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  1. 34 Years of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts - Presentation A presentation at the AMS 33rd Conference on “Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology” held at Ponte Vedra, Florida, USA between 16th and 20th April, 2018 Presenters: Philip J. Klotzbach Presentation Date: 19th April, 2018  Presentation Summary: Dr. Bill Gray started issuing operational Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts at Colorado State University in 1984. These initial forecasts used as predictors El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Caribbean basin sea level pressures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation. Since that time, seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University have undergone considerable modifications to incorporate modern reanalysis datasets. Many other entities including government agencies, universities and private weather forecast companies currently issue seasonal hurricane forecasts. These groups use different techniques to arrive at their predictions including statistical models, statistical-dynamical models and dynamical models. A synopsis of currently utilized techniques will be discussed along with skill assessment of some of the longest-running seasonal forecasts.  Link to conference video presentation (14 minutes): Link to full conference agenda:
  2. Tropical Cyclones Of The North Atlantic Ocean, 1851 – 2006 Authors: Colin J. McAdie, Christopher W. Landsea, Charles J. Neumann, Joan E. David, Eric S. Blake and Gregory R. Hammer Published: June, 1978 (Sixth revision - July, 2009) National Hurricane centre, NOAA. Introduction: Over the 156-year period 1851 through 2006, a total of 1,370 tropical cyclones reaching at least tropical storm strength (including subtropical storms) have been documented over the North Atlantic area. The formation of these storms, and possible intensification into mature hurricanes, takes place over warm tropical and subtropical waters. Eventual dissipation or modification, averaging seven to eight days later, typically occurs over the colder waters of the North Atlantic, or when the storms move over land and away from the sustaining marine environment. The geographical areas influenced by tropical cyclones are often referred to as tropical cyclone basins. Figure 1 shows the areal extent of the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin; it includes much of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and a substantial portion of the adjacent coastal area. From the global perspective, the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin is one of seven; others in the Northern Hemisphere are the eastern North Pacific, the western North Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean. The Southern Hemisphere basins are the southwestern Indian Ocean, the Australia/southeastern Indian Ocean and the Australia/SW Pacific. Tropical cyclones have been observed in the South Atlantic (McAdie and Rappaport 1991; Dias 2006) but are extremely rare events. The eastern portion of the South Pacific is virtually devoid of tropical cyclones. On rare occasions, tropical cyclones traverse from one basin to an adjacent basin within a given hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, an example would be North Atlantic Hurricane Cesar (1996) which moved westward across Central America as a weak system and then became Hurricane Douglas over the eastern North Pacific. Tropical cyclone climatologies are based upon long-term records of tropical cyclone occurrence and are the basis for much of the work in this field. A review of the construction and use of these climatologies is provided by Murnane and Liu (2004). Because of the destructive potential of hurricanes, interest in these systems has always been great. Numerous publications, technical and non-technical, describe tropical cyclone climate on various scales. Studies by Crutcher and Quayle (1974) and by Neumann and Hill (1976) and Neumann (1993) contain charts describing tropical cyclone frequency and motion characteristics over the various global basins. Gray (1968, 1975) presents an instructive and more theoretical treatment of global tropical cyclone climatology, including a discussion of the conditions associated with tropical cyclone development. Many studies on individual basins (Elsner and Kara 1999; Blake et al. 2008) or even portions of basins such as for Florida alone (Barnes 1998; Schwartz 2007) can be found in most meteorological libraries. Tropical cyclones have always been of concern to shipping and, through mariner reports, may be reasonably well-documented over remote oceanic areas, even in the 19th century and earlier. Ludlum (1963) for example, presents a history of Atlantic tropical cyclones dating back to the time of the Columbus explorations. Collation and dissemination of global tropical cyclone data is the responsibility of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Asheville, NC. Data are obtained in an agreed upon format from World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC), and other global meteorological services. In the United States, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, serves as an RSMC, with responsibility for both the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Scope: Together with related statistical summaries, this study presents annual plots of tropical cyclone tracks for the period 1851-2006 for systems reaching at least tropical storm strength. A detailed analysis of individual tracks is not attempted. This is a departure from Cry (1965) who included a considerable amount of track analysis and interpretation. The omission was prompted by the desire to keep the size of the book from becoming excessive, especially with the addition of many decades of data. Those familiar with previous editions of this publication will note the addition of track charts and data for the years 1851- 1870, and the significant revision of data from 1871-1920. The contribution of José Fernández-Partagás to this work (through 1910) cannot be understated. His careful reconstruction of tropical cyclone tracks from disparate written accounts (Fernández-Partagás and Diaz 1995a, 1995b, 1996a, 1996b, 1997, 1999) provided the foundation for the addition of these decades of data. The mechanism for the evaluation and incorporation of this new data and a number of other changes is an ongoing reanalysis project described in Landsea et al. (2004, 2008). For current information on this project and additional background, see data_sub/re_anal.html. It is important to note that the reanalysis is an ongoing project. This edition captures changes only through 1920. Readers are also referred to other publications that deal specifically with the analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclones. These include NOAA publications prepared for the Federal Flood Insurance Program and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Myers 1975; Overland 1975; Ho et al. 1987) and studies to satisfy the needs of the National Hurricane Center (Hope and Neumann 1971; Rappaport and Fernández-Partagás 1995; Hebert and McAdie 1997; Jarrell et al. 1992; Blake et al. 2007). The National Climatic Data Center contributed to tropical cyclone studies to satisfy the needs of the U.S. Navy (Crutcher and Quinlan 1971a-c; Crutcher and Qualye 1974). The NHC web site contains a large amount of information on current and historical tropical cyclone activity. Information found there can be used to update this text until such time as additional editions are issued. Also available on the NHC web site are the digitized tracks of all Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1851. Charts presented in Chart Series A and B are based on these data, known formally as HURDAT (Jarvinen et al. 1984) but more often referred to simply as the “best-track” file. The NHC annually receives hundreds of requests for tropical cyclone related information from both official and non-official sources. One of the goals of this publication is to provide readily available, correct, and consistent answers to some of these queries. A knowledge of climatology is important in the forecast process and this publication also provides Hurricane Specialists at the NHC with a reliable source of reference material on Atlantic tropical cyclones Link to full paper:
  3. Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean Tracks and Frequencies of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 1871-1963 Authors: George W. Cry (Laboratory of Climatology, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington DC (Technical paper no. 55)) Published: 1965 Preface: Scope.-This paper seeks to consolidate records of the occurrences and paths of tropical cyclones of storm and hurricane force in the North Atlantic region, and to provide information on the frequencies and seasonal distributions of these relatively rare, but important, disturbances. Tropical cyclones are significant features of the climate of much of the eastern and southern United States as well as of most other areas bordering the western edge of the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The destructive features of a single fully-developed hurricane-extremely strong winds, torrential rainfall, and high tides and waves-may pose a threat to life and property over an area of more than 30,000 square miles, and to more than 30 million people. Tremendous amounts of property damage have resulted from tropical cyclone activity-ranging upward to near $1 billion during the passage of a single hurricane. More than 12,000 persons have lost their lives in hurricanes in the United States since 1900, and almost 6,900 deaths were attributed to a hurricane in the Caribbean as recently as 1963. All activities in the regions subject to periodic tropical cyclones business, commerce, industry, agriculture-can benefit from more complete information concerning their occurrence. The primary ii purpose of this paper is to provide this information in a convenient form. U.S. Weather Bureau Technical Paper No. 36 [9] provided the starting point for the present study. The general outline of that work has been maintained, but additional material has been utilized to extend information on tropical cyclones backward to include the years 1871 through 1885 and forward to include the years 1959 through 1963. New material also provided the basis for slight modifications of a number of the tropical cyclone paths shown in [9]. New text, tables, figures, and charts have been prepared, and a short discussion of possible trends in tropical cyclone frequencies has been included. The decadal (10-day, 10-yr.) maps of Technical Paper No. 36 have not been included in this paper. Consequently, Technical Paper No. 36 remains the only source of this type of data. Acknowledgments.