mbaer1970

Umm, okay, I know this most likely won't verify for my area, but it is a good indication that it is going to be a rough Sunday night and early Monday morning for many areas of the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

From the looks of it, we surely are in for a rough night and early Monday morning, but I hope this is overdone.

Discussion focused around the severe weather threat for April 14th-15th, 2019.

Quite an interesting look to the mesoscale upper air soundings showing for areas across much of the eastern US between 00z - 09z Monday morning. RAP guidance does have some earlier activity over my part of central PA between 18z-21z.

Now that's what I call a flip 24.37 down to -23.80 in 4 days, almost a 50.00 point flip.

Maybe a high shear/low cape setup?

Hmm, didn't know that the NWS did this, thank you for the information. I am surprised that it hasn't been pulled from TT, PW, and sites like Weathermodels.com, as it doesn't look like the FV3 testing won't be completed until late 2020.

Does the Weathermodels.com FV3 have the same issue?

Today's 06z FV3 surface view, unless I am missing something, I don't know how the FV3 is printing out that much snowfall with the 2m and 850 temps that it's 06z guidance is showing.

As I mentioned in a previous post the ECMWF and EPS have had the April 15th-16th signal to some degree for 3-4 days now, but the difference between them and the FV3 is that they are not as cold at the surface and 850 as the FV3 is, which means less wintry precip, this is why I don't buy the FV3.

I'm not setting myself up for disappointment, it's just weather and if you allow a busted potential to disappoint you, maybe you should step back and focus on things that make you happy, it would be nothing but another learning experience for me, also we are in a much different setup than we had when all of those potentials flopped.

Per the 00z FV3 areas northwest of I-95 near the I-81 corridor in PA, northern areas of NJ (Newton/Paterson), southern district of NY (Poughkeepsie/Newburgh), as well as western PA, WVA, Eastern Ohio would see 6"-10" of snow, but like I said I am not buying the FV3.