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  1. I just posted my outlook for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season on the Crown Weather website. Overall, I think we're looking at a near average season as the ENSO phase moves into either warm-neutral or a weak El Nino. Also, it would not surprise me at all to see the formation of a western Atlantic tropical cyclone during May or June this year. My "numbers" are 14 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 of those of hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Am looking at an ACE this year of about 100. One thing I am actually kind of concerned about is for either a significant threat or a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the Carolina, Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast this season. Analog data for the past several months points to a significant threat to the area from North Carolina to southern New England.
  2. This will be the new separate thread for Gordon. Right now, Gordon has just made landfall with heavy rain across Southern Florida. Rain bands are currently affecting Southern Florida. Winds are currently, as of 11 AM EDT, 45 mph winds with a pressure of 1009 mb. The forecast remains unchanged as this is an intermediate advisory (4A). Next complete advisory at 2 PM.
  3. Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season Authors: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre Published: May 2014 Abstract: The hurricane impacts of El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are like a see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, strengthening hurricane activity in one region while weakening it in the other. Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin. Link to full article:ño-and-la-niña-hurricane-season
  4. A place to post any and all observations about the tropical Atlantic. SAL, wind shear, satellite images, and even, on occasion GFS voodoocanes.
  5. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to provide a better estimate. Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.
  6. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
  7. Public Information Statement 17-07 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 1200 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: John Derber Acting Mesoscale Modeling Branch Chief NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on the Removal of GFDL Hurricane Model Products and Addition of New HMON Hurricane Model Products through March 17, 2017 The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to retire the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) and replace it with a new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based hurricane model called HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic) in NCEP operations. The NWS is seeking comments on these proposed changes through March 17, 2017. The primary reasons for retiring the legacy GFDL Hurricane Model are based on: 1. The Environmental Modeling Center's (EMC) efforts towards unification of operational models within the NEMS framework. 2. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model (HMON) through evaluation of three-year (2014-2016) retrospective experiments run by EMC. HMON model consistently showed improved performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL hurricane model. 3. Retirement of key personnel at GFDL leading to a loss of support for maintaining the GFDL Hurricane model in operations. The timing of the proposed changes will be as follows: 1. The GHM will be discontinued on the date of the GFS2017 upgrade sometime in May 2017. Please reference the GFS SCN once it is disseminated for the exact date. At that time, all GHM products found on: - NCEP servers under hur.YYYYMMDD will be discontinued: Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day - Model Analyses and Guidance will be discontinued: 2. With the hurricane model upgrades slated for early June 2017, NCEP will start delivering the new operational model, HMON, on the NCEP servers. Please reference that SCN once it is disseminated for product details and the exact date. NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed with this change. Send comments on this proposal to: Avichal Mehra Lead, Physical Scientist NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center College Park, MD Or Carissa Klemmer NWS/NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team Lead College Park, MD National Public Information Statements are online at:
  8. Getting to that time of year (Mid/late March) where we should be looking forward to seasonal predictions for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere hurricane season. Anybody know when those drop from NHC, CSU, TWC, or others? When you see 'em, post 'em here!
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