-The interest, encouragement, and advice of Dr. H. E. Landsberg, Director of Climatology, H. C. S. Thorn, W. H. Haggard, A. I. Cooperman, and W. C. Palmer are appreciated. Thanks are due C. F. Kambic for his assistance in the collection and assembly of data. The support of theN ational Hurricane Research Laboratory, Dr. R. C. Gentry, Director, is gratefully acknowledged. CONTENTS: Page PREFACE_____________________________________________________ ii 1. TROPICAL CYCLONES_____________________________________ 1 2. CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES______________ 2 3. SOURCES AND QUALITY OF DATA_______________________ 3 4. NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS_______ 5 5. NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES____ 6 Formation ____ ~--------------------------------------------- 6 Hurricane intensity__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 12 Recurvatures and erratic movements______________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 18 6. FREQUENCIES OF NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES__________________________________________________ 25 Monthly and annual frequencies______________________________ 25 Dailyfrequency_____________________________________________ 28 Tropical cyclones affecting the United States___________________ 29 Trends in North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency_____________ 31 REFEREN0ES_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ ___ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ 33 CHART SERIES A-Tracks of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, By Years, 1871-1963 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 36 CHART SERIES B-Tracks of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, By Months and Other Calendar Periods__________________________ 129 Link to full paper:
  4. Antarctica Since The IGY (International Geophysical Year) Authors: A.P. Crary, Science and Public Affairs, "Bulletin of the Atomic Sciences" Published: December, 1970, vol 25, no. 10. (104 pages) Summary (no abstract): This excellent bulletin covers the early geographical, physical and exploration history of Antartica. For anyone studying the current and future meteorology, climate and ice extent changes, it is useful to look back. Many more recent papers on Antartica will be added to the portal and some of these will be reviewed in posts on the "Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion" thread. Contents: Antarctica since the IGY - International Geophysical Year, 1957, Antarctic regions Antarctic research and the relevance of science - Polar research Emergence of Antarctica: the mythical land - Antarctic exploration Antarctic treaty - Antarctic Treaty (1959) Political experiment in Antarctica - Polar research Antarctica: experimental proving ground for peaceful coexistence and international collaboration - Polar research International cooperation in Antarctica, the next decade - Polar research Antarctic geology and Gondwanaland - Continental drift, Geology (Antarctic regions) Polar ice and the global climate machine - Atmospheric research, Climate, Ice (Polar regions) Antarctic meteorology - Air pollution (Antarctic regions), Meteorology (International aspects) Upper atmosphere as seen from Antarctica - Atmosphere, Upper, Polar research Drilling through the ice cap: probing climate for a thousand centuries - Drilling and boring (Ice), Polar research, Antarctic regions (Climate) Survey of Antarctic biology: life below freezing - Ecology (Antarctic regions), Wildlife (Antarctic regions) Evolution of a venture in Antarctic science; Operation Tabarin and the British Antarctic survey - Sir Vivian Fuchs; 1908-1999, Antarctic exploration Developing the U.S. Antarctic research program - Antarctic exploration, Polar research Antarctic research: a pattern of science management - National Science Foundation (U.S.), Polar research Science and logistics in Antarctica - Antarctic exploration Antarctic: any economic future? - Natural resources (Antarctic regions) Long look ahead - A.P Crary ISSN 0096-3402 Published by Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world. Link to the full bulletin (click on both lines): Link to all issues of the bulletin from 1945 to 1990:
  5. Favorite memory of 2017/18? Mine is definitely the first March blizzard
