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  1. In August when we put out the winter idea The Pioneer Model which I believe is the most accurate long range 500 mb model out there ( again I have analyzed 2 meter weakness where its too cold in warm winters but deadly when its cold, and I think that is dependent on the overall state of the global temps... where adjustments have to be made when there is overwhelming warmth as in the super nino year and the left year after... that is something Joe may have to adjust) Here is what it had The monster message was cold was coming, The blended analog scheme I have also was cold, The two together look like what at 500 mb is the most impressive European run I have seen for a winter in October I am truly blessed to have Joe and Tom around me. And I will tell you this, what D Aleo has developed, throwing in such things as solar and antilogs into the mix is truly a step up in the field. I only wish he got more recognition but those of you who have followed him like I have to know that this is one of the giants of the field and as much as Bill Gray did for tropical meteorology, his ideas on this model he has developed, maybe the equal in seasonal forecasting, I think we can see the el nino is coming on, which means SOI ideas will beat the MEI.. Of course for the winter weather lovers, it will matter not unless the winter turns out the way we think, But may take on the euro seasonals this morning, is that as bullish as we are this could turn out even more widespread. At the very least, we see the Pioneer/analog blend lined up with the Euro
  2. This should ring a Weatherbell since it looks like our forecast, From the JMA with love I have no problem with this Hokey Smokey This looks Like a Modoki Mail out the warnings
  3. I will speak on my forecast ideas Positive: The Ace burst for the first 15 days of September was jumped on Aug 23. Saw Gordon a week before, and this coming back from Sept 1/2. Track and landfall first to be displayed Sept 5. Tightening of the eyewall analyzed well coming to the coast You have seen those maps a dozen times, and yesterday glory wont help you today. Negative, Not figuring out the drying, plus distortion aspect of competitive banding away from storm ( actually shows why I want to seed these, anything that disrupts the storm will weaken the wind)The drying aspect may have been due to the change of the overall pattern in the tropical Atlantic away from bullish to bearish as far as development. I did not think that would be something to worry about in a well-developed storm over the water, away from the center, This upward motion tool is something I think that is of great use and so when storms are heading toward it intensity forecast should be more bearish. Once the center gets disrupted, then the outer bands which are not disrupted can act as a detriment to convergence near the center, ANYTHING that takes the focus away from the core of a powerful storm will weaken it, These are physical considerations, have nothing to do with co2. As the storm approached a cup shape coast convergence was forced to be focused more on the core so the eye tightened, The gust at Wilmington to 105 leads me to believe that other guests from directions from off the water on the beach likely lead to higher gusts there. To put the storm's wind in perspective, this beat Hazel and Donna, 2 majors that passed very close to the city, It did not beat the most underrated hurricane on record IMO Helene 930 mb south of Cape Fear in 1958, That storm did not even go ashore and Willmington gusted to 135. Which of course casts major doubts about attribution to the man of this storm, given it was a mid-range cat 3 pressure storm ( it wound up a 2.5 at landfall on my power and impact scale) Given the pressure and the wind of Helene, for instance, she was a 4.5 when south of Cape Fear. Conversely, people scoffing at this storm and its place in history that agree with me on AGW, are also suspect in their ideas of downplaying the reality, You see how ugly this has gotten? The real problem of the forecast and result now has become a shiny penny for agendas that have nothing to do with objective evaluations, End game of the storm on my part mimicked my ping pong nickname, Joe Collapso ( I once blew a 14 point lead to my wife in ping pong) I bought the Euro but failed to remember the lesson of Matthew, when I did not bite on the euro eastward path that was part of its collapsing of the ridge off the northeast coast too much, So I thought the trough replacing the ridge to the EAST of the storm would allow for the storm to move back over the water, Also I made an error on convergence considerations of the southwest moving storm! I posted on this yesterday, while a storm parallelling the coast moving up the coast would naturally try to stay offshore due to convergence near the coast from air moving quickly over water, slowing over land, in this case, ITS THE OPPOSITE and the radar showing the rain dying near the coast in the path of the storm revealed that. Again think about this. When air accelerates AWAY from a point, what is going on over the point as part of the vertical velocity? Think about why easterlies in the tropics when stronger west of an area means more sinking over that area ( large scale) Well the wind over land is slowed down by frictional effects when coming from the northwest as a storm is moving at you. But over the water its faster. So where is the sinking? Just offshore opposite of where convergence would try to keep the storm in the first place. Consequently though out front with the threat and landfall, Air that accelerates away from a point has to be replaced by air sinking from above at that point Summation:My end game was a blunder I did not think about why the storm would spread out and ignored the developing unfavorable pattern for development that is spreading into the basin as a whole for a week to 10 days .2) I forgot something I had noted in Matthew for one and the euro killing ridges too much, for two I did not think about the reverse effect of storms that stay just offshore because of considerations. I did not have the vision to think about that, but only learned through correction, That being said these are all part of tools I can use when faced again with this, The primary tool will be the large-scale upward motion ideas, as they are when to push for or against development. One remembers their scars as they are always visible if you wish to avoid getting them again. Perhaps the reason I did not remember Matthew was because I was right on not buying the euro then, which again argues for the value of being wrong in the longer term, you learn more if it means something