mbaer1970

Is it just me or did the 00z GFS look better beyond Nov 26th where at least interior ( N&W of I-95 snowfall is concerned?

I will say that my confidence level is now very low where any snow events are concerned for the Upper-Mid Atlantic through December 1st. Things may start to improve the latter half of the first week of December once we're into Phase 7, as Phase 5 & 6 at this juncture will not support winter storms of any level. If something does pop it will have to be a perfectly timed thread the needle event.

I'm not sure if this was posted already and I am sorry for reposting it if it was, but this in my opinion is massive.

Did the Nov 23rd-24th period system get some legs back over night on the ensemble and even 12km NAM upper-air guidance, or am I just seeing things?

#JoeRenken

The WPO has a big background influence on the EPO. If the EPO is in a positive state with a negative WPO, the EPO won't be positive for long.

I agree, I remember 1995-96 quite well, was 15 and made a good bit of money shoveling that winter.

I've never thrown together so many different blends. It may seem that I'm grasping at straws, but I wanted to try to get as many perspectives as I could using all aspects of my analysis.

LOL, You ain't kidding!!!

My DJF full analog and top analog looks...

My November 2021 to April 2022 top analog years month by month...

My November 2021 to April 2022 month by month full analog package...

FWIW here is my full analog package, as well as my top analog years composite for November 2021 to April 2022. I analyzed Indian Ocean Dipole data, as well as the IOD/La Nina correlation, QBO, PDO, AMO, PMM, ENSO/ONI, Solar, October Strat Warm data, PMM, and SOI correlations.

It is my opinion that John Kassell & Scott Sabol know their stuff, so this is massive in my opinion.