturing the sea ice thickness state effectively is the key process for skillful estimation of Arctic sea ice. In spite of the uncertainties in atmospheric conditions, this system provides skillful Arctic seasonal sea ice extent predictions up to six months. Link to full paper: https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-217/tc-2018-217.pdf
  19. Spatial and temporal variations of global frictional torque during the period 1948–2011 Authors: He Gong, Mei Huang, Lin Zhu, Shengli Guo and Yaping Shao 4th March, 2016 First Published: 4th March, 2016 Abstract: Frictional torque is an important mean for momentum exchange between the atmosphere and earth, and significantly influences the variation in atmospheric angular momentum. Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1948–2011, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns of frictional torque. It was found that the globally integrated frictional torque turned from positive to negative in 1972, suggesting that angular momentum was transferred from the earth to the atmosphere before 1972, but from the atmosphere to the earth thereafter. The global frictional torque steadily declined from 1948 to 1994, but has been increasing since 1995. It was also found that the global frictional torque is mainly determined by the wind systems in the mid and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), where large changes in frictional torque occurred during the study period. Westerly wind increased continuously in the midlatitudes after 1948, while easterly wind decreased in the tropics of the SH after the 1980s. Link to full paper: The "Springer Link" access is behind a paywall but I found this link via the Chinese Meteorological Society: http://html.rhhz.net/qxxb_en/html/20160110.htm
  20. Review of Tropical‐Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales Authors: Cristiana Stan, David M. Straus, Jorgen S. Frederiksen, Hai Lin, Eric D. Maloney and Courtney Schumacher First Published: 12th September, 2017 Abstract: The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two‐way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical‐extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges. Link to full paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2016RG000538
  21. Dr. Yanai’s Contributions to the Discovery and Science of the MJO Authors: Eric D. Maloney and Chidong Zhang First Published: 5th May, 2016 Abstract: This chapter reviews Professor Michio Yanai’s contributions to the discovery and science of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Professor Yanai’s work on equatorial waves played an inspirational role in the MJO discovery by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. Professor Yanai also made direct and important contributions to MJO research. These research contributions include work on the vertically integrated moist static energy budget, cumulus momentum transport, eddy available potential energy and eddy kinetic energy budgets, and tropical–extratropical interactions. Finally, Professor Yanai left a legacy through his students, who continue to push the bounds of MJO research. Link to full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-15-0003.1
  22. Estimates of Atmospheric Angular Momentum, Friction, and Mountain Torques during 1987–1988 Authors: R. A. Madden and P. Speth First Published: 1st November, 1995 Abstract: Atmospheric angular momentum (M), friction (TF), and mountain torques (TM) are estimated from a 13-month period of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data. Cross-spectrum analysis between M and total torques results in high coherence and one-quarter cycle phase angles (TF + TM leading M) for timescales between 5 and 66 days, suggesting that variations of the total torque are reasonably well estimated for these slower variations. However, cross spectra between M and TF, and TM separately reveal that the relatively high coherence is present between M and TF only at periods longer than 20 days. Also comparison with other published values and the considerable lack of balance between TF + TM and M over a full year implies that our estimates of TF, based on the parameterization of surface wind stress in short-term forecasts of the ECMWF, are negatively biased. For the 13-month period, the average bias is about −15.2 Hadleys (1018 kg m2 s−2). During the period there are a few near 50-day oscillations in the M. Similar variations have been reported before and related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations of the same timescale. Two oscillations in M that are coincident with eastward-propagating cloud complexes of tropical intraseasonal oscillations are examined more closely. It is found that TF and TM work together to alter the M on the 50-day timescale, but that TM's contribution is three times larger than that of TF. During the two oscillations TF, reaches maxima when cloud complexes of tropical intraseasonal oscillations are in the vicinity of 90°E. It then declines but maintains positive anomalies at least until the cloud complexes reach the Central Pacific. The M reaches its maxima shortly thereafter. TM has sharp minima shortly before the cloud complexes are strongly developed in the Indian Ocean. Contributors to these minima are strong cast to west pressure gradients primarily across the Rocky Mountains. Link to full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<3681%3AEOAAMF>2.0.CO%3B2
