***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 27 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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World Wide Daily Snow and Ice Cover Map

 

BUILDING in OH CANADA!!

 

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8 hours ago, amugs said:

JAMSTEC BOYS ROCKTOBER Forecast Much Colder overall for CONUS from Sept Run below

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

 

BASIN WIDE EAST/ CENTRAL BASED NINO

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

 

BUT LOOK AT THE CONVECTION!

Doesn't add up if you ask me. This should be more central and east based no with the SST being where they are positioned?

tprep.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

FOR COMPARISON SEPT:

tprep.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

 

 

 

October is warming up IO and Maritime area quite a bit??  I don't get the SST vs PRate I'm baffled by the big change in temp across CONUS. This model has coughed up a hairball before. This might be one of them

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19 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

And as promised, my first real proper winter forecast on the blog.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

 

A good hard look into all the things we have been talking about here and on the Tele thread, and making some conclusions based upon that.

 

An abstract of my forecast. Full Link for the explanation and the 500mb anomalies map that I have produced down the bottom.

 

Hibbo says yes!

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Wow. It is interesting because I believe February has the highest bust potential this winter. Could be a much AN temps month in the end but with a chance of a major pattern changing make or break KU storm the first week or so. Could be +4 or +5 but with 20+” of snow. My official call coming out soon. 

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Wow. It is interesting because I believe February has the highest bust potential this winter. Could be a much AN temps month in the end but with a chance of a major pattern changing make or break KU storm the first week or so. Could be +4 or +5 but with 20+” of snow. My official call coming out soon. 

 

Feb is my biggest month.  

 

I am using Feb of 03 10 and 15 here.

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@Snowy Hibbo, Zac -- great disquisition and presentation of your ideas. Enjoyed the read; thanks for sharing. I think we can all concur that we hope you verify!

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32 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I have a few general thoughts of commentary:

 

1. The low-sea ice mediated amplification of subsequent Arctic blocking appears to be a weak argument from my standpoint; the vast majority of fall/warm seasons have featured subnormal sea-ice, so how can one differentiate the trend from an actual, robust, statistically significant signal? Otherwise, every year portends blocking because Arctic sea ice has generally been lower than normal for quite a protracted time.

 

2. The atmospheric-oceanic disconnect - which Zac actually alluded to in his essay - is salient to note. We have seen a not insignificant FT/MT spike over the past week; the ineluctable consequences of which are rising tendencies of angular momentum; but, GWO has [to date] remained displaced from canonical Nino-esque phases, and the step-wise pattern seems to continue to indicate occasional Nina-esque predilection to the atmospheric regime. Low-frequency forcing and the attendant Nino-induced walker cell alteration has been very much delayed. A cursory examination of walker cell orientation/CHI forcing suggests a rather Nina-esque regime over the preceding 30-day period. Now, that should change, in theory, over the coming weeks. But it's something I'm monitoring closely, as an oceanic Nino w/ atmospheric Nina-esque propensities will have disparate effects from an oceanic-atmospherically coupled Nino.

 

3. The positive NAO this October is an auspicious signal for winter blocking. 

 

4. The assertion of some guidance to intensify the ENSO event into mod-strong Nino is likely apocryphal. If the JAMSTEC were to verify, a 2015-16-esque pattern would develop. I continue to think the peak ONI will be weak Nino.

 

5. Strong, persistent high-latitude blocking is still not a given this winter, contrary to what many long-term models indicate. The interminable +NAO era wherein we experienced virtually no -NAO days throughout the entire winter is likely over, however. This isn't exactly an aggressive call; it's actually a safe call, really. But the persistent, unabated +AO/NAO couplet is unlikely this year. 

 

6. I'm not yet convinced that this is as good a winter as some sources purport in the East due to indeterminate aspects of the atmosphere forcing tendencies, as well as blocking duration and persistence uncertainties, especially in the Arctic/Atlantic. This upcoming period up through early November carries the most weight as far as incorporation into my NAO forecast, and the blocking forecast in general.

 

Bottom line: much to consider again this year! And with weak ENSO, I don't think anyone should feel as if this winter is a slam-dunk forecast one way or another.

 

 

When will you release your winter outlook?

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5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

@dmillz25, I typically like to wait until the second week of November; targeting November 7th-10th right now.

Nice, look forward to reading it

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13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

@dmillz25, I typically like to wait until the second week of November; targeting November 7th-10th right now.

Thanks for the update Tom!  Hoping for a good one this year. 

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