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Found 24 results

  1. Because it’s never to early and seasonal models look exciting. Weak nino’s typically treat us well. Can’t wait
  2. NAM 12km
  3. Precipitation associated with a system cutting through the lakes may cause headaches during Friday's morning commute in the tri-state area. The precip will continue into the early afternoon for locations NE of NYC, into CT & SNE. Discuss away.
  4. Frank’s Weather

    3 Models and Their Differences

    Let's talk about three models for our system this week. This has been a topic of much discussion as we get excited for another potential snowstorm. So here we go! First time posting, so I hope you like it. GFS: The GFS is the weakest model out of these three, being much less potent overall. As you can see, it isn't as powerful with our energy and doesn't dig as much, leading to a weaker and less snowier solution. CMC: This one is stronger than the GFS, but isn't as strong as the NAM. Here it really digs the energy allowing for a stronger solution. Anyone south of the city gets hammered here. NAM: This is by far the most potent of all these models. It pushes lots of energy to the north while still digging, which allows for an all out snowstorm along I-95 and other areas. Definitely not out of the question, and it has other short range guidance supporting it. This is one to watch. From a nuisance snow to a crippling blizzard, anything is on the table. Hope to hear your thoughts as well! Let's track this thing!
  5. Cheers ladies and gents! Lets start off the 00z runs in a big way!
  6. Looks like a decent event possible Wednesday for many in the northeast. Discuss!
  7. Let's get this started!!!! Good luck everyone! 29/13 here
  8. Superstorm93

    Storm Nostalgia

    Decided to make a thread where everyone can share their past memories, photos, and whatever else you feel like regarding winter storms of the past. I decided to throw up some images from the Jan 26-27, 2011 "Blizzard" since it came up in a recent discussion. I also have around 3,400 images from the past eight years just for the winter season, so don't be afraid to ask if I have something. Also, I'm sure @uncle w has some awesome stories to share of many of the KU's in the past years. Might do something for the BDB as we get closer to the seventh anniversary of that amazing storm. GFS five days ahead: ECMWF as we got closer: First major snow storm for the HRRR way back in the day ULL moving across the south and picking up moisture (notice the mini tornado outbreak in Florida) Storm really getting its act together: ' First reports of +TSSN Storm at its peak intensity and one of my favorite sat images to this day: (I have many more of there, so if you need or want any others, just shoot me a PM)
  9. Pattern change coming that will bring below normal temps to the Northeast.
  10. Tomorrow clipper/coastal low continues to trend more interesting for the coast. Certainly going to be an interesting 00z suite. Regardless, really liking the soundings/profiles for SNJ and portions of LI tomorrow afternoon. Nice DGZ and a good amount of omega to potentially create some localized/brief heavy snow.
  11. Just thought we should keep an eye on this, since many of you are watching this across the NE:
  12. NJwxguy78