  23. ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION I just produced a comprehensive update on the Arctic thread - here's the link: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1367-the-arctic-thread/?do=findComment&amp;comment=131043 This shows the current ice extent, 2m surface temps, SSTs and snow cover up there. Mixed news! There have been a number of comments on this and other threads as well as in our PM thread wrt to Arctic Amplification and whether it's partly responsible for interfering with some of the impacts that we might usually associate with the teleconnections and in response to a major SSW and periods of strong tropical forcing. Since last summer we have seen the El Nino struggling to establish itself with problems related to ocean/atmosphere coupling. Then this winter we have seen similar problems with troposphere/stratosphere coupling. There are now some more positive indications that HLB may start to prevail with another delayed Spring and generally colder conditions dominating for the the second half of February and well into March. We can monitor current developments in line with the teleconnections on this thread. Once this winter and any SSW impacts are over we can go through many of the factors that have confounded the experts, the pros, the specialists and longer range forecasters. While we can examine the teleconnections on here, I also plan to take one aspect of it , "Arctic Amplification" and encourage some specialist posts on the Arctic thread. Just to whet a few appetites, I'll refer to several papers that Malcolm (@Blessed Weather) and I placed into the research portal this week. The first two are very recent papers (published in January 2019) - one dealing with SSW down welling issues and the other on impacts of the QBO on the N hem winter circulation. I do not have time to review these papers now. The Corresponding Tropospheric Environments during Downward-extending and Non-downward-extending Events of Stratospheric Northern Annular Mode Anomalies Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation The next two papers are directly related to Arctic Amplification. The first one is an excellent paper by Judah Cohen - I'll leave that to Malcolm to review that one - he may wait until the winter is over and the "AA" debate begins. I shall review the second paper briefly now. An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on mid-latitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification The urgency of Arctic change This climate change paper was published in "ScienceDirect" last November and was jointly produced by a number of leading scientists from various organisations. I am always wary of any misrepresented facts and claims on this subject but this one is a balanced paper, albeit with some worrying conclusions. Part of it is completely relevant in terms of how Arctic Amplification and ice loss are already impacting on global atmospheric patterns. Here's the abstract: This article provides a synthesis of the latest observational trends and projections for the future of the Arctic. First, the Arctic is already changing rapidly as a result of climate change. Contemporary warm Arctic temperatures and large sea ice deficits (75% volume loss) demonstrate climate states outside of previous experience. Modeled changes of the Arctic cryosphere demonstrate that even limiting global temperature increases to near 2 °C will leave the Arctic a much different environment by mid-century with less snow and sea ice, melted permafrost, altered ecosystems, and a projected annual mean Arctic temperature increase of +4 °C. Second, even under ambitious emission reduction scenarios, high-latitude land ice melt, including Greenland, are foreseen to continue due to internal lags, leading to accelerating global sea level rise throughout the century. Third, future Arctic changes may in turn impact lower latitudes through tundra greenhouse gas release and shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Arctic-specific radiative and heat storage feedbacks may become an obstacle to achieving a stabilized global climate. In light of these trends, the precautionary principle calls for early adaptation and mitigation actions. The part that interests me is contained in these two sections (quoted in full below): 4.1. Patterns of atmospheric circulation Shifts in Arctic sea ice and snow cover and increased surface temperatures are warming the lower atmosphere in the Arctic, which