to you Finally, arrogance that set in last Saturday, I posted on this saying I was already having post-competition depression because everyone would jump on this now and my "job" was done. How foolish is that, Nothing is ever done, I violated my own rule of where you stand today is because of what happened yesterday to get you to reach for tomorrow. The lack of humility in the face of something like this, thinking there was no more challenge ( how foolish is that) because of my reasoning is a big lesson not only in the weather, but other matters I am concerned with on a higher plane, One reaps what they sew. You may notice here much more attention to the errors made, I am sure there are ommissions and for those readings, you should feel free to note the ones I missed. But in the end, from wherever you stand, the rules to compete ring loud and clear 1) Embrace adversity... the challenges will make you better, 2) Check your ego ( obviously a problem with me thinking this was a done deal) 3) Love your opponent Be it the weather, another person, by seeing things OPPOSITE of what you believe, you are challenged and get stronger, No one gets stronger doing something less than what can challenge them, 4) Do it because you want to and love it, Well I love this and want to do it, Its the greatest blessing I ever had One may say that there are things to be proud of. Well, the devil got thrown out of heaven over pride. if you believe like me, Therefore for me to continue to reach beyond my grasp, I must improve things that were not on target. By doing so I will be stronger for the next challenge, and then weaknesses there will lead me to getting even stronger if those 4 rules are embraced. A mans reach must exceed his grasp or what's a heaven for, You see the creation teaches spiritual aspects but I guess it depends on the eyes you are looking with, BTW I dont think this is over,( hurricane season) There should be another ACE burst Sept 22-Oct 10 are my approximate dates, Interestingly enough our first idea on the season in that aspect may wind up being the best, Another lesson to be learned Peace out
  4. This is excerpted from a Weatherbell.com Post with examples of something for my Commercial Clients. The Title is from a Talking Heads Song, (Psycho Killer) Which may or may not apply ha ha I made a comment yesterday saying there is not much more I can add on Florence because there isn't I expect our forecast to be right, or close enough that I am not making wild swings, I said last week that I would wait till Wednesday if I was going to make any big changes. I think I have been as extreme as can be from a distance. And so if other forecasts say the same thing, what else more can I say, The fact is the forecast is for the worst disaster on record to hit the Carolinas. Besides, the Raging Weatherbull is the real outlet for this, But I want to show you something, this is what I am talking about, Look at this tropical update for clients on August 26th, how long it is. Because I am setting all this up, so before its happening, there is a lot to explain if you are setting up something to happen At the time this was written the tropics were "quiet" August 26, 2018, 6:00 p.m. Atlantic will grow more active this week. It should be very active next week and the week after. Above average activity in September is on the table. Right now it is still rather quiet. Cloud shot: The eastern Atlantic is simmering a little, though. Total precipitable water: It is become more humid farther to the north. Dust is still robust, but farther to the north now and not all the way down to 10°N in the eastern Atlantic. The MJO is getting more active. Activity in the western Pacific will shut down and the focus of the action this week will be in the eastern Pacific, with two or three storms. Hawaii could be threatened again but not from Miriam. The point is the MJO on the GEFS and now even the Euro is on the move: When we look at the JMA I showed you Thursday, this week is still inactive: During Week 2 we see the blue getting into the western Gulf of Mexico: Last year, this kind of pattern was what we saw in the hyperactive part of September: Last year the second week of September: That was a one week forecast right in front of the period, but the point is if we track low level vorticity on the Euro we can see the first feature that will bring enhanced rain from the northeastern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico this week: This grows as it comes westward to the western Gulf in Days 8-10, along with other areas that will enhance with time. Day 2 vorticity: By Day 4 it's in the islands: Day 6 Bahamas: Meanwhile, a piece is breaking off the Atlantic trough with a wave enhancing in the central Atlantic and a stronger wave coming off Africa. Day 8: Day 10: There are 5 features of interest from South Texas to Africa. I have seen this before in quiet seasons. There have been 2-3 week bursts and then it becomes quiet again. While nothing appears to develop rapidly, given the nature of El Niño seasons and the forecasted upward motion patterns, it may be that as features get closer to the U.S. problems will develop. A year like this does favor features trying to recurve more quickly if they develop in the first place. My fear in the longer term is slower developing features that get pretty far to the west and then develop. Given the overall pattern over North America with heat and ridging displaced abnormally far to the north in the East for the next 10 days, I would say that we will have to be on our toes. This week will be like a pot starting to simmer. I do think it will start to boil next week, and for a while the lid could bust off. So this Thursday's JMA will be quite interesting, but the shutting down of the western Pacific and the focus in the eastern Pacific now means something may be afoot, though still several days off. So you can see how long it is, But now look at this morning Much shorter, If there was just Florence, it would be a paragraph long, But the point is that once the wheels are in motion, all you do is oil them, The machine is running September 10, 2018, 7:15 a.m. 10 Days from Hell in Tropics. Florence landfall intensity may rival Hugo/Hazel (benchmark storms in Carolinas) Disastrous rains (Euro now has the 3-4 feet I alluded to over the weekend). Tropical storm hit on Texas Coast late week from western Caribbean feature. Isaac will move into the Caribbean as a hurricane but may fall apart. Helene will recurve but may lingers in the eastern Atlantic. Non-tropical origin storm may develop next weekend off the Eastern Seaboard and pull Florence back in. The 3-week frenzy should end after September 20, with only 1 or 2 storms, if that, for