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Found 13 results

  1. Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability Authors: S. M. Osprey and M. H. P. Ambaum Published online: 3rd August, 2011 Abstract: Exponential spectra are found to characterize variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) for periods less than 36 days. This corresponds to the observed rounding of the autocorrelation function at lags of a few days. The characteristic persistence timescales during winter and summer is found to be ∼5 days for these high frequencies. Beyond periods of 36 days the characteristic decorrelation ti
  2. On the Linearity of the Stratospheric and Euro-Atlantic Sector Response to ENSO Authors: Paloma Trascasa-Castro, Yu Yeung Scott YiuD and Jennifer K. Fletcher Published: 6th September, 2019 Abstract: The dependence of the winter stratospheric and Euro-Atlantic climate response on ENSO amplitude is investigated using the HadGEM3 model. Experiments are performed with imposed east Pacific sea surface temperature perturbations corresponding to Niño-3.4 anomalies of ±0.75, 1.5, 2.25, and 3.0 K. In the North Pacific, El Niño (EN) deepens and shifts the Aleu
  3. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere Authors: Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Jeff R. Knight, James C. Manners, Nick J. Dunstone, Lesley J. Gray and Joanna D. Haigh First Published: 9th October, 2011 Abstract: An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase
  4. Relationship between Tropical Pacific SST and global atmospheric angular momentum in coupled models Authors: Huei−Ping Huang, Matthew Newman, Richard Seager, Yochanan Kushnir and Participating CMIP2+ Modeling Groups First Published: January 2004 Abstract: The sensitivity parameter S1 = ∆AAM/∆SST, where ∆AAM and ∆SST represent the anomalies of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the NINO3.4 region, is compared for the CMIP2+ coupled models. The parameter quantifies the strength o
  5. Centennial Trend and Decadal-to-Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Angular Momentum in CMIP3 and CMIP5 Simulations Authors: Houk Paek and Huei-Ping Huang First Published: 26th November, 2012 Published on line: 31st May, 2013 Abstract: The climatology and trend of atmospheric angular momentum from the phase 3 and the phase 5 Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively) simulations are diagnosed and validated with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). It is found that CMIP5 models produced a signif
  6. Near-term Climate Predictions of the North Atlantic Region - YouTube Presentation Presenters/Authors: Dr. Nick Dunstone, Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, Leon Hermanson, Rosie Eade, Niall Robinson, Martin Andrews and Jeff Knight Presentation Team from: The UK Met Office, Hadley Centre Presentation Date: 6th April, 2017 (at St Andrews, Scotland) Abstract: None (but see below) Link to full YouTube presentation (57 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jfKr6oRnn2k This brilliant "balanced" present
  7. How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere Authors: Daniela I. V. Domeisena, Gualtiero Badin and Inga M. Koszalka Published: 18th January, 2018 Abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing s
  8. A real-time Global Warming Index Authors: Dr. K. Haustein, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E. L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews and D. J. Frame Published: 13th November, 2017 Abstract: We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arisi
  9. The South Pacific Meridional Mode: A Mechanism for ENSO-like Variability Authors: Honghai Zhang, Amy Clement and Pedro Di Nezio Published: 9th July, 2013 Abstract: In this study, the authors investigate the connection between the South Pacific atmospheric variability and the tropical Pacific climate in models of different degrees of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. A robust mode of variability, defined as the South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM), is identified in a multimodel ensemble of climate model experiments where the atmosphere is
  10. The Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to ENSO: How Well Do We Know It and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly? Authors: Clara Deser, Isla R. Simpson, Karen A. McKinnon and Adam S. Phillips Published: 14th March, 2017 Abstract: Application of random sampling techniques to composite differences between 18 El Niño and 14 La Niña events observed since 1920 reveals considerable uncertainty in both the pattern and amplitude of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter sea level pressure (SLP) r
  11. Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability Authors: S. G. Yeager and J. I. Robson Published: 18th April, 2017 Abstract: Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, th
  12. Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast Authors: Leroux S., Penduff T., Bessieres L., Molines J. M., Brankart J. M., Sérazin Guillaume, Barnier B. and Terray L. Published: 1st February, 2018 Abstract: This study investigates the origin and features of interannual-decadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability from several ocean simulations, including a large (50 member) ensemble of global, eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees) ocean-sea ice hindcasts. After an
  13. Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review Authors: Martha W. Buckley and John Marshall Published: 22nd December, 2015 Abstract: This is a review about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its mean structure, temporal variability, controlling mechanisms, and role in the coupled climate system. The AMOC plays a central role in climate through its heat and freshwater transports. Northward ocean heat transport achieved by the AMOC is responsible for the relative warmth of the
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