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  1. Rob Lightbown

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    I just posted my outlook for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season on the Crown Weather website. Overall, I think we're looking at a near average season as the ENSO phase moves into either warm-neutral or a weak El Nino. Also, it would not surprise me at all to see the formation of a western Atlantic tropical cyclone during May or June this year. My "numbers" are 14 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 of those of hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Am looking at an ACE this year of about 100. One thing I am actually kind of concerned about is for either a significant threat or a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the Carolina, Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast this season. Analog data for the past several months points to a significant threat to the area from North Carolina to southern New England.
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