    Snowpack Tracker

    With some members having accumulations already for the ‘17-18 season, thought it might be time to track who has what. @Jack Sillin , @SebagoWx, and other New Englanders might have something to share!
  13. The ingredients are coming together for a middle of the road lake effect snow event downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Doesn't appear to be a blockbuster, at least from my analysis, but the first for most of us in the area so it's worth digging into. Exact placement and intensity of bands remains a question mark, but it's looking like the I90 corridor between Rochester and Buffalo, the south towns of Buffalo, and Ski Country is under the gun from Lake Erie and the Watertown area from Lake Ontario. The flow will largely have a SW component to it over both lakes. Much colder air will arrive late tonight into tomorrow morning with 850's bottoming out to around -10C. Lake Erie is currently about 7C at the Buffalo Water Treatment facility so enough of a difference for a lake response. Lack of moisture is a bit of a concern given the source of the incoming shot of arctic air. It seems like it will be too dry for this event to make any real headlines or to slow any of us locals down. Never-the-less, Winter Storm Watches (RIP Lake Effect Snow Watches) have been in place for a couple days now. I would expect them to be upgraded to Lake Effect Snow warnings sometime this morning for Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming Counties from Lake Erie. Maybe Jefferson and Lewis Counties from Lake Ontario. I live in the suburbs of Rochester, on the southwest side. I live in a position that's a target from both lakes. If the Lake Erie band has some legs behind it, I can regularly pickup shovel worthy snow. I wish the winds were a little stronger looking, but I think I'll still pickup some snow I'll be able to measure. I'll report any measurements here. The National Weather Service in Buffalo released the following snowfall map this morning for the band off Erie.
  14. Whelp, new storm threat, new thread. This is a place to discuss the late March (~3/27) snow threat. It looks to be of the overrunning/isentropically forced nature with a large Canadian high digging in ahead of a slug of moisture coming up the Ohio Valley. With a strong EPS signal at Day 8, this will be a fun one to watch!
  15. With at least a minor snow event looking likely across the northeast this weekend, let's keep an eye on the short-term models and surface changes!
  16. With a general forecast of 2-24" for the immediate NY Metro area, we've setup a new contest to guess the total snow accumulation which will be reported at 2 key NYC reporting stations. Central Park Newark, NJ The person coming closest in both stations wins. The prize is a $50 Amazon gift card. Deadline to enter is 11:59PM tonight, 3/13. Good Luck to all!
  17. Several weeks ago, a few members of the 33andrain Dream Team saw a pattern unfolding in the long range. The long range became the mid range, and though the models diverged, our Weather Expert members did not; several remained committed to the potential for a Significant, if not Major, East Coast Snow Event. We had three radio shows with the NYMW crew & guests: They included @earthlight, @CCB!, @Superstorm93, @Weathergun, & @Dsnowx53 . There have been valuable thoughts shared by @BMC10, @Isotherm, @Wxoutlooksblog, @Frank_Wx, @DualJet, @donsutherland1, and many more. We are approaching the final hours: The Euro, GFS, CMC, UK, and additional foreign models have just a couple of runs left before the first flakes fly. The RGEM, SREFs, NAM, HRRR, and other close-range models are important, but the guidance from our resident experts is more important. As an increasingly serious situation unfolds, please let the conversation flow. During model run times, let those who know, share. And, Go. As @earthlight would say, wishing everyone feet and feet of snow.
  18. Today, from Noon - 2pm ET, 33andrain and New York Metro Wx will host another special edition of the WeatherEyes program, with NYMW panelists @earthlight, @Dsnowx53, @Weathergun and @Superstorm93 sounding off on the exciting winter weather events about to impact our area. We're very excited to have the opportunity to host the show again! Please keep all questions here, and the NYMW team will attempt to get to as many as possible! Stay tuned for live updates, analysis, and commentary Saturday!
  19. All posts regarding the Thursday evening/Friday snowstorm will be posted in this thread to prevent confusion due to multiple threats. 15z hi-res SREF's highlighting northern areas getting a shot at over .5" of QPF
  20. My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows: The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.
  21. The next chance for precipitation comes when the vigorous northern stream energy and its associated cold front move across this afternoon. The HRRR, NAM12, NAM-4km, and the experimental NAM- 3km continue to indicate a broken band of convective activity moving quickly across the region from west to east this afternoon into the early evening. Boundary layer warming is likely to take place this morning, with temperatures warming well into the 40s across Long Island, NYC metro, and NE NJ with upper 30s to lower 40s across the interior. There does not appear to be a surge of colder air back into the region until after the northern stream energy passes this evening. Any activity across the southern portion of the area will be in the form of rain showers, but if there is any wet bulbing in heavier activity across the interior, than a few snow showers would be possible. A quick dusting could occur in these snow showers if they are able to cool the column enough before translating east.
  22. NJwxguy78

    Twitter - Important Update!

    Hey Folks, As you know, part of our mission is to pull some of the weather conversation from the twitter machine back into a forum - like this - to expand and develop a conversation. The 140-character twitter limit is just not enough to explain complex meteorological processes, and the weather community as a whole seems to be lost in social media. We also have a no-hype policy on twitter regarding weather events. Sure, we tout special maps or models (like #dougmaps!), but part of our goal is to tone down the hysteria out there. If you have a twitter handle, please share it here or pm me so that we can follow you - if you are a met and have a twitter handle, let us feature you! If you do not have a twitter handle and feel unsure about how to build out on twitter, pm me and I'll be happy to help. The overarching goal here is open sharing of ideas - that's why we have staff here from all of the other big forums. We are not competing, we are trying to take down the silos that have been built in the Wx community. We will be happy to promote your material, and be proud if you promote @33andrain on twitter! Thanks!
  23. Delayed...but not denied? It is within 150hrs..but I am still weary. However, seems the models are catching on to the fact that our "inside runner"/cutter will not be as warm as we thought. We get the usual Nward push we have seen w/ most tracks this yr...but maybe this one get enough E push to break that? What IS encouraging is the upper levels. Nice (-) trough, got the High parked over us right before = fresh injection of cold air. What has to be watched w/ this is it is quite similar to our last storm of the type, and the gulf is gonna open wide..alotta warm air advection w/ it, and deep moisture..so it is very possible, with a storm track slightly more N/NW that we erase the hopes of the "snow" and go to quick snow thump-->ice-->rain. Storms have been trending NW in the SR guidance, look at the coastal low in beginning of Jan, or Blizzard 2016...Actually some cool research on this, and whether it is a model bias to be too far ESE w/ QPF field and dynamics/track, or if the storms are actually trending more NW than they use to. If you guys know @KOPNweatherteam on twitter, who helps run organicforecasting.com, his name is Joe Renken (great guy)...he came up w/ the BSR tool, and he has been doing this research w/ Anthony Lupo (Also another great guy) I could see a big snow-->slop for New England possible, IF it stays the way it is progged now...or goes colder. But anticipate the "windshield wiper effect" (Bernie Rayno's saying) until we get closer. Then we await whats next?
  24. Would still watch @Dsnowx53 mauler as it's been trending wetter the last few runs. South jersey could get 2-4. Sunday night
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