***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 57 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

I say 40” or more 

I will be shocked if its anything less then 40"

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14 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I will be shocked if its anything less then 40"

@Isotherm is the best forecaster on the planet, and therefore, in the known universe. He sees the positive signs, believe you me. But as others have noted, and I am guilty of it from time to time as well, there's group think out there. Likely a bit more this year than most others. Lots of hyping. In my opinion, the hype is deserved. But, I don't blame Tom or others for taking an extra week or three before making a call. We know Tom takes his forecasts very seriously, so regardless of which way he goes, we know his call will be thorough [and laced with words we need to look up]. :D Should be out in the next week.

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7 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

@Isotherm is the best forecaster on the planet, and therefore, in the known universe. He sees the positive signs, believe you me. But as others have noted, and I am guilty of it from time to time as well, there's group think out there. Likely a bit more this year than most others. Lots of hyping. In my opinion, the hype is deserved. But, I don't blame Tom or others for taking an extra week or three before making a call. We know Tom takes his forecasts very seriously, so regardless of which way he goes, we know his call will be thorough [and laced with words we need to look up]. :D Should be out in the next week.

I agree he is good but like any forecaster/meteorologist out there they can be wrong from time to time. Just making that noted. 

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I agree he is good but like any forecaster/meteorologist out there they do can be wrong from time to time. Just making that noted. 

That goes without saying. :) 

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25 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

@Isotherm is the best forecaster on the planet, and therefore, in the known universe. He sees the positive signs, believe you me. But as others have noted, and I am guilty of it from time to time as well, there's group think out there. Likely a bit more this year than most others. Lots of hyping. In my opinion, the hype is deserved. But, I don't blame Tom or others for taking an extra week or three before making a call. We know Tom takes his forecasts very seriously, so regardless of which way he goes, we know his call will be thorough [and laced with words we need to look up]. :D Should be out in the next week.

 

This is the most hyped I've ever given to a winter forecast.

 

I believe this will end up being a top 10 winter in the last 50 years when it's all said and done.

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29 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

This is the most hyped I've ever given to a winter forecast.

 

I believe this will end up being a top 10 winter in the last 50 years when it's all said and done.

 

FD54231F-5DE4-42C0-9D70-067FD51E6AAD.gif

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9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

My # for KNYC this winter is 54. 

 

In talking with Bluewave he went back and pulled these #s which include many of the analog years that I have opined on over the last month in here.

 

200 % of N fits / and 

 

NYC

1981-2010....25.8......2010's......39.8....154%

 

02 -03 ...49.3...191% 

09-10...51.4.....199%

10-11...61.9.....240%

11-12.....7.4.....29%

12-13....26.1.....101%

13-14....57.4.....222%

14-15....50.3.....195%

15-16.....32.8....127%

16-17.....30.2....117%

17-18.....40.9....159%

 

02/03 09/10 13/14 14/15 are all years that fit / as for my top 10 in the last 50 years , if it makes this list I believe it will come close. 

Good guess. Better than mine.

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Just now, 33andrain said:

Good guess. Better than mine.

 

I don`t guess.

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Moving on , here are the Canadian weeklies guessing ? when the trough will return after the next warm up that is on it`s way.

 

I expect tonight`s Weeklies to bring the trough back into the east by months end.

 

 

mcmc_z500a_7d_nh_101(4)  CANADIAN ENSEMBLES - PART 1.png

mcmc_z500a_7d_nh_129(4) CANADIAN ENSEMBLES PART 2.png

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I think your snow total is too low altho I think you are seeing what I am seeing and are believing too much in climo (which is actually reasonable) versus what we are seeing unfold this year (when climo is increasingly irrelevant as the entire NHEM state is now hurtling towards something entirely different from pre-2012 weather). Look at those maps. Look at Quebec. And look at yearly precip totals up and down the seaboard. I think 02-03 etc are great analogs except this year the potential moisture is SO much higher based on how warm things are in GOM / ATL / Arctic / PAC and how COLD thing are to our north. 

 

Not only do our normal source regions have plenty of moisture, the incoming shortwaves over the Arctic should also be wetter than normal through winter (i.e. Alberta clippers etc) which amps potential of multiple 4-8" events in addition to MECS / HECS instead of our more normal regimen of less distributed totals. 

 

Another note: 95-96 beat the previous record by 20% when it occurred (63" vs 75). If we push that up by 20% again (a reasonable assumption) we get 90" as NYC's next "record" total for when it comes. IAD / etc have done similar things with their records -- when you get a new one, it isn't by a hair. 

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24 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Moving on , here are the Canadian weeklies guessing ? when the trough will return after the next warm up that is on it`s way.

 

I expect tonight`s Weeklies to bring the trough back into the east by months end.

 

 

mcmc_z500a_7d_nh_101(4)  CANADIAN ENSEMBLES - PART 1.png

mcmc_z500a_7d_nh_129(4) CANADIAN ENSEMBLES PART 2.png

Just in time for the very beginning of peak climo for snowstorms!

