mbaer1970

1.55" here in Silver Spring Township, Cumberland County, PA and currently 74f.

Snowman11, how did you get the Super Weenie tag, how do you rate.....LOL I'm gonna buck for this....

We should have a winter storm rating that follows a 5 weenie rating scale.

Can I get a Wennie with chili and provolone on it, oh and can you cook me up a massive pot of meatballs while you're at it....LOL

", and this by no means says it will verify," <----------- Implies, to take it with a grain of salt, and I am more than aware of what happened last year. I also know that the things that threw a wrench into last winter are not in place this year and that the setup going into this winter is much different, yes there are still some questions regarding this winters outcome, but overall we are in much better shape compared to last year.

The one thing that I've noticed, and this by no means says it will verify, but the EPS 45 day snowfall guidance has a large number of its members lining up really well with the control, in regards to seasonaly significant snow totals during this period.

Late January through mid-March looks to be shaping up as winter 2019-20's sweetspot.

Good point MJOP8! From what I've read about the QBO, the -QBO typically favors -NAO and that stalls, neutral trends and before or after a transitional (gradual: falling-rising-neutral) period, as well as the time between -10.0 & +10.0 can be periods that could produce significant snow storms, where winter 2019-20 is concerned, I've looked at weak El Nino/neutral years with similar Solar Cycle periods and found 1977-78, 1993-94, 1959-60 matching the best, with 1960-61 being a winter that held neutral coming off neutral conditions, 1995-96 is another intriguing year, but had it had more of a La Nina state. "IF" we hold between a weak El Nino/Modoki El Nino and neutral ENSO conditions, this coupled with what looks like a +PDO state developing and the low, pushing grand minimum solar activity, and a what could be a favorable QBO fluctuation I am potentially seeing much above normal snowfall for my region ( I-81 corridor in Central PA, as well as many interior areas of the upper-Mid Atlantic and Northeast). I'm going with potentially 62.5" of snowfall for the Harrisburg, PA region. I'm thinking that the upper-Mid Atlantic and Northeast could be in store for what could be a very unique winter 2019-20 and that many areas could end up with NDJFM snowfall totals that rival and challenge top 5 totals. I am not saying this because I am a "weenie" who wants an epic winter, but based on my analysis of ONI/ENSO, Solar, and PDO data. I also know that there are other things that factor into outlooks, but wanted to try to take a stab at it. I am also up for critique and am always looking to learn more.

LOL, why's is Judah only listed as an Enthusiast, me thinks he's just a wee bit more than an Enthusiast.

I was only expecting between .50" to maybe 1.00" of rain, but it poured for quite awhile today and I ended up picking up almost 1.50". I'm in Silver Spring Township, Cumberland County, PA.

This is just my opinion, based on my analysis of GFS and ECMWF ensemble products, but folks in the upper-mid Atlantic and Northeast, especially coastal areas from Virginia, NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Southeast New England better take this Wednesday-Thursday, October 16th-17th storm seriously. The European Ensemble is not painting a good outcome. If it verifies to its current guidance, there could be some potentially dangerous coastal flooding, along with wind damage, and possible flooding rains.

I don't know if I'm gunshy from last winter, but I'm feeling a little sketchy about this winter. I believe that it will surely have it's stretches where it delivers for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but there is something about how ENSO is developing that has me wondering if we won't see a repeat of winter 2018-19.

I am only posting this for trend analysis purposes, but if the pattern flips like this in early November, it will surely get the attention of the entire nation, especially the eastern half, also even though there looks to be a ridge building east at the end of the run, the temps at the surface under that ridge are cold.

I am trying to envision Walker circulations for each of these months, as well as potential Qbo fluctuations, LOL am I thinking to much?? To me there are signs of a El Nino Modoki, but with swings in the Walker circulation, also am I correct in saying that you can look at the Velocity potential anomalies in terms of areas of high and low pressure?

In light of the signs pointing toward an El Nino Modoki, how do you see it coming into play where your Qbo analog years are concerned?