mbaer1970

I am by no means calling for a March 1993 like storm, but I am intrigued by the similarities between the March 93 GFS MJO analog and the current GFS MJO forecast.

LOL That sounds like a Magic 8 ball answer.

The most recent 00z ECMWF and Canadian ensemble member wise-minimum mslp for Feb 28th...

Stronger convection pushing to and east of dateline, also has the look of a very juicy sub-tropical jet. FWIW and I understand that this is a large grain of salt model, but the CFS ensemble MJO is forecasted to move through favorable FMA phases, so this velocity potential forecast may not be a stretch.

Just my two cents, but where the upper-Mid Atlantic's (south of PA I-80 into central VA) chances for snow are concerned I am seeing the periods around Feb 21st-25th and March 3rd-10th as being the best.

Just for kicks, the CFS ENS MJO and Teleconnections line up with it's 500 Mb and surface maps to produce what "could" be a pretty epic system around March 8th-9th. I know it's the CFS, but at least it's showing a storm potential.

Thoughts on this, does this solution hold any weight??

The 18z NAM says...

The 18z GFS may not be such a stretch. I've learned that if the GFS is showing something like this and the ECMWF or ECMWF ENSEMBLE is not, then the GFS solution is unlikely, but in this case the EPS mean, as well as numerous of the 50 ensemble members are echoing the 18z GFS solution.

LOL imagine if this would verify, we'd either be filling sandbags for weeks or shoveling till May...

I know someone else on the Forum probably has said this, but in my opinion the Feb 9th system really needs watched. That negative east of Hawaii tells me that negative over the SW US may me modeled weaker over the next few days, which could allow the ridge to build toward the west coast, allowing the PNA to at least push to neutral or even slightly positive territory, this would greatly impact the trough depth and position in the eastern US, which would yield the track showing on the Min MSLP and many of the ensemble members, also if my interpretation of the Strat Observe guidance is correct I wouldn't be surprised to see either a stretched or even split PV around Feb 16th-19th that could potentially drop a lobe over Hudson Bay.

January 2016 was one of them.

There have been some decent snowstorms when the MJO was in the COD. I believe that the Jan 2016 storm was a COD storm?