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13 minutes ago, Anastasia Beaverhausen said:

I think your snow total is too low altho I think you are seeing what I am seeing and are believing too much in climo (which is actually reasonable) versus what we are seeing unfold this year (when climo is increasingly irrelevant as the entire NHEM state is now hurtling towards something entirely different from pre-2012 weather). Look at those maps. Look at Quebec. And look at yearly precip totals up and down the seaboard. I think 02-03 etc are great analogs except this year the potential moisture is SO much higher based on how warm things are in GOM / ATL / Arctic / PAC and how COLD thing are to our north. 

 

Not only do our normal source regions have plenty of moisture, the incoming shortwaves over the Arctic should also be wetter than normal through winter (i.e. Alberta clippers etc) which amps potential of multiple 4-8" events in addition to MECS / HECS instead of our more normal regimen of less distributed totals. 

 

Another note: 95-96 beat the previous record by 20% when it occurred (63" vs 75). If we push that up by 20% again (a reasonable assumption) we get 90" as NYC's next "record" total for when it comes. IAD / etc have done similar things with their records -- when you get a new one, it isn't by a hair. 

 

I think forecasting 50 inches of snow in NYC is about as far as I can stretch myself here without people thinking I`ve lost it.

 

If we ever get 90 inches of snow in NYC , let me go on record believing it probably will not be forecast by many in the year it happens.

 

Everyone on this board would love nothing more for that day to come , but forecasting that much snow is like saying the Yankees are going to throw up a 20 spot on a particular night  and although anything is possible but it`s probably not a good bet. 

 

But , good luck and trust me , we are all hoping you hit the lottery here. 

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12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I think forecasting 50 inches of snow in NYC is about as far as I can stretch myself here without people thinking I`ve lost it.

 

If we ever get 90 inches of snow in NYC , let me go on record believing it probably will not be forecast by many in the year it happens.

 

Everyone on this board would love nothing more for that day to come , but forecasting that much snow is like saying the Yankees are going to throw up a 20 spot on a particular night , anything is possible but it`s probably not a good bet. 

 

But , good luck and trust me , we are all hoping you hit the lottery here. 

It is not good. Why do you think totals have doubled in 15 years? I have the answer!

As sea ice melts to oblivion NHEM redistributes cryospheric balance to the continents (moisture, warm oceans, cold continents). The % of the NHEM cryospheric balance contained in continental snowpack has also doubled since the early 2000s. Is this a coincidence? I do not think so. 

 

In any case, as we move forward, this will only get worse. We should see another doubling in totals but it will probably take another 10 years instead of 15 as things are seemingly accelerating. NYC has matched this trend to a tee and I see no reason why it won't as we head into the 2020s. 

 

(FYI: early years in the 2000s had about 1,100 KM^3 of accumulated SWE as of "peak winter". 2018 had 1,600 KM^3 accumulated in North America by early April.)

 

Early 2000s had about 27,000KM^3 of sea ice volume in April. 2018 had 22,000KM^3. 

 

27,000/1,000-800 = 3-4% of cryosphere. (April early 2000s)

22,000/1,600 = 7.2% of cyrosphere. (April 2018)

 

What happens as volume continues to decline on the same path we have been on? It isn't good. The % of the cryosphere depositing as SWE on land is only growing. And its rate of increase has matched NYC's accumulations (funny enough, DC and PHL etc have been slower -- wonder if that has anything to do with why the glacial ablation zone was to their north in the Last Glacial Maximum / the 40N trend since 02-03). 

 

Yes, this is good for us as we love snow, but I think it portends winters *consistently* hitting 60-80" totals in the 2020s with our first year of many impending 100"+ snow totals set for ~2030. By that point, glaciers should be rapidly advancing across Quebec and Boston will probably be verging on or already uninhabitable. Summers? LOL. Fuhgettaboutit. 


And you wonder why GRRM hasn't released his last book? Winter is coming 4realz. 

 

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Can`t ask for much better , 

 

 

ecmwf_seasonal_201811_qpfa_DJF  NOV 2018 EURO PRECIP.png

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i Love December / Weeklies in T - 1:45

 

 

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This does not make sense with the weeklies 500.

eps_qpf_168h_wpac_7.png

eps_qpf_168h_wpac_8.png

eps_qpf_168h_wpac_9.png

eps_qpf_168h_wpac_12.png

eps_qpf_168h_cpac_9.png

eps_qpf_168h_cpac_11.png

 

eps_qpf_168h_cpac_12.png

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Sinking air in the I/O and UW out west of 180 promotes a trough in the east. 

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The AMO (at least based on short term, sometimes volatile trends) appears to be going more positive, esp the far Northern Atlantic, which enhances ridging and wave activity in that area, causing more and longer lasting -NAO events since it tends to tilt the playing field a bit in favor of -NAOs. 

 

 

natlssta.png

catlssta.png

mdrssta (1).png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1 (1).png

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