the rest of the season. A big westerly burst is developing in the Pacific, seen in the SOI: Cloud shot: We starting setting this up in late August, so there is no need to rehash the diagnosis of what is going on now. The map is in order of importance for the U.S. Florence There is not much more to say than what we have said. The hit may be as strong as Hugo or Hazel, the two strongest ever to hit the Carolinas. It will wander into the southern Appalachians and stall. The combination of the intensity and rainfall means this is likely to be the most costly storm in the Carolina's history. The Euro has the 3-4 feet of rain now on it. Florence may wind up getting pulled back out in a complex situation with feature #4 (white) where a non-tropical origin storm may develop and become tropical over that warm water in 6-10 days. Western Gulf (Yellow) I am bullish on development in the western Gulf of Mexico. I don't think it can get to a hurricane, but if not for Florence, this would be a big deal. Expect 2-3 days of disruption and a slowdown as it comes ashore. Rainfall of 10-20 inches can occur on the coast. Like with Gordon's evolution for the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, I am more aggressive on development, as this one is coming away from what is the developing sinking zone in the Caribbean. Isaac (Magenta) This should still be a hurricane when it reaches the islands, but the combination of developing sinking in the Caribbean and the proximity with Hispañola may do it in after that. It may wind up being pulled northward into the mish-mosh of what will go on off the Southeast Coast. Helene (Green) This will stay well out, but it may perform a giant loop. It's the last of the African waves. Much shorter So its not like I am just going to sleep, But if I am sitting in a certain position and have said certain things, why should I then react because all you know what is breaking loose with other entities picking up on what we have been saying for a week? Right? I did make a comment about Drudge basically copying something that went out at 7 am from me yesterday ( with the 3-4 feet of rain and the worst in Carolina history) because it was odd that it was almost exactly the same 12 hours later. Garrett actually told me about it, I really don't pay much attention to other weather sources as its hard enough to deal with the weather, Look at this: that was issued in the morning then look at drudge that evening, Interesting But I think I can do a better job talking to you on the raging weatherbull on the tropics. Quite frankly the biggest forecast challenge METEOROLOGICALLY is Texas, for I have taken a stand on a tropical storm hit there later in the week, Unless the GFS is scoring some unreal coup the euro wins again and so the map from Sept 5th for landfall and the idea from the 2cnd for what we see now, well that was making a forecast, The real forecast problem now to me is Texas, The FORECAST part in the Carolinas is honing in, Texas is a development and how much situation, If no Florence then it would be a big headache. So independent of Florence it already is. I was moping around the house Saturday and Jess asked me what was wrong, I wasn't being cocky ( far from it) I said I thought the forecast part of Florence, landfall, and intensity was done, . At 63 I love the weather and am fascinated by it, but the why BEFORE, the what each day gets bigger to me, And each day the admonition of Dr John Cahir as to what a forecaster is supposed to be about, the why before the what, grows bigger to me. So that looks like its done, the big ridge, the warm water, the GFS model bias and the result is bringing the storm to where I am bringing it and if I am going to change it appreciably it wont be will Wednesday. So the main idea here remains the same, Its highly likely that the worst natural disaster on record is going to occur centered in the Carolinas. In terms of total damage, it could be a top 3 storm cause of the flooding, as that's a huge aspect and flooding, is what Katrina ( though from levies breaking) and Harvey over the top
  5. This is inspired by some things I am seeing on twitter, Again we have to remember how hurricanes work, The weaker the feature, the less it will weaken because its weak to being with. But a powerful system, a different story, it will weaken rapidly as it moves inland. If this is as strong as I think when it hits and moves inland as far as modeling has, it will weaken 30-50 mb in 24 hours. Why?, Well the reason it got so strong in the first place is because of perfect conditions. What happens when those conditions are cut out from under its feet. Say goodbye There is no reason for it to stay strong once it moves away from the water, It will be like any other hurricane that is in a strong ridge going inland, for ins,tance lets take Carla Sept 15 1961 It went in at 934 mb within 24 hours its up at 994. The pressure of the storm where it is, is a function of what the conditions can support. So here is the call, If this goes in at 940 mb and 24 hours later its more than 100 miles inland it will fill 40-50 mb. It has no reason to stay that strong, Its in a ridge and once the processes that are driving it get cut ( it goes inland) it will fill fast, Its not going to be moving fast. If it can keep our path relatively close to Chesapeake bay perhaps its still a minimal hurricane. But this is going to fill quickly Look , we have to remember these are giant heat engines. I have often used the analogy of a 150 lb person ( a weak storm) with a 1500 calorie intake, If overall conditions improve, it can actually go inland a bit and still maintain itself. But think of a well-developed hurricane, let's say the equal of a 250 lb man on 3000 calories a day, What happens when its cut to 1500 calories? The fact is what may sustain a weaker storm may be a big detriment to a big storm, If this goes in at 1000mb chances are a day later its only filled 5 mb, But if its going in and progressing inland around a ridge, its no different than if a Carla or Rita was hitting, Think how much they filled in 24 hours. This needs perfect conditions, its going to get them, and I have made no secret of my belief, since Sept 2cnd a major hurricane is coming to the east coast, But the stronger this is, the faster it will fill going inland, Remember these other storms, Hugo Fran etc, were moving fast so they got well inland within 24 hours. This is going to move slower but will fill, in relation to time inland just as fast, if it goes up into the interior which I think is likely, our analogs have this as a hit on the NC coast, but the physical reasons for rapid rise in pressure are all there, as the stronger the storm is, the more it will fill Remember Irma filled some 20 mb just brushing the north coast of Cuba in 6 hours.. That is how perfect things must be to stay strong. The most devastating track would be hit and then up Chesapeake bay or even north, but again with the warm water and usual model bias, which I have counted on for where we have had it for 3 days, Its more likely I think for me to adjust more southwest than north with this Wed am forecast for next Wed Thur am forecast ahd it inland and already down to a 2 by Thursday evening Todays forecast interestingly enough, the weaker it is, the less it will fill. In other words, it may fill from 940 to 990 in 24 hours after landfall, It it hit at 960, it might only be to 995. 