***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 22 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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WOW this mornings news...

 

Image result for happy meme

 

Snow and Brooklyn checking in with great information.

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47 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

 

With Kara Sea Ice very low at the moment, looks good as another factor for -AO forcing.

 

During winter, the forcing looks less clear-cut. In theory, warm SSTs occuring would already mean that the Arctic is warmer than average, which would mean a -AO is already in place. Ice cover does encourage the albedo effect however, which means a high could take place. Which of course could be very cold, and still push troughs south into the mid lats. Interesting stuff....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seeing you bullish on Winter hits me right here...

800px_COLOURBOX3420686.jpg

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@brooklynwx99

 

Being from CA I really like what you have shown. ?

I hope this analog doesn't change.

1998 combined with almost any other two +ENSO DJF will give one a look that is in the ballpark as above.

If what you're analogging is a west based Nino that acts like an east based Nino, then bring it.

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7 minutes ago, Armando S said:

but you can't not like where we're heading going forward. 

tenor.gif

Almost had me fooled for a sec.

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Jesus Armando on board the Winter Train too - WOOOT WOOT!!

 

Related image

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Looks like everything is leading to -EPO/-AO blocking with intervals of -NAO blocking. I’ll take it although I know things will change 

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9 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Seeing you bullish on Winter hits me right here...

800px_COLOURBOX3420686.jpg

It feels like it's all coming into place. All the factors I need are tipping the scales. Really only one thing I am not sure about, the Aleutian Low.

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negative ao/nao el nino Decembers...mostly Positive ao/nao el nino Decembers...

 

-a0-nao el nino dec.png

+ao+nao dec el nino.png

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13 hours ago, uofmiami said:

 

Wow. Scary seeing most guidance and most forecasters in agreement on this Winter. The problem is...the literal best forecaster on the planet has yet to weigh in.

@Isotherm. :( 

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15 hours ago, uncle w said:

negative ao/nao el nino Decembers...mostly Positive ao/nao el nino Decembers...

 

-a0-nao el nino dec.png

+ao+nao dec el nino.png

1997-98 had a slightly neg ao December and a good neg nao...it turned out to be the coldest month of that winter...NYC did much better in neg ao/nao years...

The first nine coldest el nino Decembers had a negative ao/nao...most of the rest had a positive ao/nao...

December temperature, snowfall, NDJ ONI, Dec. AO NAO

1958..........29.4...............3.8"..........0.6..........-1.687....-0.70

1976..........29.9...............5.1"..........0.7..........-2.074....-1.60

1963..........31.2.............11.3"..........1.0..........-1.178....-1.92

1969..........33.4...............6.8"..........0.6..........-1.856....-0.28

1968..........34.3...............7.0"..........0.9..........-0.783....-1.40

1977..........35.7...............0.4"..........0.7..........-0.240....-1.00

2009..........35.9.............12.4"..........1.3..........-3.413....-1.93

2002..........36.0.............11.0"..........1.1..........-1.592....-0.94

 

1997..........38.3................T.............2.3..........-0.071....-0.96

1951..........38.4...............3.3"..........0.6...........1.987.....1.32

2004..........38.4...............3.0"..........0.7...........1.230.....1.21

1972..........38.5................T.............1.9...........1.238.....0.19

1986..........39.0...............0.6"..........1.1...........0.060.....0.99

1987..........39.5...............2.6"..........1.1..........-0.534.....0.32

1991..........39.6...............0.7"..........1.4...........1.613.....0.46

1957..........40.2...............8.7"..........1.6...........0.828.....0.12

1965..........40.5................T.............1.5...........0.163.....1.37

2014..........40.5...............1.0"..........0.6...........0.413.....1.86

1979..........41.1...............3.5"..........0.6...........1.295.....1.00
1953..........41.3................T.............0.7...........0.575....-0.47

1994..........42.2................T.............1.0...........0.894.....2.02

1982..........42.8...............3.0"..........2.1...........0.967.....1.78

2006..........43.6................T.............1.0...........2.282.....1.34

2015..........50.8................T.............2.6...........1.786.....2.24

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11 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Wow. Scary seeing most guidance and most forecasters in agreement on this Winter. The problem is...the literacy best forecaster on the planet has yet to weigh in.

@Isotherm. :( 

:evillaugh:

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