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swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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Gfs keeps showing a storm for the end of this month.

 

Rain here but snow well inland. Most likely fantasy but it's nice to see.

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^^^^ To the maps posted above by 33&Rain  - On October 23rd 2002 I remember coaching varsity soccer and two days before I was in shorts coaching a game and this day 10-23-02 we had a cold front move through- it went from morning light jacket to sleet when I was on the field in the middle of the practice freezing my balls off. It never relinquished that winter .

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41 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

gfs_z500a_namer_44.png

 

Now if we could just hold that look for 90 days , I'm in.

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SST check-in. Still not seeing the kind of 1+2 cooling I'd like to see and we are approaching Winter forecast season in just 2-3 weeks. 

nino34.png

nino12.png

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11 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

SST check-in. Still not seeing the kind of 1+2 cooling I'd like to see.

nino34.png

nino12.png

Just sayin', if a hurricane can go from CAT 1 to 4 in 24-30 hours, then maybe 1.2 is waiting to do something similar with cooling.

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13 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

Just sayin', if a hurricane can go from CAT 1 to 4 in 24-30 hours, then maybe 1.2 is waiting to do something similar with cooling.

tenor.gif?itemid=7713620

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Here's a look at SSTA's for the month of September.

 

ssta-gl_color.gif

 

ENSO region 1+2 appeared to have warmed up substantially. The ONI values were negative for much of August and September but as of the last update for Week 01 of October it is up to +0.7. There is a lot of volatility with SSTA's in this region because its depth is shallow compared to the other regions. I would not put a whole lot stock into the warm-up here just yet.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Last 7 days we're still seeing continued warmth over 1+2 and cooling over 3.4 and 4 regions. We'll see how this plays out in the month of October with the MJO currently in phase 2-3 heading into the COD.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Check out that warm pool in the GOA. Thats quite something. More -EPO/+PNA and less -NAO? Thats been the theme for the last 5 winters now.

 

4nxkbd7.thumb.png.4e6c551d440bc6046f66e2

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I like the look of this so far.  I can`t say yet that the entire basin does not warm , but I am quite confident that more warmth will show up bet 140 - 180 over the next 8 weeks.

 

 

Sea Temp Anomaly

Sea Temps

 

 

 

Sea Temps

 

Sea Temp Anomaly

 

Sea Temp Anomaly

Sea Temp Anomaly

These like to spread back.

 

The cold water around Australia ( present now ) sinks air there and pushes U/M around the D/L if we can get that to warm.

 

Image result for oct 2009 sst

 

 

Image result for oct 2009 sst

 

 

Image result for oct  2014 sst

 

 

 

 

Image result for nov  2014 sst

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This cold front will finally disperse that stupid Bermuda ridge. True fall is here to stay, at last! And the upcoming winter, oh boy, things have been looking great on both the recent seasonal models and observations!

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