980 only to 1000 mb etc Remember Hugo which stayed a hurricane till the western Carolinas moved quite fast, This will not be doing that. So Major hit yes, and very high damage and flood potential, but its highly unlikely a slow moving storm getting inland will not fill rapidly given the slow movement, The modeling looks right on that ( again that is assuming the path is not along the coast, in which case the filling is slower)
  6. The winter has been a cold one in South America and this is not in line with winters where el Ninos have followed. This year Augusts are warm This one is not are there any? Well lets look at late starting ones ( ASO or later) ( 1968,1969,1976,1977) slightly similar but 2 of those are quite similar 1969,1976 together From 1982 on, no Augusts in South America was as cold as this one is with an el nino following! There were months as cold, but all post nino years Yet the latest CFSV2 forecast is for a STRONG el nino I think its overdone obviously Just for fun what were the winters of ,69-70 76-77 like in the US Dang. What is fascinating is the difference in SST from those years to where we are now ( and the fact its warmer overall now) My conclusion: There is no clear signal here UNLESS SOUTH AMERICA ITSELF IS THE SIGNAL We are going to find out, For we only have 2 examples where late el Ninos developed and it was cold in South America, the other 2, and indeed all the rest it really was not all the cold. But 69 and 76 stand out. Stay tuned, another thing to watch
  7. The intersection between meteorology and climate is often because of what I think is a weaponization of the weather to push an agenda unrelated to the problem that is really at hand... the forecast. A classic example is the well-telegraphed heat in the western US, set up beforehand by trusting the MEI analog of 2006 to rule the front part of summer, Right now I am trusting one of my analogs, ( 2006 is one also, but it had been the strongest MEI analog) 2002, to take over for a while, The 60 day cycle trends are coming to an end now, as the pattern driving all this has changed quite a bit, But the point is we saw it, said it, and when it happened, boom gets what gets blamed? . What is disingenuous to me is that there are things we have to look at that are more important, but I never seen anyone say boo about them. Since the winter of 2017 I have been on a kick to push the idea that the tools we use are being affected by the state of the planet, how warm, where its warm, the trend of warming or cooler, etc. It does not matter what made it warm, you all know my ideas on that, But I am now real-time battle-testing an SOI theory for if an idea almost a year away beats the MEI from 3 months away on an el nino, one can not ignore that, The current MEI for the last 2 months has never had an el nino of any kind behind it. But I want to give another example here as to why what we need to chase is the effect of a warmed globe ( sorry for those of you who think I am getting soft, I am simply realistic) on means that were developed that incorporated cooler times The best things about errors is they can teach you, Remember the scene in Jaws where they were looking at the scars they had and remembered vividly how they got them? Same thing in the weather, While Feb 2017 was painful, it turned into a huge blessing for me as alot of good has come for it, In fact my talks, forward into the past, chronicling using the past to forecast the future started with the pain of this event. We see that phase 8,1,2,3 centered in February is quite cold in 1978 a monster rotation through these phases gave us this In 1988 we had this Now both years were weak el ninos ( hint hint for this year) 2017 was not, but it was not like there was a raging la nina. And besides a record tour de force through the holy grail of Feb cold should not produce this unless something else is going on that produces a different result. The MJO burst into phases 8,1,2,3 produced what we look for in terms of the tropical forcing, after all the phase calculation is based on parameters that must be met. So what could have happened Well look at the SST in 2017 But look at that above vs 1978 or 1988 It cant be just a weak el nino, It seems to me it has to the whole picture and the reactions taking place ( including with the warmer arctic) cause a different result, That seems intuitive. What is truly shocking about 2017 is how opposite it was, Obviously, the MJO ideas worked much better in 2018, but then again we were cooling off the peak. But circling back to the point, There is all sorts of yelling across the fence between climate and weather. They may not be twins, but they are cousins, It matters not what the cause, what matters is tools we use react differently than their means given the initial conditions ( and the way we got there) Consequently there are a whole slew of tools that need to be researched meticulously IMO that links the climate/weather communities to develop better ideas on how to use them I am showing this example after the fact. However if we find that the SOI idea from last JFM beats a June/July MEI idea, then its not just luck, it has something to do with the state of the planet today vs the variables that form the MEI, which date back through a colder time in the worlds number one supplier of energy to the system, the ocean! ( and yes I pay homage to the sun for what it does)
