***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 20 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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Fantasy range, but still emphasizes the coming pattern change. Yesterday, we had our first run of the Weeklies really showing snowfall across much of the area. I am 100% on board with a measurable snowfall this season in November, though I think this is a hair too early. Around Thanksgiving though...possible.

 

Mean

eps_sno_1104_ma_185.png

 

Control

eps_sno_c_1104_ma_185.png

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44 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Does anyone have the Euro NINO 1+2 forecast for October?

I've seen October 3.4 on twitter but the public site has yet to be updated. (I still see Sept.)

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I haven't seen the full EC Seasonal run properly, but it looks like a -AO with high latitude blocking. And a very strong -EPO and Aleutian Low combo. Can't say I'm too keen on the latter, given boundary conditions in Aleutian Sea region. -NAO, with strong Atlantic jetstream. Seems fairly solid, but there's several things that EC has gone too far on. And that's all without seeing the Niño region, however I acknowledge the bump in Niño 3.4. Better for Modoki, but wanna see 1.2 to check if it is a basin wide or not, at the very least.

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On 10/4/2018 at 4:02 PM, 33andrain said:

Need to cool off 1+2 quite a bit...but certainly nice to see the warmer SSTs in the CPAC.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Just keep that water cold in the Indian Ocean and the MJO will rotate thru 8 1 2 more often than not. 

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On 8/7/2018 at 9:18 AM, 33andrain said:

First Guess:

Nov - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

Dec- Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Jan - Temp: BN  |  Precip:  AN

Feb - Temp: N  |  Precip:  N

Mar - Temp: AN  |  Precip:  BN

 

Snowfall for selected cities:

NYC - 46"

BOS - 68"

PHL - 51"

DC - 32"

This was my thinking August 7th. Wouldn’t make too many changes today. I can see us having a solid early Feb, but I think the number of factors working against us (e.g., QBO reversal, warmer than expected SSTs in the EPAC) will be a bit much to overcome by mid-month. I’m not as sold on the Modoki because I’m not seeing enough evidence of region 1+2 cooling at this time, even sub-surface. 

 

I’ll put out my final call on October 15th which will include date ranges for our biggest snow events. 

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Interesting to see the update this week onNino Regions

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6

 

1.2 Volatile as a puberty teen!

nino12.png

 3.4 Warming due to SOI crashing

 

nino34.png

 

wkxzteq_all.gif

sstanim.gif

Low SOLAR

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day 
2018 total: 159 days (57%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 06 Oct 2018

 

Some good indicators here.

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The literal only winter indicator I’m uneasy about right now is ENSO state; specifically region 1+2 SSTs. Could have substantial implications if we have a more basin wide weak to moderate event. 

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4 minutes ago, amugs said:

Interesting to see the update this week onNino Regions


                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6

 

1.2 Volatile as a puberty teen!

nino12.png

 3.4 Warming due to SOI crashing

 

nino34.png

 

wkxzteq_all.gif

sstanim.gif

Low SOLAR

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day 
2018 total: 159 days (57%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 06 Oct 2018

 

Some good indicators here.

 

I am really a fan of a Modiki developing and that's going to center the best upward motion out near the DL.

 

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I am really a fan of a Modiki developing and that's going to center the best upward motion out near the DL.

 

If we verify with a Modoki nino I’ll just say it now...top 10 winter. Quite possibly top 5. 

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I am really a fan of a Modiki developing and that's going to center the best upward motion out near the DL.

 

PB,

 

I concur with your thoughts and reason being looking at the SOI and the pattern set up along with the SST west of Aussie land and the warmer waters to its east - MJO forcing like last winter should force in that region of 8,1,2,3 as you have stated.

 

In my post above I am just sharing what the CPC and Indexes are like and time to go here but liking these indicators overall so far. GWO and AAM I have not looked at recently but it would be interesting to see what state and forecast they are headed in.

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On 10/5/2018 at 11:02 AM, 33andrain said:

Does anyone have the Euro NINO 1+2 forecast for October?

 

NINO1.2nino12Seaadj.gif

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