decreases air density and north-south horizontal pressure gradients and thus influences wind patterns and the jet stream. There is evidence for regional Arctic/midlatitude weather connections from Barents-Kara sea ice loss and cold air outbreaks into eastern Asia (Wu et al., 2011; Kim et al., 2014; Kretschmer et al., 2016). Although there have been extensive new sea-ice-free areas in all years of the past decade, latitude and longitudinal phasing of the tropospheric jet stream pattern have not been conducive for North American midlatitude weather linkages in most years (Kug et al., 2015; Ayarzagüena and Screen, 2016; Ballinger et al., 2017; Chen and Luo, 2017; Cvijanovic et al., 2017; Overland and Wang, 2018), indicating the importance of internal variability and other forcings such as midlatitude and equatorial sea surface temperatures. Despite a growing literature (Cohen et al., 2018; Vavrus, 2018), there is little consensus on the topic in the scientific community (Wallace et al., 2014; Barnes and Screen, 2015; McCusker et al., 2016). At present what we can say is that global forcing from the Arctic (sea ice loss, increased temperatures, and moisture) will continue to increase. There is case study evidence that multiple linkage mechanisms are regional, episodic, and based on amplification of existing jet stream wave patterns (Overland et al., 2014; Cohen et al., 2018). 4.2. Atlantic Ocean circulation There is a hypothesis for future impact of Arctic change on ocean circulation in the North Atlantic due to the accumulation of freshwater in the Arctic (Prowse et al., 2015; Carmack et al., 2016; Marnela et al., 2016; Rudels, 2016; Yang et al., 2016). There is paleoclimate data that show large changes to Atlantic Ocean circulation patterns. This topic is controversial as some current literature suggests weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) related to Arctic warming (Sévellec et al., 2017), while other work shows that the Arctic component of AMOC did not weaken during the last two decades of Arctic change (Jochumsen et al., 2017). Rather than react to this paper's climate change statements and possible predictions for the middle of this century and beyond, I feel that we should focus on the impacts that we have already seen and how and to what extent these are influencing, dominating or over riding some of the key teleconnections. We have a number of other papers already in the portal under the Arctic Amplification heading and we have many more to add. Some of these are factual and uncontroversial. I hope that when we get the debate going that we can discuss these and other related facts and, to a certain extent, put our personal opinions to one side to enable us to make a balanced assessment. More on this in a few weeks time. David
  24. GENERAL ARCTIC UPDATE I had been hoping to spend more time on this thread but I have had various business commitments which have reduced my overall weather time and only some of this can be here on the Arctic thread. I was hoping that a few more members would get involved on this thread. During the Spring, I intend to start a debate on here wrt to Arctic Amplification and the extent of its influence on both the tropospheric and stratospheric patterns. I have a number of key papers to review on this fascinating and highly important subject. In the meantime, this post will provide a long overdue update on current Arctic ice extent, surface temperatures, SSTs and snow cover. I do not have time to produce a long report but I'll make brief comments below each chart. Please note that some of the regular charts are not available at the time of this report (for various reasons, including the past shutdown access problems) but I found acceptable substitutes. Current ice extent is running well below the 1981-2010 30 year mean (more later). The large beige area (which includes the area around the pole that is not showing up properly on this chart) has the thickest ice - over 50 cms. 2018-19 ice extent is running well below quartile mean and slightly below the decadal mean (more later). It is currently around the 4th lowest on record for early February. This charts shows the ice extent for each January since the start of the satellite recording era in 1979. 