  8. The Time will come when winter will ask what you were doing all summer-- Henry Clay Well here is what I have been up to Major cold stormy winter in the cards Could simply evolve into it from fall Extreme of coldest air could wind up over much of the US this winter Lets cut right to the point Temperatures Snowfall I could see freak events into S Texas and deep into FLA this year Analog ( for now) I have been alluding to this on posts since Spring, that one heck of a winter may be on the way, The question becomes how widespread and can it "run the table" The European looks quite like the blend of 2002 and 2009 with its implications of all months have large-scale normal to below temps I was waiting for it to come out to issue this because again I am getting strong objective support to the ideas that this winter could be as bad as 13-14,14-15, perhaps worse if we don't get the late start. None of the Decembers in the sample were "severe" but 2 of them were very warm to counter the colder examples. Remember all the winters in the sample had a time where winter let up, whether it was a warm start like 06, or 14 or with back and forth, a week before snowmeggedon began, forecasts in the mid Atlantic states were touting winter was not in site. A weak before arguably the most severe 45 days in New England weather history, the Patriots were in a playoff game and it was near 50 My fear is this has a chance to be more than just a focused 30-45 day period with times of let up, but still overall cold, I am aggressive in the hand-drawn map but, But if we take the 2 coldest samples, 02-03,09-10 we get this Now check this out and this is something I think is DIRECTLY RELATED to the warmed state of the oceans because I can not find these samples when the oceans were colder, I was tipped off to the coming el nino in this past winter, and this is when I started researching this, I used it first to forecast a wet period in California and then the idea of another big responding wildfire season ( which is why I am involved in that little fight since the forecast went public in May for this year and earlier last year since the entire winter was wet. Interestingly enough, the California perma drought being touted by the same people touting the wildfires as a sign of their missive, if it did not reverse, would likely have meant less fuel for the wildfires. So being wrong on one thing ( the "perma drought" did not phase them, they simply moved on to another that was the result of them being wrong. In any case being involved in climate issues, LEAD TO THE RESEARCH ABOUT THE SOI THAT TIPPED ME OFF TO THIS AMAZING LINKAGE AND GOT THE ANALOG YEARS ROLLING EARLY FOR ME FOR THE HURRICANE FORECAST ( DOWN ACE THIS YEAR) AND NOW THE WINTER! This goes with the idea that the weather now means something going forward, when we see similarities in big-ticket items, its a hint, In each of the analog winters being used, at least one of the months JFM the winter before had a rapid drop in the SOI ( more than 10 lower than the previous month) 2002 2006 2009 2014 a double drop in the 14-15 el Nino was a modoki which is what I have been thinking is coming up Side note: clued us in on the wet March April for California off a dry Jan Feb common to all those years. So far as I know, I have not seen any research on the SOI a year before telegraphing a future winter This year! This is how ERRORS can correct you and give you knowledge Remember last year, I was sucked into thinking an el nino was coming, Well as I researched all this you see above, and I go back over my errors, let us take a look at the first 3 months of the SOI in 2017 NO BIG FALL ( over 10)! Its a classic example of learning by correction ( which the weather does quite often) Aside from being a link to a coming el nino, I think in analyzing the state of weather and climate today, this deserves research. Heres why We have this in 1997,1994,1986 but it becomes less frequent during those time ( there were Ninos that came on without it) and then pre 1985 it disappears! ( there is argument about 68-69 . ONI had it, but the SOI in the 3 months of the winter did not average lower than -8, the threshold for the SOI warm enso) The common denominator is the oceans were colder. But no matter WHAT THE REASON of late this has shown up and telegraphed the el Nino, You may ask, well what about the Super Nino on 1997-1998 why isn't that coming, Its here where the forecaster has to use his or her skill decide on which, when we look at the analogs picked out, for instance, they were all BETWEEN Super Ninos ( the most recent being 16-17) the idea is that the Super Ninos may reshuffle the playing field more when the SST globally is warmer. Its an idea, but I love to real-time battle test them, for instance, last years use of analogs based on the global tropical activity and the disparity! But it is not like this stuff is just all hocus pocus voodoo. There are real implications not only for heat but the Trend. For instance, let us say you see this and you go to all the samples where you can find that pattern. There may be a dozen. But HOW YOU GOT THERE can show you where you are going and eliminate other patterns where you may see the same thing, but not be going to the same place if in one sample you are coming from the lower left and there is no change, you wind up very different than when you are coming from another direction. This may be the "problem" with the pioneer model we use in the times when there is warming, Its 500mb ideas the last 5 winters have been great, but the winters of 15-16, and 16-17 with the globe warmed from the enso and we are talking immense amount of water vapor launched into the atmosphere, the model was having trouble with temperatures. You have to understand this is a new model and its not called pioneer for no reason, But last year as the globe cooled, it was better, The concern is it is going to flat out nail the 500mb and temp this winter as the trajectory of temperatures will likely be such that its cooler than last year. The el Nino first effect if its the nino we are forecasting and looking at the blend of the years above implies a weak to moderate enso 3.4>1.2 and the warm Pacific ocean ring, both correlated with the colder looking pattern over large areas of the southern and eastern US A look at the Pioneer model temperatures ( it looks like the colder of the 2 analogs I have, 2002,2009) The models analogs and antilogs As you can see there are different years and in fact, one year I have is an antilog, (14-15) Giving me more reason to throw out the warm December, But what is fascinating is 2 different methods of looking at this are coming up with a similar temperature pattern..BTW I am currently researching hurricane seasons OPPOSITE last year hyperactive west, weak Atlantic ACE, but a) it is in the embryonic stages and b) we have to wait for the totals But when independently, methods are coming up with the same idea that is usually a sign the people doing it are on to something, I think the temperatures like last year and the colder winters will do better overall than the warm winters I think the pioneer model is as good as any out there, or at least worth the look. It certainly blows away the NMME which every year has very little cold over land masses from this far out, As warm as it