***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 3 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, uncle w said:

we are coming off two years of la nina winters..these are the other el nino years following at least two la nina winters or weak negatives...as long as the el nino stays weak to moderate the chances for more snow than last winter goes up...except for the super el nino years of 72-73 and 97-98 NYC got at least 50% more snowfall than the previous winters...

season peak oni...DJF oni...NYC snowfall...

1951-52......1.2......0.5...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1957-58......1.8......1.8...almost double the amount of snowfall over the previous winter...

1963-64......1.4......1.1...three times the amount of snow over the previous season...

1968-69......1.1......1.1...50% more snow than the previous season...

1972-73......2.1......1.8...very strong el nino...I doubt this year gets that strong...very little snow fell...

1976-77......0.9......0.7...50% more snow than the previous winter...

1986-87......1.2......1.2...almost double the amount of snow over the previous season...

1997-98......2.4......2.2...very strong el nino...I doubt it gets that strong...very little snow fell...

2002-03......1.3......0.9...10-15 times more snowfall than the previous season...

2009-10......1.6......1.5...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

2014-15......0.7......0.6...double the amount of snow than the previous season...

I was thinking 2013-14 when I said double the amount than the previous winter...2014-15 still had twice the normal amounts...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unc is saving unc who is saving winter!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My one troubling concern is a First year NINA that is normal to above normal with snowfall is followed by warmth and below normal snowfall the following year.

 

1973-74-normal snowfall

1974-75 below normal snowfall and mild.

1983-84 normal snowfall decent cold

1984-85 near normal snowfall but only 3 weeks of decent cold, warm DEC warm end of FEB and March.

1995-96 record snowfall with decent cold.

1996-97 way below normal snowfall and very warm

2000-01 decent cold and above average snowy winter.

2001-02 Disaster of a winter.

2005-06 Warm but Above normal snowfall.

2006-07 very warm first half with no snow, cold second half with mostly sleet and below normal snowfall.

2010-11 Very snowy and cold until February Well above normal snowfall.

2011-12 Disaster. Warmest DEC1-MARCH 31st period on record little snowfall.

 

2013-14..2014-15 did break the horrible streak, lets hope we see a repeat this winter. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we have not had a la nina winter followed by a weak positive one...we had years that were weak negatives that followed la nina...

winter.........DJF oni...

1956-57..........-0.2 and rising ...

1985-86..........-0.5...rising slowly...

2001-02..........-0.1...rising slowly...

2012-13..........-0.4 and steady...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/30/2018 at 2:17 AM, 33andrain said:

100” here we come! Great stats unc. 

 

 

This deserves a self imposed time out.....

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

This deserves a self imposed time out.....

Are you nominating yourself to run the IT side of things while I am out? Bout time you earned your keep!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Are you nominating yourself to run the IT side of things while I am out? Bout time you earned your keep!

 

Need a good winter , it`s been to long. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Need a good winter , it`s been to long. 

giphy.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4th  / Credit, BAM

 

Djcxc7iUYAAxsRs.jpg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Earth is rumbling bigly Boyz and going to be more frequent seismic activities as EQ and Volcanoes go boom. All tied to the Solar Minimum. Direct correlation between the two and at the minimum on the Grand Solar Minimum VEI of a 5 or 6 usually occur.

http://strangesounds.org/2018/08/22-volcanoes-actively-erupting-43-volcanoes-ongoing-eruptions-volcanic-unrest-worldwide.html

 
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The northern hemisphere is still running very warm relative to normal, on a monthly basis. The latest UAH satellite measurement indicated a value of +0.32c for July 2018, which - via eyeballing - is likely in the top 10 warmest July months in the data-set. In the means, there has certainly been a diminution of temperatures since the peak in 2016, but we need some further progression in order to approach near normal values.

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2018_v6.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Mugs -- the earthquake and volcanic activity we've seen in this solar minimum thus far haven't been outside the bounds of 1-2 standard deviations; fairly routine eruptions and earthquakes. However, you are correct that the protracted minimum will aid in mediating more frequent eruptions and earthquakes. As much as I'd love to see a VEI 5 event cool the globe, it is a very low probability event. Nonetheless, deep solar minima, particularly one like this (deepest since solar cycle 5), certainly invite an increased opportunity.

Tom says maybe!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

The northern hemisphere is still running very warm relative to normal, on a monthly basis. The latest UAH satellite measurement indicated a value of +0.32c for July 2018, which - via eyeballing - is likely in the top 10 warmest July months in the data-set. In the means, there has certainly been a diminution of temperatures since the peak in 2016, but we need some further progression in order to approach near normal values.

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2018_v6.jpg

 

7E6BCE6C-C41B-4863-B396-937316EE3FB4.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro Seasonals in 2017 were the opposite of this year's and resulted in a below average snowfall (at least for DC-Baltimore). They also show that this could be a snowy winter given the ESO. Here's a piece from Joe Bastardi; "The big SOI drop in the winter got me on a warpath for the coming year as to where the weather may go. While we will display this later, there is nothing I see in the European Seasonals this morning to discourage me in the least about speculation on that matter and in fact the opposite, It is really looking like its pointing the way for a blend of 2002,2006,2009,2014 and its a matter of weighting them, My ACE analog ideas would mean that perhaps looking at the relationship between hyper Pacific ACE vs quiet Atlantic may be something to throw in, but I am not nearly as acquainted with that as what I showed you last year with the opposite."

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/euro-seasonals-support-weatherbell-com-long-standing-winter-idea

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cole Baldwin said:

The Euro Seasonals in 2017 were the opposite of this year's and resulted in a below average snowfall (at least for DC-Baltimore). They also show that this could be a snowy winter given the ESO. Here's a piece from Joe Bastardi; "The big SOI drop in the winter got me on a warpath for the coming year as to where the weather may go. While we will display this later, there is nothing I see in the European Seasonals this morning to discourage me in the least about speculation on that matter and in fact the opposite, It is really looking like its pointing the way for a blend of 2002,2006,2009,2014 and its a matter of weighting them, My ACE analog ideas would mean that perhaps looking at the relationship between hyper Pacific ACE vs quiet Atlantic may be something to throw in, but I am not nearly as acquainted with that as what I showed you last year with the opposite."

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/euro-seasonals-support-weatherbell-com-long-standing-winter-idea

 

I don't think it is out yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh sorry it could be something else I still think it will be a relatively snowy winter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×