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The ingredients are coming together for a middle of the road lake effect snow event downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Doesn't appear to be a blockbuster, at least from my analysis, but the first for most of us in the area so it's worth digging into. Exact placement and intensity of bands remains a question mark, but it's looking like the I90 corridor between Rochester and Buffalo, the south towns of Buffalo, and Ski Country is under the gun from Lake Erie and the Watertown area from Lake Ontario. The flow will largely have a SW component to it over both lakes. Much colder air will arrive late tonight into tomorrow morning with 850's bottoming out to around -10C. Lake Erie is currently about 7C at the Buffalo Water Treatment facility so enough of a difference for a lake response. Lack of moisture is a bit of a concern given the source of the incoming shot of arctic air. It seems like it will be too dry for this event to make any real headlines or to slow any of us locals down. Never-the-less, Winter Storm Watches (RIP Lake Effect Snow Watches) have been in place for a couple days now. I would expect them to be upgraded to Lake Effect Snow warnings sometime this morning for Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming Counties from Lake Erie. Maybe Jefferson and Lewis Counties from Lake Ontario. I live in the suburbs of Rochester, on the southwest side. I live in a position that's a target from both lakes. If the Lake Erie band has some legs behind it, I can regularly pickup shovel worthy snow. I wish the winds were a little stronger looking, but I think I'll still pickup some snow I'll be able to measure. I'll report any measurements here. The National Weather Service in Buffalo released the following snowfall map this morning for the band off Erie.