***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 2 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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Me homestead & Antony!!!

 

 

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**Aleet Aleet**

 

This winter will feature the best analysis that you can't find anywhere else.  

 

Only @ 33andrain.

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7 hours ago, ModRisk said:

**Aleet Aleet**

 

This winter will feature the best analysis that you can't find anywhere else.  

 

Only @ 33andrain.

:best: 

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Can't wait and before Tim and Geo start,  I am way ahead of you. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Can't wait and before Tim and Geo start,  I am way ahead of you. 

:roll: 

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13 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Can't wait and before Tim and Geo start,  I am way ahead of you. 

 

 

:right:

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@Snowy Hibbo just saved Winter. Wish we could keep the -qbo negative too but can’t win em all. Great post!

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

@Snowy Hibbo just saved Winter. Wish we could keep the -qbo negative too but can’t win em all. Great post!

1977-1978 winter the QBO switched from Negative to Positive.

 

2010-2011 winter was a solid +QBO winter as was 2013-14. 

 

Many other factors to iron out yet. I like the fact that the WAR is in the North Atlantic and there is no SE Ridging which helps with blocking for the winter months. The big Heat ridge we experienced the first week in July had the Ridge over Quebec. During the winter, that would be a frigid HP and if Gulf moisture gets involved....the possibilities are endless. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Andrew Maddis said:

1977-1978 winter the QBO switched from Negative to Positive.

 

2010-2011 winter was a solid +QBO winter as was 2013-14. 

 

Many other factors to iron out yet. I like the fact that the WAR is in the North Atlantic and there is no SE Ridging which helps with blocking for the winter months. The big Heat ridge we experienced the first week in July had the Ridge over Quebec. During the winter, that would be a frigid HP and if Gulf moisture gets involved....the possibilities are endless. 

 

 

I know we can still cash in with a +qbo. I'm looking for 100" this winter though. Need everything to fall into place.

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8 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

I know we can still cash in with a +qbo. I'm looking for 100" this winter though. Need everything to fall into place.

Agree. 

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Just at to add to snow hibbo post to a point that low solar which we are in heading lower if you have not seen lately here it is

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days 
2018 total: 116 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 27 Jul 2018

 

this will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for teh big boys to start to align as they did in other otehr solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause teh gravitational pull on teh sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting. So what is all this information pionting towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning teh oceans especially teh pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly. Interesting but I like Snowy coming on this early and showing great information that is exciting.

 

I am sure their are many on here that can elaborate much more and explain more than me the average smo learning this information and trying to share it at best on here. If so please add and correct/modify as you know.

 

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11 hours ago, amugs said:

Just at to add to snow hibbo post to a point that low solar which we are in heading lower if you have not seen lately here it is

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days 
2018 total: 116 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 27 Jul 2018

 

this will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for teh big boys to start to align as they did in other otehr solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause teh gravitational pull on teh sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting. So what is all this information pionting towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning teh oceans especially teh pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly. Interesting but I like Snowy coming on this early and showing great information that is exciting.

 

I am sure their are many on here that can elaborate much more and explain more than me the average smo learning this information and trying to share it at best on here. If so please add and correct/modify as you know.

 

All of those are possible. But I am afraid that you are looking at small details IMO. We need a proper above ground volcanic explosion. Too many variables below the ocean.

 

I can't discuss the planetary alignment, as I haven't read that research. Would you be able to provide a link? But I think it is small change versus the bigger factors like NH snow & ice cover, ENSO, SSTs, QBO, Stratosphere, etc. There's so much to cover, and my post above isn't even the tip of the iceberg. But in the times we look at small, tiny details, we need to look back at the big picture. And consider all of the factors, rather than the convenient and the easy ones on various platforms. 

 

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On 7/27/2018 at 2:58 AM, Snowy Hibbo said:

I posted this originally elsewhere, but is relevant to this conversation.

 

"The current ENSO projections are in fact, heading towards Borderline or Weak Nino (based on BoM standards). This correlates with -AO/-NAO, which increases the chance of snowfall in the East 
figure4-4.pngIn addition to this, we are still in a negativeQBOphase, we may still be in that phase in winter. This supports a -AO/-NAO winter, but it is currently slowly changing towards a positive QBO, that would improve Western snowfall chances. The solar situation also supports a -AO/-NAO (better for the East), and then there is also the interesting volcanic activity. For those who don't know, a large-scale, either high sulfur level, or stratospheric(very high into the atmosphere) volcanic explosion can increase snowfall chances substantially. And decreases your chance of sunny days.

The oceanic temperature gradients in the Pacific and Atlantic could also be something to watch for funneling of snow bearing systems and atmospheric rivers (latter referring to Pacific Ocean). Interesting to see the ice cover remaining higher than expected, as said that could induce Greenland Blocking which would mean a -NAO. High North American Snow Cover induces a more +AO setup, that would help the Western slopes. Vice versa with high Greenland snow cover, through different mechanisms. Certainly an interesting setup, will wait for details to firm up though before making any big calls."

 

Just to that, I reckon the East could be in for a big year IMO. The indicators are leaning that way quite a lot. It's a big call, but I reckon it might be on the money. I'll check back in regularly, especially in September and October, when I go back to posting a lot here.

 

Oh and there's also this from EC. Don't see it too often.

IMG_4842.PNG

 

 

I don't want too much blocking ( 2009-2010 )

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From Ventrice.

 

 

 

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we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters...

season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall...

1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season...

1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season...

1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell...

1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter...

1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season...

1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell...

2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season...

2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

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100” here we come! Great stats unc. 

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8 hours ago, 33andrain said:

100” here we come! Great stats unc. 

getting at least 50% more snow would make next winter historic...because I'm getting old and can't deal with the winter any more it will probably happen...on the other hand the streak of 30" or greater seasons has to end sometime and there is a first time for everything...

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