is, there are places that get cold The SST forecast is close to the analogs As a general rule with modeling, because the model senses a source region for cold air being so warm as arctic winters are, where ever it sees a normal I am highly suspecting it will be cold. In any case we have a similar Pacific, but colder Atlantic So its no surprise when it comes up with this 500 mb Given the nature of ensembles which from this far out have to have outlying members that are countering this, Once they fall in, if it goes to the extreme, this is not strong enough, Hence my concern But it is only August Here is the pioneer model both show troughs in the east and blocking as does the Canadian Crucial to Europe is WHERE the blocking is strongest. If over Greenland its colder there The Last 10 days of the CFSV2 have a blowtorch ( as of this writing, which was Sunday, August 5) so you cant say there is not resistance do our idea. If you are looking at this, its opposite of what we are thinking But then again the negative i the Pacific where it is argues to watch for more trough over the east What I am doing here is showing you behind the scenes research. Check this out In the suspected most recent winters of 2002,2009 ( 2006 remains strong due to the MEI and the ACE analogs off post mega seasons of 2005,2017, but how long can that last) and 2014 we have some things to look at that may be clueing us in. Look at the colder sample US years, the preceding winter in South America ( summer up here) Look at the samples in 2006,2014 which had the very warm Decembers in the states check out this year Much closer to the colder samples the following winters ( Here is an interesting question, How many winter discussions have you seen talking about previous winters SOI drops of South American temperatures in their winter ha ha) My point is this, I have been alluding to a warm December, but there is a chance given what we saw with the Canadian and now the European that this winter starts early and stays late October hints at it November December Jan Feb ( as usual, all roads lead to February in el Nino years. Rare they are the warmest month and almost always coldest) , then we start looking to see if it runs the table to April or snaps) Word about Climate There is no question that no matter what the cause we have to deal with the state of the planet and the changes that can occur. What I am doing now is matching up events when they are thrown at me, doing the grunt work, finding the closest examples and then trying to apply them to what we are seeing so we can make a forecast, The weather since early 2017 has been flowing from one event into another, The 2 most interesting aspects of the past 2 years is 4 record-setting MJO amplifications given time of year in various phases, and the drop in the SST globally from its peak 3 years ago, In addition, one has to understand temperatures is a measure of energy, but its not linear. Rises, I believe caused by extra water vapor, in the Arctic lead to warmer winters up there and that extra water vapor leads to higher 500 mb heights ( Saturated air masses, if they have more water vapor will lead to higher wet bulbs and if you simply look at saturation mixing ratios, you see what that means!) so the tendency for blocking is always there until such time that there is a drop in the global water vapor and especially over the Arctic . I believe the oceans are the source, which seems intuitive since every time you get an el Nino we see the spikes, and it spikes much more in the polar regions in their winters than anywhere else and remains warmer longer. I pose the question, what if you raised the saturation mixing ratio only .1gram/kg everywhere over the entire planet lets say surface to 18k. What would you expect to see with time? Now think about what a warmed ocean is releasing into the atmosphere, then what a super Nino does compare to a regular el Nino? What should happen? What is warming the oceans? I have my ideas based on Bill Gray and a lot of Solar ideas, others believe other things, and that fine, but whatever the reason we have to deal with it. That is the bottom line! But thinking a 5-10 degree rise in the arctic winter temperatures and given that equal weight in computing a global temperature as the climate metric is not ideal IMO given what temperature really is and what low and high temperatures represent It is not a linear measure of energy, where 1 degree in the artic equals 1 degree in the tropics! . But digging in, we must react to what we are looking at but understand that what is important is what a 5-10 degree rise in coldest places most likely means to the water vapor, quite frankly given saturation mixing ratios. of what we need to know! anyway there has been a big drop since 2015 ( remember reaction lags) till now the drops in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, and in the tropical Pacific what has turned into a more gentle warm look with local hot spots have to have large-scale implications, The one year drop in the Atlantic basin last year this year and the Indian Ocean last year this year Has to have big MJO implications if this tries to hold into the winter season and in a large sense I think it will. It will focus stronger convection in the colder MJO phases for the US, So all this means we have to look. As I said its not just the pattern but how you are getting there and from where. But I do believe the changes in SST, WV, Sea Level Pressure, Global Wind Oscillation with the "climate" matter are all important in forecasting and dissecting them means that quite the opposite of some labels, we are all in trying to discern the meaning of where we are and where we are going, For now the verdict is that colder is fighting back and where large-scale cold does show up this winter it is likely not to take prisoners. The WV idea above and here is plenty of reason for blocking to take place given the increase of water vapor due to the overall warmth of the oceans of the past 20 years and still trying to wash out the super Nino ( minute increases in WV lead to quicker saturation and condensation and release of heat, hence the blocking over the pole. (That is a quick and dirty singular aspect) Solar activity, QBO etc being more, Arguments over the entire cause of that is best discussed at a bar over adult beverages ha ha. My point though is I AM SUPER SENSITIVE to where we are and do think it must be dealt with, The bottom line here is I would be looking closely at 2002, and 2009 winters as that is where we may take this, for now, the blended 4 are where we are. Thanks for reading, Hope you will check us out as we try to offer different insight to the why before the what on the weather.