2019 is well above the last 2 Januarys. Just above 2004, slightly below the current decadal average and well below the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s decadal means. This chart is from the excellent Zach Labe website (all links are shown in my introductory post to this thread). Zach is expanding his site steadily and it's well worth a visit. Arctic surface temps have been generally lower than in the last few years (more below). In fact January 2019 finished well below the 30 year mean with overall Arctic Ocean 2m surface temps nearly 1c below and the whole Arctic region (north of 66N) just over 1c below. This month to date sees the region continuing over 1c below the 30 year mean, although the ocean 2m temps are only slightly below the mean. In fact January 2019 is ranked the 17th coldest out of all 40 Januarys and the coldest since 2004 in stark contrast to some recent years. It is easy to see why the ice extent is struggling to expand despite the below average 2m temps. The white area is the ice sheet and the SSTs quickly rise to 3c to 5c just beyond it. Nevertheless, should the temps continue to be near to or below the 30 year mean, then further reasonable ice expansion is probable during February and into March. Further good news is that the SST anomalies in the open waters are generally running at 1c to 3c above the "1971-2000" 30 year mean (which would be even closer to the 1981-2010 mean - not used by ClimateReanalyzer). The last 3 winters saw wide areas over 4c above the mean and some spots nearer 6c to 8c above. So, 2018/19 SST anomalies are trending down from their extremely high levels - a long term legacy from the 2015 super El Nino. The full access to the NOAA snow data is not available but I obtained this N Hem comparison chart. Snow cover is currently running at a similar level to this time last year and around the longer term mean. Slightly below in CONUS and very slightly above in central Asia. The snow extent increased markedly through March 2018 to substantially above average following the SSW impacts then. Will we see a repeat this year? Overall, it is mixed news but with lower 2m surface temps persisting, we may see a late winter ice extent recovery. I'll finish by quoting part of the latest NSIDC monthly report which was published this Tuesday and the comments relate to the position on 31st January 2019: In January 2019, a pattern of high-altitude winds in the Arctic, better known as the polar vortex, weakened, sweeping frigid air over North America and Europe in the second half of the month. Arctic sea ice extent remained well below average, but temperatures in the far north were closer to average than in past years. Arctic sea ice extent for January averaged 13.56 million square kilometers (5.24 million square miles). This was 860,000 square kilometers (332,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average sea ice extent, and 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) above the record low for the month set in January 2018. January 2019 was the sixth lowest January extent in the 1979 to 2019 satellite record. The average rate of daily ice growth of 51,200 square kilometers (19,800 square miles) was faster than the long-term average. Ice growth primarily occurred in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk in the Pacific sector as well as in the Labrador and Kara Seas. Some ice spread to the northeast of Svalbard, while retreating slightly to the northwest of these islands. Total ice extent was tracking at eighth lowest on January 31, with below average extent in nearly all sectors of the Arctic. Here's the link to the full report and a load more data: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ I'll produce another update next month. David
  25. The urgency of Arctic change Authors: James Overland, Edward Dunlea, Jason E.Box, Robert Corell, Martin Forsius, Vladimir Kattsov, Morten Skovg ård Olsen, Janet Pawlak, Lars-OttoReiersen and MuyinWang Published: November 27th, 2018 Abstract: This article provides a synthesis of the latest observational trends and projections for the future of the Arctic. First, the Arctic is already changing rapidly as a result of climate change. Contemporary warm Arctic temperatures and large sea ice deficits (75% volume loss) demonstrate climate states outside of previous experience. Modeled changes of the Arctic cryosphere demonstrate that even limiting global temperature increases to near 2 °C will leave the Arctic a much different environment by mid-century with less snow and sea ice, melted permafrost, altered ecosystems, and a projected annual mean Arctic temperature increase of +4 °C. Second, even under ambitious emission reduction scenarios, high-latitude land ice melt, including Greenland, are foreseen to continue due to internal lags, leading to accelerating global sea level rise throughout the century. Third, future Arctic changes may in turn impact lower latitudes through tundra greenhouse gas release and shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Arctic-specific radiative and heat storage feedbacks may become an obstacle to achieving a stabilized global climate. In light of these trends, the precautionary principle calls for early adaptation and mitigation actions. Link to full paper (on the "ScienceDirect" website): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965218301543?via%3Dihub Link to pdf early manuscript version of the paper: https://ac.els-cdn.com/S1873965218301543/1-s2.0-S1873965218301543-main.pdf?_tid=9ec55a0a-269b-4468-a4cc-531cf64a8ce5&amp;acdnat=1549639446_79edbe550be051725ffca5149afc40c3
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