mbaer1970

Doesn't the EPS usually like to bring down a trough and then dump it into the Southwest?

In my opinion I don't believe that this is so fantasy land eye candy as some may call it, as I believe that the sloshiness over the Pacific will be sorted out by Dec 22nd, with the WPO and EPO making negative dives (EPS-GEFS), a positive PNA, and an AO and NAO that I believe are poised to react to the upstream adjustments and move into better negative positions.

Wouldn't this cause the European guidance on a whole to muck up the pattern upstream over the Pacific and in turn over North America? I read your post to fast, just saw the forcing reference, so that pretty much answers my question...I'm half asleep..lol

I have heard that the WPO in regards to importance does not really factor into the pattern over North American as the EPO, PNA, AO, and NAO do, but I have been watching the WPO trend over the past few weeks and now believe that its current run towards neutral territory may be a sign that the pattern upstream in the Pacific is sorting itself out. I expect to see the WPO continue to dive into negative territory that will go a long way to potentially locking in a very wintery pattern over the Eastern US from mid-January into mid-March. I realize that there is probably something that I could read up on in the Teleconnection thread that is related to this, but I like to analyze stuff like this from a raw non-scientific approach.

The EPS and GEFS teles are both pointing towards this as well.

21z NMB, for what its worth.

Just my opinion, but unless I am missing something the SREF looks like it is showing more room for this to come further north.

I typically don't side with the CFS, but I've been watching it's trend along with the FV3 and ECMWF teles and believe that it is onto something.

Oh my...

I remember Jan 6th-8th 1996 quite well, as I live in central PA and lived in Chambersburg then, we got 32" from that beast.

May be fantasy land, but the EPS 46 is looking mighty promising after New Years day.

The snow ten days later folklore, would put it near Christmas....hmmm

There "could" be a strong-severe thunderstorm threat to the east of a track like that.

Now we analyze the pattern evolution and trend. I'm personally liking the periods after Jan 10th, specifically between Jan 13th-16th when I believe the pattern will be more conducive of producing the first potential "BIG ONE" for the upper-mid Atlantic and Northeast.