  9. Hello the Massive Mammoth Monmouth Monster of Meteo explained to me that either I post on this site, or I could be sleeping with da fishes in New York Harbor after it freezes over this winter. Anyway our clients and premium members have our winter forecast and I will be posting here before we post it publicly ( most likely late tomorrow night) And the Saturday Summary I do on weatherbell.com will have it on, premium members have seen it, I dont normally go on the blogs, but when you see our winter forecast I think you are going to see some angles you may not have seen before. In addition, I had another post this morning to amplify what I did with one of those aspects, and I think it might be interesting. Finally for those not on our site, I am trying to entice you to come to it, because while there are great sites all over, we trying to real-time battle test new ideas, and as you will see in the winter forecast there are a couple this year, Last year I used that linkage to amplified ace to pick out a fast start to the winter. Its only in certain seasons ( can't use this year) but in the forecast there will be a couple of new things, To get you ready of one of them, here is a post that is on weatherbell.com about what I believe is something quite original in thinking, You know that song by the Wallflowers One Headlight, There is a line in that song, There's go to be Something better than in the middle. The majesty of the weather is more than just model blends, and most of the time it's not in the middle it goes one way or the other, That song is right, There is something better, and while we may all have our opinions on what that is, I try to show stuff that may not be common knowledge. I don't get on blogs much ( I will occasionlly here and another great one I know) but I know we all share a love that cant be taken ( I look at it as living proof of Gods undying light) the weather, and that is a tie that binds all of us in any case here is the post Quite frankly I am more excited by what I am about to show you than the winter outlook. My whole l career has been one of building off others from the foundations they set. I have never, until now perhaps, ever discovered something in my field, that is original, I have taken what I learned from others and tried to build off it, But as I type these words, I am actually trembling. And the great irony of it, its because of the warming of the planet that this new hypothesis has come out Pay very careful attention The 97-98 Super Nino and the flip to a warm AMO reshuffled the climate deck When we look at JFM SST in the winters before 1955-1985 we see this Here are the JFM SOI for the following el Nino years no rapid fall 1963 no rapid fall 1965 No rapid fall There is an argument about 68-69 It shows up in the ONI but there is no -8 over 3 months the following winter in the SOI but we will show it, but note the response but it is an exception to the rule if we let it in, Still only 1 but the following winter it does not average -8 but notice there is no rapid fall in early 69 to telegraph the 69-70 el Nino so the 69-70 el Nino was in the same genre as the other ones Nor is there one in 1972 which was a strong one or 1976 ( we were already in the 76-77 el nino in 1977 so we cant used that. again the 68-69 tandem can be argued about but its 1 exception) You would think in 1982, with the strength of that it would show almost ( 9) but again below the threshold So the conclusion is, with one arguable exception, there was no hint in the SOI with rapid falls of a coming el nino almost a year away But it started showing up in the mid 1980s. This was after the PDO shifted and so it may have some link it almost did in 91 almost did in 1994 but really there was no conclusive response outside of 1986 and then left no doubt in 1997 and that is when the deck got shuffled Again my theory, the super Ninos dont just come and go in the climate, they leave behind long-standing shadows of increased WV, very very slight but making the biggest difference where its coldest. . 72-73 and 82-83 were strong el Ninos but the Atlantic was cold, The Atlantic went into its warm phase in the mid-90s and then the signal started showing up and almost every time! But look what happened in the Arctic in our sample rapid drop winters before the el nino, where again warming of very cold dry air is most prominent in the winter the year before there is a distinct cold pool in the Pacific JFM ( samples 1997,2002,2006,2009,2014,2018) The Arctic is now much warmer and the hits start coming 1997 lets use it as the great divide So the idea here is the changing of the Atlantic again here is pre 1985 the whole year look at how cold the atlantic is to the entire picture since 1997 Has reshuffled the deck, It is not the enso regions that have warmed overall. My take is the change in the Atlantic in tandem with the super Nino of 1997 reshuffled the deck. The result of that warming then lead to the arctic warming again by the resulting increase in water vapor because of warming oceans, That in turn has its own feedback and so as per the winter forecast, the 4 analog years plus this year ALL HAD RAPID DROPS SOMETIME IN JFM IN THE SOI. But what about the phantom nino of 2004. Well here is where hurricanes can tell you something perhaps in this current warm cycle. It was a hyper year Was there a big drop in the SOI NO a big rise The fall waited till later But now look at the SST in the JFM before Its COLDER in the Arctic for one, There is no distinct cold pool in the central Pacific, and the Atlantic is warm in a classic big season hurricane fashion So it sticks out like a sore thumb against what has been the rule. So there is a reason for why its the exception What is the bottom line here in my opinion Well first of all if there is research on it, I have not seen it, If someone else has done it, that means independently we are seeing the same things But the so-called great Climatic shift occurred IMO in the mid-90s or at least it was a second one with the warming of the AMO and the Super Nino That super nino, combined with the flip of the AMO reshuffled the deck If I was not involved in the climate situation I would not have seen this, What a blessing it is to have the tools to research and the opposition to my own thinking to get me to dig in to this, The pause occurred after a major step up that can be explained by the AMO changing and the amount of Water vapor thrown into the air by that Super Nino, If there is no long-term response in the oceans to cool, guess what happens? It stays warm overall, but at a higher level. But now think of this, looking at Dr Roy Spencers chart, you can see clearly the change in the level of warmth after that 97-98 Super Nino and the change to the warm amo. It reacts first then finds its leveling point But in that "pause" period which is clearly warmer than the 20 years before, we then saw the El Nino signals referenced above. Why did we not include the super nino of 15-16? ? Because there was an el nino the year before! 