***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 15 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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On the Weeklies, Mostly N temps through October, cooling to mostly BN temps by mid-November. ?

eps_t2m_768h_conus_129.png

eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185.png

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last year we did get some snow the first part of December...I still like 1968-69 and 1963-64 as analogs...if this winter flows the way 1963-64 did we would get the first measurable snow on Dec 12th...some more light snow around the 19th...a snowstorm on the 23rd-24th...some light snow after Christmas...temperatures average below normal for the month...A January thaw early then colder the second week with a major snowstorm..the second half of January was all thaw until the last few days...February had frequent snows from the 8th-20th...the month ends with more snow...a little Spring the first week of March...a noreaster the first day of Spring...40-50" across the area...

1968-69 had a back lash snowstorm on Dec 15th...cold and dry Christmas day...a little snow ending as rain on the 27th... January was benign with one light snow event...February starts off benign but with seasonably cold air and a storm combine for 15-20" of snow...the month was on the cold side with some more light wet snow events...March is cold the first two weeks with two snowfalls...the first one was a near miss major storm...Atlantic city got 12"...NYC 3"...Port Jervis NY 33"...Boston got raked the second half of February...both 1963-64 and 1968-69 were very negative AO/Nao winters...both years did not get colder than 9 degrees...the temperature in 1968-69 stayed below 50 from late Dec. to mid March...

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6 hours ago, 33andrain said:

At this point, per the Weeklies, temps are governed mostly by the persistent -EPO and flow of cold into the CONUS from Canada. This regime of dumping troughs into the MW and then departing them before they make it all the way east, continues for much of the Weeklies run. AO and NAO are mostly positive. Fine with all of it. What I absolutely do not want to see if a relatively warm Canada with limited snowcover through the end of October. I'm so sick of back-loaded Winters. Snow is best between December 15 and February 15th, when pack can be built as the foundation for lasting memories.

:yesplease:

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8 hours ago, 33andrain said:

At this point, per the Weeklies, temps are governed mostly by the persistent -EPO and flow of cold into the CONUS from Canada. This regime of dumping troughs into the MW and then departing them before they make it all the way east, continues for much of the Weeklies run. AO and NAO are mostly positive. Fine with all of it.

 

The points I made last page on the SST of the WPO and EPO region are going to Flood and overwhelm OH CANADA with cold arctic/Siberian air and then drive it our way ala 2014-15 - hopefully no friggin recurving typhoon (Nuri) screws this up for us like then ( I know there were other factors but this beast causes a rebooting of what we had in place for a few weeks if ya'll recall)

 

 

 

EPO Region.png

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Here is how I feel about winter on this board!!

 

 

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El Niño really starting to take hold now 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

El Niño really starting to take hold now 

This might end up being a basin wide event

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15 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

This might end up being a basin wide event

No goodski for a rocking winter 

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31 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

This might end up being a basin wide event

Looks modoki 

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Right on cue Boyz Beaufort block pedecessor to winter.

From our own @snow_cohen!

 

 

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4 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

This might end up being a basin wide event

No thanks.

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What does a basin wide event mean? Sorry new with  terminology. Thanks.  

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Just now, Nchaboy said:

What does a basin wide event mean? Sorry new with  terminology. Thanks.  

Typically a torch winter with rain along I95.

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59 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Typically a torch winter with rain along I95.

Well that’s not good for us:(. Hopefully that’s wrong. 

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1 hour ago, Nchaboy said:

What does a basin wide event mean? Sorry new with  terminology. Thanks.  

You will get a raging pac Jet with storms crashing into the west coast. The air would be all pac puke. Only way to prevent it would be a neg nao. So in summary it would be a complete nightmare. 

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if the AO is negative late Nov and into December it could be a fast start to winter...it happened last year but as soon as the ao went positive it torched before Christmas...Timing for a white Christmas has been off for a long time now except for some localized snow squalls Christmas eve...it still amazes me that I grew up when a White Christmas was becoming the norm...that faded as I grew out of my teenager years and a white Christmas became something you see on TV...

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