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  1. Michael is a hurricane. **For historical posts on Michael prior to it's Hurricane designation, please find them in the main Hurricane Season thread here: BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life- threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
  2. I just posted my outlook for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season on the Crown Weather website. Overall, I think we're looking at a near average season as the ENSO phase moves into either warm-neutral or a weak El Nino. Also, it would not surprise me at all to see the formation of a western Atlantic tropical cyclone during May or June this year. My "numbers" are 14 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 of those of hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Am looking at an ACE this year of about 100. One thing I am actually kind of concerned about is for either a significant threat or a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the Carolina, Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast this season. Analog data for the past several months points to a significant threat to the area from North Carolina to southern New England.
  3. ...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 107 WTNT41 KNHC 052033 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt, making Florence a category 4 hurricane. Florence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of stronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity guidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening. That said, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be becoming slightly disrupted by the shear. Since the shear is anticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening is shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the upper end of the guidance through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, vertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence to intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However, Florence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger shear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The new official intensity forecast is little changed from before except to adjust upward to account for the higher initial intensity. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. Strong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest through about 48 hours. Track guidance is good agreement during this period, and the official forecast is essentially an update to the previous one. Beyond day 2, a break forms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering currents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back toward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a bit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to the TVCN consensus. It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread and run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 46.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
  4. This will be the new separate thread for Gordon. Right now, Gordon has just made landfall with heavy rain across Southern Florida. Rain bands are currently affecting Southern Florida. Winds are currently, as of 11 AM EDT, 45 mph winds with a pressure of 1009 mb. The forecast remains unchanged as this is an intermediate advisory (4A). Next complete advisory at 2 PM.
  5. Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season Authors: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre Published: May 2014 Abstract: The hurricane impacts of El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are like a see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, strengthening hurricane activity in one region while weakening it in the other. Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin. Link to full article:ño-and-la-niña-hurricane-season
  6. A place to post any and all observations about the tropical Atlantic. SAL, wind shear, satellite images, and even, on occasion GFS voodoocanes.
  7. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to provide a better estimate. Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.
  8. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
  9. Public Information Statement 17-07 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 1200 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: John Derber Acting Mesoscale Modeling Branch Chief NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on the Removal of GFDL Hurricane Model Products and Addition of New HMON Hurricane Model Products through March 17, 2017 The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to retire the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) and replace it with a new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based hurricane model called HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic) in NCEP operations. The NWS is seeking comments on these proposed changes through March 17, 2017. The primary reasons for retiring the legacy GFDL Hurricane Model are based on: 1. The Environmental Modeling Center's (EMC) efforts towards unification of operational models within the NEMS framework. 2. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model (HMON) through evaluation of three-year (2014-2016) retrospective experiments run by EMC. HMON model consistently showed improved performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL hurricane model. 3. Retirement of key personnel at GFDL leading to a loss of support for maintaining the GFDL Hurricane model in operations. The timing of the proposed changes will be as follows: 1. The GHM will be discontinued on the date of the GFS2017 upgrade sometime in May 2017. Please reference the GFS SCN once it is disseminated for the exact date. At that time, all GHM products found on: - NCEP servers under hur.YYYYMMDD will be discontinued: Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day - Model Analyses and Guidance will be discontinued: 2. With the hurricane model upgrades slated for early June 2017, NCEP will start delivering the new operational model, HMON, on the NCEP servers. Please reference that SCN once it is disseminated for product details and the exact date. NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed with this change. Send comments on this proposal to: Avichal Mehra Lead, Physical Scientist NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center College Park, MD Or Carissa Klemmer NWS/NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team Lead College Park, MD National Public Information Statements are online at:
  10. Getting to that time of year (Mid/late March) where we should be looking forward to seasonal predictions for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere hurricane season. Anybody know when those drop from NHC, CSU, TWC, or others? When you see 'em, post 'em here!
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