1997 went right into the super nino from the neutral to cool state. And that may be the problem with the 2004 sample, there was little-sustained drop in the SST between 02 and 03. The key to the discovery is having the cooler pool, as you can see in the sample above but let me show you again with the contrasting warm, the very warm arctic centered to the north of Scandinavia and a less warm Atlantic ring, Since the super nino and shift of the AMO ( also the Indian ocean is less warm than the western Pacific something not seen in 2004) in these samples it has looked like this the JFM before an el nino But the fact we are getting one after another example now all showing the same thing almost a year out is significant Now here is the question what is keeping it warmer than normal, Say what you want about how much its cooled since 2015-2016 its still the warmest we have seen globally 2-3 years after a nino, Is it aerosols? Well until such time it cools, that argument can be made I believe the super nino again launched tremendous amounts of WV into the air. But the big difference between now and 1997 and why the entire climate debate COULD BE ANSWERED WITHIN THE NEXT 10-15 YEARS is the flip in the AMO and low solar. Should the AMO flip to cold and the low solar people have their way, there will be a response colder. If there is not, what is left. My position given that where the increase is mostly in the polar regions in their winters and long-standing views but understand why it is a debate point. The bottom line is, as I say we have to deal with it, and the examples shown here can not just be some kind of coincidence To quote Julie Andrews in the Sound of Music ( bet you weren't ready for that) "nothing comes from nothing, nothing ever could" ( sing along, So somewhere in my youth or childhood I must have gotten a snowstorm that was good...) But I think this is something. I think its significant in forecasting, I think its making a statement to at least be examined in climate and above all, its why trying to have an open mind about both things and a sense of why before the what can lead you to treasures you may have ever imagined The risk is it could be fools gold too, but it sure is fun trying to find out I shudder to think where I would be today if not having the chance with who I work for to look deeply into this stuff. Its a matter of showing you things you may not have seen before for one, That's what we do go beyond what we know to what we may not know. But I also shudder to think if not for questions not only from the weather but from the debate raging over what is driving all this, I would not be curious enough to look at all this, If it was all a slam dunk, then whats the use?
  10. This will be the final share on this matter, but I just want to show one more time the idea behind why the SOI link to a coming nino has been showing up in the winter before Always love challenges, and the challenges to the modoki Idea I have are certainly there across the board. And I guess in revealing all this, there is a risk involved that alot of research gets beaten back if there is not what I think is coming. The euro has the kind of look I envision for the winter in the SST This looks like the blend of the analog years. There is no big powerful enso event coming on, but the kind of late starting event some of the big winters we have loved ( starting in the 3 month period mid-summer or later) that have been the big winters. The current negative SOI drop will work wonders I think with the SST over the coming weeks and months But there is more involved here for me on a personal level, just like last winter, when I revealed something I had been working on for winter having to do with hurricanes, but this is a bit more ramped up with the SOI, for I believe there are climate implications that can be researched to help improve forecasting, Its not saying anything about the cause, as you know I have my opinion, but by what the result of a warmer look means, and in this case the experiment here would mean the discovery of a signal in this current warm climate cycle, that can tell us when an el nino off a cold event is on the way. The ones in what was a cold period of climate in the last 60 years, relative to the last 25-30 years had this look These are JFM with NO sudden drop the winter before Look what we have had in the researched based analog years ( JFM) Much warmer. Look at this year ( JFM) The west pac difference is there! My hypothesis on why this is showing a signal is because of the warming of the ocean creates a feedback that due to the increase in temperatures in this crucial areas, changes in sea level pressure patterns are more amplified due to greater energy inherent in the warmer source regions, With the enso 3.4 being cold, the greater temperature difference between the west pac and central pac may mean high and low pressures in the areas that determine the SOI readings may be more amplified, Interestingly enough, a lot of the el Ninos since 1976 ( I don't have the data before) had a major amplitude in JFM at some time the winter before, so that is another aspect for study Last year, of course, had a major amplitude but think about the change in the SST, convective feedback and what it may mean to Sea Level pressure patterns which determine the SOI. The link we have is the warmer look the last 25-30 years in SST ( again I believe that is a natural cyclical event) vs the much cooler look before which would have the effect of dampening the signal
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