mbaer1970

I have to admit that this is the first time in a long time that I have been concerned about a potential severe weather outbreak here in Central PA and I am with you on the idea that we could see a bump up to Moderate Risk over central/southern PA.

That sounding is not far off from my area, I'm at 40.27, -77.03 and I've had PDS Tor Hzd showing for between 2000 and 0000 UTC for the last day and a half. Good post by the way!

This is a pretty aggressive move for the SPC to put out a day 3 slight risk for the upper Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I am a bit skeptical of the NAM and 3km NAM upper air soundings, as I have recently learned how to detect contamination within the omega, moisture profile, and eff inflow layer, but still am learning. This is a NAM sounding for my area @ 21UTC on 5/23, which has contamination signs within the omega parameter, with the bars shooting off to the right on both the Pivotal 3km and C.O.D. 3km NAM. If there is anyone on the sight that can better explain this topic, please do.

Tornado Warning for York County, Pennsylvania.

21z RAP for same hour and location, with no contamination showing.

Vertical motion is showing and the SFC CAP is strong, but if that CAP can get blown off, wouldn't this hazard be possible?

21z HRRR for my area tonight @ 00z, thoughts on its legitimacy??

12Z NAM and 3km NAM soundings for my location in Cumberland County, PA for tonight. I believe that these are overdone, at least I hope they are. The RAP and GFS sounding parameters are impressive, but not to the degree that the NAM and 3km NAM are.

Yeah, my bad.

The SigSvr, Supercell, STP, SHIP, EHI, BRN, and SRH parameter values are Midwest like for sure, this is just east of Moore, Oklahoma, so let's hope it doesn't verify.

The forecasted low temp for my area tonight is 35°, if the clouds don't clear out it might not make it that low. I hope it doesn't, because I'm done with frost and winter.

Umm, okay, I know this most likely won't verify for my area, but it is a good indication that it is going to be a rough Sunday night and early Monday morning for many areas of the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

From the looks of it, we surely are in for a rough night and early Monday morning, but I hope this is overdone.

Discussion focused around the severe weather threat for April 14th-15th, 2019.