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Found 10 results

  1. Because it’s never to early and seasonal models look exciting. Weak nino’s typically treat us well. Can’t wait
  2. Looks like a decent event possible Wednesday for many in the northeast. Discuss!
  3. Tomorrow clipper/coastal low continues to trend more interesting for the coast. Certainly going to be an interesting 00z suite. Regardless, really liking the soundings/profiles for SNJ and portions of LI tomorrow afternoon. Nice DGZ and a good amount of omega to potentially create some localized/brief heavy snow.
  4. Just thought we should keep an eye on this, since many of you are watching this across the NE:
  5. I am loving what I am seeing here in the guidance! This set up screams of winter weather potential, maybe even a storm or two before or around Christmas. If you like winter storms, you want to see this pattern. If you like cold weather, you will LOVE this pattern. Plus, I am getting a lot of observations stating this block is not going away any time soon. The best part of this 10-day forecast is that this data is supported by observations. In all forecasting, observations should always lead the way. This is why when someone sends me a 300 HR GFS forecast I ask, okay show me the observations that would get you to this solution? What's your trigger? What's the process? In this case, the triggers and process to get from point A to Z is right in front of us and it is so much fun to watch!
  6. Whelp, new storm threat, new thread. This is a place to discuss the late March (~3/27) snow threat. It looks to be of the overrunning/isentropically forced nature with a large Canadian high digging in ahead of a slug of moisture coming up the Ohio Valley. With a strong EPS signal at Day 8, this will be a fun one to watch!
  7. Today, from Noon - 2pm ET, 33andrain and New York Metro Wx will host another special edition of the WeatherEyes program, with NYMW panelists @earthlight, @Dsnowx53, @Weathergun and @Superstorm93 sounding off on the exciting winter weather events about to impact our area. We're very excited to have the opportunity to host the show again! Please keep all questions here, and the NYMW team will attempt to get to as many as possible! Stay tuned for live updates, analysis, and commentary Saturday!
  8. My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows: The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.
  9. Hey Folks, As you know, part of our mission is to pull some of the weather conversation from the twitter machine back into a forum - like this - to expand and develop a conversation. The 140-character twitter limit is just not enough to explain complex meteorological processes, and the weather community as a whole seems to be lost in social media. We also have a no-hype policy on twitter regarding weather events. Sure, we tout special maps or models (like #dougmaps!), but part of our goal is to tone down the hysteria out there. If you have a twitter handle, please share it here or pm me so that we can follow you - if you are a met and have a twitter handle, let us feature you! If you do not have a twitter handle and feel unsure about how to build out on twitter, pm me and I'll be happy to help. The overarching goal here is open sharing of ideas - that's why we have staff here from all of the other big forums. We are not competing, we are trying to take down the silos that have been built in the Wx community. We will be happy to promote your material, and be proud if you promote @33andrain on twitter! Thanks!
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