  6. A sudden stratospheric warming compendium Authors: Amy H. Butler, Jeremiah P. Sjoberg, Dian J. Seidel, and Karen H. Rosenlof Published: 9th February, 2017 Abstract: Major, sudden midwinter stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on winter surface climate, including increased frequency of cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia and anomalous warming over Greenland and eastern Canada. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958–2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980–2014), JRA-55 (1958–2014), ERA-interim (1979–2014), ERA-40 (1958–2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958–2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958–2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. The SSWC is archived and maintained by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI, doi:10.7289/V5NS0RWP). Link to full paper: Link to the NOAA archive:
  7. Dynamic coupling of the stratosphere with the troposphere and sudden stratospheric warmings Author: Kevin E. Trenberth First Published: 1966 (revised 5th July, 1972 and published 1st April ,1973) Abstract: Numerical time integrations of a 9-layer quasigeostrophic highly truncated spectral model of the atmosphere are used to study tropospheric-stratospheric interaction with particular regard to sudden stratospheric warmings. The model is global and extends to 0.05 mb (71 km) with roughly 10 km resolution in the stratosphere, and includes an annual heating cycle. A linear baroclinic analysis of a similar model shows that the inclusion of spherical geometry allows significant growth rates in the long wave region of instability. Preliminary integrations without eddies reveal the seasonal variation of a thermally driven circulation. Model integrations simulating the months of December and January were made (i) without nonzonal forcing, and (ii) with nonzonal heating and orography included, to represent southern and northern hemisphere winters. The overall features of the atmosphere were very well simulated. With the inclusion of the annual heating cycle, the model successfully reproduced a more intense circulation in January than existed in December. This caused a maximum tropospheric meridional temperature gradient in the winter hemisphere to occur some weeks prior to the maximum in the external heating field. The presence of nonzonal heating in the winter hemisphere brought about an increase in circulation intensity and produced a stationary perturbation with a strong westward slope with height extending high into the stratosphere. These are features somewhat similar to those of the Aleutian system. Associated with this were considerably warmer temperatures in the polar night stratosphere and a weaker stratospheric westerly jet. The winter mesosphere of the model was driven in the manner of the lower stratosphere and a temperature maximum was produced in mid latitudes. Link to Paper:
  8. Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the atmosphere and the displacements of the semi-permanent centers of action Authors: Carl G. Rossby and Collaborators (Journal of Marine Research) Published: 1939 Abstract (not produced - snipped copy of introductory paragraph shown): Link to full paper:
  9. The layer of frictional influence in wind and ocean currents [1935] Authors: Rossby, Carl-Gustaf and Montgomery, Raymond B. Published: April, 1935 Abstract: The purpose of the present paper is to analyse, in a reasonably comprehensive fashion,the principal factors controlling the mean state of turbulence and hence the mean velocity distribution in wind and ocean currents near the surface. The plan of the investigation is theoretical but efforts have been made to check each major step or result through an analysis of available measurements. The comparison of theory and observations is made diffcult by the fact that in most cases measurements have been arranged without the aid of a working hypothesis concerning the dynamics of the effect studied;thus information is often lacking concerning parameters essential to the interpretation of the data. Link to full paper: 3 No 3.pdf;sequence=1
  10. An Essay on the General Circulation of the Earth's Atmosphere Authors: Victor P. Starr Published: 15th December, 1947 Abstract: In this discussion of the general circulation the course of the normal transfer of absolute angular momentum from the belts of easterlies near the equator to the belts of surface westerlies in middle latitudes is studied. It is suggested that the horizontal transfer is brought about by the large-scale troughs and ridges in the mid-troposphere, which are adapted to perform this function by their departure from sinusoidal form. Also, the shapes of the subtropical circulations are found to be such as to produce a transport of angular momentum poleward. It is proposed that the downward flow of angular momentum in the westerly belts is effected by the presence of surface cyclones of the Bjerknes type in these regions. The upward flow in the easterly belts is assumed to be effected through some analogous mechanism, although the details are not clear owing to the scarcity of proper observational data. Link to full paper:<0039%3AAEOTGC>2.0.CO%3B2
  11. On The Transfer Of Energy In Stationery Mountain Waves Authors: Arnt Eliassen and Enok Palm Published: 9th December, 1960 Abstract (snipped): Link to full paper: Direct Link Across to a 2014 Paper Acknowledging and Updating this 1960 work: A gentle stroll through EP (Eliassen & Palm) flux theory