***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 4 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

Recommended Posts

 

18 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

I don't think it is out yet.

 

Oh sorry it could be something else I still think it will be a relatively snowy winter

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Mugs -- the earthquake and volcanic activity we've seen in this solar minimum thus far haven't been outside the bounds of 1-2 standard deviations; fairly routine eruptions and earthquakes. However, you are correct that the protracted minimum will aid in mediating more frequent eruptions and earthquakes. As much as I'd love to see a VEI 5 event cool the globe, it is a very low probability event. Nonetheless, deep solar minima, particularly one like this (deepest since solar cycle 5), certainly invite an increased opportunity.

Tom,

Thank you . From the charts I have read show the activity we are seeing in seismic activity (volcanoes and eq's) is growing.

John Casey in his writing and research point out that over the last 3-4 hundreds of years since 1630's(I know a small sample size over the period of time with solar minimums - Maunder, Dalton) but this is dating back to when Galileo (who I believe is the first to take notice of solar activity) starting collecting and charting such information. There have been 28 VEI 5 or greater such volcanoes in these solar minimum periods from 1650 on. True the chances are slim but I saw slim coming into town the other day looking to take up residence for  while LOL!!! EQ's as well. Time will tell.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Cole Baldwin said:

 

 

Oh sorry it could be something else I still think it will be a relatively snowy winter

 

No need to be sorry mate, they will be out very soon! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

I don't think it is out yet.

 

They are , Joe will release WED. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

They are , Joe will release WED. 

We'd support a mid-August JB post on 33andrain. ? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of people are saying the Winter of 2018-19 will be remembered for a suppressed storm track. Only question is...how far south that sets up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

We'd support a mid-August JB post on 33andrain. ? 

 

Friday....

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have the AUG EURO seasonal Dec/Jan/Feb 500 MB along with his forecast in front of me  A lot of people will be happy if that ever verified. 

Joe`s full analysis and winter forecast will be here sometime on Friday and he will be a regular this winter. 

 

For now , don`t leave the pool. 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I have the AUG EURO seasonal Dec/Jan/Feb 500 MB along with his forecast in front of me  A lot of people will be happy if that ever verified. 

Joe`s full analysis and winter forecast will be here sometime on Friday and he will be a regular this winter. 

 

For now , don`t leave the pool. 

Wow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still not available for me. Will post once I get them. I've been looking to do a bit of an August seasonal outlook too. Waiting for all of the ensembles to come in.

 

NMME tommorow.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The clear model bias is evident in the potential warmth vs cold this season. 2013-14 was a very cold and snowy winter and the NMME was showing warm and dry and the Pioneer model was showing cold and snowy and they were right on point. Pioneer vs NMME this year is Pioneer cold+snowy and NMME is warm+dry.

NMME Model 2013.png

Pioneer Model 2013-14 ACT ANO 2013-14.png

DJF 2018:19 Comparison.png

 

By: Joe D'Aleo, Weatherbell

https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/winters-and-model-biases

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Still not available for me. Will post once I get them. I've been looking to do a bit of an August seasonal outlook too. Waiting for all of the ensembles to come in.

 

NMME tommorow.

 

Hibb the trough begins in the east in October. ( cool and wet ) 

Slight WAR in Nov and then it's on. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Hibb the trough begins in the east in October. ( cool and wet ) 

Slight WAR in Nov and then it's on. 

Nice. I am less interested in that, more the world view and other teleconnections, as that is where the money lies. You need that for a decent seasonal forecast. But it still looks good direct regardless.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First Guess:

Nov - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

Dec- Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Jan - Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Feb - Temp: N  |  Precip:  N

Mar - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

 

Snowfall for selected cities:

NYC - 46"

BOS - 68"

PHL - 51"

DC - 32"

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

First Guess:

Nov - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

Dec- Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Jan - Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Feb - Temp: N  |  Precip:  N

Mar - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

 

Snowfall for selected cities:

NYC - 46"

BOS - 68"

PHL - 51"

DC - 32"

I'll sign for that. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×