mbaer1970 - 33andrain Jump to content


Senior Wx Expert
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About mbaer1970

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  • Birthday 08/07/1970

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    Silver Springs Township, Cumberland County PA I-81 corridor

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  1. A -EPO and neutral PNA is of course a good state to be in if we want to see winter go out with a bang, but it looks like the AO and NAO may struggle to get to neutral, so the teleconnection coupling is not there, yet. Now I have seen posts and heard talk of a Global Planetary Wave setting up, could this coupled with the neutral/positive PNA/negative EPO create a setup for a potential MECS without a favorable AO and NAO?
  2. Has to be close to S++ here and damn near if not whiteout conditions.
  3. The 850's that I am seeing on the HRRR and 3km NAM, coupled with the 2m temp and dew point temps leads me to believe that many areas in Pennsylvania may stay all snow throughout this event.
  4. Temp down to 26° with very heavy snow here, approaching 3". That sound is not sleet, just the sound from the intensity of the snow rate.
  5. I am hearing reports of Thundersnow in the area of Greencastle, Pennsylvania.
  6. Silver Spring Township, Cumberland county, PA. 27° w/ S+ Started snowing around 7:30 am and picked up in intensity pretty fast.
  7. I believe that areas north of I-70 from central MD into PA may not get above freezing through the entire event, also last I looked this morning the 700 and 850 temps look like they may be below freezing most of the event as well, especially into central PA. 8"-10" snow/sleet totals may be reached in across central PA.
  8. Another slop storm, but at least some snow will fall.
  9. This is what says: FAQS REGARDING THE USAGE OF ECMWF MAPS AND GRAPHICS Recently, ECMWF has sent out a clarification of their Standard License Agreement to its customers, that some may have not understood in this way beforehand. is about transparency and fairness, so we decided to make this Guideline page that informs our users exactly about the allowed usage of ECMWF maps and products, that they can buy through our subscriptions. is a maximum charge customer of ECMWF data and does process this data to create maps and graphics (so-called Value-Added-Services (VAS)) for its customers. ECMWF does regard any next tier of customers of their Licensees as so-called End users (that is you, if you have a subscription with us). This holds true not only for, but for any other outlet as well that provides ECMWF maps, charts and other ECMWF based Value-Added-Services. That means, you don’t get any more rights to use ECMWF data if you choose to buy a subscription somewhere else. You would only get more usage rights of ECMWF data if you would be buying directly from ECMWF itself. Can I share ECMWF model maps on the internet? ECMWF generally prohibits End users(people that are not direct customers of ECMWF, meaning you) to broadcast their products or maps created based on their products - this includes Social Media. However, ECMWF allows the unrestricted use, including commercial use, and sharing of their “WMO Essentials”, you can find these products here Thus, our weathermodels maps based on these parameters can be shared without restriction by ECWMF, but please make sure, you don’t exceed the maximum sharing for your weathermodels subscription type. Can I share other model maps based on other weather models (ICON, GFS, etc.) from on the internet? Yes, you can. Could just pay more and buy a bigger license from ECMWF, so they could provide their customers the right to broadcast ECMWF maps? We tried that. There is no such license to buy. Everyone, who wants to broadcast ECMWF products or graphics and other Value-Added-Services (VAS) made on basis of ECMWF data has to purchase a broadcast licence separately with ECMWF. Again, this holds true not only for, but for any other outlet as well that provides ECMWF maps, charts and other ECMWF based Value-Added-Services. Can I just cancel my subscription and go to another outlet, because they allow to share ECMWF maps? No other outlet is allowed to grant any rights to its customers beyond those defined in the ECMWF Standard Licence Agreement, meaning they have to follow the same rules as we do, which are the ones you can find on this guideline page and within our TOS. Can I use ECMWF model maps from for my internal commercial purposes? Yes, you can, if you have bought a commercial license (commercial account type) from us. Can I use other model maps (ICON, GFS, etc.) from for my commercial purposes? Yes, you can if you have bought a commercial license (commercial account type) from us. ECMWF has general guidelines for their licensees ( written down here: November, 2nd 2018
  10. I believe subscriptions may be tagged in such a way that they know what is shared?
  11. Per the EPS 45 day, wintry weather keeps going well into March here in central PA.
  12. The latest run of the FV3 teleconnections in my opinion looks to be reacting to the SOI drop and MJO activity. The FV3 500 height anomaly between day 8 (2/20) and 16 (2/28) looks like it could be quite interesting.
  13. Could this be the cattle prod that kick starts a big end to winter over the eastern US? Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.02 I would have posted this in the Teleconnection Forum, but I was unable to.
  14. mbaer1970

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Sleetmagedon 2019